Giving Thanks (for nothin!)

Mr. Market (the cornball term I see used in other blogs about the stock market) hasn't been kind to us bears for the past five months. Today was sort of a do-nothing day, although the Dow managed to eke out another 5 point gain. I imagine this Friday's half-day will be equally as thrilling, if not moreso.

I marked up the Russell is kind of an interesting way. Check out what happens after each breakout. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. Hopefully my mark-ups will be helpful to you in your own analysis.


The $XMI, whose breakout really presaged a lot of the recent strength, is clearly losing steam here.


I've got a few ideas to throw your way. Here's AEM, which is a nice play on shorting gold.


BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.


GS continued to be very strong today. But check out the volume. Looks like this is being pushed up by less and less strength.


Hilton (HLT) seems to be nearing the underside of its trendline. I've pointed out the various times it has "bounced" off this trendline (for both upward or downward motions).


SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.


A short play on energy is probably better realized via XLE as opposed to OIH, the latter of which is a mess right now.


I appreciate all the nice comments lately. It's encouraging to get such positive feedback. Many thanks, and - - miserable market aside - - I hope everyone enjoys a feast tomorrow with those for whom they care.

Profits in the Face of Gains

It was one of those nice days where the market went up but my portfolio went up as well (in spite of being completely short). Weakness in oil and gold were the reason.

Taking a look at the NASDAQ Composite, it's pretty plain that the market is at the upper boundaries of an ascending channel. Setting aside bullish/bearish arguments, don't you think it's time for the market to take a breather? Even if we're in a bull market for years to come, it doesn't go straight up. This graph alone should persuade you that it's more likely to ease off than push above the bounds.


The same argument, but for different reasons, applies to the S&P 100 ($OEX). Look how far above the 100/50/30 day moving averages the price is. It hasn't been this lofty since December 2003 (and you can see the softening that happened afterward). We've come very far, very fast.


As I mentioned, gold was weak today. I like how this graph is shaping up. The stop remains the same as noted earlier.


Now here's an interesting and unusual graph. I plotted YHOO and GOOG onto the same chart, each with their own independent axis. What's fascinating to me is that during the first half, the stocks tended to share the same fate. But during the second half, it's clear that GOOG has kicked YHOO's butt, and there's a growing rift between these two. Does it mean that GOOG will eventually "catch up" with YHOO by drifting down sharply? Or that YHOO is simply a company of the 90's and will never catch up again? Time will tell.


Now on to some specific short favorites. Here's AEM, which takes advantage of gold's weakness.


AL is a good play on weakness in industrial metals.


ARE is a very clean short in the world of real estate.


I like MRO as an energy short.


COF is shaping up nicely. I've mentioned this numerous times.


HYDL is another sweet looking short.


We're still in "a new high every day" mode. This can't last forever. You know that as well as I do.

Five in a Row

Five down days on the Dow in a row. Nice. Let's hope for a sixth tomorrow. A solid week of downers would be sweet. Of course, all eyes are on the election next week. The market can have perverse and surprising reactions. A huge victory for the Dems would supposedly damage the market. But let's remember Clinton's 1992-2000 tenure wasn't exactly bad for stocks.

My $MSH puts are slowly gaining strength. There's a lot of room to tumble, but there's no earnest downward momentum yet.


The same holds true for the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Today's "spinning top" candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty.


For anyone bearish on gold, check out AEM. It looks really vulnerable to a swing down.


FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.


HYDL is a honey of a head and shoulders pattern. Full retracement has been completed.


Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) has decidedly busted through its supporting trendline and is high enough to be a relatively safe play.


lufk


The fog will hopefully clear by next Wednesday. Thanks for taking the time to stop by.