Thursday, June 29, 2006

What Would Constitute a Reversal

This morning's triple-point rally on the Dow puts the short-term bearish case at risk. If the Dow crosses above 11,131 (which is possibly in the post-Fed gymnastics) it will create a small series of higher highs and higher lows, as well as pushing the index well past a Fib retracement, that will seriously damage the short-term bearish stance. I've drawn an arrow to illustrate the possible new trend, should that level be crossed.


Anonymous said...

markets up because????

I think we head back down. .25 raise to 5.25 with more rate hikes in august will keep the market in a trading range. I see more of a chance at dow 10700 and nasdaq 2025 before I see 6 year highs. Federal reserve will do a .25 with no pause. If we get a pause I would be shocked. However I would not rule out a 50bp and pause. Market could put in a 2-3% rally in a week. Im thinking of going short some stocks into the the 2pm meeting. What do you think. Maybe buy a Short proshare ETF. I think PSQ was mentioned here last week.

bsi87 said...

To see the DJIA rally in the AM with a strong GDP number is a headfake IMHO. DJIA would need to close above 11,130 on heavy volume to undo the bear case but that alone would not make for a bull case. DJIA was up over 100 pts, 75 in the first hour. The 3pm to 4pm close will be crucial to see if the big boys want to stay long over a long holiday weekend.

Naz would need to break and close above 2150 on heavy volume.

Anonymous said...

think the market will trade up 75-100 points until 2:15pm when the fomc decision is made, something positive and the dow could put in a 200+ gain and nasdaq 50+....this would only make for more shorting. This market has not seen its bottom yet, I think this rally is a headfake even if we rally another 2-3%. Most stocks in the past 1-2 weeks are up 8-12%.

oldsoothsayer said...

I think Tim is right!

The major point in all this is that Bernanke is building volatility in the market and this is what turns us off.

This might be good for us in the long term, but for now it is justpretty risky and unstable.

The trading range has just increasd by 60% in the past two month. And the thing is just widening again.

We are just back up before the big down. Like all tops and crashes.

Tim Knight said...

What's funny to me about these Fed days is the gymnastics the markets go through. It's just spastic. If there was a 'Fed Rally' perhaps the bulls shot their wad this morning. We shall see - 75 minutes to go, folks.

Sanjay Sola said...

i still maintain my bearish stance. i have not seen a confirmed rally yet. oil is at $73+ and likely to go higher, especially if Iran rejects the US proposal.

some noise by window dressing and July 4th holiday. nice to shake some of the uncommitted bears out.
the trend is down still until we see otherwise.

Mark said...

The volume doesn't support a rally yet?

Well, I nailed where DIA started/low this morn as what I thought would be the high for the day, and it broke through the shorter trend, but it is headed back down at this time.

There was a HUGE sell in DIA when it hit 110.88 and has been going down since. But it has bounced off the day's resistance/Fib at 110.34 and looks to be going back up. I would love to see it drop below 109 by the end of the day.

bsi87 said...


If you trading for a couple points here and there, that's great. But I'm watching the H&S and the neckline. Volume keeps dropping on the rallies and increasing on the selloffs. P/C ratios dropping.

I wouldn't trust these mkts as far as I can throw 'em.