Odelay!

The Bear: "Are you an assassin?"

The Bull: "I'm a soldier."

The Bear: "You're neither. You're an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill."

Needless to say days like this make me happy. Particularly since today's 243 point drop on the Dow was within plain sight......two weeks, to the day........of the lovely 400+ point drop on the Dow on February 27th. A new force may be emerging.


Not that long ago - say, last year - I would have been jumping around talking about how it's the end of the world and the bears are going to own everything, and so forth. No more. I've learned a skosh of humility (and paranoia) since then. So I take it a day at a time. All the same, I grin when I imagine what that Australian touch-hole who called me must be going through. Although I'm assuming he has money to lose, which is probably a false hope.

On the occasions when I drive my family up to the mountains of California, we pass many towns that seem completely populated by those completely grotesque and utterly uniform beige-with-red-tile monstrosities that are advertised as "Homes" in the weekend papers. These vile creations seem to be the work of firms like Toll, Pulte, and Beazer, all of whom seem to be going to hell in a handbasket. Maybe there's a little justice in this sad, sick world after all.


The unwinding of the "buy and flip" insanity is crushing the sub-prime lenders which, in turn, is causing we few.........we happy few........to have good days like today. Here's Fremont....


And the poster child of this debacle, New Century. Thanks, fellers! We appreciate your bringing along the kind of disaster we need to start something really horrific!


The story for the indexes is the same across the board, so pay attention: if they can break the lows set next week, it's party time. If they stabilize and recover, we're probably going to be range-bound by something approximating today's range. Here's the NASDAQ composite with a potential target circled.


The minute by minute charts illustrate how the bullish breakout that was attempting to form completely failed. Disappointed bulls! Our specialty! Die, you weasels....


My favorite index, the Russell 2000, needs to break below $760 for us to continue to celebrate.


Here's a minute chart of the $RUT with more detail. An analysis of the psyches which pushed the market up, and then down, are provided for your convenience.


This is getting old, but here we go - the S&P 500.....


And the minute graph of the same.......


The $XMI is staring in the face of a grand breakout failure.


AutoZone, which has been up about three million percent in the past few months, is finally breaking. I've got puts. Lots of 'em.


Recent favorite CME is throwing lots of green into my account.


Oh, and then there's Google. The company that could do no wrong. These turds paid $1.6 billion for a web site where people could post mostly stolen content. And they haven't been able to figure out how to make money at it. And now they're getting sued for $1 billion. And I've got a hunch there are other big media companies that will follow. Nice goin', braniacs. Talk about buying at the top. Had they waited a few months, they could have picked up the same company for 1/8th of the price, I bet.


Ah, and Goldman. Yep, you've seen this mentioned here many times. My puts on this did great - - I bought a bunch at the top today. In spite of blowout earnings, they fell down hard on huge volume with a bearish engulfing pattern. Yes!


Wow, it's almost too much pleasure to take. Maybe the bulls will wipe some of the grin off our faces tomorrow, eh? We'll see. Deep down, I'm always hoping we're at the start of something very big that will absolutely destroy those creeps. Hope springs eternal! Go get 'em, a'ight?

Beyond Good and Evil

Well, the day started off well enough. A nice initial wallop. Regrettably, the markets clawed their way back up to end in positive territory. Chalk up "Mini Asian Financial Crisis" as yet another thing the markets can shrug off as irrelevant.

Speaking of financial disasters that no one seems to care about, the Financial Report of the United States Government was issued recently. It's nearly 200 pages, but here are a couple of interesting bits:

Despite improvement in both the fiscal year 2006 reported net operating cost and the cash-based budget deficit, the U.S. government’s total reported liabilities, net social insurance commitments, and other fiscal exposures continue to grow and now total approximately $50 trillion, representing approximately four times the Nation’s total output (GDP) in fiscal year 2006, up from about $20 trillion, or two times GDP in fiscal year 2000.

and.......

Given these and other factors, it seems clear that the nation’s current fiscal path is unsustainable and that tough choices by the President and the Congress are necessary in order to address the nation’s large and growing long-term fiscal imbalance.

