It Sticks/This Sucks
Ouch. The bulls finally got what they've been wanting: a large rally which lasted through the end of the trading session. No more "pop and drop" today! It was nasty.
Below is the minute bar graph of the S&P 500. There was a solid lift right from the opening, and it basically gained strength from there. At one point it looked like a repeat of yesterday, with a triple-digit rally fading quickly, but it recomposed itself and squeezed a lot of bears out of the picture. Again, ouch.
The $VIX is extremely low right now, virtually at a record low. This indicates widespread complacency among traders. Generally speaking, no one is fearing a fall.
I've still got a few charts up my sleeve though. For your consideration, here are some possible short candidates. First, Aetna (AET):
CERN:
ESRX:
MBT:
MOT:
Tomorrow morning the CPI figure and Housing Starts are released at 8:30 EST. Given today's excitement over what appears to be an ease in inflation, it will be interesting to see if the bulls add to today's gains or if we're still stuck in up/down/directionless mode.
150 comments:
this sucks and should i throw up now or later. i know we all all know the economy is starting to slow down, wars, inflation and yet the market hangs out at 11K ... I am so pissed at myself. I am NO longer watching the news just the charts. If you dont have a clue about the state of anything you can just watch the chart. My problem was getting caught up in the macro picture. This blog was always beating the bear drum. You get so focused on the market doing something when its not going to do it. i have to learn how to go with it. I mean who caught the 100 gap up this morning if you bought today you are up 30 points! who made money ? people buying the close yesterday .... the volume today on the DIA was kind of light so lets see what happens. but i dont even want to look at this market for a couple weeks. it has just made me sick and confused.
Hey Tim, did you close out any of your positions today or are you riding this out?
Yes volume was decent. all in all a good day, and one that had better carry through tomorrow. The bulls finally have the day they wanted, lets see what they do with it. We still need follow through though, and until i see wednesdays action, i remain skeptical. Macro picture is bearish, market has been bullish, albeit with faultering conviction.
I'm thinking that these markets stink of manipulation. It almost seems that you could just be blindly bullish and eventually make good money on these rallies. Just keep buying on the dips and eventually you'll make out ahead.
In the face of rising inflation (much higher than the Fed's comfort range), slowing growth, lowered guidance, stock options scandals, and everything else, the markets still find some insignificant reason to rally over 100 points.
Pathetic.
Tony,I shorted Auy @10.04.what is your feeling on this stock.any thoughts would be great!It seems to be trying to break the 50day sma.9.60 would be lovely! Good luck to the traders. Chris
PPI was not insignificant...think it the other way round...if it would have been like +0.4% THEN market would have been down by -130 points...so i think today's action for the bulls is justifiable..
Re: PPI
Not when you figure that the ONLY reason that the core PPI was negative was that the highly volatile automotive component brought it down 0.3% alone. Otherwise, the core PPI would have been pretty much in-line.
Besides, as I've said before, *one single* economic datapoint does not change the global economic outlook for the broad markets. So for it to have more than a 1% effect (and over 2% on the Naz) all by itself in a single day is absurd.
Chronic: My call originally was to short at $10.82 and to cover half yesterday at $9.83. I would have moved my stops on the second 1/2 to around $10.15, so as it turns out I wouldn't have been stopped out today. My call would be to leave the stops in place and see what happens tomorrow. If the market continues up and gold/oil softens further, then I wouldn't cover until slow stochastics go below 20.
Good luck.
-Tony
Any thoughts on Apple crossing over the 200 day moving average today????/
Negative divergence on Oil Index:
http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2006/08/amex-oil-index-xoi-negative-divergence.html
My CAT put was up 700% at the end of yesterday, and now down to about 430%. According to my TA, I figure it's time to cash that kitty in and ride out the crazyness.
What I find funny is that I bought some puts on Sept options and even though the stock went up, my puts gained value. The two are PG and MRK. Odd...
AAPL will probably hit 68ish by/at the end of the week before heading back down. This trip down may be the long awaited (for bears) one. If not, then it will have to wait until Sept.
I do find it funny how the prices tend to lock on a lot of stocks when option week comes around, and up to the Wed prior to expiration week. Then the end-of-month madness. Is there ever a week when the market doesn't feel manipulated?
BSI you mentioned you added a position in SDS with a sell limit at $67.60, I would be careful and most likely erase that sell limit order, reason being is because i have seen some of the proshare etfs fall 2-3 in a day only to erase those losses and come back unchanged. If economic data tomorrow shows little or no inflation i think SDS could drop another $1.25-$2.00. Im not worried with my position at $69.50. I think this rally is a head fake just like the other 28 or so we have had these last 4 months. I also own positions in other proshares, I have gains in QLD at the moment and look to get rid of it hopefully tomorrow around 70.25-70.75 if we do rally tomorrow. This will hurt my SDS long but once I sell out of QLD ill avg down in SDS if this does happen and wait for DOW 11k.
