tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-117892332024-03-06T21:25:33.630-08:00The Slope of Hope.....with Tim KnightTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger528125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-84811627928356056902007-07-22T16:07:00.000-07:002007-07-22T16:10:46.914-07:00The Slope of HopeEveryone....<br /><br />I am moving over (if all goes well) to a new blog publishing platform. From now on, please go to:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.SlopeOfHope.com">http://www.SlopeOfHope.com</a><br /><br />I would REALLY appreciate your comments (not here, but at the new site) about what you do and don't like about the new platform. I have done almost no customization of it, so it's kind of sparse. But I'd like to fine-tune it with your help. Thanks.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com42tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-27958796125794209512007-07-20T13:27:00.000-07:002007-07-20T14:46:27.647-07:00Home In the RangeWhat a week! And a great week it was.<br /><br />For those of you insane enough to have owned July puts on Google until today, congratulations. The slight earnings disappointment from GOOG nicked $40 off their stock price at one point, and naturally the options were going insane.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQBWlXsuiQSrBBnDz8VWhM5fQ3nLb3MCLSObtbmck1ZIQ1YM_-YS09WBM1HeQqpMh14noEulldxpchsjd2N0IoihP65cG__zsas81fmKXzWywsz-BwIiJSQkMYJP9Q1t8n0Ruv4A/s1600-h/0720-$savoytruffle.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQBWlXsuiQSrBBnDz8VWhM5fQ3nLb3MCLSObtbmck1ZIQ1YM_-YS09WBM1HeQqpMh14noEulldxpchsjd2N0IoihP65cG__zsas81fmKXzWywsz-BwIiJSQkMYJP9Q1t8n0Ruv4A/s400/0720-$savoytruffle.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392917130652338" /></a><br />The sea-change that has taken place is that all the sub-prime woes have elevated the volatility in this market. It's very plain to see from the $VIX graph below.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmG4E_D-FlGSqL7DVYDNCspvnIdefJnQfFRXOzLPuFXI23f-yIh4pe8paNQok-dUJME0BkENmbQ7t28_s5c121RRoAcRrwrPsnQL1rV1xqXz6JBE-EHMgJ0Nv3-GYPUUN0nynaGA/s1600-h/0720-$vix.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmG4E_D-FlGSqL7DVYDNCspvnIdefJnQfFRXOzLPuFXI23f-yIh4pe8paNQok-dUJME0BkENmbQ7t28_s5c121RRoAcRrwrPsnQL1rV1xqXz6JBE-EHMgJ0Nv3-GYPUUN0nynaGA/s400/0720-$vix.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392921425619650" /></a><br />But this market right now is all about one thing - range, range, range. As David Byrne once sang: "I go up and down/I like this/curious feeling." If you are able to pay close enough attention to it, and you've got your groove on, you can make a lot of money.<br /><br />But a glance at the Dow graph below shows that the price is currently about in the middle of a very sweeping range. And now we're in no man's land. Do we bounce off the horizontal line and fly well above 14,000? Do we push our way through the muck beneath that line and start and honest-to-goodness bear market? Or do we continue to fart around <span style="font-style:italic;">ad nauseum</span>. I dunno. And you don't either.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex7R-0_L-3D2Va6pOB_xFX0pw14N8Me5H3HhpMZC-9pfLJ-zLmO4D8J2KGz-wBocpVlK0mj1g6JCZx8vaKvXTT2Wfjkr3RLWNRY3J7676NJDBadgSfgiWeDzmZkyYPps0pUclDg/s1600-h/0720-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjex7R-0_L-3D2Va6pOB_xFX0pw14N8Me5H3HhpMZC-9pfLJ-zLmO4D8J2KGz-wBocpVlK0mj1g6JCZx8vaKvXTT2Wfjkr3RLWNRY3J7676NJDBadgSfgiWeDzmZkyYPps0pUclDg/s400/0720-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392930015554258" /></a><br />The Russell is even more "range-y". Hell, I was in and out of calls AND puts all day long on this, and nary lost a cent in the process. It was quite a ride. But I'm about as flat as Kate Moss right, since I'd rather enter Monday morning with a relatively clean slate. (e.g. mountains of cash).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_4AQ9BHPBAdaRZ0FatUgQAQvwRaXFSIqYCm0t3dEacWCfWpjiqUWpGov9LL7HW7_DwQP8sxcPHBkHu7rfSoeK9QGcLBwsfoH_scKsHxXdtXNqOjMAxfcdc6W1fZUxDBzhvDBv3g/s1600-h/0720-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_4AQ9BHPBAdaRZ0FatUgQAQvwRaXFSIqYCm0t3dEacWCfWpjiqUWpGov9LL7HW7_DwQP8sxcPHBkHu7rfSoeK9QGcLBwsfoH_scKsHxXdtXNqOjMAxfcdc6W1fZUxDBzhvDBv3g/s400/0720-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392930015554274" /></a><br />One last intraday index to show you - the S&P 500. I'd say we are at an important "bounce or break" point here. <span style="font-weight:bold;">It will take a lot of strength for either the bulls or the bears to reach escape velocity from the range shown here, but once either side wins, it's going to be dramatic.</span><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQGo6q58IAihcKHqioXI7MYgQGzKIALVH47IxLZGcGww23c9wM5qVD4ABeq0xnVe0_ktp0vXczElF28k74ruhk67dFZJDr68GmM5YGiWfHvKLegYjuSJHANQg1HDudLlvnzVMd3g/s1600-h/0720-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQGo6q58IAihcKHqioXI7MYgQGzKIALVH47IxLZGcGww23c9wM5qVD4ABeq0xnVe0_ktp0vXczElF28k74ruhk67dFZJDr68GmM5YGiWfHvKLegYjuSJHANQg1HDudLlvnzVMd3g/s400/0720-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392728152091218" /></a><br />The rest of the charts are just short/put ideas. I sold a lot of "I told ya so" graphcs today (e.g. items I had suggested which went very much as planned), but I don't want to waste your time with those. You know I've got good ideas from time to time, don't you? Once in a while?<br /><br />Here's BP.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDq-7fuPp1Kt6nUz4CDorMwdTvQCs77XTlRpnC6rFmtrR3YUHj1xb04FONCeDg0gYzldOXxS7BWOLnyRh3Sy4kPH224RSUcfw6wLr0Bl2eJYKhSAUF-wVziJ_PovR0dRO9saMqUw/s1600-h/0720-bp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDq-7fuPp1Kt6nUz4CDorMwdTvQCs77XTlRpnC6rFmtrR3YUHj1xb04FONCeDg0gYzldOXxS7BWOLnyRh3Sy4kPH224RSUcfw6wLr0Bl2eJYKhSAUF-wVziJ_PovR0dRO9saMqUw/s400/0720-bp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392732447058530" /></a><br />CAH looks ready to break its neckline.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjocUzcn31wRBbB7VGltkNW4Vo2I3BsGSr8NImdoinPBEbUjFHgMqN4kf2EYeCqjwO-KEwaOuHPaOgHt5i1MX9xSRyExDo8NNfjIn133rhTfctnno2ALMcDPpZyIvCtOReEQsg1Aw/s1600-h/0720-cah.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjocUzcn31wRBbB7VGltkNW4Vo2I3BsGSr8NImdoinPBEbUjFHgMqN4kf2EYeCqjwO-KEwaOuHPaOgHt5i1MX9xSRyExDo8NNfjIn133rhTfctnno2ALMcDPpZyIvCtOReEQsg1Aw/s400/0720-cah.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392732447058546" /></a><br />Colgate (CL) might have finished a nice triple top here.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLujQF1s_ZeS2yxmcNo64fjFAdFpR9aVEvWAMDnYzsIcI7XtLD4Ak-DjjxKaDJp48Q2K_d1oZ65R4F3pQar1IJhhqf6h7Nvb-t6wwMAx5BapyFCm5cE2PmRUbu_Whi4LfB3cf6A/s1600-h/0720-cl.