Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Grind

These days I tend to be alternating between longish posts (like yesterday's, which caused quite a stir) and short ones (like today's). I just can't speak at great length about a market which nudged up another five points.

The time around Thanksgiving is usually given to upward movements. People get excited about a pleasant family holiday, I suppose. It will take virtually no strength to nudge the markets into new highs again.


The Russell 2000 is much the same picture. Like the Dow, it is positioned to make not just multi-year highs, but lifetime highs. *Sniff*.


There's no denying it, Google (GOOG) is a gorgeous chart. I mentioned this a while back, as I suggested GOOG for a long position. This company seems to be enjoying the "perfect storm." As with all things, it will stumble someday. Maybe next year. Maybe ten years from now. Who knows. But at the moment, it's the company that can seem to Do No Wrong.


Below is GS. I have nothing particular to say about it, either long or short. But I think the chart speaks volumes about this market. A huge, well-known investment bank up over 100% in just over a year. And virtually a straight line up since the middle of this year. Breathtaking.


I'm moving more and more into cash and more and more resigned to hang up my trading for a few months. It doesn't necessarily mean I'll hang up the blog. But this market is a little too bewildering to trade.

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Don't go anywhere, besides I too like the Russell 2000 and your take on it. And remember, you'll sell more books if you keep blogging. Not that I want to get those rich get richer comments going again. Besides I see Barbra's web site is up and going again.

Tony Montana

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Riddle me this Batman? If you are ready to go to cash and hang up your trading for a few months then what you seem to be saying is that all the tools that your gave birth to (Phophets.net) and all your years of experience and knowledge are of no use. I would then assume that you will be giving back the subscription fees from your Phophets.net service as well? Disappointing statements from a person of whom so many look to for direction and confirmation. If I a mere novice can make the money I have made in the past several months you all talk so badly about (Bullish Market) then I should then start my own Blog site and write a book. I have had no trouble finding good trades each and everyday that I have wanted to trade. I trade both options and stocks (long and shorts) at some pretty significant volumes with a 50-60 percent success rate or better. I also have several trading friends who are doing the same. We will await the news of your book cancellation and of the return of fees.

Enjoy your retirement in defeat.

Sincerely,

Ron - A self taught trader of technicals

Anonymous said...

Tools are tools. Tim is providing a service through those tools. His service is NOT to advise anyone on stock picking, nor even how to USE his charts.

That's like calling up Microsoft and demanding your money back on Office 2006 because they're not showing you how to profit from their tools.

Anonymous said...

NOT my point knucklehead! It was to say that if they were NOT working for Tim then why charge for something that must not work? If he can not find picks from his own design then it must not work. I would not advise anyone on a stock - it must be your own nor should he. That is the trouble with most sites, the vultures come looking for freebies. Take the time to study and develop your own style and technique - you will live long and prosper!!!

Have a narrow minded night,

Ron

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Thanks for what you do.

It's a free site so let them go bitch & moan somewhere else for nothing.

Anon 5:44, good to see your probation came through.

R41

Anonymous said...

Ugh . . . another up day. Can't really figure which way we go. I have been doing well bottom fishing so I may stay with that as the retail sector continues to grow with year over year comps going up . . . the US economy continues to do well.

Anyway, my last two shorts are dust . . . but my last 7 longs are golden . . .

Anonymous said...

Ron, you're a moron.

Tim doesn't have a service that tells you how to interpret charts. His Prophet tools only ALLOW you to MAKE the charts. It's 100% up to YOU to do the work.

Go over to StockCharts.Com and start complaining over there. Or go complain about TC2000's charting software. They're just tools, not automated fool-proof money-making software.

If you still don't understand what I'm saying, then go bury your head further into the sand, because you clearly have no comprehension ability whatsoever.

trader said...

Hey Annon 5:44,

Is this really Mel Gibson ?

Tim Knight said...