Market has no reason to go up. One thing that has kept this market going the last 5 years is the housing market. Thats done with, people are not borrowing as much as they were. 2/3 of this economy is based on the consumer. Just about all equity they can take out is practically diminishing. ARMS are reseting and foreclosures skyrocketing. This is not good. MArkets at 6 year highs, people looking for dow 12k COME ON, get real. IF it does happen i will be shorting and buying puts on all indexes. Where is the next catalyst for DOW 12k, where is it???
I still think dow 10k before 12k. Watch the selling towards the end of the week. These rallies are nothing but headfakes. Short when the markets up and cover when its sliding.
Xtrader
Just some food for thought....The market tends to find a bearish bottom (no pun intended) in the second year of a Presidential term. 2006 is the second year of the current second term. The third and fourth years tend to be bullish. Yes...that'a probably market manipulation. It's been going on since the 1940's. The following article from Pepperdine University explains it pretty well. Take a look and decide for yourselves. Just remember....we can make money if the market goes up or goes down. Who really cares. Let them (whomever "they" are) manipulate all they want. Just trade to be profitable.
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html
Trade smart and trade the chart.
Doug
Today was a great example of why we should not get attached to our sentiment. Today's break could signal a change in pattern and direction. Take it in stride! Will that mean that some of Tim's great stock posts won't go down - no, just may take longer. Hope people on the board have nice watch lists with both long and short positions.
Personally got hurt on a couple puts. Got out by EOD on the plays that broke out with volume (what we have to do!!!).
Good luck - Tim - keep up the posts, for every bull there is a bear waiting (just sleeping- do you think the cool wave on the east coast lulled the bear into a temporary hibernation? ha, ha).
well if anyone here looks at historical patterns the middle of august is quite strong on all the indices and this looks to me like it's playing out here. Add in options expiration week to the mix and I feel like the market will head south next week. For now though gotta respect the market message and accept that major resistance levels were convincingly taken out. It doesn't matter to me one way or the other as it has been quite profitable to short this market since may...if da party over it's over for shorts and puts. I still think something bearish is going to occur next week, but not willing to place a bet on just my gut....instead I'll sit on the sidelines and watch.
I think that the single most dangerous and common trader pitfall is failing to keep an open mind and instead getting stubbornly locked into a belief about what the market is going to do. And that's my main gripe about this blog, even though I enjoy the interaction and generally constructive comments. The determination that this market MUST roll over (to the tune of 80 short positions!) is just not a smart approach to trading, IMHO. Gotta go with the flow, put the ego away, and understand that you can't fight the market--it'll win every time.
Personally, I expect this to be another head-fake too. But there are quite a few stocks waiting for a catalyst to bump up. I jumped on a few that looked good to me. And I expect most to be only good for a day to the end of the week, but a decent profit on the options side.
Definitely staying in the money for this *cough* rally.
"The determination that this market MUST roll over (to the tune of 80 short positions!) is just not a smart approach to trading, IMHO. Gotta go with the flow, put the ego away, and understand that you can't fight the market--it'll win every time"
I base alot of my trading on economics etc.... to determine which sectors should be weak, with the assistance of technicals.
Can anyone say that companies will blow their #'s out next quarter??? The economy is slowing and so is earnings growth.... thus multiples must contract....that doesn't mean taking the market up to new highs...but if it happens so be it. Some are desperate to run up this market on any piece of news....
Complacency is what happened in 2000.... At some point earnings/ economic data and the stock market must trade in synch and bad news can't be ignored forever.
Since when is slowing growth a good thing for stocks...
I've lost count of the number of times I've read on this blog how the economy is slowing and inflation is rising. Is this news to anyone? It's certainly not news to the market. The default scenario is for growth to slow to around 3% this year and 2% next, with inflation picking up modestly and corporate profits declining from record levels. Why was the market up so much yesterday? Because the PPI number didn't correspond with that scenario.
Bottom line, for this market to go down economic growth needs to slowdown more than is expected, perhaps into a recession, and inflation needs to get above the 4/5% level.
Oh well. For some reason, a rise in CPI of 0.4% and a rise in core CPI of 0.2% is good for the markets.
The only deviation was that the core was 0.2% instead of 0.3% expected.
Here we go with another 100-point gainer. Hilarious. The PPT is really working overtime in these markets to push out all the shorts. They may succeed today.
We are on a verge of a melt up back to the highs. Double bottom action.
Unfortunately, I'm forced to agree. Looks like this market will do just about anything to push higher. A core CPI reading of 0.1% less than consensus and the market rallies hard??
Can't fight it, I guess. Looks like yesterday cleared resistance and today will be a follow-through day. Could actually be time to take out aggressive long positions.
Who knew?
-Tony
You may have seen that chart showing the historical long-term growth of the DJ Index, plotted on log scale, its trendline goes up about 7% year over year. My theory is that whatever happens in the broader economic picture, there is a lot of money people want to invest, with a limited number of options: stocks, bonds/ treasuries or real estate. Also remember foreign capital inflows ($75 billion just last year). With real estate cooling off, all that money would also be diverted to stocks and bonds. Presumably the funds are sitting on mountains of cash, and desparate to invest in something, anything, so they pump in those billions on any sign of good news. Face it folks, there may be small dips, but Dow in 11000s or more is here to stay.
