What a Week.....
The week started with hand-wringing and anticipation about the Fed's announcement on Tuesday. By the end of the week, terrorist fears had people asking "Bernanke who?" It seems like a hundred years ago already.
I've been bellyaching a lot, but I've actually had six profitable days back-to-back, so I guess I should cheer up. I remain confounded at the market's curiously positive reaction to the horrible terror threat, but Friday seemed a little more in touch with reality.
We haven't looked at the Dow 30 in a few days. This is a bit of a wider field. Not much has changed here. The golden number is still 10,660. We can't really start to take over earth until this is broken. Until then, we're just kind of jerking around.
The S&P, like the MidCap and the Russell 2000, is at a bit of a juncture right now, although it seems to be tipping downward. I actually - gasp - bought a bunch of MidCap calls (yes, calls) early today, but I dumped 'em at a loss later when it was clear no rally was going to take place. Things are still mushy, slightly favoring the intelligensia (da bears).
The gold & silver index finally started weaknening again. If this starts to gather speed, it'll be terrific, because this could shape up into a marvelous downward pattern.
Starting with Bed, Bath, and Beyond, here's a slate of cool looking short possibilities. I've got 80 - yes, I can hardly believe it myself - 80 different positions. Out of these 80, 80 are bearish and 0 are bullish. So I guess you can say I've got a slight bearish disposition.
BBBY:
BBD:
CERN:
CME:
DNR (what a ticker symbol, eh?):
HAL:
HLX:
MBT:
SPG:
UBB:
Hope you have a good weekend and don't waste it on something as lowbrow as a golf game. Ta-ta...........
46 comments:
DNR (what a ticker symbol, eh?):
Tim, are you a displaced Canadian
eh?
great blog by the way
Golf? Putt Putt & a 6 pack OK?
I'm not a displaced Canadian. But some of my best engineers are! Plus I thought SCTV wsa brilliant.
Tim,
Could you please tell us about the screening criteria that you use to find puts?
Thanks,
Ray
Tim,
what time frame are you using on the charts you are posting?
time to face some reality. the ppt will not allow the market to drop some 500 points ( to approxmately 10600 ). the m3 is no longer reported, why? because inflation results from too much money being printed. the dollar is weakened and thus more dollars are required to produce products.
we have a goldman sachs sec treasury (paulson) who will manipulate the market using the liquidity provided by the now hidden m3.
ta is meaningless in this environment.
show me a chart that moniters manipulation and i'll take a second look. till then you are all pizzing in the wind.
john
Tim,
I know you used options as your trading vehicle. I have very good results reading charts, but I seldom make money using options, mostly due to time decay or simply the options did not move as much as the stock... delta. I hope you can tell me, if you were to enter straight PUT or CALL, do you buy ITM or OTM and how many months to expiry do you buy?
Hope you can share your ideas.
To answer some questions that came up in this comments section:
+ The puts I buy are in the money, sometimes substantially so, and are at least two months out. Sure, it takes some of the thrill of the volatility out, but it sure does hold up better over time.
+ My criteria for finding trades is strictly based on the chart. I have a stable of about 240 charts I look at every day, and from time to time I'll run a scan to smoke out any I've missed. I like volatile, high-priced items that have had a major ascent in price.
+ As for the time frame, I used to use 5 year daily, but I've become enamored with 10 year daily recently since it incorporates the last bubble and the subsequent burst.
bsi87,
well, we could start with the GATA lawsuit.
just seems like there are many ill-looking charts that are defying gravity.
market is up on bad news, etc., etc.
I have puts and calls in place. Long on oil, short naz sand spx, and watching gold.
If, when Iraq enters the mideast turmoil ( or we invade ) then these positions should be strong.
what are your thoughts on why the m3 is no longer reported?
john
sorry, meant to "when Iran enters the mideast turmoil..."
I miss Hurricane5... where has he gone? Bankruptcy court, perhaps?
"BUt i also, like playing jr. economist so here is my two cents: who can argue with this guy, he is worth about 400mm, Master of Wall Street, see what he has to say:
""
Well of course Paulson will say that as he unloads 300 million in GS stock., LOL
bsi87: I see that you closed your DXD, SDS, and QID positions. Are you planning to go long on the indices, or are you just sitting on the sidelines for a while?
My positions in those ETFs are still open. I am sitting on maybe a 2-3% gain on them as of Friday, so perhaps I should consider closing them as well.
