What's It Gonna Take?
OK, so let me get this straight. The world narrowly avoids having a slew of commercial passenger jets being blown out of the sky, sending thousands of innocent civilians to a horrible, terrifying death, and the market goes UP? Even airlines ended the day in positive territory! What the hell?
I would like to provide a handy reference, based on today's action, for any future news and how it will affect the market:
- Russia Declares Nuclear War on the U.S.: Dow down 37 points
- Nuclear Strike Annihilates Free World: Dow down 52 points
- Joe Lieberman gives George Bush a tongue kiss: Dow up 254 points on record volume.
Well, in spite of my pissed-off tone, my portfolio actually did OK today. The only reason is that (1) I closed out my SPX and OEX puts early in the day, since I could sense today's action was completely messed-up (2) I have a lot of oil-related shorts. But, even so, today's action was just stupid.
It took me one glance at one chart early in the day to know there was trouble. This is the S&P 400 MidCap (daily basis), and as you can see by my mark-up, we are not in the series of lower highs and lower lows that we need. This sucker seems to be strengthening.
I've bombarded you guys with enough charts over the past few days. I'm going to go stew for a while.
58 comments:
its the PPT
Exactly what I was feeling. This market is really resiliant: Huge deficits, slowing economy, Iraq, Lebanon, terrorism, and it still keeps up.
I wait a few days and then go long.
Then the market will obligingly fall 300 points.
anon -- i agree it was the PPT, or at least the expectation that the PPT would come in. When CNBC trotted out their graphics this morning showing how the market always went up after terrorist attacks, I felt certain that that the market would end down today, especially since the attack didn't actually happen. Oh, well.
My main beef is the airlines going up. Doesn't make sense to me. Otherwise, this is what I expected when I walked out the door this morning.
I wish I didn't have to go to work today, I would have margined all I could on SPY first things first.
Overall I did OK sitting on my 100% long portfolio.
By the way, I think anonymous 1 and 2 are different people. I am anon #3, who posted about CNBC graphics.
Patience fellow bears... I've really held back lately....People are really becoming complacent.... Look at the VIX today. Terrorism plot foiled and judging by the 'fear meter'...nobody appears to be concerned.
Oh hot of the newswires...-- U.S. and France agree the main points of a resolution to end fighting
between Israel and Hezbollah -- including on the sequencing of
deployment of the U.N. force, diplomatic sources say.
More ammo for a rally tomorrow morning.... which will be faded....
I cleared out my DIA, OXY and SLB puts this morning on the weakness... I'm hoping SLB goes up again tomorrow so I can reenter. This is a hit and run market guys!!
Wait until the CPI/PPI data next week shows that inflation is still out of control and the fed paused.... the market will freak.
I have no doubt about this.
Be careful about where you decide to start adding puts though... dangerous market. Individual stocks seem to shoot up and down like mad.
it's all that damned liquidity out there courtesy of the FED, the JAPS and the EUROpeans!
-Pete the Greek
Who ever said the market made sense? Slow down coming, market goes up. Interest rates increase, market is up. War in the Middle East, market is up. This can't be the Bush market, is it? Charts are OK for books, but I'd hate to bet the farm on charts!
So, Tim, you said recently that the beta version of java charts will be part of the Investools toolkit. Does this mean it will replace Prophet java charts, or is the toolkit a seperate thing from Prophet?
Someone else already said it, options expiry tomorrow. Max pain levels have to be pinned.
I don't see any other explanation, really. I guess I can understand the resistance of the Dow to completely break down, as it's comprised of very large cap stocks, with a good distribution of utilities, health care, and financials. Those will keep the Dow afloat for a while.
The Naz and S&P are just following suit. I think they will diverge soon enough, and they could very well take the Dow down with them.
All in all, not a bad day. Just not quite what the bears wanted to see, that's all. But nothing horrible. No worries just yet.
If the Dow gets back to 11,300 and the S&P gets above 1280 again, then I might start to worry a bit. But until then, I think we're all right.
Remember: "Nothing goes straight down."