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLujQF1s_ZeS2yxmcNo64fjFAdFpR9aVEvWAMDnYzsIcI7XtLD4Ak-DjjxKaDJp48Q2K_d1oZ65R4F3pQar1IJhhqf6h7Nvb-t6wwMAx5BapyFCm5cE2PmRUbu_Whi4LfB3cf6A/s400/0720-cl.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392736742025858" /></a><br />CVX also looks good.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhR6jqomEXheepPW1pGNTiRzjfzkxFchU7fVpeiJMwaHzdleCDjwQhChvFkbIfS0EKGGQrlb6hkPvQ23tYhyphenhyphenN5-YcBrnBONjZOTNPgTMfuUYQWuP8ObCWbLZvx8C20Uidr8Q0Lw/s1600-h/0720-cvx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhR6jqomEXheepPW1pGNTiRzjfzkxFchU7fVpeiJMwaHzdleCDjwQhChvFkbIfS0EKGGQrlb6hkPvQ23tYhyphenhyphenN5-YcBrnBONjZOTNPgTMfuUYQWuP8ObCWbLZvx8C20Uidr8Q0Lw/s400/0720-cvx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392741036993170" /></a><br />I'm putting GOOG here not as a suggestion, but mainly to show how nicely it retraced its entire hard-fought gain in just a single day. Who knows - those who bought in the low 500s might be very happy in the long run. After all, it's still a nice bullish pattern. But today it was a better buy!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFMp3wiMBikPal1Mz9eEQHQfewA8OS4jwZpQlvkD7ZAVEcpSOab_kPMD0R6STXJKAj8Djl2aP2c2aAPhJft8yXlGMjzNcGipMv_MEqexah3hE2TqRoJpciBGhqI65oPEhUpvUCA/s1600-h/0720-goog.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFMp3wiMBikPal1Mz9eEQHQfewA8OS4jwZpQlvkD7ZAVEcpSOab_kPMD0R6STXJKAj8Djl2aP2c2aAPhJft8yXlGMjzNcGipMv_MEqexah3hE2TqRoJpciBGhqI65oPEhUpvUCA/s400/0720-goog.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392423209413138" /></a><br />HES, like many oil-related stocks, looks great to short.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv68C54o35dNwFa9RSgB7nh-9nnmpRWVXvh9pNMWQ9E4S9dkkswnSZpF4irEFXgHvCwdTj2VyFQ4ZAhNbEzNw1e0kqhbZlNhB1oARhOEFU4oZcLSzD5S35jeDM9Q1lgsWOgbsT6g/s1600-h/0720-hes.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv68C54o35dNwFa9RSgB7nh-9nnmpRWVXvh9pNMWQ9E4S9dkkswnSZpF4irEFXgHvCwdTj2VyFQ4ZAhNbEzNw1e0kqhbZlNhB1oARhOEFU4oZcLSzD5S35jeDM9Q1lgsWOgbsT6g/s400/0720-hes.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392427504380450" /></a><br />I suggested MLM a while back (howdy, Leisa!) It's doing well.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZs9XcIYKYIBm-jNAByOkTTjQuZW5sk0EyHeyb8-LiAiRe6AOp3IKTCIEjYp2rEyu7TZmTo-o8LDS8bMC_8EfVDxQs_qcxtjVA_w4pXy7d_vBpjlO-iZcjBfc5EZ863lfhtKX9sw/s1600-h/0720-mlm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZs9XcIYKYIBm-jNAByOkTTjQuZW5sk0EyHeyb8-LiAiRe6AOp3IKTCIEjYp2rEyu7TZmTo-o8LDS8bMC_8EfVDxQs_qcxtjVA_w4pXy7d_vBpjlO-iZcjBfc5EZ863lfhtKX9sw/s400/0720-mlm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392431799347762" /></a><br />I made so much cash today I decided to risk a bit on a couple of RIMM puts. This sucker has to fall <span style="font-style:italic;">some </span>day.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7r0xL2gaXBOq-Rfq_9WMqFV_z9ELR-0o3swVP7nmkL4alJZQ3_dJJNR6zNLCTcz6by2VYs6uYzZAjOuKLubsovSIdMOJK_xT3I8_I9eA-kz9a2_SuUdPsR9dTc6YyYofXEG8EwA/s1600-h/0720-rimm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7r0xL2gaXBOq-Rfq_9WMqFV_z9ELR-0o3swVP7nmkL4alJZQ3_dJJNR6zNLCTcz6by2VYs6uYzZAjOuKLubsovSIdMOJK_xT3I8_I9eA-kz9a2_SuUdPsR9dTc6YyYofXEG8EwA/s400/0720-rimm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5089392436094315074" /></a><br />Here's a final thought for you. See ya Monday.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/9JSR_6qfXTg"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/9JSR_6qfXTg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-67158303308356871522007-07-19T13:13:00.000-07:002007-07-19T13:33:59.380-07:00Google-y EyesI'm going to make you feel how deeply you want and love me by having a really short post today. I am moving heaven and earth to get this blog moved to a different platform, so I need to focus on that.<br /><br />I will say, however, that I'm pleased to see the after-hours market slamming the bejesus out of Google (GOOG). As I am typing this, it is down nearly 40 points. Congratulations to you brave put owners out there.<br /><br />Maybe the bloom's coming off the rose, eh? I mean, it's Google for the love of Jesus.<br /><br />Did you know I have a Google connection? Yes, it's true. I'm even more interesting than you imagined. The angel investor for my company, Prophet, was none other than Andy Bechtolsheim (Sun's co-founder and Google's first investor). His $100,000 check to them is now worth billions. And, hey, he did all right on Prophet too! Thanks, Andy.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/2/24/250px-Andy_Bechtolsheim.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/2/24/250px-Andy_Bechtolsheim.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com53tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-35823631539570878142007-07-18T13:03:00.000-07:002007-07-18T14:14:19.560-07:00Red Rubber BallIt was an interesting day on the market. Non-amazing earnings from YHOO and INTC, coupled with the continuing problems at Bear Stearns with their hedge funds, took the Dow down about 130 points or so. Looking at the 60 day intraday minute bar graph, I thought that was about all that was going to squeezed out of the market for the day, so I sold all my index puts.<br /><br />This doesn't always work........back on February 27th, I also sold my puts at what I thought was the bottom, when the Dow was down about 130 - - and it continued to fall hundreds more points.<br /><br />The only honest-to-goodness bear market right now is anything to do with residential real estate. It's a slow death.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUmYQjKyWAS0kXvrErEfrzQkOC_BIJzt-S3hyOO3ueRm8lFsWaUynWCYwCIHI7uwSjLDstyL7e2U-aAcQUw9g5n3Kn_Jxlum2pKjQo3PlXQqmRdl-hpBjhLj-FDDCFGZ8Q6rVqRg/s1600-h/0718-$slowdeath.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUmYQjKyWAS0kXvrErEfrzQkOC_BIJzt-S3hyOO3ueRm8lFsWaUynWCYwCIHI7uwSjLDstyL7e2U-aAcQUw9g5n3Kn_Jxlum2pKjQo3PlXQqmRdl-hpBjhLj-FDDCFGZ8Q6rVqRg/s400/0718-$slowdeath.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088647478311791106" /></a><br />After the close today, IBM reported good earnings, and the after-hours market is up a little. At this point, it's simple a question of whether we shake off the worry and truly blast through 14,000, or if the weakness will get us down to at least that breakout point from last week.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCTlJkXBAs3T7to37ZO8dyJBe3K0AoZHLnde-N_IcMprF-OJZGOt3DaIBHZRCzHAKkPzuLpoNgL1ZOJq6ghrYlmw_s6BA-9oqVltSALp1U4mAKxA08KdxyKYeAy1rcWT4X2dbtLQ/s1600-h/0718-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCTlJkXBAs3T7to37ZO8dyJBe3K0AoZHLnde-N_IcMprF-OJZGOt3DaIBHZRCzHAKkPzuLpoNgL1ZOJq6ghrYlmw_s6BA-9oqVltSALp1U4mAKxA08KdxyKYeAy1rcWT4X2dbtLQ/s400/0718-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643672970766786" /></a><br />The intraday of the Russell 2000 shows how nicely we swooned and then recovered up to what is a pretty substantial point of resistance. Falling today was easy. Pushing through this resistance area will be tougher.