Your Morning Inspiration
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006
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42 comments:
With the housing data finally pounding itself into the bulls' thick heads, I think we are going to see some good action today.
Dow -34 and counting
-54 and counting
Now Dow -36. I still don't see much down action here.
Yes, the housing numbers threw a wrench at the longs, but after a quick selloff, it looks like they're floating the markets back up.
Dow up 20 points off its lows, Naz up 4 points off its lows.
I still don't see any significant action either way. I find it hard to imagine a bullish scenario developing from this point, but then again, the bears aren't doing squat, either.
The sellers and shorts need to get serious about pushing the markets down before we see any real movement. Otherwise, it's just a sideways drift until something significant happens.
(Still haven't covered my shorts)
-Tony
-34 on the dow it could weaken and drop to -50 within the hour. Not much buying going on. Housing sector is just horrible. I see another 15%-25% correction in the homebuilders and prices of houses coming down another 5-8% by the end of 2006 and another 10-12% by the end of 2007
Trader 2006
-50? Doesn't seem like it right now.
Now Dow is only down -28 and climbing.
My guess is that the indices will end the day in the green, as crazy as that may sound. The sellers have turned off the faucets as of 11:15 AM. Now they just aren't selling, period.
Doesn't matter how few buyers there are. If the sellers aren't selling, then the prices go up, even on the ultra-low volume that we're seeing today.
Now that all the buying has been done (last week), all that's left is for the folks who are HOLDING the shares to step back and continue to hold them until the buyers eventually pick them up higher.
-Tony
It's Wednesday. Despite repeated emails, these still haven't been fixed (and it's not like these are two-bit stock charts...they're INDEX charts):
Bad data alert:
$SOX...almost every candle since July 24 is wrong. August 7 missing entirely (to see how wrong, put up 3 month StockCharts, BigCharts, etc. beside Prophet $SOX. Emailed them over the W/E, again today.(Note that the SMH chart is fine.)
$VIX...June 8 values wrong.
$VXN...June 29 (big spike)wrong, according to CBOE data (Yahoo is wrong also).
Just went long on RTH, not worried since I have the 2 big guys SDS and QID backing me up.
Dont worry guys im still bearish!!
Trader 2006
Some of you folks absolutely kill me. When market is rock'n and heading up, you guys short like crazy and said the top is in.
When the market is finally heading down you are doubting the decline.
Unreal....
A complete opposite of what you should be doing.
the trader II
trader II your talking about my position in RTH?
You went bearish last week??? or yesterday?
By the way im for a quick trade on RTH, its down from $94.50 just 4 days ago. Looking to sell on a bounce back to $92.50. Im not worried when I hold 2 NICE positions in QID and SDS.
Trader 2006
looks like $indu bounced off 11,275, a fib retracement. I WANT the market to break, but looks like it's heading higher, and I hate to say it.
9:50am it will break. Just give it time. We might get another run but i wouldnt worry. There is no catalyst to take it higher. The housing boom is OVERRRRR, where do you think consumers were getting all that nice green to go and spend spend spend. Consumers make up 2/3 of this economy and with a slowing housing sector forget about the economy doing any better in year then what its doing today.
Trader 2006
By the way Ford is up today on a possible alliance, should we short it back to $7.50. I THINK SO.
Trader 2006
dow will end -225....hopefully everyone is short.
Trader 2006,
No i'm not talking about you. I was pointing to Tony's post. I existed all my longs yesterday morning and bought October & December DIA puts. Look'n good so far. Stop if Dow takes out 11,400.
The Trader II
Trader II the market does look weak, might see a small rally but im counting that out as the day comes to a close, oil is dropping like a ride, almost down $2.00 on the day. WILL buy some USO under $64.00
Trader 2006
re:PEIX
long at 15 and change, stopped out at 19.61. About a 30% gain. Small position but a win's a win.