No Jason, you are mistaken. Volume on Tues WAS THE LOWEST its been in months. Okay it was on the buy side obviously, but think about it - if you were/are a bull you would want to buy at the lowest price, so you would you rush in now? Why wasnt the mony buying all the way down to 10700 then? Answer, everyone just trying to follow a trend and make money. It doesnt matter which way price move, or why they move, as long as the sheep follow the leader. The danger is that the leaders get smart and turn the other way before the herd catch up and then make a heap of money in advance of the rest catching the change of direction.
Any market built on this basis has no substance when under pressure. Thats another reason why we believe this donkey roadshow is doomed to collapse. All smacks of the arrogance displayed in the summer of 1987, when the US lead the worldwide rally until........WHAM Oct '87. Probably very few here have ever experienced what its like to see 20% wiped off in just one day - no exceptions. Althougth the indices recovered, individual share prices took months or years to recover - and that was the larger companies. The smaller and mid size took a lot longer and a substantial amount NEVER recovered the pre 87 values. Thats what happens when the herd gets arrogant. We are now seeing that same kind of arrogance
Tim,
Your website is not updated when I go http://tradertim.blogspot.com. The last post you have is from August 10th.
I only get the latest feeds in my RSS reader.
Just thought I'd pass that on - you might have a lot of readers who don't use RSS readers.
-Mike
bsi87: Where are you looking to get QID? Today's low of $69.01 seems tough to beat.
-Tony
Thanks, but why do you choose those prices, technically-speaking?
Seems like just sort of a "guess" to me. Or is it an established system?
BTW, VIX is below its 200-day SMA for the first time since May.
-Tony
hey Mike, its not the website, its probably your Cache on your computer (which stores local versions of the websites you visit).
Go into your internet options, and clear your Temporary Files - you should be doing this regularly because your/mine/everyone's hard drive gets loaded with a lot of crap files from sites we visit.
That should help.
If that doesn't work, clear your History, this is also thru the same menu (different tab). I don't know which menu item it is under since I use a Mac, but you can easily just google it. I think its under the Tools - Internet Options, and one of the options in there.
What I would like to find is the Internet Option button for clearing this bullish rally.
Ok, a bad one, but yet everyone completely understands...
I don't know how well this bull rally will sustain, because its already starting to falter.
"I don't know how well this bull rally will sustain, because its already starting to falter."
The trade which has worked recently has been to fade strength in the early-mid part of the day. That worked until yesterday. Today it looked like it was going to work sucking in the short-term-it's-overbought crowd, then wham! they gun it higher.
Watch the SOX, it brokeout of its downward channel about 10 days ago and has been leading everything up. It's strong again today.
dash
I hope none of you really averaged up here. If we take out 1300 on the september futures, we'll see an explosion up to 1340.
The reason why I will stay in cash until I see some nice setups on the short side... is that the risks are still on the downside.
At any time some fed head could come out and talk down the market- err perhaps today @1pm. THe economy is slowing which means it is a bad time to be in stocks. No growth = ugly earnings and it is coming sooner rather then later.
even though its up, Im still not getting a good feeling about this rally, to be honest with you.
Vix showing crap, the macd showing crap (the spx's macd is right at a resistance where its been July and May before things starting crapping out.
Im a little hesitant on making any moves this morning.
Anonymous said...
I hope none of you really averaged up here. If we take out 1300 on the september futures, we'll see an explosion up to 1340.
8:03 AM
see thats the problem with this type of analysis, its seems everyone will be paying attention to 1300 and that if it is broken 1340 will come without a problem, to tough to say, i think this rally is ready to fall apart, wouldnt be suprised to end the day in the red. Still think this rally is a head fake, sold my QLD and long QID and SDS at the moment.
OIL down again, looking to buy some USO very soon. It will be back up before you know it.
SHORT BRCM, THE RALLY IS OVER IN THAT STOCK...........
does anyone notice the two gaps on the DIA this week.... this rally looks tired.
Any thoughts?
i think this rally gives up and shorts take it over around 1-2pm
The reason that nobody gets a good feeling about this rally is because it is artificial. I've never thought this before, but it is almost obvious to me that some big $$$ are running up the market..... Look at overall volume yesterday-brutal.
LOok at the exhaustion gaps.....
Since the June Lows, we have higher highs and higher lows. Why are some of you fighting this?
aapl just turned red
"Since the June Lows, we have higher highs and higher lows. Why are some of you fighting this?"
Were earnings impressive? How about guidance? Is the economy strengthening or slowing? Therefore one needs to turn a sharp eye when they see a slowing economy and a market that has had a 7% "correction" .....and expanding multiples.
When things don't add up..... it must be questioned.