I've read a few technical sites that are calling for a net gain in the indices this week. Not so much a "rally", but more of a slow drift upwards. A "gain in the absence of bad news", I guess.
-Tony
Great blog, love the interaction, but 80 positions? With all due respect, that's just nuts. Generally better overall profits are achieved from a handful of carefully selected and monitored positions, IMHO.
Dont worry about " the great one" he does okay! You got the nuts part right,very large ones! Chris
trader,
last I checked the DOW was never above 11k 2-3 years back. Even NASDAQ is not down that much compared to 2-3 years.
-Jay Mac
Holy crap. Is it my imagination, or is XOM ready to come down at least 10%??
Looks like it needs to retest the $64 level at the VERY least.
I've always refrained from shorting energy stocks, but XOM just looks like it's hanging out there in no-man's land.
-Tony
we will bounce hard monday and fade throughout the day...the bears will prevail...
Holy crap. Is it my imagination, or is XOM ready to come down at least 10%??
----------------------------------
Just because it's one of the few that is still showing strength, you surmise it's ready to come down at least 10%? It's rarely wise to target a stock as a great short simply because it's up a lot. XOM may correct with the sector if it shows further weakness, but not based on the chart now. Look for the bearish setups, the stocks starting to break support on heavy volume. Shorting something just because it's making new highs is the same as trying to catch a falling knife in reverse. Wait for signs of weakness, then test the waters. If all goes well, add in as your position is confirmed.
Stock futures are up huge.....
I'm 100% cash right now and have had a run and gun approach that has worked for me.......
TOmorrow morning the market will be up tomorrow aft people will run because the PPI and CPI numbers are coming out....
bsi,
thanks for your reply.
i don't think i am a conspiracy adovocate, but i do know that the market is exhibiting some odd behavior given the world situation. john crudle of the NY Post has found evidence that the ppt is supporting the market which makes it difficult to look at charts and enter into positions with confidence ( and if you are not confident then why enter into positions )?
in a nutshell: we are attempting to deal with a market that is "artificial" so to speak. the lack of M3 reporting is disturbing to me. you seem to be bright and successful, but i ask again, why do you thing the M3 is no longer being reported, or is this a meaningles s question?
my pov is that oil will reach $100 per barrel due to the mideast situation and world geopolitical instability ( N. Korea ). Gold will rise to new heights,
and in general we are all screwed because China and India are the new financial frontiers.
Jesse Livermore made a bear fortune then blew his brains out in a
hotel bathroom stall.
other than that i am an optimistic guy just trying to keep his head above water. i admit i have not been too successful but this due to my disregard of risk management and that's my mea culpa.
looking forward to your future posts.
john
bsi87 :: Helicopter Ben admitted to the existance of the PPT in the last appearance in front of congress. Who else pumps money into the market on the day that it is reported 15 planes were to crash into the ocean.
Check out the airlines the day before the release of that news think someone had advance warning?
Phucking GAP OPEN. better get filled to the down side. Bears CANT get a break. Maybe tomorrow inflation will send the market into a panic. Im going to poke my bear eyeballs out. this market cannot get any MOMO either way. Agh. phuck it.
mornings not doing so bad right now, gotta see what happens after lunch, huge gap into the morning really not showing all the much follow through except on the Dow, want to see more strength from the Naz, but overall not bad. CPI and PPI still a concerning factor
bsi87
link to article where Bernanke responds to questions about the PPT.
www.gata.org/node/4278
Bear market? WHAT bear market??
This is just more absurdity in the markets. The price of oil goes down a buck and the Dow goes up 100 points. And the Naz is up 1.5%. Uh, right.
More Market Manipulation Madness (MMMM)
im just carefully watching todays action into the close, could possible be the last hoorah or the start of a real breakout for the next leg up. so many red flags make it hard to believe it, and you know when its to good to be true it probably is.
if we close into the middle of todays range on higher volume than the last two days then im leaning toward negative inflationary numbers. I still do not like where the rest of the markets at right now to go long. still need basing in alot of areas and the Dow and S&P to catch up to more attractive buying levels.
You just gotta love it when the major indices erase THREE STRAIGHT days of selling (on pretty good volume) with ONE single day of nonsensical bullishness.
Should have covered on Friday with my 2-3% gain with my short ETFs and just walked away. Now I'm sitting on a loss.
Unreal.