Naz tried to break above resistance 4 times since last Thursday and was turned away. Now it tried support 3 times at 2140 and it broke below today. If it closes below that area on decent volume, it measures to 2114 plus opens the way to fill all those gaps from a week ago Monday.
bsi87 (DXD,SDS,SH,HPQ,SMH,PFE,OIH short, long BMY,bonds)
do your own homework
A lot of stocks in my watchlist are giving out sell signals (slow stochastics signal line crossing, and dipping below 80). But the MACD lines are trending upwards. The stock prices were in a downtrend from May, but broke the trendline in last week's rally. I was thinking of short-selling on this rise, because I think the downtrend will continue.
Can any of the experienced people here give their opinion on this - would they short in this situation?
Learning to Trade
bsi i saw smh rally to 33 today, i was completely baffled then the selloff came, i think if the markets were showing nice gains smg would have rallied back to $33.50+....good short.
Trader 2006
-55
lets see if the bring in the afternoon pumps, as the market seems to be deflating.
ES getting very close to my target at 1291. Short term traders should start taking profits here.
The Trader II
of course a down market as soon as i decide to nibble on the long side. hahaha thanks to me guys we have a falling market.
Good to see my SDS and QID deep in the green
Trader 2006.
i doubled my QID at 66.93 Im starting to feel kinda sexy!Bought MOT puts on monday.Its a good feeling when the patience starts to pay off. im short on Mot as well. im hoping for a slow grind down, but this market could have a 80 point plus day on thursday. who knows?? going with the FLOW! good luck to the traders. Chris
Yes, the indices are down, but with the way they've been trading lately, I don't discount any possibility.
Don't get me wrong, I'm pleased to see the indices in the red today. But the volume is still pretty pathetic and the news today has been bearish, so it's not unusual to see the market respond like this.
The real question is whether or not the markets will rally tomorrow on the durable goods data. It's happened before, and especially after a day like today, people may be looking to "buy the dips" if the data is good.
Still looking for 11,250 or 11,100 on the Dow, 2100 on the Naz, and 1280 on the S&P before covering any shorts.
-Tony
Not selling QID until it touches somewhere above $75+++ SDS however may get rid of it around $70-70.50.
Markets look like they may be ready to drop straight into the close, possible triple digit loss would just take all the jolly out of this market. Ha
Trader 2006
the whole volume thing i think should be left alone, cnbc for days has been talking about light volume due to the summer. 1 billion shares today is nothing??????? 2-3 years ago the avg summer volume was 800-1billion.
cnbc doing a segment on ETFs should be interesting, wonder if they will mention the Proshares???
Trader 2006
Dow just hit 11264. Close enough. Won't be surprise if the shorts cover hard into the close with durable goods number. Noone wants to get caught again with con con nubmers.
The Trader II
oh yea durable goods is going to be a big number, a definite market mover.
Still bumping against that Fib at 11,275 level on DOW. Today's close or tomorrow's open will be interesting!
It'll be interesting to see what IBD sez if the Naz closes down 1% or more. Russell down 1.5%.
The time to short was last Thursday near the close or last Friday near the close. Not now.
And it's not time to press bets. I had shorts that were green with 2% gain and Pffft! they're in the red.
Nice thing on Etrade is the conditional trade with a trailing stop, set a goal with a trailing stop and as the stock moves down, your stop moves. I'm sure other brokers have it but it's nice.
bsi87
right on the money PB!!! I shorted BRCM at the close on friday at 30 and had to cover at 29.20 to lock in the gains. Too bad, could not hold on to the shorts.
I'm being really patient here....and didn't get involved today. after doing a small trade in the SPY puts..... I'm in all cash. Look at volume today...... I'm not doing anything until after labour day (canadian spelling;)).
The markets won't plummet heavily in the next two weeks...... not enough volume on the downside.... look at today. Housing data was disgusting and the markets are holding up.......on light volume to the downside.
Patience...... it would be easy for the hedgies/institutions to run it up to test the high.......
I've got some good gains this year and I want to preserve them..... so i'm sitting tight until it gets easier.