"When things don't add up..... it must be questioned."
Things haven't added up for quite some time. By the time things add up, it will be too late to cover.
unless we get more volume ... this rally isn't convincing at all
remember this is options expiration week ... the run up so far has only been to max pain levels
i'll be convinced with this rally if we manage to break through max pain levels on heavy volume by monday
If the Dow close here, it will be higher lows and higher highs on a closing basis.
The dow went up 120 point yesterday and everyone here said it won't stick. We got a 50 point follow thru and everyone here said it won't stick. Looks like alot of guys just holding their shorts and doing alot of wishfull thinking.
Fed head Moscow speaks @1pm.... i think he comes out bearish.....
Still sitting on the sidelines..
bsi87: Do you trade for a living or just for fun?
Seems like you have a good feel for the market's movements and do a good job of anticipating moves in advance.
Keep up the good calls. I don't always trade by them, but I like them anyways.
-Tony
anon at 8:54,
i think stocks and indices are well above max pain levels.....dia max pain is 111, qqqq max pain is 37, and spy is 127.
What do u consider the max pain to be on these.
Forget max pain. Market is rallying and many have failed to see it here. Maybe another 200 points to the upside should do it.
"it looks like a lot of people are buying the semis."
I'm watching the SOX carefully. As long as it continues to make new intra day highs, this rally has legs.
dash
this rally is funny as hell, im not falling for this extended rally, it will fall as quick as it went up. Seems like no one knows anything about the negative news, only seem to focus on the positive news. PATHETICCCCC.
last time SMH and the semis rose just like they are today and a week later they sold off. Do not fall for the semi rally, it will fall apart, however i would be going long the semi ETF SMH and PSI in laste oct early nov for an easy 10-15% return.
Dag,
Exactly! If this is a bottom for the Semis, we still have a long way up left. I won't be surprise if we melt up from here back to the highs at 11,700.
i am reading and hearing that one month of ppi and cpi data means nothing. Now if we get 3 or 4 straight months of low CPI and PPI then maybe we can say inflation is tame.
"Forget max pain. Market is rallying and many have failed to see it here. Maybe another 200 points to the upside should do it. "
What is the market rallying on exactly??? Inflation is still above the feds comfort zone.... and economic growth is slowing. Sounds like a reason to party to me!!!hmm
Thats bad for earnings and stocks....
11700 come on, how can anyone think that. There is no catalyst at the moment. Earnings are done. Thats it. Oil still up, inflation on the rise, Rates still going to 6%, housing market is done with, debt is at huge levels........come on. Wait till the sell off, you will be wishing you sold at these levels. Believe me....
Why is broadcom up 9% today????
News??? SEems odd
"What is the market rallying on exactly??? Inflation is still above the feds comfort zone.... and economic growth is slowing. Sounds like a reason to party to me!!!hmm
Thats bad for earnings and stocks...."
Interestingly, it's not really a question of being "bad for stocks" but more a question of "not good for bonds or fixed-income investments."
Fund managers are awash in cash right now. Corporations are awash in cash right now. They all need places to put that money. So, if it seems like the Fed is done raising rates, then CHANCES ARE that stocks will continue to outperform fixed-income investments, regardless of the poor economic outlook.
So, since there are TONS of stocks that have been beaten down 10-20% over the last couple of months, people are putting their money into these "bargains" and hoping for the best. It doesn't matter that the economic outlook is bleak -- they just have no where else to put that money!
Don't get me wrong, they're not investing 100% into stocks. But they probably will continue to buy as long as the stock market APPEARS to be able to provide better returns than 4-5% CDs or bonds.
It's a different perspective, but I think it's one that the bears need to consider.
-Tony
holy moly......huge volume on brcm
brcm hahaha up over 35% in one weeeeeek why?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
" brcm hahaha up over 35% in one weeeeeek why?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????"
because we are heading back to test the highs.
bsi watch USO, they will come out with some news about oil and it will run back to 70+++
Anonymous said...
" brcm hahaha up over 35% in one weeeeeek why?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????"
because we are heading back to test the highs.
9:59 AM
no were noooooooooooooooooooooooottttttt
This rally looks very forced. No great news, just single pieces of data out of context.
It must have consumed an extreme amount of effort and $$$ by the big boys to lift the market this much. Very, very strained. I think they will have to drop the weight soon.
Can you guys stop posting this non-sense about BRCM or any other stock, without providing any technical details.
Please let us try to focus, there is no need to panic.
The only thing that pains me about this is that I didn't forsee it. In fact most people had the bearish outlook. So I missed out on something where I could have made a good amount. Sadly, now just sitting on the sidelines watching the train go by.