-Tony
read some good articles that bring to light the rising costs of labor, and the tight labor market, may be some more inflationary pressures forming other than oil, which could read into higher inflationary numbers excluding energy, and if energy prices ease , then still relatively high oil prices will maintain inflation, with pressures from wage inflation. energy stock rolling over at this point is not good for the market.
What does PPT stand for ?
I'm just starting to read the the
site and can infer that it is
involved in the M3 and money
supply.Thanks to anyone who
can help a newcommer !
plung protection team
looking at the action in the vix, im not feeling good about today, too complacent and the prices arent matching
Volume not matching the moves in the indexes, Vix acting funny, as sanjay stated NH/NL acting poorly, im sorry but im calling bullsh** to today.
just read an article and thought this was funny
"With interest rates likely moving higher again later in the year, not to mention what appears to be a real estate slowdown occurring,"
if this is what "appears" to be a real estate slowdown occuring, i hate to see what happens when it actually does slowdown, LOL
good article, poor choice of word.
it's almost sad to see the bulls give it a go, and then watch it all disappear at the end of the day. at some point they are all going to say "to hell with this "
that will be the
" uh oh " that most of us on this board are waiting for them to recognize
once we get below this subdivide of 11,107 it should be the beginning of an extended fall
IMO
bsi87....peix has earnings today.
maybe PEIX doesn't have earnings today......thought i read that somewhere but can't find it.
And the winner today is......
Anonymous said...
we will bounce hard monday and fade throughout the day...the bears will prevail...
who said the above last night. You are CORRECT, sir!
"Volume not matching the moves in the indexes, Vix acting funny, as sanjay stated NH/NL acting poorly, im sorry but im calling bullsh** to today."
hey the market had three digit gains today when i posted this, can i have a half a cigar tim?
im joking. :)
take that you bulls.
the volume is nothing short of disappointing despite this crazy volatile crap-pot. there were times when i was ready to puke, and some times when i was hugging senior citizens outside my office.
The Q's are ready for some crazy downside movement, look at the price pattern, you'll see a beauty of a downtrend, and today, it is hugging the upper part of the channel (isn't that nice that I give you these really detailed descriptions without any charts or anything???).
Im still holding on to a hell of a lot of Q puts, but if tomorrow something tries to kill the bearish trend I have painted on my charts, I'll sell some puts.
i CAN'T WAIT for tomorrows market to open.
and by Q, I mean QQQQ, not some Qwest $9/share Bullsh*t
Tony, thanks for gw. Do you seeit going lower. Sanjay, thanks for aaple, Im in the money on both.50 dimes worth. this aint gamblin, takin the dodgers yesterday was gamblin! goodluck Traders! Chris
Suntrust did a fess up on the effects of the yield curve as well as a large bad loan problem on its prospective earnings. It will be interesting to see what happens as cognition of these looming risks spread to other banks. Short BAC/WFC
chronictown: All of my picks (GW, AUY, VOL, COG) are doing very well indeed. If you shorted GW around $7.50, then you should probably cash out 1/2 your position now ($7.08 current price). I'd drop my stops to $7.30 (22 cent trailing stop) and let the rest ride. Chances are that GW will continue to drop into the mid $6 range, but there's no guarantee.
Wish I had the money to put into those shorts when I made the calls last week. Would have made some very nice coin on them. AUY is down almost 10% alone.
I was a bit miffed today watching my DXD, SDS, and QID positions sitting at 2-3% losses, but traders eventually regained their senses and I ended up virtually flat on the day. Whew. That should take some steam out of the bulls for at least a few days. And if the bears REALLY take over (this is a PERFECT opportunity for them to do so), we could see some significant downward movement over the next few days.
-Tony
sanjay, good luck with those. I wouldn't go near them on the long side unless there was a significant breakout to the upside with volume. WIRE, being cyclical (and heavily tied to housing/construction), is poised for a pullback.
PWEI is again tied to construction, but is a nice play on PVC as an alternative to copper plumbing, which helps. However, there is a massive gap around the $15 area, which would most likely get filled if there were any bad news about that stock in the next quarter or so. Until it makes a new high above $32, I personally wouldn't go near it.
Sounds like you've got more guts (or patience) than I do with those picks. Good luck.
-Tony
Oh, one other thing: look at the money flow on WIRE. It's been negative for over a month while the stock has drifted upwards/sideways.
Looks like the rug could get pulled out from under that stock at any moment. I think the big run that they had from Jan-May was simply due to the huge speculative inflows to all base metals-related stocks.
-Tony
hey guys, check out this one MSTR
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