Theres def more downside left. I wouldn't get too happy about whats going on though. Looks like about 10 or so points down on the spx, and I'll probably look at buying more longs - well, I'll buy longs if 1280 looks stable.
trader II, the reason why everyone is shorting on the way up is becuase we are all bears and we think everything is overvalued??. And on the flip side, we don't think we'll see more red after a few days of red, BECAUSE WE ARE IN A BULL MARKET!
Someone had posted about stocastics crossing. Mine did yesterday? And MACD (which I follow a little more religiously... is starting the flatten, and head back down.
For whomever the poster is, I find the MACD a little more right on the money in testing if markets are going up/or break. If I look at the QQQQ's for example (I love the QQQQ's can't you tell???), I zoom out to a 3yr/weekly graph, the MACD has made its postive crossover, and this has been accurate for most part of the last three years.
At the same time, I look for divergences between MACD highs/lows and price patterns. Conflicting info means somethings going to happen. And harmony, of course, means all good in da hood.
Hope that helps the new guys here.
If you are short, i would be very carefull here. Anyone that haven't took profit yet when ES hit 1291.75 should have their stops in place.
The Trader II
Quattrone legal deal clears him for
$120,000,000
Thats disgusting. How much money does one need.
These firms grossly overpay individuals. Sometimes bonuses north of 7 figures.
Just as expected. The problem isn't the manipulators or the MM or the market. The problem with this market are the bears. What a scramble, the put to call ratio are pinned all day above 1. We got one more big leg up.
I don't know about another leg up. I do see the p/c ratio jump which tempers any down move. But I think what is worth noting is the Brazil/emerging mkt activity and the Russell 2000. I know big cap value has jumped but that's the last refuge of scoundrels. (Grin) But it's what you don't see that kills you. The threat may be some overseas mkts seizing up like Thailand in '98. I remember watching the Far East open on Sunday nites to see if they were melting down.
If the growth stocks are leading, I doubt the value stocks can hold up for long. JMO.
bsi87
Love Mike Kahn.
http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB115628609656542680-9t_wh1EOe8i9aEiKwgNLEYkijT0_20070823.html?mod=9_0002_b_online_exclusives_weekday_r1
bsi87
Despite the down day, the last hour buy-in did draw more volume.
Theres still some red left, according to my trusty handy-dandy MACD. I could mos def see some bullish-ness in the morning tomorrow based on the last hour volume when the markets were starting to recover...
Bsi
"Either the Nasdaq will reverse its breakdown and the whole market rallies or the S&P 500 will follow with a breakdown of its own and the whole market falls.
The disparity in trend between the two cannot last forever"
Interesting. Anyone in here will suggest the s&p following its breakdown bringing the entire market back down. 1280 is key support mentioned by a few in here. Also heard about the "W" formation. The "W" formation would occur at SPX 1220 and that would be great for bears and just horrible for bulls.
anon 4:19
I vote for a breakdown since the Russell 2000 looks like crap. When they raid the cathouse, they take the bad AND the good girls. So the SPX will follow in due time
However most everything looks like it's nontrending so we'll see these up 5%, down 5% rallies/selloffs and endless bull/bear fights which mean zip since the condition is nontrending. No reason to double down either way.
bsi87
IBD's take
...The Nasdaq closed 0.7% lower after making up some lost ground in the final hour. The S&P 500 shed 0.4% and the NYSE composite 0.5%.
Nasdaq volume declined 7%, remaining well below average. NYSE volume increased a nearly imperceptible 0.2%....For the session to reach the level of distribution, volume would have to be obviously heavier. That would reflect intense selling on the part of big institutions, the market's main drivers.
Still, the market's weakness hit smaller stocks harder. The small-cap S&P 600 tumbled 1.4%. Top-rated companies also fell more than the big-cap averages. The IBD 100 shed 1.2%
Last week's high-volume gains showed institutional money went into stocks. So far, institutions — so pivotal to the market's success — appear to be content with the current state of affairs.
However, the rally has not produced a bumper crop of high-performance stocks at attractive buy points...
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