This market is testing bears patients.
dead bear
10:06 believe me I have missed out on every single mini rally this market has had, not because im 60 bearish and 40 bullish its because its impossilbe to time, on monday afternoon you could have picked up any stock about 5% cheaper than what it is today but the question is would you want to buy ahead of 2 very important economic pieces of data. I know I didnt want to so I stood on the sidelines. I was going to buy 500 worth of PIV at an even $14 but decided to hold off, that same ETF is trading at $14.70, up 5% since monday afternoon. There will be plenty of bargains soon, just be patient and next time you see stocks selling off buy and when you see them in rally mode sell. Today is a day to go short not long. 2 day rally, could be a third but im sure will have a few sell-offs by next week.
So here's a sentiment gauge, have all you bears capitulated?
We are heading to new highs in a few weeks. Anyone noticed that the Dow is only 400 points away from the highs. 400 points? We did 250 in 3 days!!! 400 is NOTHING! Party on Bulls!
Anon 10:16
I think most of the bears have been squeezed out, except the few hardy or stubborn ones. So is it time for a reversal? I'm ready to buy on dips now.
I remember those fools at that program they call cnbc, you know that financial network. Im sure many of you recall that when the dow was around 11600+ they put this little box in the center of the screen showing how many more points the dow was away from record breaking highs. Well everyone knows what happen, those fools at cnbc hyped this market up all year long saying everything positive than as the dow was just shy of a new record it collapsed, hmm wonder why. Again if it makes it to 11700 or 12,000 im not worried. Nothing can keep it going that high, to many things going on for it to sustain those levels, I will continue to say 10,000 before 12,000. If we do rally to new highs by the end of summer I would be certainly going short into the fall. Any new highs will not continue into the end of 2006.
I would be selling this rally, and buying back at DOW 10800 and Nasdaq 2000.
Tim will be here soon to let us know which way to guage this move...
BUY USO. Some news will be out saying oil is in demand and USO will be at 71 again
HPQ just printed new highs. Dow 11K? Nasd 2K? Might have to wait a bit.
This rally is nothing. Trust me, now a is great time to double up on shorts. This rally is unsustainable just look at the big picture and you'll see. The downward channel from Jun is still in effect. Upper channel resistance is 2145. The NAZ will touch it (where Im gonna double up the truck with shorts) then it'll crash to 1980 where Ill reverse my positions. Bulls better sell before 2145 coz after that things are gonna get painfull for you. BTW I just doubled some of my shorts in case we dont see 2145 (very likely). Bears don't cover! Why would you want to cover and accept your losses when 1980 is comming?
HPQ hmm earnings tonight, could be at $37 tomorrow or back to $32. HPQ has been stuck between 30-34 for about 15 months.
long QID. will avg down even at $65, not worried. Once this rally breaks apart the bulls will be scratching their horns
why is dell moving up ahead of its earnings. To funny. Stock will be in the teens shortly, would be a buyer at 17-18 not at 23
Today's close will tell the tale. No news tomorrow, so if the indices pare their gains today going into the close, then I would expect to see a continued decline tomorrow on profit-taking.
Then we'll see how much ammo the bulls have left.
-Tony
HPQ in a range? Guys, it's in new 52 week highs now.
Woo hoo, looks like they'll be squeezing out more margin shorts today at 2 PM.
Another end of day rocket.
God I love manipulation!
How some of you bears can hang on to this 250 point move up is beyond me.
Some of you have to take a step back and ask yourself. Are you a trader or a bear? Are you here to make money or proof a point? Are you here to figure out the market or go with the flow?
"Some of you have to take a step back and ask yourself. Are you a trader or a bear? Are you here to make money or proof a point? Are you here to figure out the market or go with the flow?"
I'm protecting myself... I booked profits late last week and am ALL CASH. Things still don't look good for the economy and sooner or later it will catch up with the stock market. Bulls are still making up gains that they lost from May.... the earnings situation is going to get worst not better in October/people are kidding themselves if they think otherwise.
If the market wants to act out of synch with data, earnings...then I will miss out on the few % points and protect myself from what I am worried about ...the downside.
My strategy has worked for me this year.... just know when to get out. But just because the markets decide to go up in the past 3 days it doesn't negate the problems that will become larger as we move forward.
im in QID and SDS so im not worried, i dont have to cover any position, just hold tight through this pathetic move...ill hold till october if i have to to make some good money. Wont sell QID until its 76+ and SDS 71+. Ill make enough then go long...
just know when to get out. But just because the markets decide to go up in the past 3 days it doesn't negate the problems that will become larger as we move forward.
11:04 AM
exactly right
anon at 9:28
i consider max pain for dia at 113-114, qqqq at 38-39, spy at 129-130
there were a lot of volume at these strikes in just the past 2 days that pushed up the levels for max pain
i bought into the rally in late july but i have been moving up my stops really tight this week
if we do manage to push through ... great ... but i'm not counting on it
I feel since hurricane left, someone's gotta fill the bull void (I think eddie is doing a good job of it...)
With the breakout that happened yesterday, you can start creating nice bullish channelling on the indices. Well, except the naz, because its just flying in limbo right now (after breaking out of a three month downtrend).
I don't know about all the news, and how its lacking to be reflected in the current prices (or maybe it has already, and we are just too bearish in attitude to accept it), but maybe the last bearish move WAS JUST A CORRECTION for the short term.