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDJh93yqYv6gKJRO4gCx-55bNy3VXw_Y9YWx4xIWX5z_VdzzcEoISYx7gDoW3rN2JBKC44sSQu7srPsS5afFk4bA9uXIIDrQqJwaOwcKceGLrHuhPu-wNgazoxu5POd_zifOK_Ig/s1600-h/0718-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDJh93yqYv6gKJRO4gCx-55bNy3VXw_Y9YWx4xIWX5z_VdzzcEoISYx7gDoW3rN2JBKC44sSQu7srPsS5afFk4bA9uXIIDrQqJwaOwcKceGLrHuhPu-wNgazoxu5POd_zifOK_Ig/s400/0718-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088646962915715570" /></a><br />Much the same can be said of the S&P 500. This longer-term graph shows the small rounded top, the fall, and the recovery.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnANylpwEukO272DwYWQzK8kTD9A3R39wp1MHsAEzjUhnLBkPvRiSFMptxda9iJAJgliM-5R3Br2PXWItakWYsnekbLsTb7kEupu1MO27uJQZimde3VTAwAN2HS6XKRGwmfsr1Dg/s1600-h/0718-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnANylpwEukO272DwYWQzK8kTD9A3R39wp1MHsAEzjUhnLBkPvRiSFMptxda9iJAJgliM-5R3Br2PXWItakWYsnekbLsTb7kEupu1MO27uJQZimde3VTAwAN2HS6XKRGwmfsr1Dg/s400/0718-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643672970766818" /></a><br />I'm staying away from the Gold and Silver index ($XAU). I'm not sure what it's going to do next. But it has clearly made the (former) long-lasting channel irrelevant.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YJ0kpRiuG36hsryma1vlaomA28mYk2snPAcR-nLopysj01EWIOl8PnzDDiq5eTqaljShwOay-1sKrUl_nKLUc_IsNaEqBgHWPbIBIKqyToaujktFxYRJTLQdig4eX0c6uiV-bw/s1600-h/0718-$xau.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YJ0kpRiuG36hsryma1vlaomA28mYk2snPAcR-nLopysj01EWIOl8PnzDDiq5eTqaljShwOay-1sKrUl_nKLUc_IsNaEqBgHWPbIBIKqyToaujktFxYRJTLQdig4eX0c6uiV-bw/s400/0718-$xau.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643492582140274" /></a><br />Longs might want to consider CCJ. It seems to be bullish and is done with its retracement.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhknBBkyW-L5kFJrtXYn9jVI1zZXxvIjGYfBESej0az7225mbM714sndlC2FZCMpoKRO2lGG_M3DD88m70_svpqMOCOcmcEtVIYV_do7hTvoAL32bo1zhhQMxC7Twc9U1pSK_CbUg/s1600-h/0718-ccj.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhknBBkyW-L5kFJrtXYn9jVI1zZXxvIjGYfBESej0az7225mbM714sndlC2FZCMpoKRO2lGG_M3DD88m70_svpqMOCOcmcEtVIYV_do7hTvoAL32bo1zhhQMxC7Twc9U1pSK_CbUg/s400/0718-ccj.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643496877107586" /></a><br />Although residential real estate is getting thrashed, these problems seem to just be starting in the commercial real estate world. Maybe there's an opportunity to short these and enjoy a spill similar to what we're seeing now in residential real estate.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpGP-cWP0dGE2zpLLW_1G25ttishStr4BvIrpaPaJo_fX-hbNaNqSZWsS5ccHRo-JHh8-W-v-tq86uSaDgmz_lfQvyQrEWS9-ZJrP6c3blAqkmgzdz3up7HoT6uky_c9_OYmYkNg/s1600-h/0718-psb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpGP-cWP0dGE2zpLLW_1G25ttishStr4BvIrpaPaJo_fX-hbNaNqSZWsS5ccHRo-JHh8-W-v-tq86uSaDgmz_lfQvyQrEWS9-ZJrP6c3blAqkmgzdz3up7HoT6uky_c9_OYmYkNg/s400/0718-psb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643501172074898" /></a><br />I don't think I'm going to take a position in Union Pacific (UNP), but this is an awfully terrific looking shooting star candlestick.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinDJcjvjvva6iFLnQjPpwQWN0tzPIdQ8J81TIX0podIXPlFHAGNvoI7zRgWdJixmyqdURzcQbBjwfpcENMDGA1LPC2fk8kgv_j7ZgEKvzSj-I7jebsCUo5XMJESoLpqLD5Jvw-_Q/s1600-h/0718-unp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinDJcjvjvva6iFLnQjPpwQWN0tzPIdQ8J81TIX0podIXPlFHAGNvoI7zRgWdJixmyqdURzcQbBjwfpcENMDGA1LPC2fk8kgv_j7ZgEKvzSj-I7jebsCUo5XMJESoLpqLD5Jvw-_Q/s400/0718-unp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088643501172074914" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com39tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-60427062980036938152007-07-17T13:07:00.000-07:002007-07-17T13:43:07.180-07:00Not Quite........Today was the big day. Dow 14,000 was crossed (we won't mention that the broader S&P 500 index actually fell on the day). I'm not sure what repelled the market away from this level. Your guess is as good as mine.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEotcLavdQHYRmznEanmTPco6-SoIczQ7jBvfaBjUuC4iIu3dpN1fegsnhHN-TW4C2G5vKkLr0GztTj3N47SLXLlG_20wu8niccWl9I3OBRwOYD8fgREZiRvYUwj1ONrxn5iJXZQ/s1600-h/0717-$notifyouwerethelastwomanonearth.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEotcLavdQHYRmznEanmTPco6-SoIczQ7jBvfaBjUuC4iIu3dpN1fegsnhHN-TW4C2G5vKkLr0GztTj3N47SLXLlG_20wu8niccWl9I3OBRwOYD8fgREZiRvYUwj1ONrxn5iJXZQ/s400/0717-$notifyouwerethelastwomanonearth.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267670058838338" /></a><br />Of course, television pundits were completely obsessed with the Big Round Number. If and when we actually <span style="font-style:italic;">close </span>above 14,000, it will be about 3 seconds before someone writes an article entitled, "Next Stop: 15K!" Yawn.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI80EJpk2OSw05BSTEXJK5rqLOb434IpDCGeKexgqsFtx81PrJ6emPW6bZj8_c-MasyuujtvJMth5DKdCAopmYQWueW3d8_S14awx1FgCoSSyO5EkI1L8o7ezpsm4BoNpsjqhRaA/s1600-h/0717-$whogivesashit.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI80EJpk2OSw05BSTEXJK5rqLOb434IpDCGeKexgqsFtx81PrJ6emPW6bZj8_c-MasyuujtvJMth5DKdCAopmYQWueW3d8_S14awx1FgCoSSyO5EkI1L8o7ezpsm4BoNpsjqhRaA/s400/0717-$whogivesashit.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267588454459634" /></a><br />I took a small bearish position on CME today. It seems we have a failed breakout here. Plus, all the elation over BOT is past us now.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WBN8LCUjFe5i48mLxjVtt_2Rs90sm3ge3ipbmJ7FasUtBuXnvKQiBNw7MCPKuOjXGHwnAkr0wO8NRnQ3JfKQlxnNAmIxU9oLFg56oinC-o61LZONBZTmjFH5VL3RnknSa2tgbg/s1600-h/0717-cme.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WBN8LCUjFe5i48mLxjVtt_2Rs90sm3ge3ipbmJ7FasUtBuXnvKQiBNw7MCPKuOjXGHwnAkr0wO8NRnQ3JfKQlxnNAmIxU9oLFg56oinC-o61LZONBZTmjFH5VL3RnknSa2tgbg/s400/0717-cme.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267592749426946" /></a><br />Intel is one of the largest and earliest earnings reports for Q2. As of this writing, this stock is down nearly 5%, wiping out about $7 billion in shareholder value. As an aside, YHOO also just reported, and they are down about 2% right now.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgubNn9ZsPWt37vlZMnxhWILedcpRBh9K5QKIAgqub-ip8YNyXdt54jq4h268PGdk30rxzgqyxNtjbe8vTeAQKD3GIeDprOPeaC_ogCR33uy54ck5Khi9d3jriQMiaWFfeujgFisg/s1600-h/0717-intc.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgubNn9ZsPWt37vlZMnxhWILedcpRBh9K5QKIAgqub-ip8YNyXdt54jq4h268PGdk30rxzgqyxNtjbe8vTeAQKD3GIeDprOPeaC_ogCR33uy54ck5Khi9d3jriQMiaWFfeujgFisg/s400/0717-intc.