I'm not afraid.
I used to be. I really did. It's hard not to be fearful when a market has completely lost its mind. It's hard not to be afraid when tens of millions of Chinese investors - not a one of which has any clue what he's doing - are running around predicting their market will reach 8,000 now that it's reached 4,000. And it's hard not to be afraid when it seems the whole world has discovered how to print trillions of dollars (without inflation) that they want to dedicate solely to buying up companies.
But I'm not afraid.
A day like today is why. Because the Dow can reach yet another all-time high, and my portfolio.......which is 100%, All-American, red-blooded shorts and puts......goes up handsomely. And I can grab my XXL codpiece, stare the market right in the eye, and shout an obscenity which rhymes with "Truck Blue!".
Because the fact is, folks, if I can make money in a market like this, God help you bulls when it actually goes down. Because your days are numbered.
I find the Chinese prediction of 8,000 on the Shanghai index particularly amusing. I know that 8 is considered a lucky number in China. So - naturally - there's no reason the market won't zoom to 8,000, is there? Added to which, I read that many investors there decide that a share of stock is a good buy if it costs less than a portion of pork meat.
I've decided if my loyal readers and I decide to seek haven in a safe zone, we shall flee to the district of Yaroslavl Oblast in Russia. Their flag, my hand to God, looks like this:
A bear carrying an axe. We, my friends, have found our homeland.
Speaking of homes, the widely-reported slump in housing has not hit my beloved Palo Alto. On the contrary, prices have never been higher. Just a few doors down from my house is the following charmer. It features no landscaping. 950 square feet of living spaces. And sixty year old plumbing. It can be yours for $2 million. (Actually, I'm joking about that - - because it was snapped up a few days after they put a sign out in front, and it can, in fact, not be yours at this time).
The Dow Jones 30 - which is far and away where all the strength is these days - tried very hard to push its way up to the 13,500 mark. After ascending nearly 150 points, it went completely flaccid, and it wound up 37, creating this lovely shooting star.
Here's an update on my positions (newbies - click any image for a bigger version). Bold items are puts. Others are shorts. Not a long in the group (although I will mention that my long suggestion of ONT continues to explode higher).
My short in Akamai (AKAM) did great today, and what is more important, it is set up for a spectacular fall from here.
Acuity Brands (AYI) also has a hell of a lot of open air to collapse.
AutoZone (AZO) finally - FINALLY! - took a tumble. Much more to come, I think.
My puts in Bear Stearns also performed nicely.
Merrill Lynch is starting to deteriorate, now that it has made a base camp for itself at this key Fibonacci retracement level.
Lastly, the NASDAQ QQQQs slumped badly, just as my beloved Russell 2000 did.
So in spite of calming inflation news (ummm, fellers, how much good is a .25% interest cut going to do you when the economy is irrevocably crumbling?) it was a terrific day. Let's have more of the same.
I'm not afraid!
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
I'm not afraid.