I can see how we'll start seeing earnings in the next quarter not being so stellar, but until the news start mounting up, the short term looks bullish - people are very narrow minded, a few stats dictates no rate hikes, and people just have that on their mind.
I really don't know whats up with it, maybe there is more news than what I have read, but I trade based on trends, not speculation.
the volume in this rally is so not convincing
we are right up against key resistance levels ... yet we are at half the volume of the rebound from the lows in july
i just don't see how this is sustainable
market is stuck in a trading range, next move is back down to 11150 on the dow and 2175 on the nasdaq.
BTW,
Where is that individual that said he needed help on what to do with all his puts that are in deep in the red. Did you cover? I remember the question was asked when Dow was up around 80 points yesterday. It is now up over 110 points since.
And where is all those folks that said they will continue to average up. Any luck?
We might have 2-3 more weeks of upside left. See absolutely no reason to short anything.
hey, anon who just posted, what key levels are you talking about? On all indices, the previous high (last month) was broken yesterday.
Higher highs has been met, and lower highs has already been intact for a while now.
I'm kicking myself, but not too hard. I got rid of my CAT puts in good order, but I should have jumped on the CAT calls today. Still trying to see the market from both sides.
I still think that there may not be much more to this rally. Next week will be the real test. Then there is the end-of-month madness again.
That talk about 10,660 and below
being crossed as a starting point to a new bear mkt. is a joke right
now. Getting down to that 10,660
level alone is a whole career in
puts. Right NOW the only question
on any of our minds should be is
whether 10,300 is going to be a
TOP,or whether it is launch pad to
a higher level on the DJIA. And as I'm writing this we just went over
10,300 place your bets and GOOD
Luck !
Bull Anon at 11:23
Please load up on the stocks, otherwise you will miss out on some easy money
Sorry ,Of course I was meaning 11,300 on the upside RIGHT NOW.
Recongizing a shift in the direction of the market is key to making money in this market. We are breaking out of a trading range over the last 3 months and some of you are stuck like a dear looking at a headlight.
I guess I will wait for few more days, hoping the market will go to those insane levels as in May, then load up on DXD, QID and SDS.
I have more confidence that the markets will go down than up, and I will stick to this.
stockshaker
i see where u r coming from
i consider the top of the bear flag at the beginning of june to be key resistance
unless we push through that on strong volume ... i still see a range bound market at best
I see 11,400 before the week is over and then market should make a big push to 11,700 by month end.
If there is anything this market have taught us over the last few months is. Expect the unexpected. It is the unexpected that will inflict the most damage and there's no doubt the unexpected is a push to 11,700 in the dow.
Folks think the market is MM vs the Sheeps. This is absolutey incorrect. The market is MM vs the hedgies and MM is now giving the hedgies a run for their money.
NAZ channel resistance since June is 2145-2150. Just watch as it drops from there. Me? Im loading up my shorts using all 4X margin. But just watch it'll come crashing down to 1980. Just watch and thank me later.
The OEX AUG 600 calls are a good
short term gamble for an upside
explosion in the next 2 days. we
are at about 596.50 as I'm writ-
ing this and they are .75 on the
ask. Good risk reward ratio.
Symbol : OEYHT. If it don't make,
no big losses. If it goes over 600,
we'll,do the math,Have Fun !
Wow, I'll definitely have to do some serious charting tonight to look for overbought stocks. These last couple of days have been ridiculous. Should be some good short setups very soon.
11,700 here we come!
wow, looks like this is coming close to a freaking yahoo stock chat boards. Please posting rubbish ... viagra ads, penny stock picks.
Please guys post something that it is meaningful.
Anonymous said...
Wow, I'll definitely have to do some serious charting tonight to look for overbought stocks. These last couple of days have been ridiculous. Should be some good short setups very soon.
11:48 AM
here are a few
BRCM
EBAY
NVDA
QCOM
INTC
TIE
ITS TIME TO GO SHORT, THIS A RALLY BASED ON SOME CPI NUMBER THAT WAS INLINE, I OULD SEE IF IT WAS 0.0 OR 0.1 BUT 0.3 COME ON
LOAD UP on NAZ shorts. 2145 won't be breached. Its already faltering!
BRCM
EBAY
NVDA
QCOM
INTC
TIE
Good post 12:02!
thanks 12:09.
The market is not letting any shorts out or any longs in. A gap up tommorrow would be diasterous for the bears.
Today is another reason to honor your stops and not listen to knuckleheads on message forums.
Hey bsi87: When are you planning to let go of those SDS and DXD positions? :) Mine are hurting me right about now.... which usually means it's time for a reversal, so I'm hanging on for dear life.
Time to load up on QID yet??
-Tony
I think the bears have all been shot.
They're struggling for survival here and trying to take out some loans so they can short the market again. God knows they've had all their money taken away in the last 2 days!