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267592749426962" /></a><br />I've got puts on NutriSystem, whose stock is finally starting to slip some.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgquWBLRuB5YyP_LyIvPP8xqwlDjFoPck3Dx2QyO2NbwF9qJbUCZ5euC1rOzPYpqBSn7_fq1pPLbn3MF86MKdfCJfnDuLyq4Yle8CD8Jyb1fiMQE3JOZoJloyf73f8-_kMJmRPqMg/s1600-h/0717-ntri.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgquWBLRuB5YyP_LyIvPP8xqwlDjFoPck3Dx2QyO2NbwF9qJbUCZ5euC1rOzPYpqBSn7_fq1pPLbn3MF86MKdfCJfnDuLyq4Yle8CD8Jyb1fiMQE3JOZoJloyf73f8-_kMJmRPqMg/s400/0717-ntri.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267597044394274" /></a><br />I also augmented by CVX position by buying some XOM puts.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguP6AzbRLs6awuFTrQ7GDMIPhpagAvXu9Wjy_9eSYu2jtG-SfJIomtqexw0eN-2SXDSi38Gw7m9COG9jgGgawzJNhV6Ho7sMV3pDWiQ8eE5IvS3WJnX9Q-l3V9AHm8mBNYssN-gQ/s1600-h/0717-xom.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguP6AzbRLs6awuFTrQ7GDMIPhpagAvXu9Wjy_9eSYu2jtG-SfJIomtqexw0eN-2SXDSi38Gw7m9COG9jgGgawzJNhV6Ho7sMV3pDWiQ8eE5IvS3WJnX9Q-l3V9AHm8mBNYssN-gQ/s400/0717-xom.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5088267601339361586" /></a><br />That's it for today. I think some of the snarky comments have me less inspired to write a long, thoughtful post. I've got other things to do.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com73tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-9035164735074351232007-07-16T14:59:00.000-07:002007-07-16T17:39:33.877-07:00Any Gas Left?Dow 14k is in the air, and it's all the pundits seem to want to talk about. I've already mentioned here that my 'upper limit' is 14,100 on the Dow based on its breakout. Even though the Dow was up today to yet another lifetime high, the broader indexes were down, and my overall portfolio climbed by 5%.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3X0gkzVXkKEXr40qTveDj7x-hwVhr4R5H81ZeDMGhmF8inxXQvfcB67yRHbj1Vt2GE6xbvdQeByL4g1p57AGTmwhVg_fWfQt9lY-n5tKXXhYfwMNHIIy3VSKDGFxTi4FcnSDCgA/s1600-h/0716-$14kcockbags.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3X0gkzVXkKEXr40qTveDj7x-hwVhr4R5H81ZeDMGhmF8inxXQvfcB67yRHbj1Vt2GE6xbvdQeByL4g1p57AGTmwhVg_fWfQt9lY-n5tKXXhYfwMNHIIy3VSKDGFxTi4FcnSDCgA/s400/0716-$14kcockbags.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087952685747284130" /></a><br />When I showed the "mother of all double tops" by way of the S&P 500 graph, many people remarked that the S&P was cheap since profits have doubled on the S&P 500 since the prior high in 2000.<br /><br />That may be true, but the logic is flawed. That's the equivalent of a Republican declaring the White House could be won in 2008 if only they could find a candidate twice as popular as George Bush. Just because something is double something else doesn't mean the opposite result will take place. If the P/E in 2000 was 500, would a P/E of 250 make it a bargain? Of course, those weren't the real P/Es, but hopefully you can see my point.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-uAUOilaA8Xvnn9PyIxIq37uTLnN1UWqJBe7ANc2gvSTknJJU4V75UX1KKSVWyt14jYSVpYn2HX0I74tdw5-MorRG8Q6H71hyphenhyphenLEnxPSsiPSeGDJTvK1osoF6XesMktyycf5D5cA/s1600-h/0716-$cards.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-uAUOilaA8Xvnn9PyIxIq37uTLnN1UWqJBe7ANc2gvSTknJJU4V75UX1KKSVWyt14jYSVpYn2HX0I74tdw5-MorRG8Q6H71hyphenhyphenLEnxPSsiPSeGDJTvK1osoF6XesMktyycf5D5cA/s400/0716-$cards.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087952685747284146" /></a><br />The daily chart of the Dow 30 helps illustrate how this market is in the toppermost of the poppermost. I see a fall ahead.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTuNTdb4e7QQP7SyUnXAIWHDDxsfl8IYxmJ7uzYmfi67fs9sVRhO-UzJnV45xux6j_ar0XIIi-0l4PeexfNM_Hbnc9PtDUtqW51ixSlFObe-hTdRZ1G6cCpwYqNRJO7YUH6uWGcQ/s1600-h/0716-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTuNTdb4e7QQP7SyUnXAIWHDDxsfl8IYxmJ7uzYmfi67fs9sVRhO-UzJnV45xux6j_ar0XIIi-0l4PeexfNM_Hbnc9PtDUtqW51ixSlFObe-hTdRZ1G6cCpwYqNRJO7YUH6uWGcQ/s400/0716-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087952690042251458" /></a><br />On an intraday basis, it's clear to see how strong the price movement has been since the breakout. I've tinted in the target zone. We have moved through most of the pain already.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjexFjH8tIvnszPoP2lSu_4LjoTJdDmzG-1eUAMC5cs4OUjgMdyf6-WYW2RUvJSf6RHixOdoBoPOX4ijBvB8_BN7Fv7muHJbQdJ6q8_mtzhUwL8DCW5wAktz4VziwOPDljk4gfcgg/s1600-h/0716-$induintraday.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjexFjH8tIvnszPoP2lSu_4LjoTJdDmzG-1eUAMC5cs4OUjgMdyf6-WYW2RUvJSf6RHixOdoBoPOX4ijBvB8_BN7Fv7muHJbQdJ6q8_mtzhUwL8DCW5wAktz4VziwOPDljk4gfcgg/s400/0716-$induintraday.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087952694337218770" /></a><br />A daily chart of the NDX - which I've been avoiding for many months - suggests this graph could be running out of gas too.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdJ_jOqO9ThDc2PzVokUIA4ZTeVPFmSVWQg5rT4omAuzXIZZj3x-WV17LKvTQu7Atyr-F7BPXW57A_cAPz53pM3YP8bhqFjqLnaZcSU2blDLqnQFwjoLHPwjOg7GuUddfmNtIoXQ/s1600-h/0716-$ndx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdJ_jOqO9ThDc2PzVokUIA4ZTeVPFmSVWQg5rT4omAuzXIZZj3x-WV17LKvTQu7Atyr-F7BPXW57A_cAPz53pM3YP8bhqFjqLnaZcSU2blDLqnQFwjoLHPwjOg7GuUddfmNtIoXQ/s400/0716-$ndx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087952698632186082" /></a><br />My favorite, the Russell 2000, edged down nicely today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpOVmqGFSdzv2LrRjP02-UeyKlBUho3xtO8q6SNnyEHBQlTZ-yuyu1YWeSHQNyAwwILwMufO6n2v5xmGZy9QDPTO2SxZTkVMs2SB2r3LAGEvPv9R2ACb04FH7finKCKME1eJJHAA/s1600-h/0716-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpOVmqGFSdzv2LrRjP02-UeyKlBUho3xtO8q6SNnyEHBQlTZ-yuyu1YWeSHQNyAwwILwMufO6n2v5xmGZy9QDPTO2SxZTkVMs2SB2r3LAGEvPv9R2ACb04FH7finKCKME1eJJHAA/s400/0716-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950976350300242" /></a><br />Even though the Gold and Silver index ($XAU) broke above its channel, recently history indicates the RSI has been a reliable bearish indicator; note the areas I've tinted and the subsequent price action.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVfb0i3vS2T6zMVggLS4_hFnXPIw4kT_gErliiM67vunpVi6j9NOuJALYnlYvw28YLceWiY6RtbzMOp6RBITvUXPm0EVQdMmR_RvuLRlrwaXIINAPnESRQ97j9McCL8yy_823Chg/s1600-h/0716-$xau.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVfb0i3vS2T6zMVggLS4_hFnXPIw4kT_gErliiM67vunpVi6j9NOuJALYnlYvw28YLceWiY6RtbzMOp6RBITvUXPm0EVQdMmR_RvuLRlrwaXIINAPnESRQ97j9McCL8yy_823Chg/s400/0716-$xau.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950980645267554" /></a><br />Akamai (AKAM) looks like a potential bearish play; note the series of lower highs.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWD_MSf6C4N3BhDiP953BAM1szS8prBvRiSHNAuR50_Nq1IOnRY7TV0eXtyQUM8fXqu4W8Vztb4YqxSvH1_6GOYABZRAHy9QRGGsPS2zMwlyDzLp3ISnoDm-6GtS2y1-wp5jD5kQ/s1600-h/0716-akam.