Ron,

I didn't say I was going to stop the blog. I said I might stop trading for a while. I tend to prefer bearish trades. That's my problem, not yours. I will still offer my views on the market and specific stocks.

As for Mel Gibson, I've deleted his post.

- Tim

Anonymous said...

this market is something else, another up day. That GS chart is just incredible, imagine the bonuses being handed out on wallstreet in just another month, makes me crazy. Billions and BILLIONSSSSS worth of bonuses being handed out this year....Could just imagine what some of those 7 figure bonuses will buy....

besides that i dont think we will see another triple digit loss for sometime. I have tried to predict this market and have missed out a bunch of times. Im waiting for volatility to come back into this market. Pretty pathetic to see the market unchaged for hours today just stuck as if a ton of money is trying to keep it green.

Today I also came across a few forums showing a nice detailed chart of the day before thanksgiving and the day after and how the market tends to see gains. I guess just buy because its christmas and retail sales will probably be above average helping the markets to new highs every single day from now until Jan. Then when Jan comes we get that nice "JAN EFFECT" you know the one that boosts stocks even higher.....I feel like throwing in the towel my self but will hold on as tight as I can from now until 1st QU of 2007.


TRADER 2006.

PB said...

Dear Ron:

With all due respect, you take Tim a little too seriously. Blogs are informal meeting places for people to share views. What I think Tim meant by his comment to sit this market out for a little bit is that the market makes 'no sense' these last few months. Also, the market just might sit here and vegetate, so trading options would be useless. Also, I didn't have a chance to read the Mel Gibson post, but it was probably anti-semetic and referred to your cheapness?

By the way, do you ever see commercials about cars, or deodorants that are 'supposed' to make you attractive to women? Just turn on your TV and you'll see some. Now what your asking from Tim is like asking these companies to give you your money back because the chicks didn't beat a path to your door for wearing that cologne or driving that car!

Pls be a gent and share some of your stock ideas then?

Matthew said...

Ron is an ignorant son of a bitch. I hope you lose all your gains and fall of a bridge with that kind of talk. You are half the man Tim is and shouldnt have bought an IPO like NMX at its peak of 150 because the dot com bubble has busted Ronnie. Show some respect and stop watching Cramer for your hot stock tips. Booyah Ron.

Anonymous said...

trader 2006

Wall St. bonuses are in the order of $36 BILLION this year. That's about $175K for Wall Streeter. I can hear the Colombians celebrating now! Tony Montana, for December the world IS yours! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

Ok, back to the markets, they always seem to do what the majority DOES NOT expect it too. For if the majority expected the markets to go up, they would already be positioned for that event and hence, this expectation would already be priced in. As for the holiday shopping season, any good news shd already be priced in to this market as it's done nothing but go up. So now, with 'everyone' expecting a santa rally, we could easily see a decline. The problem with a decline here is that there are still a good number of bears out there ready and willing to go short at the drop of a hat. So what we might end up with for the next few months is some sideways action like we have seen this week. Just a lot of treading water but not much action nor volatility. By Q1 '07, it shd be clear to anyone with half a brain that things are not as rosy as the stock pushers would have you believe. Therefore, a sell off is coming, I just can't pinpoint if it will be before year-end, or early '07 (sorry, my christal ball is in service at the moment!)

- Trader Fred

PS --- THIS BLOG RULES!

TIM FOR PRESIDENT!!!

z-stock said...

Tim
I can’t find one thing to short today,
Oih/Xle at 58/59, maybe?
Fto and Mro,
Let them gouge the public first.
right before the Holidays,
I want to short the gold stocks,
but the pundits/analysts
keep raising their eps estimates.
So, will wait for
double top on Gdx.

The Vix dec.$11 call looks good.
Single digit vix.
Isn’t that like, every 76 years.
Or, should I wait, for Vix at 5?
z-stock

Anonymous said...

Trader Fred,

Fix the stinkin' crystal ball, I need all the help I can get.

Mr. Montana
(from Wyoming)

Anonymous said...

