Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Giving Thanks (for nothin!)

Mr. Market (the cornball term I see used in other blogs about the stock market) hasn't been kind to us bears for the past five months. Today was sort of a do-nothing day, although the Dow managed to eke out another 5 point gain. I imagine this Friday's half-day will be equally as thrilling, if not moreso.

I marked up the Russell is kind of an interesting way. Check out what happens after each breakout. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. Hopefully my mark-ups will be helpful to you in your own analysis.

The $XMI, whose breakout really presaged a lot of the recent strength, is clearly losing steam here.

I've got a few ideas to throw your way. Here's AEM, which is a nice play on shorting gold.

BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.

GS continued to be very strong today. But check out the volume. Looks like this is being pushed up by less and less strength.

Hilton (HLT) seems to be nearing the underside of its trendline. I've pointed out the various times it has "bounced" off this trendline (for both upward or downward motions).

SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.

A short play on energy is probably better realized via XLE as opposed to OIH, the latter of which is a mess right now.

I appreciate all the nice comments lately. It's encouraging to get such positive feedback. Many thanks, and - - miserable market aside - - I hope everyone enjoys a feast tomorrow with those for whom they care.


Anonymous said...


Thanks. Wish you could show a chart of the M3 since I think thats the only thing making this old dog run up hill for so long.

Tony MT

Anonymous said...

Isn't HLT more of a Triple Top Breakout than a Cup with Handle?

The rationale for the markets staying up now is partly the M3, but it's also from underperforming fund managers trying to catch up with the leaders.

Not a good scene, to be sure. But certainly one that could continue for quite some time. There will ALWAYS be fast money out there chasing stocks. Always. And every step higher that the market goes, there continues to be more and more chasing.

Sure, there are pockets of strength here and there, but on the whole, the broad market is doing a whole lot of nothing. The leaders from earlier in the year have been tossed into the trash. Only a few of the ultra-large cap stocks are doing well these days. And they're way overpriced right now.

Tom T.

Anonymous said...

With the DOW 30 comprised of the largest of the large, when will the law of large numbers take effect? I mean how can these monsters keep growing at such a rapid pace which Wall St. is now pricing them at? Doesn't profit growth average out at around the growth in GDP?

Anonymous said...

TK . . .toshi:
you are so more exciting when the bears have grip. HLT . . .got a call today offering a super deal to premier members in several vacation venues. While I don't think that make a quarter, I like the company's aggressiveness to get more business and the hope to cross sell more business.

Think the bull has good control for a while. Will be bullish for a while, but like your ideas. My guess is that these posts will become SUPER popular in the beginning of the second quarter when all starts to realize the middle class squeeze!

Good trading - surfin' dude (did I mention you have great links!)


Anonymous said...

Happy Thanksgiving to Tim and the bear team.

Anonymous said...


I want my money back! I've been reading this blog since the last bubble crashed and have made nothing in the markets and it is YOUR FAULT!


Anonymous said...

Always wondered what happened to that m3 data and why all of the sudden they dont publish thos numbers any more. This market looks so overbought yet it inches up higher each day. Tomorrow is black friday and just this word alone should push the indices up again. Should be a slow day since its only a half a day but it should be an interesting one. Keep up the good blog TIM and as for the russel I hope it paints the exact picture its painted each time it has run this far. IWM at 70 would be sweet.

listenhear said...

Ron thinks he is something doesn't he?

What he doesn't realize is that an ape can trade this market - because it goes up every day - this is what the Fed wants - they are intervening.

Any idiot can make long trades in this market.
You don't even need technicals.

So Ron...
Give us a break...
Or go start a Hedge fund like everyone else is doing.

Everyone has become an investment genius.

5 Years from now Ron and these current investment geniuses will be selling time shares like Case of AOL fame...

z-stock said...

“I have an opinion”
When I see guys ranting
like a wanna be star of
Jerry Springer’s next movie ,
I think it defeats the purpose of this site…
When you rant against someone,
It makes you’re world a little colder.

“And now for some business.”
Gm stock fell, so it’s a good call candidate.
With very little risk…
At double bottom, I’d say zero risk..
It’s eps current, forward and beyond
Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly,
Nothing but up…
Airline stocks…have
(similar eps history)
Leh put ( no eps upgrades this month)..
But that could change…
good candidate at double top..
Attn: Tim’s been calling this one..
Hydl put , at double top, with little risk…
Hydl 07 eps estimates (pundits/analysts),
down 1 cent last two weeks…
Attn: Tim’s been calling this one…

Anonymous said...

title should be "Giving thanks to american troops for nothing"

if I drive recklessly and crash into a crowd, would anyone thank me.

that is what bush & co did. recklessly went into iraq and killed 3000+ americans, killed 500000 iraqi's. took the country back 25 years. the kids don't go to school in iraq, the universities are closed just because bush & co drove recklessly.