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWD_MSf6C4N3BhDiP953BAM1szS8prBvRiSHNAuR50_Nq1IOnRY7TV0eXtyQUM8fXqu4W8Vztb4YqxSvH1_6GOYABZRAHy9QRGGsPS2zMwlyDzLp3ISnoDm-6GtS2y1-wp5jD5kQ/s400/0716-akam.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950984940234866" /></a><br />ALB also looks nice for a short.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW1cgwJ6CglhT2QBqBp5edbh-J5jG3rCU245txrO82s2TfjicdHaNIi1pi99EkoJhLDsvFCv2TemSE9h2yhGiwo_5pW6a176U_acx5kJdn3vK3coeGZMz5ftlcbvmTWZaZ81MDQg/s1600-h/0716-alb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW1cgwJ6CglhT2QBqBp5edbh-J5jG3rCU245txrO82s2TfjicdHaNIi1pi99EkoJhLDsvFCv2TemSE9h2yhGiwo_5pW6a176U_acx5kJdn3vK3coeGZMz5ftlcbvmTWZaZ81MDQg/s400/0716-alb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950984940234882" /></a><br />I bought puts on Colgate (CL) today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjetaTbVimpmdL0WLLgPX7djnTxxDkBAYfzcCHHBP8ZhRp1uyCGBaiYetG4YdgQ01zavaz-X0jg7Zfoc0yXT_iXjiqxiZKvOymUt8ZFcFQwSS5Wzj6fHlorVFU1S4lV_1RL1lOpqQ/s1600-h/0716-cl.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjetaTbVimpmdL0WLLgPX7djnTxxDkBAYfzcCHHBP8ZhRp1uyCGBaiYetG4YdgQ01zavaz-X0jg7Zfoc0yXT_iXjiqxiZKvOymUt8ZFcFQwSS5Wzj6fHlorVFU1S4lV_1RL1lOpqQ/s400/0716-cl.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950989235202194" /></a><br />I continue to hold onto my CROX puts, which are doing OK.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBLDDw4ePG1Geyf68_MTZ_Cd_ArHi8jEQV0WzaJ2CKBk_MUGEImaP2qL1ADrwsKyuZglm_uDSgfHEp9dFR8YH8nDWApPN7cBkWz9yIJftvHZCQIAstM5J0kLDP0nmrEuQLOh7kqw/s1600-h/0716-crox.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBLDDw4ePG1Geyf68_MTZ_Cd_ArHi8jEQV0WzaJ2CKBk_MUGEImaP2qL1ADrwsKyuZglm_uDSgfHEp9dFR8YH8nDWApPN7cBkWz9yIJftvHZCQIAstM5J0kLDP0nmrEuQLOh7kqw/s400/0716-crox.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950581213308930" /></a><br />I also bought puts on CVX this morning. So far, so good.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcZQ_awHqvtzoHInRhSORsb5plrUx0y30JOe6r7Rxm-QlToP_pFZLk6dmMd9CMSvdD8KUXPkDdhkbo77FvMEh0WKop8rDEo9Lej37hZ06zL5wJpj9s_W5e4-RLjwgfo3BUCdNeuw/s1600-h/0716-cvx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcZQ_awHqvtzoHInRhSORsb5plrUx0y30JOe6r7Rxm-QlToP_pFZLk6dmMd9CMSvdD8KUXPkDdhkbo77FvMEh0WKop8rDEo9Lej37hZ06zL5wJpj9s_W5e4-RLjwgfo3BUCdNeuw/s400/0716-cvx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950585508276242" /></a><br />And I shorted DST (a busy day.....)<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDzMLmX-6FIMi6b2XWX5d0TbJ3nq3Uc1ksbxnZgd3eSwuyZjs5G56yAN2QPU8IP3zaTK0xleGq2A-wFAG2UuQ1uexlNg31tjyHffkScl_hwBtWPYxLVyYdO5CihZeNejRNsLD_Yw/s1600-h/0716-dst.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDzMLmX-6FIMi6b2XWX5d0TbJ3nq3Uc1ksbxnZgd3eSwuyZjs5G56yAN2QPU8IP3zaTK0xleGq2A-wFAG2UuQ1uexlNg31tjyHffkScl_hwBtWPYxLVyYdO5CihZeNejRNsLD_Yw/s400/0716-dst.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950589803243554" /></a><br />I mentioned puts on FXI last week. These look better than ever.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhTqhQ23Ss_JMJ_BuJ8tHdGA96477mvpAOTp7tXrdtmn8LvR3H0RpTozkehRXtmSG0414EIAjkKsNBZyfup2TWTm99M9juAhu1_dwfZF3iaavCAhlnMnIA54dOdrrt9sQVttxN_A/s1600-h/0716-fxi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhTqhQ23Ss_JMJ_BuJ8tHdGA96477mvpAOTp7tXrdtmn8LvR3H0RpTozkehRXtmSG0414EIAjkKsNBZyfup2TWTm99M9juAhu1_dwfZF3iaavCAhlnMnIA54dOdrrt9sQVttxN_A/s400/0716-fxi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950589803243570" /></a><br />JC Penney has been a favorite of mine recently. My puts on this stock edged higher today due to the stock's weakness.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWaotl3A8yvjnd_tmVw9F9Df7FpCczHyCF-oNQQkSPPbw6LDqYmoqLwaHkah9chS3Bt7Xe3HTDzY4kCkI6bU3FG_3EMtQrdJe3Bmoz5GMR-yYXfjdTzkhMlcE7GxKN3zINNTjziQ/s1600-h/0716-jcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWaotl3A8yvjnd_tmVw9F9Df7FpCczHyCF-oNQQkSPPbw6LDqYmoqLwaHkah9chS3Bt7Xe3HTDzY4kCkI6bU3FG_3EMtQrdJe3Bmoz5GMR-yYXfjdTzkhMlcE7GxKN3zINNTjziQ/s400/0716-jcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5087950594098210882" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-17574229005892001882007-07-13T18:24:00.001-07:002007-07-13T18:51:45.702-07:00Is 14K Up Next?On the whole, it was a great week for the bulls. The Dow, the S&P, the Major Market Index, and a host of others climbed to all-time, never-seen-before high prices. So where does it stop?<br /><br />The Dow's high on June 1 was about 13,690. Its low on June 8th was about 13,250. That's a 440 point difference, and that's the approximate range of the rectangle out of which it just emerged. By traditional measurement, you take the high of 13,690 and add 440 points and get the target of 14,130. That's 223 points or 1.6% away. It won't take much to get us there.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVyMcJQKu0LeG2Nl3wD4z_Vbkm95Vcr3FwHL0szSZddXo6cdp3vTD39NvHg2Cm9XuSW62UcRrDhc9i3qNgc3W81IUieycOw-0SIzBN8WjEwJPLX_QlkDAJon9zC_D85nvXBPgDQ/s1600-h/0713-$indutarget.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVyMcJQKu0LeG2Nl3wD4z_Vbkm95Vcr3FwHL0szSZddXo6cdp3vTD39NvHg2Cm9XuSW62UcRrDhc9i3qNgc3W81IUieycOw-0SIzBN8WjEwJPLX_QlkDAJon9zC_D85nvXBPgDQ/s400/0713-$indutarget.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857842748958658" /></a><br />The Russell pushed into new high territory, but by the slimmest of margins. I'm not sure I would call this a breakout on this particular index yet.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2PNEIz4Ru7rgTOCCR6LHC6USkjN1xq80hkM6_h4lRrcD5VsusflYARXEFeaXjvjFMddSDs02GoH5nTBkIUjw26Wvp2RWOl6zt6_-eJT14SLnkDHxVoCJDhjgE8j9_V5r9ievhJQ/s1600-h/0713$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2PNEIz4Ru7rgTOCCR6LHC6USkjN1xq80hkM6_h4lRrcD5VsusflYARXEFeaXjvjFMddSDs02GoH5nTBkIUjw26Wvp2RWOl6zt6_-eJT14SLnkDHxVoCJDhjgE8j9_V5r9ievhJQ/s400/0713$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857842748958674" /></a><br />I rarely use arithmetic scale, but I am going to do so here on the S&P 500 to make a point. What I want you to see is the amazing drama that has taken place over the past quarter century, with the S&P exploding to a high in January 2000, collapsing terribly in a bear market, and then flying yet again to the prior high. Is this the mother of all double tops? Only time will tell. Although the bulls that visit this blog certainly would say no.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-YKpPoBQtIkL5WbQq66phhhuCOv6seqToWJUEmycE6oMuewJNDXaGLBVglRBqhUZWReKXuxyxYmMm03K51ZHAUq523hPeg6o6iq25nwTyfxvJuN2eSMSxdX2Elbhsj_g94Huvdw/s1600-h/0713-$spxdoubletop.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-YKpPoBQtIkL5WbQq66phhhuCOv6seqToWJUEmycE6oMuewJNDXaGLBVglRBqhUZWReKXuxyxYmMm03K51ZHAUq523hPeg6o6iq25nwTyfxvJuN2eSMSxdX2Elbhsj_g94Huvdw/s400/0713-$spxdoubletop.