Looks like the funds have deep pockets - lots of cash poured in yesterday and today. How do these guys coordinate their actions? And the other question is, once they put all this money in, who will be left to buy? As far as I've checked, most of the blog sites still think this is options expiration manipulation, and that the weak economy will bring the market down.
tony im long QID, sitting on a loss, will add more at $65 most likely tomorrow, will avg down so my purchase price will be around 72 when im all said and done, all I need is 2-3 days of nasdaq losses to make a profit in QID so im not worried. QID has seen 52 week lows today, as quick as QID has dropped it can rally back to $75+ without a problem. Im not letting today or yesterday get to me. I will avg down and wait patiently for the next drop even if its OCT. Ill wait for 10-15% returns in QID anyday.
as vince said there was no way to see this rally coming, if these numbers were above consensus the dow would be sitting at 10800 and nasdaq at 2025. I was willing to go in 100% long ahead of tuesdays PPI no wayyyy.
HPQ reporting after the bell, this will either keep the rally in place or bring the techs down tomorrow.
Costas: there must be something wrong with that figure. It must be delayed heavily.
Current volume shows 2.3 million, which is the largest volume in over a week.
And there's still 10 minutes until close.
-Tony
correction to 12:57pm post i was not wiling to go in 100% long ahead of tuesdays PPI.
bsi, PSQ is a good one, only moves 1x in opposite direction of the ndx 100. Still own my QID at a loss, not worried yet, may get worried at nasdaq 2300+ but not now. Im sure QID will bounce back to $72.
look at what it did last time at its 52 week low at $70.00
I know historical data doesnt predict future results but here:
8-Aug-06 73.35 75.99 73.10 74.92 461,400 74.92
7-Aug-06 73.55 74.43 72.95 73.70 363,100 73.70
4-Aug-06 70.00 74.10 70.00 72.80 558,100 72.80
Took out 1/2 position on QID just now at $67.20. We'll see how it fares. If we go to $65, I'll average down (cost around $66). The move back to the $70 range should be a nice 5-10% return on that one which could offset some losses.
Anyone who wants a nice short, go look at ESLR. Up 11% today on no news (oversold and bounced off support).
Should be an easy 5% short soon, if not now.
-Tony
PB call me Trader2006. Thats my name, im the one posting about QID, and the rest of the proshares. Havent signed up for blogger yet so im typing as anonymous.
trader 2006
I think we (all retail traders) should team up and screw the mofos.
There should be a way to screw the people whose main aim in life to kill all the retail investors?
Tony will add more around 65 tomorrow, I sold my QLD for a gain today butttttttt way to early. sold at 68.50, now trading above 70.50 so im kind of ticked off about that. This market is way way difficult to time. Not worried, I know QID will be back at 70+ before the end of august.
Trader 2006
last minute jump on the nasdaq, awaiting HPQ tonight and DELL tomorrow night.
Trader 2006
even I added to my yesterday's QID position today at 67.20
I am with you Trader 2006
-Jay Mac
jay mac whats up, i replied to your post yesterday. Im adding another position at 65 most likely tomorrow, its a quick mover, could be sitting at 70+ next week on a good decline in the nasdaq. NASDAQ 2050 would put QID above 73.50+++
Trader 2006
Scratch that earlier ESLR remark. Looking at the downtrending trading channel, it could reach $11 and change right now at the top of the channel. Even though it was a 10% gainer today, I don't think I'd short it just yet.
It's still downtrending and should continue, but this is nearer the bottom than the top and if the market rally continues (albeit with some minor profit taking), then ESLR could very well continue upwards into the high $10 range or more.
Keep it on your screens. ESLR has been a good trading stock in the past. It could revive itself.
-Tony
CHEERS FOR THE BULLS...A BIG CONGRATULATIONS TO THE BULLS...
QID, SDS and DXD are a blessing to the retail investors like us. Instead of shorting stocks you can buy these short ETFs and hang on to them, without being worried about a short squeeze.
Trader 2006, I am going with my gut feeling (bearish) and hence adding up on these short ETFs. I am happy with losses on these rather than buying a small cap which is being pumped up by people like Cramer.
I know that you have to go with the market trend. But give me a break, I tried doing this and have always lost money because of all the manipulations. I think it is better to go with your gut feeling, and there will be a day where you will benefit. In the worst case, this could very well be bcos of all this manipulation. Blessing in disguise.
-Jay Mac
AT,
no one could suggest a technical indicator, its always after the fact that someone is able to point out something. This rally started with a low PPI number thats the only reason why. If it were not for that this market would not be in a 2 day rally.
Trader 2006
AT,
no one could suggest a technical indicator, its always after the fact that someone is able to point out something. This rally started with a low PPI number thats the only reason why. If it were not for that this market would not be in a 2 day rally.
Trader 2006
AT,
no one could suggest a technical indicator, its always after the fact that someone is able to point out something. This rally started with a low PPI number thats the only reason why. If it were not for that this market would not be in a 2 day rally.
