HANS & Fans
Let us all bow our heads for a moment of silence out of respect for fallen superstar HANS (long-time favorite of wayward poster hurricane5, who set a price target of $120 for this stock). At long last, this thing is getting clobbered.
HANS has fallen 40% in less than a month. Why, oh why, didn't they ever have options for this thing? Well, truth to tell, there were a few options, but just a handful, and the bid/ask spread was wider than Roseanne Barr's waist.
Anyway, here's a daily graph of HANS, accentuated with a Fibonacci fan (long term) and supporting trendline (medium term).
A closeup view of this stock indicates that, for now, we're close to a bottom. I've covered my short on this at a handsome profit. I think that, long term, the stock is headed way, way lower. But I'm happy to take my fat profits for the moment.
Few things in life are certain, but this is: tomorrow is going to be bananas on the market. Which is probably going to take a lot of the excitement and participation out of the market today. I probably won't have a heck of a lot to say until after this Fed madness is past us. We'll see.
60 comments:
Tim,
can we hope the same for AAPL?
So Tim, or others, where do we see its smaller competitor JSDA going? I know its stock is not very liquid, but it looks very overvalued.
Oh Great One! Thanks for the advice about HANS. I know I'm not deserving, but I too made a fat profit, all thanks to you.
Great One, you mentioned MOT as a possible short. I would like to plunge in. Is it time now?
"Great One" ?
Great One. I like that :) Maybe I should cut down on eating snacks!
I closed HANS too early. Which serves me right. There was no *technical * reason to close it. Wow, what a day on HANS. Smack-o-roony.
I'm long MOT puts. I believe in its weakness. Of course, it's not as expensive as HANS, so there's less $$$$ to fall.
Wow. I haven't seen the comments section this dead in a while! We went from a beehive to a cemetary. I guess people are in deer-in-headlights mode regarding the Fed tomorrow.
Tim, or should I say great one?
Are you still long puts on the XAU and gold miners?
To respond - - yep, I've still long puts on the XAU, and yes, I still have all my puts (or shorts) in place except for a handful which have been stopped out. I am loaded for bear (or bull, more accurately).
The way I see it, the Fed thing is (knock wood) a can't lose situation for us. If they pause, that's what everyone expects, and we'll have a "sell the news" selloff. If they notch rates up again, all hell wil break lose.
And, irrespective of this, no matter what they do, we're faced with the question of what they'll do the NEXT time we go through this?
Why a Fed pause suddenly means it's a rosy future for the bulls is beyond me. I mean, people, the reason they're doing all this is because the economy is slowing down!
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. To hike, or not to hike, that is the question.
The Bears will be happy either way. :)
should I just take the bet and go in on DXD before the Federal reserve meeting at 2:15pm, I really feel the market is headed lower and think i could grab 3% by tomorrow afternoon if i get in around $70
"Why a Fed pause suddenly means it's a rosy future for the bulls is beyond me. I mean, people, the reason they're doing all this is because the economy is slowing down!"
That's a little too simplistic. It certainly didn't guarantee a beat market in '94 just after the Fed stopped hiking.
If the fed pauses there will be a bried rally that I would be shortttttttting.
I think the current state of the markets goes well beyond a simple "pause or don't" scenario. The TREMENDOUS amount of liquidity that is still pumped into the markets on a daily basis can easily overcome any small selloffs that might occur in the short term.
401k plans, pension plans, overzealous bulls, etc. are all pumping money into the markets. The "automatic" 401k investments make up a huge portion of the investment funds that are continually pumped into the markets. I suspect those investments won't stop just because the Fed decides to pause or not.
Anyways, I do expect a sagging of the market, but in looking at the big picture, it just seems like we could see 1995 all over again with some renewed buying interest after a brief correction.
if tomorrow there is no 1/4 raise hike and a pause there will be a 1-2% rally. That is without question.
If there is a rate hike and no pause go short and by 4pm you should be up about 1-2% on any stock you short.
i can't beleive that 8% of US oil is coming off line and the market is only off 20 points. THAT IS INSANE. got to love the PPT.
They have to replace 22 miles of pipe and could take 2-3 months. $80 oil is possible by end of august or even sooner.
there is NO WAY saudi can pump more and IRAN is not going to give us any.
WHAT A F'IN JOKE>
Calpers just announced they will start buying commodities. Oil stocks will skyrocket!
Anyone buying into HANS. I may buy a little under $29.00 if it gets there tomorrow. However The stock is off 40% in about a week. I think it may be done going down. May be due for a bounce.
So Tim,
it appears that low volume in the comments section of your blog means that there will be low volume in the $INDU, or wait, or is it the other way around...
eddiefl, it is funny that you showed up within days after he left. Incredibly coincidental to me...