-Tony
TOny ,,, OPtions dont expire tomorrow, they expire on the 3rd friday.
Duh, you're right. Someone else mentioned the options expiry and I guess I didn't give it much thought.
Ok, then I guess I don't have any reason why people would be buying today :)
I still like AUY, VOL, COG, and GW as shorts here. PCU looks to be a nice swing trade on the long side. Possibly 10% potential upside.
Good luck out there.
-Tony
"So, Tim, you said recently that the beta version of java charts will be part of the Investools toolkit. Does this mean it will replace Prophet java charts, or is the toolkit a seperate thing from Prophet?"
The Investor Toolbox is a product of Investools, of which I'm the SVP of Technology. It's separate from Prophet.net
DOES "CASH" not "ACCOUNT VALUE" in an account move with the markets yes or no?
thanks
anon Cash cash does not move, The account value does, now if you are short a stock thats a different story, the cash position will move with the markets.
Thanks. One last question I just opened up a new account with IB, I just started daytraded as well. If I call up asking these questions about margin, shorting, and those type of questions can they shut the account down or take away my margin because I dont know what im doing since Im new to this.
Gary
NVDA down 8% AH and ADI is down 12%. Hopefully this will wear on the techs tomorrow.
Gary, have to talk with your broker about that. And if you went through the fine print, it should be in there too.
mark
this market is smoking some serious crack. Airlines up TODAY? WTF ?
thanks mark....they wont shut down my account or take away my margin will they since I call up with these type of questions
Gary
gary,
IB lets you short and use margin if you agreed to it on the application. I would advise to start of without using margin if you are new to trading b/c you will lose money margining positions if you are inexperienced trading.
jj
It definitely is very odd... does ANYONE have an explanation as to why airlines were GREEN today??
I guess terrorist plots and airport delays are GOOD for airline business...??? Oh, and record-high levels of fuel costs must also be beneficial for their business models, right??
Unreal.
Just goes to show you that "They" can and will do anything with the markets to screw the most people out of their investments.
Keep that in mind.
The crazy thing about this market is that when it does break, it should be somewhat spectacular. Charts aside , pick the lame ducks that are over bloated on high P/E etc, that is if this nuttiness has caused you not to 'keep the faith'
Can't say this isn't interesting.
hey hey to you john
good point
but keep it light huh
I think today was nothing more than a relief rally. Relief that some good LE personnel in the U.K. did a great job of preventing what would have amounted to the next 911. That is thousands of innocents being murdered over the Atlantic by Islamo fascist that believe they will be rewarded with 72 mansions and 72 perpetual virgins. Had they succeeded western markets would have plummeted, which is what they want, and Bin Laden himself has said numerous times that war with the west is best fought through damage to their economies. Even the airlines went up due this "relief" that they are being protected. And I feel the reasons the market didn't go down is due that the free western world is well aware now that terrorism is a part of every day life. In short, after losing the big one(911), we keep winning. As for tomorrow the relief may wear off. Once it's realized that while governments must bat a 1000 - the fascist need only a half way respectable bunt.
bulls have spoken and seem to be chomping on bear meat tonight...
nvda and adi are down quite a bit AH. Semis going down tomorrow. Would be suprised to see if they actually turn around and end in the green.
Hey guys,
Any thoughts on airline shorts now? CAL is below the 200 day moving average and looks like it has good potential.
EddieFl,
what are some the bull blogs u read? Just wanted to get an idea on their thoughts.
The trend of the market is down. This board kills me and Tim does make it quite entertaining. Look folks no market straight up or down okay. If you happen to be a bull there is not shi* to get excited about with today's action..any friggin' technician worth salt knows that today's action was on anemic volume at best and piss poor breadth...come on now..a friggin' blind man can see over the past few weeks that up moves occur on crap volume and down days with serious volume. If you're a bear patience and being quick on the draw if you're a short term trader is key. If you're gonna short an index for god sakes look no further than the COMPQ the shi* can't take out 2100 also a bear flag and rising wedge pattern what more does a bear need to see? The spyders and diamonds are far healthier and all your defensive stocks you can find with those markets. Death and misery thwarted and somehow that euphoria shouldn't spill into the market?! The trend is down...you perma bears/bulls are so damn silly....entertaining though!