Re: "hanging up your trading for a few months"

Nah, you won't. As soon as the market writhes vaguely on the downside, you'll be back swinging with your new short recommendations.

Just like when you said you were "throwing in the towel" the other day, you were back the very next day with more shorts.

~ Nona said...

Tim, I love -- love! -- your imaginative blog even though my bias is toward the long side. That said, I've stayed pretty much sidelined myself; I'm almost half in cash. The cycle could continue to power upward, I suppose; I'm just not counting on it. I'll patiently wait.

Anonymous said...

This market should be re-named "THE RATCHET"

only one way movements ... UP!

Anonymous said...

i forgot dell is leading the markets today, what a damn joke....here is a company being investigated by the SEC...stock has risen over 50% since touching new 52 week lows......


just read some facts that its been nearly 100 TRADING DAYS without a 1% drop.....this is insane...nearly 100 trading days....

Markets at new highs right now....

If i can hold my longs through most of the down turn we had back this past summer and make money when everything came back....im going to hold most of my inverse funds and a couple of shorts. Enough is Enough.


TRADER 2006.

Anonymous said...

Tim..I'm waiting for at LEAST one 1% down day in the s&p or dow to do anything on the short side. We haven't had one since mid July. That rule would have kept us out on the short side during this whole crazy advance.

Until the Fed cuts back on liquidity this thing isn't going to die. A 10% increase in M3 fuels this, and no one is talking about the downside of all the liquidity down the road, but there is a price to be paid...eventually.

The gold miners have been having some real nice up moves. Take a look there if you need to trade..on the long side. This is seasonally the strong time of year for gold.

Denver_Investor

ps to Ron: learn some manners dammit. you only make yourself look like a total ass with your rude comments.

Anonymous said...

DELL's numbers only look good because of the terrible comparo to last year when they had to take a massive write-off. Anyways, if we finish today at +/- 5 points on the DOW, then this will be the third day we get a DOJI candlestick. Not sure what to make of it but it better damn mean a fukkin' drop!

Happy Turkey!

PB said...

screw the 1% correction, Gimme a 10%!!! We haven't had one of those in a while. I think we're on the second longest stretch ever for days WITHOUT a 10%. I'll take that decline in 3 batches please! And then to really fuck with 'em, keep grindin' lower on a daily basis until they start to wonder out loud why stocks haven't gone up 1% in a day for soo looong!!!

Sound familiar?

Anonymous said...

about 93 days now without a 1% correction, read on some forum that the markets havent seen a 2% drop in over 900 trading days....

Anonymous said...

Tim,

It'll be OK with the rest of us if you want to delete the ignorant anonymous postings from Ron. He's just jealous and probably doing well with his paper trades.

Doug

Anonymous said...

Why did you erase my post? The deliberate ranting style used to formulate that masterpiece of revolting revelations was meant more for shock-n-awe than to offend anyone. You can’t expect those of us in the know to sit back idly while the Abbey Jewseph Cohens of the world go on trumpeting everyday how strong this market looks. To all of you – long and/or short – the only candle stick formation you need to be able to recognize to understand the trickery of this market is the eight-candle stick minora.

Anonymous said...

hey 2:07pm -- I believe you made a spelling mistake on Abbey's middle name!

Anyhoot, just be happy that you live in the Jewnited States of America!

Listenhear said...

Ron thinks he is something doesn't he?

What he doesn't realize is that an ape can trade this market - because it goes up every day - this is what the Fed wants - they are intervening.

Any idiot can make long trades in this market.
You don't even need technicals.

So Ron...
Give us a break...
Or go start a Hedge fund like everyone else is doing.

Everyone has become an investment genius.

5 Years from now Ron and these current investment geniuses will be selling time shares like Case of AOL fame...

eric said...

i really enjoy your analysis... what about aapl short tommorrow? looks like a rounding top.looking for a retracement to 20 ema (86.65)?