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857847043925986" /></a><br />My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiamAMVfIMlrj8dQ6rKUJUjkpHxd9Dw2NzUYqlrCDMo3eWhPVH2711w5ykgV5VYVmlYOIozbrSIr6mhTorkXvQ10l9l1B4DiqWAMo3VC3CAKLS3IRCoREzPq58v-S8LtHyIWxEb0A/s1600-h/0713-bhi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiamAMVfIMlrj8dQ6rKUJUjkpHxd9Dw2NzUYqlrCDMo3eWhPVH2711w5ykgV5VYVmlYOIozbrSIr6mhTorkXvQ10l9l1B4DiqWAMo3VC3CAKLS3IRCoREzPq58v-S8LtHyIWxEb0A/s400/0713-bhi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857847043926002" /></a><br />Colgate Palmolive (CL) has tipped its hand by cracking beneath that supporting trendline. It also seems to be in the throes of a triple top. I'm going to buy puts on this Monday morning.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLie4HvkoESkYUR9GMeMoCS2pfDL6yAsZzuFgCJmQF7F__35R_h7tKQdWiIGWiqGI-D2WE6HQG8cX1On1L5S-WoVcioLovjdd79Z9OWyQWVcOGxEGXHKVHxPnz9qcv881vZehgQ/s1600-h/0713-cl.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTLie4HvkoESkYUR9GMeMoCS2pfDL6yAsZzuFgCJmQF7F__35R_h7tKQdWiIGWiqGI-D2WE6HQG8cX1On1L5S-WoVcioLovjdd79Z9OWyQWVcOGxEGXHKVHxPnz9qcv881vZehgQ/s400/0713-cl.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857593640855394" /></a><br />My CROX puts went up some today, as this high-flying stock actually eased a bit in an otherwise very strong market.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiioeQxrMFuB1JjrBAU4jSPLTIhqJ3MVWhyaMeX9QajuBl8dl5rbKQUdCXmsWBLWO0xYGl91V8u_N3jGrLxmREBu2mYeBmb-hGA47B7dXAlvG8aADuICKCNr_8xyuHdoTAgGoJJQ/s1600-h/0713-crox.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiioeQxrMFuB1JjrBAU4jSPLTIhqJ3MVWhyaMeX9QajuBl8dl5rbKQUdCXmsWBLWO0xYGl91V8u_N3jGrLxmREBu2mYeBmb-hGA47B7dXAlvG8aADuICKCNr_8xyuHdoTAgGoJJQ/s400/0713-crox.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857597935822706" /></a><br />Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgStmzHpZVxaf5566L5OySnyWecktieiARJR_IKMHtsoK4wvbWBrgV0A1cvVXjlX_-IOToSEsbJ9XoKAIumXUewwo4G9wcH_Va81Q6MdEHEpj3pKlBgPK7curWMSdHxyZrlKgZinQ/s1600-h/0713-cvx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgStmzHpZVxaf5566L5OySnyWecktieiARJR_IKMHtsoK4wvbWBrgV0A1cvVXjlX_-IOToSEsbJ9XoKAIumXUewwo4G9wcH_Va81Q6MdEHEpj3pKlBgPK7curWMSdHxyZrlKgZinQ/s400/0713-cvx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857602230790018" /></a><br />If you are dying to short (or buy puts) on a Dow stock, you could do worse than IBM.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNQ7so1tFiek44E5GoI1wJnw2LWeDBkng0EuYltAM6vghN3-lQdhogwcoX2DQZ4fbEvtVgBW0MF11c-71yq30UeduDodsPaWpnKfCefjh8VdMe-p3O1fxcH7GxtEcQw4byuSVeJw/s1600-h/0713-ibm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNQ7so1tFiek44E5GoI1wJnw2LWeDBkng0EuYltAM6vghN3-lQdhogwcoX2DQZ4fbEvtVgBW0MF11c-71yq30UeduDodsPaWpnKfCefjh8VdMe-p3O1fxcH7GxtEcQw4byuSVeJw/s400/0713-ibm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857602230790034" /></a><br />My puts on Radio Shack (RSH) had a nice day too. It's pretty easy to see why. New highs on the market mean ecstasy without the need for batteries. Demand drops. Sales drop. Battery Club suffers.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVG9B53A6u-FH1YZhQBtN4wntRtrtilFM1_PIx8Uq4ne2ffH59ORyelJJeVH3HaqjedIjAWcEDbzXV150bk6emhFBzW3LlgWWDlSzGTS6roBbj7KJLeRv-Gtl2eJai6D-7J2luA/s1600-h/0713-rsh.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLVG9B53A6u-FH1YZhQBtN4wntRtrtilFM1_PIx8Uq4ne2ffH59ORyelJJeVH3HaqjedIjAWcEDbzXV150bk6emhFBzW3LlgWWDlSzGTS6roBbj7KJLeRv-Gtl2eJai6D-7J2luA/s400/0713-rsh.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857606525757346" /></a><br />Have a good weekend.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWq6Xjdmjv-XPGPn2kLdCsUR5uTo_gGx7fioLTGb9jdzu0fRtrQg5Fix0LdLZbCuTPu7MjxSP3lv9Yh4_CXq6SkgaeuVmsog6lys6-kZBlo081UixslR3cgg_j7IKghVZDvdsCtg/s1600-h/0713-$godown.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWq6Xjdmjv-XPGPn2kLdCsUR5uTo_gGx7fioLTGb9jdzu0fRtrQg5Fix0LdLZbCuTPu7MjxSP3lv9Yh4_CXq6SkgaeuVmsog6lys6-kZBlo081UixslR3cgg_j7IKghVZDvdsCtg/s400/0713-$godown.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086857838453991346" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com70tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-69564536498396828742007-07-12T19:27:00.000-07:002007-07-12T20:28:17.364-07:00Melt-UpWell, it finally happened. We broke out of the consolidation that's been grinding along for six weeks now. The action was just bizarre. I suppose shorts were getting squeezed left and right, and bulls were jumping in with both feet. It was like an orgy of buying.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTht61wOAY5fy13AuW_JFP8fYvrLFTrgI57jVkqt67ArVlED1MfmANDO0maMLRz9dvX61uCri6qM3KZElNtcRagkKTvEpnyGx2kMCmZzWVpdvhhqBYYcaM1epWYzNzPLumNyOKIw/s1600-h/0708-$induintradaybreakout.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTht61wOAY5fy13AuW_JFP8fYvrLFTrgI57jVkqt67ArVlED1MfmANDO0maMLRz9dvX61uCri6qM3KZElNtcRagkKTvEpnyGx2kMCmZzWVpdvhhqBYYcaM1epWYzNzPLumNyOKIw/s400/0708-$induintradaybreakout.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086510345534973746" /></a><br />Based on traditional technical measures, the target for the Dow at this point would be 14,100. I'm not saying it will necessarily get there, but this has been a really clean consolidation, and it seems a sensible conclusion. Particularly given the strong psychological import of the Big Round Number 14,000.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKBPVoVUrNp9iqhANi_Ru3RmIEJ2nHbEaTvpimZORSbM8g4P_oPZno6P_55y5SxA_k9br5aMupZHwwh2g8YQio8Xnr4MF6tDUo3mSQ8AfuMYBI95PznkQgCegPQLdy51ot7RHOpw/s1600-h/0708-$indubreakout.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKBPVoVUrNp9iqhANi_Ru3RmIEJ2nHbEaTvpimZORSbM8g4P_oPZno6P_55y5SxA_k9br5aMupZHwwh2g8YQio8Xnr4MF6tDUo3mSQ8AfuMYBI95PznkQgCegPQLdy51ot7RHOpw/s400/0708-$indubreakout.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086510354124908354" /></a><br />My index-of-choice for puts, $RUT, wasn't as strong as the other indexes, and luckily I was kicked out of my puts the moment the market opened (sparing me most of the day's strength). The high price of 856.39 is awfully close.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Wz451TfdigVdfK9mQSzKCcdgK5-NYdDQEENSNKtyGqdNr5c3DIO-IEobwnBt06AVU-PiQFVc8aGMslcK7sALqgNA3rEWRWaN49uh3pvJBFmks6bxEMDfTJzW20LgJh7RFW0X8g/s1600-h/0708-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Wz451TfdigVdfK9mQSzKCcdgK5-NYdDQEENSNKtyGqdNr5c3DIO-IEobwnBt06AVU-PiQFVc8aGMslcK7sALqgNA3rEWRWaN49uh3pvJBFmks6bxEMDfTJzW20LgJh7RFW0X8g/s400/0708-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086510358419875666" /></a><br />Looking at a long-term S&P 500 chart, you can see the index is approaching its lifetime high reached nearly eight years ago.