I'm loving my CAT :) Just hope it doesn't scratch me!
Tony, im short on Pcu @92.31 . I think it goes to 85.00.I will tighten up my stop. I shorted GW today, iI hpe your right on your target of 6.80!! Sanjay, Thanks for the breakdown of AAPL,i hope it continues its fall. I HAve astupid Qestion about a stock "filling the gap". Does that mean it should retrace those prices it gapped on the way down?? Thanks for all the great info Guys and gals. Goodluck to all! CHRIS
Hahahah, this is totally classic:
"The government reading on retail sales, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is forecast to show a 0.8 percent increase in July, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, helped by strong auto sales and higher spending at gas stations. Sales fell 0.1 percent in June."
Bwahahahaha! Retail spending increase, helped by HIGHER SPENDING AT GAS STATIONS.
Oh boy, that's just GOTTA be good for the economic picture!!
-Tony
retail higher than expected, how could the federal reserve pause at the last meeting, if cpi and ppi are strong next week these markets are straight dowwwwwwwwwwwn. Federal reserve will have to do 50 bp to catch up...
A 50 bp hike at the next Fed meeting would simply crush this feeble market. And I agree, if PPI/CPI figures are high next week, 50 bp won't be out of the question.
I see fresh yearly lows in all indices in October. Possibly a sharp rally from Nov - Feb (led by health care, materials, and metals), but then another crushing collapse into summer 2007.
The oracle has spoken.
:)
-Tony
Good news for AAPL!!! Cannot file 10-Q this quarter. And the stock goes up!!
My only concern with the markets is the unknown inflow of liquidity. With the M3 numbers not being reported, there could be absolutely HUGE inflows of liquidity into the markets to keep them afloat.
Liquidity addition is simply a huge wildcard in these markets. The inflows could be stopped altogether, resulting in a crash, or they could continue unabated until we achieve a hyperinflationary condition, after which point the markets would likely crash.
It all depends on what "They" want to do. If "They" want to keep the markets up, then they'll do so. If not, then they won't float the markets with liquidity.
But as I said, it's such a huge wildcard, there's no possible way to know what will happen next.
-Tony
You need to stop complaining about the market. It's not the market that's 'ridiculous', it's you!
Look, you and I make our living off... the market. It ain't gonna do you much good to complain about it. it's not 'cool', if that's what you think is the effect here. It's dumb!
You'd better learn fast that you're only going to make money with the market if you respect it and become 'friends' with it. In stead of expostulating about how 'you' disagree with what it's doing, try to learn something from it.
You'll be amazed at the difference in your trading.
this market is impossible to trade, everytime I go short the stock goes up and everytime i go long it drops. Today after seeing NVDA take off I entered a short position at $25.40, think went straight up to $24.01 only to come back down to $25.60, sold out losing -.20 on the trade. Cant seem to time this market.
confused daytrader....
So, will AAPL ever fill the gap below at $59.64? My puts are looking stale.
Just a suggestion:
If you're going to post as "Anon", how about writing your name at the end of the post (like Tony)? Just helps the rest of us follow your thoughts from one post to another. I really value the posts of Tony, bsi, costas, Sanjay, etc., and it would be nice to be able to value yours too.
I'd also like to point out that although people are complaining about the lack of conformity with fundamentals regarding the macroeconomic environment, it seems like most people are trading based upon sound TA. I think that's a pretty good combination.
One last point, I love EddieFl. We need more bullish type people here, so please don't mock them when they rear their ugly heads (Hurricane5... *ahem*). A lack of a diverse posting universe reflects a possibly untrustworthy soundingboard. After all, aren't we mostly contrarians here?
deadeyeca,
I think the big boys want to frustrate the retail shorts on AAPL.
Apart from the slowing economy, rising gas prices, who the f*** has money to buy those damn IPods anyway.