Short:
ACLI
JUST WENT LONG SDS at $69.75
when everyone is expecting a rally at 2:15 it wont happen. Markets will weaken by 2:30pm
Paul
I am short ACLI NOVL.
ACLI: little cash, huge debt, Wading industry in a slowing economy...
SAnjay Sola, Are you still short on aapl,and if so what exit price are you looking to cover on.Any thoughts would be great.Keep up the great posts. ChronicTown
costas you make want to sell my SDS long now for a minor loss. I have until 2:15
HANS investors,
short story:
I was short HANS at 32, but decided to cover and go long at $31.50 ended up selling for a loss today at $30.00, that was a really pathetic trade that if I stayed with my first instinct i could have walked away with great money. Never again. Should have known to stay to short. Stock continues to drop, feel like shorting but my luck it will turn around and head to $30++
The one scenerio that will catch every off guard is a sell off after announcement followed by a power boner over the next 2 weeks.
is HANS a good short still?
hans was the leader that is no longer a leader...market is losing leaders one day at a time
they said that they may be offline for 2-3 months...oil to 80 and gas at the pump to 3.50+ soon
once the market turns red watch out
Sanjay,
Whats your thoughts on Indian banks IBN and HDB. Short now or wait for few more days?
2 more hours till this roller coaster tops. Make sure your strapped in and all hands are inside the ride.
who knows what will happen. anyone wanna comment on the production numbers, lower than expected output and higher labor costs, lol. great news!
Well the saying goes that bull markets ignore bad news and welcome good news. Judging by the value/defensive driven nature of the market, we are not in a bull market now. remember that
so everyone is expecting the fed to cut and that will be a band-aid, well i really do not think that they care about this as much as the expectations of comments from Mr. B that a slowing economy will contain inflation. guess what, not gonna happen.
this is what will happen IMHO, bad news had been ignored and covered with the Fed blanket, only to have the fed reiterate everthing that has been ignored at this FOMC meeting, regardless of a pause or not. The market has set itself up for this very scenario by its defensive nature that is being ignored.
see you at a retest of 1222 on the S&P.
going to be one heck of a ride....
no pause and say hello to dow 11k this afternoon...
mike
Anyone shorting CELG? - BigBill
would like to see the market break down ahead of the meeting, im long SDS and would like a little profit, dont want to get stuck holding it if the markets rally...
paul
sold SDS and now waiting to re-enter so patiently. Im thinking a pause will rally the markets and then a late day selloff
market is stuck, its so waiting for the 2:15pm decision.
rates going to 6% so i dont think they will pause today. Good luck.
HANS holding firm around 28.80 to 29.10
I hope there is a rally today and the next few days. I want to load up on QID, SDS, DXD.
mid morning on thursday...thats tough to agree with. dow 11450-11500 tops.
5 minutes
bloomberg continues to mention pause. no pause = a huge drop
no hike!!
All hell breaking loose!!!
Certainly not much of a rally. Tough to guess what's going on right now.
The markets seem to have sold off a bit and are now consolidating around 11,200.
Should be interesting to see what will happen in the coming week(s).
looks like the market will go up in the last hour.
Everyone expecting a 'sell-the-news' trade. So they make it look like that's what's happening, draw in the suckers, then BAM! stick it to them.
Get the rally hats on boys!
Sanjay, what are you shorting?
Sanjay: how many of those are RECENT shorts? Or have you been sitting on them for a while?
My question is: are they still profitable shorts, or have they already run their course? I'm reluctant to short HANS at this point, for example, as it looks ready for a rebound. AAPL could still yet climb, CAKE has been sitting around $22-25 for a while now, and TIE is completely unpredictable. I saw one day when TIE was down 11%, but finished the day in the GREEN by 1.5%.
-Tony
i shorted 5000s hans with my entire account this morning knowing that this dog cant hunt. keep up the good teaching tim, i follow with pride.
Wow, you've never been to Vegas...
hope AAPL goes back into the 50s soon!
Sanjay, I'm in gold already. Not much action today. Actually dropped a bit. Gold has been in a trading range for a while, so there's no short term trend quite yet. Long term, gold should do well.
Gold is trading near the apex of a symmetrical triangle right now. If it punches through $660 on good volume to the upside, it's clear sailing. But if it gets into the low $620s on the downside, it could easily revisit $560 or perhaps even lower.
If you're not in, I'd wait for a breach of one of those two levels before making a decision.
-Tony
I am waiting to see ACLI crash to MA200. Little cash, huge debt, declining manufacturing revenue...economy slowing in U.S=>shipping slowing.
Is it time go short massive yet?
anyone?
Been doing well on the Apple short. Looking for some additional retracement.
Also looking at GM lately. Purchased the puts today.
Post a Comment