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMsdnj2vn7rUu3-JY7nOk8KAwJeL7uc2tJVW3bHfgTV0cW8p2KQ4Vp2yT4YlKW-owYRGFdN0qeOGdSD7CMVvAJOpDGy3FfqgfRuYfperT4zIV08s7m4Lmas7TDmRcQ5asXfQeybQ/s1600-h/0708-$spxlongterm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMsdnj2vn7rUu3-JY7nOk8KAwJeL7uc2tJVW3bHfgTV0cW8p2KQ4Vp2yT4YlKW-owYRGFdN0qeOGdSD7CMVvAJOpDGy3FfqgfRuYfperT4zIV08s7m4Lmas7TDmRcQ5asXfQeybQ/s400/0708-$spxlongterm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509804369094370" /></a><br />Now, a moment about the comments section. I totally expected the bulls to rip off their bras and swing them over their heads today - - that's fine, because I would be just as obnoxious if the Dow was <span style="font-weight:bold;">down </span>283 points. There's one particularly poster who doesn't crawl out from under his rock very often, but when he does, his posts are little more than hate and vitriol (he is hiding behind a screen name, but his name is Ryan and he lives in Phoenix). I look forward to being on a new blog platform where I can <span style="font-style:italic;">block </span>sub-humans like this.<br /><br />In the middle of 1999, Newsweek proved once again the "cultural saturation" rule by having the cover below. The market still had six more months of climbing before it started eroding (not going into full bear mode for another six months after that), but it definitely was a signal of a looming top.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipayqCTtbNGmBdiDqyIFjCUGz9BE8b19B9GNVuxlSDXcubaWFWF3dgCh-0m1uJyJhEMHffJ3_p2EMDq8r8Aq-Slv6AR2UfGpTpjfx4a-b_L44VpthXrIm2unO1FCae_cD3dxCJ1g/s1600-h/0708-$startwhine.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipayqCTtbNGmBdiDqyIFjCUGz9BE8b19B9GNVuxlSDXcubaWFWF3dgCh-0m1uJyJhEMHffJ3_p2EMDq8r8Aq-Slv6AR2UfGpTpjfx4a-b_L44VpthXrIm2unO1FCae_cD3dxCJ1g/s400/0708-$startwhine.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509808664061682" /></a><br />A new best-seller reminds me of the same cultural phenomenon. I actually picked up this book a few days ago and am looking forward to reading it. I guess I'm a frustrated sociologist.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEttAPQ_o9hNmidzQkjuEX5OGFwcAxU3ts3JvuFjZdywLOCW_SiKmlAj0lCxlVizIyswS9CuHKg4Gs2X-Ms9PYjTpKfmyOltEQr-lVNDs527QUcGbCfJzg_ghgjZMY_ebAMXPaPw/s1600-h/0708-$startrichistan.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEttAPQ_o9hNmidzQkjuEX5OGFwcAxU3ts3JvuFjZdywLOCW_SiKmlAj0lCxlVizIyswS9CuHKg4Gs2X-Ms9PYjTpKfmyOltEQr-lVNDs527QUcGbCfJzg_ghgjZMY_ebAMXPaPw/s400/0708-$startrichistan.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509812959028994" /></a><br />The $VIX has been beaten back into submission again. I'm surprised how cheap puts are these days. I am seeing lots of November puts that are priced no higher than August puts - - - time premium seems to be about zero for some stocks. In most cases, I am seeing in-the-money puts that are barely higher priced than their intrinsic value. So they're basically giving them away.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0WPf8YhXccqwyxbDQ0qkjbA4giJYT0KzrKBbRVcBAoz_v-Tp4Zb7XJ-v97inlnbNJkUknaz3fmW_vYbPAqcFKw9ZPb1gcdxerc8-xK9_Sba89Gm5lq6DI-vcpjqWvvrzrfBf0bA/s1600-h/0708-$vixlow.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0WPf8YhXccqwyxbDQ0qkjbA4giJYT0KzrKBbRVcBAoz_v-Tp4Zb7XJ-v97inlnbNJkUknaz3fmW_vYbPAqcFKw9ZPb1gcdxerc8-xK9_Sba89Gm5lq6DI-vcpjqWvvrzrfBf0bA/s400/0708-$vixlow.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509817253996306" /></a><br />Apache (APA) is a pretty promising bullish pattern.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlG-AtP5IscopWuXdqYK4ekFlm06FtYAty97J5NPXL1yMbUgRshOvxXl9bWYg5HykkAgCHTGuyviHIas3JX64od8I8lXahDvUneWymLeVbl8MecdRYr9pLwOkAbqRMJ3pBTwNcTg/s1600-h/0708-longapa.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlG-AtP5IscopWuXdqYK4ekFlm06FtYAty97J5NPXL1yMbUgRshOvxXl9bWYg5HykkAgCHTGuyviHIas3JX64od8I8lXahDvUneWymLeVbl8MecdRYr9pLwOkAbqRMJ3pBTwNcTg/s400/0708-longapa.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509821548963618" /></a><br />And Blockbuster (BBI), which I've mentioned before, also looks bullish.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-a__HFGtHK5VlnRVOcjjz7x8yGr3fm_QAEWnEARQCRzH7S12VB2x09aORKkC_BpZ4ma0K5AxESUxK0IRF02Ghe5c0oFjoViwDATP7zl2Eoaiuyoy4ws3cogQLqxl0BWKoaShbrQ/s1600-h/0708-longbbi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-a__HFGtHK5VlnRVOcjjz7x8yGr3fm_QAEWnEARQCRzH7S12VB2x09aORKkC_BpZ4ma0K5AxESUxK0IRF02Ghe5c0oFjoViwDATP7zl2Eoaiuyoy4ws3cogQLqxl0BWKoaShbrQ/s400/0708-longbbi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509525196220050" /></a><br />I think JC Penney (JCP) is at or near its full retracement today. I'm ready to jump into puts on this one again.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiof36Ffg8oYt5vdgSgRX1Iu_Q6dagnB38ToHEhbS02kr_aUDwdZNvf_E4YnuNkj4Hv1iIPnqYdXMtPxmn_aRcAAKvD4r3aBIyNKUv72NySn59H4kSw0wk9Q_-PfvQJpy40HhuftA/s1600-h/0708-shortjcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiof36Ffg8oYt5vdgSgRX1Iu_Q6dagnB38ToHEhbS02kr_aUDwdZNvf_E4YnuNkj4Hv1iIPnqYdXMtPxmn_aRcAAKvD4r3aBIyNKUv72NySn59H4kSw0wk9Q_-PfvQJpy40HhuftA/s400/0708-shortjcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509533786154658" /></a><br />There are three stocks that look surprising flaccid given today's action. The first is Baidu (BIDU), which is part of beanie's bombast.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_YEkfyHND8WNlU28LWerhoeh8aHoPaMZGet41wmlCXeHflXFmm6wUnyo9KtMTDItUDzSNQAhHnCOv31WxQz9sUbBo3Is1qFy0wwPZDtpjfZIwoN4pBQu61RA7af7LNk1MrnrJIA/s1600-h/0708-weakbidu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_YEkfyHND8WNlU28LWerhoeh8aHoPaMZGet41wmlCXeHflXFmm6wUnyo9KtMTDItUDzSNQAhHnCOv31WxQz9sUbBo3Is1qFy0wwPZDtpjfZIwoN4pBQu61RA7af7LNk1MrnrJIA/s400/0708-weakbidu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509533786154674" /></a><br />The second is CROX - - I admit, I see the shoes everywhere (<span style="font-style:italic;">ahem </span>- I only wear Eccos, in case you were going to send me some shoes) but I still think it's a fad stock.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuR7nxXStNfglPRrteHpVCLS8KMEUIn9hqKERgH3O03Bzgma6z7RsvDxoqSjocgG3KroqZaMzF0UKag6DGalts8Bj_ayKZgeZEu49ji4hTsuhxO_-NuvJcg3BaIepBQKDOBmCWEg/s1600-h/0708-weakcrox.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuR7nxXStNfglPRrteHpVCLS8KMEUIn9hqKERgH3O03Bzgma6z7RsvDxoqSjocgG3KroqZaMzF0UKag6DGalts8Bj_ayKZgeZEu49ji4hTsuhxO_-NuvJcg3BaIepBQKDOBmCWEg/s400/0708-weakcrox.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509542376089282" /></a><br />And finally, Google (GOOG). For a stock like Google to go up 0.16% on a day like this is pretty lame.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifkEC9m8yFN1KxUnWxHmgvtBueUZvWV3l5HkZNIeE0cCaCS3Fhm1I-10XixviHpsyaCnqvnjmNcxRwts89ulsW8AfyDXOLy9zjmA6aJ8ZdeHq_KIu8skm4XnJ5wwzt9vF5uRyYhA/s1600-h/0708-weakgoog.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifkEC9m8yFN1KxUnWxHmgvtBueUZvWV3l5HkZNIeE0cCaCS3Fhm1I-10XixviHpsyaCnqvnjmNcxRwts89ulsW8AfyDXOLy9zjmA6aJ8ZdeHq_KIu8skm4XnJ5wwzt9vF5uRyYhA/s400/0708-weakgoog.