AAPL cannot file the 10-Q for this quarter and the big boys manage it to keep above 60. With all the macro-economic news and the options scandal, I would have thought AAPL will be in the 50s by now. As expected, the big boys will try their best to enforce the opposite of what is logical.
I will hold on to my AAPL shorts still I see 50.
Tim, today's action might bring a smile to your face for the weekend! Hope that you've not been stewing long.
After mulling over my bank thesis, I elected to enter a small put positions in WFC (Jan 65) (mortgage exposure) and BAC (NOV 50)(credit card exposure). I think that there is enough fear of additional rate hikes to put a lid on the top end for the next month, and gradually building expectations of consumer's debt load (today's retail numbers notwithstanding). Caveat...for any of you lurkers, I'm not a trader like these guys here.
I guess the morons who bought a 1B/1B condo for 400K in CA are the ones who are also buying AAPL here.
Are all you bears enjoying the PPT ? The news get worse. Inflation numbers this morning are worse. Airlines under severe threat, Israel starting ground invasion HORRAY ! market off its lows. WTF.
Hold onto your hats next tuesday and wednesday, PPI, CPI and a other reports are coming out, if we are retesting support this month, then next week should show some conviction.
today its nice to see the market down, but volume sucks so its a scratch, but its great not to see follow thorough from yesterday, meaning both bull and bear have completely stepped aside today and are waiting for next week to come.
Costas, thanks for your insight. Where's your blog?
wait for ppi an cpi. if there both showing huge signs of inflation say hello to dow 10850 next week...
this market is bound to fall next week...hopefully. options exp is friday and then we should began to tank downward afterwards.
bearmoney
Well, bsi87, looks like you had a good call on GLD. Got stopped out at my $630 limit sell. Unfortunately, it closed above that level today, but I don't like the action anyways.
Looks like we could see some further weakening in gold... which is strange, because if the inflation gauges next week show higher inflation readings (which I believe they will), then gold should move up. But when the Fed paused earlier in the week and gold basically did nothing (except weaken), I was afraid something might be out of whack.
Anyways, looks like I'll be on the sidelines again with gold.
My other shorts (AUY, GW, VOL, COG) are all looking good. Too bad I didn't have any money to put into them :)
-Tony
What is 'PPT'? Its been mentioned several times in these comments.
Thanks in advance.
My CAT is still happy. :) 500% happy. Will it be 1000% happy? We'll find out at the end of next week.
Had a heart-to-heart with the wife this morn, and she said that I could have money to trade with. I told her I'm not ready yet. So I have the green light when I'm ready.
Yeah, a different attitude from a month or two ago when I felt untouchable, but I realize that I can be touched and want to make sure I get my emotions out of my trading.
And I've noticed that I say, "I want it to go that way," and realize that is the wrong thing to say. I need to change it to, "I expect it to go that way." Until then, I'm parking myself on the sideline in the paper.
But I still wish I had some real CAT this month!
Why do I rave about CAT? Because it had the perfect TA setup to short light at the start on 8/8/06, then short heavy by the end of the day in my TA opinion. Even though it rose a little yesterday, it still was within the downward channel. In my notes I mentioned a possible pull-back on 8/10. If it rose much today, it would have been time to get out, but I didn't expect it because it isn't oversold.
ppt = plunge protection team
gYou people are laughable. Especially the Bears. Bragging everyday that you're the shit and poking fun at the Bulls for their weak rally attempts. At least they try! What the hell have you done all week? Nothing! Deer in the headlights -- talking shit, getting us all excited about gang-banging the bulls -- and we believed you! Loaded up on a double dose of viagra -- only to be left with a 12 hour erection and lightheaded from a lack of bloodflowing to the brain! Thanks a lot!
The ball is up in the air and no one seem to want to run with it. Bears-- Bulls-- I don't care who! Just do something already! These last weeks have been such torture!
--Furio
Furio, something is always moving no matter what the indexes do. Finding them is the hard part, ya think?
I do my best trading in a range bound market. Thank You! I hope we get sideway action for a few more weeks. Check out AORD in austrialia. Sideways for 5 weeks straight.
Furio, forget the Viagra & try a little lithium
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