I found the graph about the Medicare gap particularly interesting. I don't think I've ever seen a y-axis before which measures "billions" of dollars with figures such as $16,000 (e.g. Sixteen Thousand Billion - - otherwise known as Sixteen Trillion). Umm, we are hosed, people. Wake up!


AIV is representative of many REIT stocks, all of which are softening like butter on a midsummer's day.


BAC looks like the uptrend is over.


BLUD, one of my few long suggestions, is still looking mighty purty.


BZH, another long suggestion, seems also poised for a rise.


Although I'm uncertain as to where gold is heading, GFI looks potentially bullish as well. (Wow, three bullish mentions in a row.......)


MDC is easing away from its retracement nicely.


.....as is old favorite MTH.


Many people have asked me to look at QID. I own this now. It doesn't have much of a history to it, but it's a nice double inverse play on the Nasdaq. And check out the volume!


RIMM, which will give everyone a quarterly update after the close Thursday, is starting to slip-slide away again.


And SHLD, long-watched but seldom tried, is looking mighty mushy.


It was disappointing, of course, to see how boldly the markets fought their way back today. The bulls have had a dynamite year (and the dynamite was placed directly under our paws). I guess they're just going to keep pouring salt in the wound until Dick Clark's ball drops at year's end.

The Neutral Position

Greetings from Times Square in New York City, where I am sitting in my hotel room in what must be earth's most uncomfortable chair. How did they pick these things? I think a milking stool would be preferable.

Of course, a down market would be preferable too, but God's not taking any wishes at the moment. The U.S. stock markets went on yet again to new highs in many cases. Below is the Russell 2000, for instance. For those desperate for a sliver of a silver lining in on a very big cloud, you can at least take heart that there was a spinning top today. But.........big deal. The markets have done little but climb for the past five months. It is absolutely unrelenting.


One fellow wrote and made a good point in the comments section. He said he was a bear, but he had basically stayed out of the market during this time. That actually makes abundant sense. You can have a point of view and still wait for the insanity to pass. You might miss the exact top of the market, sure, but more likely you'll miss a lot of pain (such as the last five months). Having a neutral position makes a lot of sense these days. You can have your opinion, but wait until a better time to act on it!

One mild curiousity is how the $VIX has actually been edging up in spite of the market's strength. The graph below shows how the $VIX and the $SPX have been pretty much mirror images of one another. But the past week, the $VIX has started acting differently. I think last Monday's big drop shook things up.


The Major Market Index ($XMI), shown below, is absolutely in a bullish formation. There's no denying it. I have posted this index many times in the past few months. I keep looking for weakness, but it's not happening. If you're a bull, this is exactly the kind of pattern you want to see.


In spite of plenty of bad homebuilder news, homebuilder stocks have shown recent strength. Take a look at BZH.


I'm loathe to point out short ideas right now, but Capital One Financial (COF) seems so toppy to me I am compelled to mention it again. A person purchasing puts on this might want to make the expiration pretty far out there.


NutriSystem (NTRI) is a stock that had been weak earlier this year. But the volume and strength of this stock have shaped up into something that looks plausibly bullish. A breakout above the (roughly) horizontal line shown would be very bullish for NTIR.

Giving Thanks (for nothin!)

Mr. Market (the cornball term I see used in other blogs about the stock market) hasn't been kind to us bears for the past five months. Today was sort of a do-nothing day, although the Dow managed to eke out another 5 point gain. I imagine this Friday's half-day will be equally as thrilling, if not moreso.

I marked up the Russell is kind of an interesting way. Check out what happens after each breakout. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. Hopefully my mark-ups will be helpful to you in your own analysis.


The $XMI, whose breakout really presaged a lot of the recent strength, is clearly losing steam here.


I've got a few ideas to throw your way. Here's AEM, which is a nice play on shorting gold.


BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.


GS continued to be very strong today. But check out the volume. Looks like this is being pushed up by less and less strength.


Hilton (HLT) seems to be nearing the underside of its trendline. I've pointed out the various times it has "bounced" off this trendline (for both upward or downward motions).


SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.


A short play on energy is probably better realized via XLE as opposed to OIH, the latter of which is a mess right now.


I appreciate all the nice comments lately. It's encouraging to get such positive feedback. Many thanks, and - - miserable market aside - - I hope everyone enjoys a feast tomorrow with those for whom they care.