Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Spasm

Today's post will be relatively lame, unlike yesterday's really long and cool post. Read it if you haven't already.

In typical fashion, the market did a total spasm when the Fed did their announcement today. First the market fell hard. Then went up. Then fell down. then finally went up again, staying there, and closing up to yet another record high (rolling eyes).


There are a few interesting charts that are busting into new highs off of pretty bullish patterns. One of them is BBD.


Another, with a similar pattern, is Carpenter (CRS):


I'm going to give Sotheby's (BID) another try on the short side.


The market's just going to keep rising until it stops, folks. Nothing more to it. It'll be interesting to see how Friday goes, since there are some key retail figures coming out.

25 comments:

JakeGint said...

What? No Trek?

I think the merger environment is driving this thing. The private equity guys are the farthest thing from dummies, and they realize this credit pool is not going to be hanging around for much longer, so they are stuffing their pipelines with buyouts as fast as they can. Everywhere from the middle market to the Texas Pacific sized behemoths, they are converting their carry trade cash into hard assets both public and private.

It ain't over until the first medium sized bank or two cries "uncle!"

(And doesn't get taken over for its troubles)

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim,

Another 10:30 am takeoff ....no one is going to look to see whether the tresury is buy futures every morning at 10:30 am ? The breakout in the NDX looks like the final straw to give into the Bull. Now 100% long and buying options to Jan 08 with a small % short for that "correction" if it ever comes. I am going to be 50 years old so hopefully it will be in my lifetime.

Tom

http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com

Chuck said...

I know I'm a day late, but Devo? Man, that brings back memories. You must be as old as me.

plunger said...

WTF jakelbgl? why you talking shit about me elsewhere? I dont' know what the hells been happening, but I ain't the catcher guy or whoever you been saying I am.I've never even been to the blog, but I can come over there any time you want me to, and we can start where we left this thing off a few weeks ago, and trust me, it will all be posted as plunger. I ain't ashamed of battling wits with you jake, done it before, and it was quite funny and fun.

let me ask you one question jakelawnboygayland, after all the insults and verbal beating I gave you here, all posted under the name PLUNGER, why the hell wouldn't I use my name elsewhere? Shall we revisit all the posts from past where i humiliated and browbeat you til you quit and I posted ALL as PLUNGER. I got no problem posting anywhere as plunger.

If you want start again we can start here or there dipshits, just let me know. but if not, quit bashing me elsewhere if you ain't got the balls to do it around me.

Anyone who has read my posts here will probaly agree that i may say mean or stupid things sometimes, but I ain't afraid to say them and I never post anon. , never have, even when it was allowed here, and you of all people should know that!

I didn't hide then Jake and I ain't hiding now! here I am, put up, shut up or go back to other blog and talk shit.

JakeGint said...

You are a psychotic. Go find someone else to play with.

____________

I apologize, everyone. This nut is on another board under a different name making a nuisance of himself.

I'll refrain from poking him here, as he's gotten a bit graphic already.

plunger said...

what the hell are you talking about jake, you are off you rocker man,. I just made the point that I will post any where you choose as plunger, just as here, Just because I hurt you feelings here and you went somewhere else and starting spouting off, and someone else pissed on you, don't bring it back here and try to drag me into it.

I don't need to post anon. like some and I've made that point here with you before.

Your still sad jake, go away again,

Greg said...

SP Rise after 10.30 - apparently that is when the buybacks kick in -for some reason buybacks in the 1st + last hour of trading are frowned upon. Interesting bit of info picked up from none other than J Cramer on one of the web videos - I understand that he may not be a popular person on this board but he has a lot of insight into the workings of the US market - particularly the oil related + financial stocks at the moment I think. Following his most recent public suggestions is a recipe for buying too high obviously - apparently some use them as short suggestions -v short term! I have been mostly taking profits recently as market is obviously overbought.
http://hoctrade.blogspot.com/

plunger said...

and don't be spouting that i just popped up here. I've been coming to this blog a helluva' lot longer than you. I was here along time ago, in the day's of hurricane5 and costas, and all the rest,long before you came and started crap. So go play your pathetic games somewhere else please, for everybody' sake

plunger said...

