Thursday, June 29, 2006

Fib Wars

As the Fed's 2:15 decision looms, the market is doing something pretty fascinating. Looking at the S&P 500 index vis a vis the long-term Fibonacci line, it seems that the 61.86% retracement constitutes the current line in the sand (see green shaded area going back over half a decade).

You can see how significant this line is by looking at the recent daily history of the S&P. I've circled those areas where the market is flopping between considering the line either support or resistance (it is currently support, given today's strong upward movement).

To me, the intraday is the most fascinating of all. It never ceases to amaze me the power these Fibs have. This line goes back to early 2000! And yet is still holds power over the market.


Anonymous said...

market is pathetic.

Im going short up here.


Sanjay Sola said...

I shorted even more at the Nasdaq 2150 mark. The Fed statement is very hawkish, IMO. economy is slowing and they will keep raising if they have to.

I will cover on another day like this and go long. but the rally feels very artificial to me.

downosedive said...

Total mania out there - up 155 and 1hour 30mins to go. why why why.

dsantos said...

this is a pretty painful day for my puts. Ouchie.

Anonymous said...

the rally looks real

should get enough volume by the close

downosedive said...

DJA Touched +185 a few mins ago. Mad mad mad, where are the bears? Stone dead I think. Im £1222 down so far

Anonymous said...

volume is still below average, but i got killed today. o well

Anonymous said...

were going back down, this rally is a head fake. No need for a rally like this, federal reserve will continue to raise rates. To 5.75-6% we go.

WIll take more short positions tomorrow morning, i think this rally may get another bump up but then i think its DOWNNNNNN.

stockshaker said...

I am waiting for seroiusly, five minutes before the market closes to make any trades.

The DOW graph for the day is starting to look like a heart monitor.

BUT, if the DOW goes above 11,100,and SPX 1256, I'm going long, and covering my puts.

Those are huge resistance levels, and Im sure they will be equally strong support if tomorrow things go down.

AND RIGHT NOW, those resistances are all broken.

im jumpin onto this bandwagon. this looks like the rally that is needed by the bulls.

Anonymous said...

we definitely have enough volume for the day

stick with the bulls for now

or at least stay in cash

no sense in fighting against the market

stockshaker said...

normally, i would agree with people on here, that the rally looks artificial, but the FED did leave hope for pausing. AND THAT is why I think we are in a for a bit of a rally.

If it was just the .25, and people were rallying because of just that (instead of the half point), THEN yes, I would say short.

But this is a new ballgame.

I think we need to change our outlook for the short term, and make some money while the market moves

Stubborn = Loss

sean04 said...

Hi, you'll. Great blog and great comments. Very helpful and thank for all great advices.
Question 1: is trend broken?? Are we bullish now or is it bear flag??I'm so confused,, day like today,,kinda lost.. Rookie sean