Anonymous said...

I wish Barbra would get that damn site fixed.

Anonymous said...

To 1:34 pm,

A courageous person would sign their post with name and address. If you were brave enough to spout off with rantings and ravings then be brave enough to put your contact info down. Our servicemen and women are doing what you are not capable of doing - their duty to country. Take a trip back in time to see why we have a country that is like no other in the world. We have stood up for liberty time and time again to protect freedom and liberty throughout the world. I would also ask you this? Where do you get your information from regarding a free Iraq? The right-wing media or from first hand experience? I and my sons on the other hand have been there mulitple times and are preparing to return again. Things are NOT what you proclaim. The media paints a picture that is not accurate or true. I often think that if there were no audience for their bias reporting that the insurgency would dwindle away. Here is the irony of it all - we are also willing to go and serve there or wherever we are ordered by our country to go for people just like you - cowardly non-contributing to society misfits. You have always existed and unfortunately always will. You serve as examples to what we never want to become!!! I also hope that whatever you do in life fails and fails hard. You do NOT deserve to be rewarded. America will be far better off if you would just leave - here's an idea! Let us take a trip together - to Iraq. We want to watch you change what you say is so terrible. What say you? Want to take a trip?

Have a Happy Thanksgiving - NOT for you!!! I wish nothing but harm and failure to bestow you and those like you. You are not worthy to live in ths country nor partake in it's goodness and wealth.

From a Patriot who cares enough to speak out!!!

Bill Hanson
Fayetteville, NC

Anonymous said...

Thank you Bill, whereas I wish no harm to the pinhead who blames the military for doing what their Commander in Chief orders them to do, I would be happy to see "them" move to Europe.


Now can we get back to what this blog is for.

Anonymous said...

Hi Bill

I don't think it is a great idea to follow blindly a "commander in chief" who blatantly lies. the "commander in chief" cares more about his rich friends in the oil industry than you or any soldiers in iraq.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:26

"I don't think", the first correct statement you've made tonight.

stealthelephant said...

I'm a first-time commenter but a long-time fan. I have several observations for you:
1. Your comment section is marred by a few selfish people that detract from the value of your website. You dont' need rants or political discussion on your website. Is it possible you could screen these out and only post the comments that pertain to your analysis or technical analysis n general?
2. Your bull calls have been excellent. I am surprised you haven't selected more charts for the website with bullish patterns or signals, particularly since your November 14 blog "Burying the Bear" The GOOG was especially prescient.
3. Your befuddlement as to the strength of the market is shared universally. It is definitely an opinion of the market and as such it is a suspect conclusion. I have been careful to eliminate any weak short positions that do not work immediately in this environment. Have you considered delving into cycle work or Elliott Wave analysis to add more precision to your market timing?

Thanks Tim. It is a pleasure reading your columns. --Tom

Anonymous said...

Today will be the big drop that no one saw coming because everyone is at hoem with family on this Friday. Its going to get ugly next week guys and the bears need to take charge and spatter blood in the streets.

Anonymous said...

Nothing like a down day, a nice triple digit loss would be nice. This is an early gift.

Anonymous said...

What an amazing market, opens down only to start making its way higher again. RIMM new highs, AAPL new highs etc etc etc......tried daytrading RMBS, had it at 22.50 wasnt moving so I sold it and within 10 mins it was at 23. Go figure.



Anonymous said...

and how was Iraq ever a threat to the US? Where are those supposed weapons of mass destruction? Quite civilized, Bill, you are a hired killer, don't get that confused with being patriotic. What the US is doing to Iraq, is the same as what gangs are doing in inner cities.

No idea how these post end up on o TA blog.

Trader Fred
Lower Manhattan

Denver_Investor said...

Tim, I think you are wrong on AEM. It is the lowest cost gold producer on earth, at least from my research. It's mines are in Mexico, Canada and Finland; very little political risk. And gold is taking off again.

The stock today had a triple top breakout.

It's NOT a short. At least in my opinion. It's my favorite long.


Anonymous said...

Nicely stated stealthelephant. Apparently Trader Fred cannot get a hint. That is right Fred, he was talking about you. He his trying to tell you that if we want to read hate Bush speeches we would just watch CBS or go to


Anonymous said...

I agree on AEM being a breakout long. Looks like clear sailing from here.

Regarding the market: did anyone REALLY think the indices would close red today????

I mean, let's be real, the markets can ONLY GO UP!


Anonymous said...

How do we crawl up to positive everyday no matter what the heck is going on in the financial system.

Anonymous said...

The "Mr. Market" anthropomorphism comes from Ben Graham. Buffet continues to use it as well.