Tim, Didn't the earning jump scare you away from bid? I know I got wrecked in my june puts and still leary even tho the chart still looks toppy.

Are you playing leaps in some of these stocks? I notice some of the charts are long,long term and wondering how far out you play it. I know you've said two months out in the past but some of these tops look like they'll take some time to play out.

just curious

plunger said...

I'm still short TRA, just tightened my stops up now to @ top of the flag pattern.

still long A but tight trailing stops now too.

and I like your prior short COF right here as well. Just back at the 50D MA with a nice candle today,

plunger said...

Tim, and rest
look at the chart of PTNR for a long and give me your thoughts.

I like the consolidation, high tight flag, but seems a little extended from MA. I will watch it for a breakout above $17.20 though. I think it's good for a nice run up from there.

Dennis said...

Well, there is really no point in doing any fundamental or technical analysis because there is simply too much money around. The money just wants to come into the market. So every piece of fundamental data will be interpreted positively. Long SPY.

plunger said...

I agree dennis, unless the TA is bullish, then it still helps.

I know Jakegint, was bashing some else about this earlier being bogus, but heres a portion of the article in today's IBD :

Investors Business Daily, May 8,2007,
"M&A activity in the US is on pace to top $1.8 trillion during this years first quarter, a 27% increase from prior year. Experts see no slowdown ahead..."

It goes on to say that the cause of this:
"much of the M&A activity is being driven by deal-hungry banks..."

" banks are encouraging companies to make deals because there's so much money out there."

this just drives home the point of the world being awash in liquidity right now. might as well not fight it.

4profit said...

Tim, Now you can relax! You need not worry about the market going up anymore. Abbey Joseph Cohen is calling for 14,000. (video on the front page of cnbc.com) I feel so much better now. The market has peaked. I'm sure you remember her beating the drums in 2000. Right before the kiss of death. I will sleep good tonight.

sam said...

http://www.slate.com/id/2165930/nav/tap1/

Check out.
Great article's on Bubbles. Sammy

Tim Knight said...

Gee, that's funny. No taunting bull posts today. How about that.

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, Now you can relax! You need not worry about the market going up anymore. Abbey Joseph Cohen is calling for 14,000. "

You may have misinterpreted the interview. The subject matter was: "How many years would need to transpire before a human male would consider tongue-kissing AJC?" The consensus was 14,000, although my call-in vote was much higher.

Jamage said...

uh, a week or so ago, I mentioned Mohawk (MHK) as a possible short; did anybody else note it's action yesterday? WTF?!! Was that cleaning out the shorts? Rumours of merger-ation?

Yuri said...

DJ seems like it is about to take a big fall - back to the $36 level from whence it came. This deal is dead, dead, dead. This family's identity is Dow Jones Co., and they are not letting big Rupert Murdoch take that away, at any price.

ericbolling said...

You must be pissed that the Russell jumped up yesterday and stopped out your position. Now is a great chance to recover and go long with us Tim.

Locster said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Locster said...

Tim, not sure if you spotted my comment regarding Jeremy Grantham's take on market conditions, but there is a good overview of his thoughts in this brief article:

http://blog.iii.co.uk/?p=169

locster

11:44 AM

Tim Knight said...

"You must be pissed that the Russell jumped up yesterday and stopped out your position. "

I didn't get stopped out. I CLOSED the position, as I said, half an hour into the open. And, since you're so interested in my personal finances, I re-opened a similar position near the peak yesterday, which I closed out at a terrific profit about 30 minutes ago.

You do what you want to do, and I'll do what I want to do. Just stop the childish harassment.

Tim Knight said...

Thanks for the link, Locster.

It's interesting how most people post interesting comments and helpful links, whereas a few permabulls just can't let a day go by without hurling stones.

4profit said...

"You may have misinterpreted the interview. The subject matter was: "How many years would need to transpire before a human male would consider tongue-kissing AJC?" The consensus was 14,000, although my call-in vote was much higher."

Too funny! Are you sure, however, that you needed to say human male? I'm pretty sure human would have worked just as well. Either case I think 14,000 is truly a low estimate.

Gotta love today. Hope it continues...