Thursday, November 02, 2006

Five in a Row

Five down days on the Dow in a row. Nice. Let's hope for a sixth tomorrow. A solid week of downers would be sweet. Of course, all eyes are on the election next week. The market can have perverse and surprising reactions. A huge victory for the Dems would supposedly damage the market. But let's remember Clinton's 1992-2000 tenure wasn't exactly bad for stocks.

My $MSH puts are slowly gaining strength. There's a lot of room to tumble, but there's no earnest downward momentum yet.

The same holds true for the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Today's "spinning top" candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty.

For anyone bearish on gold, check out AEM. It looks really vulnerable to a swing down.

FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.

HYDL is a honey of a head and shoulders pattern. Full retracement has been completed.

Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) has decidedly busted through its supporting trendline and is high enough to be a relatively safe play.


The fog will hopefully clear by next Wednesday. Thanks for taking the time to stop by.


Des said...


Thanks for more compelling charts. I've just about given up on LEH Bros., but PNRA has worked out rather nicely, wouldn't you say? Thank you for another money-maker. (Here's hoping CCL and UNP can join the downward party.)

specul8 said...

Hey Tim,

I nailed COF - it showed up on one of my Investools Bearish Searches and then here... I figured it was meant to be...

On a different note, I am starting to get very concerned about the new toolbox searches not working.

Today, one of my daily searches in the old toolbox is bringing up crap as well...

Not good - Pretty soon I may be tempted to short IEDU - do you know that one =) - Just Kidding...

But seriously, can you shed any light on this.



z-stock said...

ok tim,
I’ve seen cof tank, you called it.
I’ve seen oih tank at the h&s ,
now I see why you like h&s so much.
I’ve seen leh tank, you called it.
are, icf ,ati, …all tanked….
I concur on hydril….64/65
great entry price…h&s rules...

Nov 6,7,8…..
market uncertainty…..
bears best friend…

apol sttx adm

Andrew755 said...

Coulda Shoulda Woulda..... I had my hand on the mouse for Whole Foods @ 65.... boy am I ticked. Grrrr..... it's like the last two months of constant up have done damage to me, mentally. haha.

I'm selling those SPY calls I yesterday on weakness. I think this rally this morning fails at which point I will look for a couple quick trades....

Sanjay Sola said...

rate cuts off the table for quite a while with the employment news. CAT warns about the housing market in 2007. commodities (metals, corn, etc) are going up, so the Fed is in a tight spot. inflation persists, but the economy ain't growing. productivity is down, wage costs going up, so margins have peaked. and very few companies are guiding higher now. they beat the estimates but don't really raise guidance much higher for the next year.

hello staglfation.

costas1966 said...

Nice analysis Sanjay sola, although I will have to say that the employment number is totally bogus. Now lets hope that the market will subscribe to that analysis of yours.

bsi87 said...

re:TLT. Glad I closed my long bond position a couple days ago.

Lotta bullish gold talk, gold to 1000 bucks etc. I think there's a chance it can get there but with no rate cuts, gold is at the top of a ST range. I like to think about the unexpected so my guess is gold retests that 560-570 area. I eat my own cooking so I'm buying some SPPIX at the close.

Always buying opportunities. RRGB has puked up 18X daily volume. Ditto WFMI. Both at or below 30 RSI. They ain't going outta business. JMO.

Entry will be critical.

Sanjay Sola said...

What's that i see? Nasdaq below 2325 (20 day average). see you at the 50 day.

Sanjay Sola said...

Panera is below the 50 day on volume. worth checking out.

Tim Knight said...

"Today, one of my daily searches in the old toolbox is bringing up crap as well... "

I can't really help on old toolbox stuff. On new toolbox stuff, just drop me a line - tim.knight at