Trader 2006
Jay Mac agree, it is great they offered such an ETF, makes it much easier to trade, only way to get that type of movement 2 months ago was buying the Rydex or Profund Mutual funds. Besides that here is a quick story.
When QLD first came out I bought it, traded it and made some good money until i messed up, bought around 66.50 and held it all the way down to 60.70, thought i was never going to see it back where I purchased it, nasdaq was going down every single day... long story short I sold it today for a gain. What im saying is owning QID and seeing a loss as I do today does not worry me, this rally will soon fade and shorts will take over and before you know it I will be selling my QID at 75++++
by the way anyone catch fox saturday mornings when they talk about the markets. Well i was watching it on saturday and a majority of them were BEARISH, i was a bit suprised. I think this is the rally before the next big leg down.
Trader 2006
Let's put this all in perspective:
The Naz has gained 4.4% so far THIS WEEK ALONE.
Do you really think that's reasonable?
This pace cannot possibly continue. We are much nearer to a short term top than a bottom right now.
No, i think we might still have some leg left. I see dow 11,400 and S&P 1320.
TheTrader II
HP is out with good numbers. This can very well drive the madness further. The NASDAQ is up around 70 points in just days. There is no way it can keep going higher at this pace.
I agree regarding inflation. Bernanke talked up a storm back in March-May trying to convince everyone that he was hawkish on inflation. In reality, it was all just a head game to crush the speculative hedge funds in the commodities markets.
We all know now that the Fed is not only dovish on inflation, but is completely controlled by the big money players in the markets. And with Paulson at the helm of the treasury, say goodbye to the US dollar.
Liquidity is the name of the game here. Dollar value and inflation are just pawns in the game. Once the markets start running south, they turn on the faucets to float the market higher. Maintain confidence in fiat currencies at all costs, regardless of inflation risks, by refusing to flinch in the global economic scene.
M3? What M3??
-Tony
Stocktiming.com is calling for entering new long positions here.
Lots of factors adding up to a sustainable rally from here. They deal in long term positions, so it could get interesting for the bears here.
This isn't to say, of course, that it's all up up and away from here. But it does look like it might be time to start buying the dips again. 2100 on the Naz should be retested, as well as 11,250 on the Dow and 1280 on the S&P. If those levels hold up as support, then the market will go higher, regardless of the economic outlook.
-Tony
The market exists to get us thinking one way..and then lurching the other way. Example: this week.
Yes, there are MANY good historical and fundamental reasons the next sizable market move 'should' be down. Enough so that a majority of us have been setting things up for a profit from that down move. So MANY of us that things have become lop sided, and actually caused the opposite, an up move to happen.
But, if we are traders, not investors, we need to keep an open mind to the reality that the market can and WILL do, what it does. In fact, the easier and more comfortable it is to have a certain set of beliefs, the more likely the market will do the opposite. At least on a short term basis.
So where is Tim today? Hope he hasn't lost much.
Mr Market gave the bears an expensive lesson. Why do people forget that if the majority believe the market will go one way, it will go the other. We always blame the bulls when the get overexuberant, but this time the bears were guilty of the same sin.
What a painful day for bears!!
from one dead bear
Alert Alert:
Friendly Reminder- in 2000 the Markets topped out August 22nd and were highly complacent.
The last few days might have been painful for some but puts are cheap and people are forgetting that earnings will suck next round and multiples will contract because global growth is SLOWING.
The risk remain to the downside. I'm going to sit on the sidelines for alittle longer. Worked to hard for my profits
As for follow through, for me today was follow through day. A day up yesterday closing on increasing volume, good.
The next day rising and closing near the highs on, again, increasing volume, better. THe naz outperforming, even better (albeit overall average, but can be attributed to summer.)
Now as I see it, there wasnt any weakness showing up these last two days, they have been really good. However, I do agree with waiting. (waiting for confirmation is smart, after day 4 through 7 i do not know) I dont like fixed numbers. I just want to see the market come down on decreasing volume and showing good behavior around what should be support.
The move up has a better case for it now, but it must be confirmed. next week is light on "expected news" so we will see what happens.
i will just repost :
this sucks
EXPENSIVE LESSON
the markets are in a STRANGE STATE being driven by the FED and Inflation. The inflation is still very strong. The economy is still slowing. Why are the markets going up ?? Markets should price the future. Is the future looking good ?
Only to a bear with shades looking ahead 3-6 months.
Or was that a trick question?
Im still concerned about the $vix being at 3 month lows and close to may lows, and the NAZ needing more repair.
anonymous said CHEERS FOR THE BULLS...A BIG CONGRATULATIONS TO THE BULLS...
I say what kind of f***king dickhead are you to post that? F off back to the hole you crawled from. You Pratt
Changing your name to downosebleed?
Feel the luv. What goes up must come down! patience grasshopper! im busy pulling the horns out of my ........ Tim , give us some wisdom when you get time. Goodluck to the traders. wounded bear
me change to downosebleed? Yeh, thats about right
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