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086509546671056594" /></a><br />Today's rally was supposedly prompted by strong consumer spending. For a real view of American Consumerism, enjoy this clip from George Carlin - - the portion on consumers starts at the 4:00 minute mark.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/mkdXCeCMaG4"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mkdXCeCMaG4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com45tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-34986949182110675462007-07-12T09:19:00.001-07:002007-07-12T09:21:10.623-07:00Careful What You Wish For!A rare intraday post......<br /><br />I said in my post <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/07/its-coming-its-coming.html">from late last night</a> that I wish the market would break out of its consolidation and give us some direction. Well - it did - to the upside!<br /><br />For the Dow Jones at least, there's no doubt about it - this is a clear breakout. I guess this market won't stop going up until every last public company has been acquired and made private. Then we can just shut the equity markets down for good.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFTKL4kANvFWCiNBdy4ZbmxTUr8X8X0AHpujRZCJLf4YeMfB801kZqMBYfHZDjUud3_FwAeGGdYuiG16dpCwdL0vqEubp7FgtnMwgDRJBc8h_99UggJvygnfxC1XW1FaQXsaMUVw/s1600-h/0712-awwwshit.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFTKL4kANvFWCiNBdy4ZbmxTUr8X8X0AHpujRZCJLf4YeMfB801kZqMBYfHZDjUud3_FwAeGGdYuiG16dpCwdL0vqEubp7FgtnMwgDRJBc8h_99UggJvygnfxC1XW1FaQXsaMUVw/s400/0712-awwwshit.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086346093100672642" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com54tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-65042621038081005182007-07-11T20:54:00.000-07:002007-07-11T23:38:16.726-07:00NYSE, NASDAQ, GODOTSweet Jesus on a Biscuit......can we please get some direction? Yesterday's 148 point drop on the Dow was encouraging. But follow through? Of course not. We bounce back today by half that amount. Zzzzzzzzzz. Give us as break - literally - through one of those price lines!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0hMOQXwcLFxL_yfmZiGRfmq-HIAVbhSLysPSbZZebFHqGNGLJAiVDL1i4hP__fgCUSAxeilf1dp70lEHb23Dy3O3pq4dDMYU0Hoxbq6jwhwNGPPxJpQcMhtKJVlZX8pVQYxrIsA/s1600-h/0711-$godot.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0hMOQXwcLFxL_yfmZiGRfmq-HIAVbhSLysPSbZZebFHqGNGLJAiVDL1i4hP__fgCUSAxeilf1dp70lEHb23Dy3O3pq4dDMYU0Hoxbq6jwhwNGPPxJpQcMhtKJVlZX8pVQYxrIsA/s400/0711-$godot.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086191147860502114" /></a><br />Oh, a bit of housekeeping. I've made a couple of cosmetic improvements. First, at the request of a comment made to the previous post, I have reduced the number of posts displayed down from 7 to 3. That will speed up loading time and make for a shorter page to scroll. Second, I've changed the scheme of my charts to what I think is a much cleaner appearance. Let me know what you think. Oh, and in case you've forgotten, click on any chart to see a much bigger version.<br /><br />Back to charts. The Russell 2000 is in the same boat every other index is - if it breaks beneath a very clearly defined support level, it's time to rock and roll. If it continues to fart around in this range, it's just going to keep boring the pants off of everyone. And if it breaks into new high territory, that's when I climb to the top span of the Golden Gate.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxdIPvh_pOkacXeLAYDxSmYqK2Rx7NrQM1D7eN6vClC2xf6GK_NX8v_lq7pFZrPAMQLUWDVJb7EiZRz5R8KMJ9IxaGCZGv9q1ioZ1yMk3fhZAC5-KDqWVhhlAsTZQOUznBU4GboA/s1600-h/0711-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxdIPvh_pOkacXeLAYDxSmYqK2Rx7NrQM1D7eN6vClC2xf6GK_NX8v_lq7pFZrPAMQLUWDVJb7EiZRz5R8KMJ9IxaGCZGv9q1ioZ1yMk3fhZAC5-KDqWVhhlAsTZQOUznBU4GboA/s400/0711-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086190976061810194" /></a><br />I bought a bunch of puts on the $XAU today based on its price position relative to its well-defined channel. A stop-loss on this would not be expensive, since we're mushed up so high against the channel.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxNVWlljeGZHMK3drkRkbGNuuVPC-nxHvNrpUOtztTE7CfdLc9_epbpt0yND917K9gewagd9-Q8dzMsmDaTG0K35U8q7EVbg8lhC5P4K_SdAtVp5yghMc5a2SIy6XxgXz_BYC-ew/s1600-h/0711-$xau.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxNVWlljeGZHMK3drkRkbGNuuVPC-nxHvNrpUOtztTE7CfdLc9_epbpt0yND917K9gewagd9-Q8dzMsmDaTG0K35U8q7EVbg8lhC5P4K_SdAtVp5yghMc5a2SIy6XxgXz_BYC-ew/s400/0711-$xau.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086190980356777506" /></a><br />Cardinal Health (CAH), mentioned here numerous times, is on the cusp of a breakdown. But until it goes beneath that neckline, it is a pattern in formation, and nothing more.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM5UmWbV1kxu2aU3Lj1voTT-614DAd3ay5osX4q3xYizjeJnZoiKT8YviPdps2mvTR62-QvXF3PtyCWba3mzCn3FaqSYbSOOp0A2bu_IQ8Ak_z13Vg5qegA2tqSpSsj4-iEGs23g/s1600-h/0711-cah.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM5UmWbV1kxu2aU3Lj1voTT-614DAd3ay5osX4q3xYizjeJnZoiKT8YviPdps2mvTR62-QvXF3PtyCWba3mzCn3FaqSYbSOOp0A2bu_IQ8Ak_z13Vg5qegA2tqSpSsj4-iEGs23g/s400/0711-cah.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086190984651744818" /></a><br />I found the puts on Chinese equity-based FXI were fairly heavily traded, so I acquired some today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1KBTfisZ2XSUZ2OsT0nilmwlj0ThnpHCnIUayGGnTAP3dhiY9vw9UgSSZ70lLZdjI0oi_Xn-iMndoC8Akt1k7VSai__bxMEEiNuhiK1aaSN4BNktFK-sRpGy4dNjuocBfEYEiDg/s1600-h/0711-fxi.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1KBTfisZ2XSUZ2OsT0nilmwlj0ThnpHCnIUayGGnTAP3dhiY9vw9UgSSZ70lLZdjI0oi_Xn-iMndoC8Akt1k7VSai__bxMEEiNuhiK1aaSN4BNktFK-sRpGy4dNjuocBfEYEiDg/s400/0711-fxi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086190988946712130" /></a><br />I mentioned McGraw Hill (MHP) as a short <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/06/son-of-triple-witch.html">last month</a>, and it has lost about 15% of its value since then.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHbP9uDc0LNWrnHalLYQLEXzYAfmevqKahXkT9ixqNRcbyB4PEhke3Sns6IM9eOsLH6WbuPoGVtOuL4r2H7lyams0p0mNw-gKWJyf9JAs5BClJ_J8_pSV6Q7y4nPCLUr47Io4Mag/s1600-h/0711-mhp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHbP9uDc0LNWrnHalLYQLEXzYAfmevqKahXkT9ixqNRcbyB4PEhke3Sns6IM9eOsLH6WbuPoGVtOuL4r2H7lyams0p0mNw-gKWJyf9JAs5BClJ_J8_pSV6Q7y4nPCLUr47Io4Mag/s400/0711-mhp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086190993241679442" /></a><br />Now, as you know, I acquired a couple of iPhones on National Steve Jobs Day, and I made a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmjW6f9AcL4">little video</a> about it. It's a terrific product. There's a ton of wizardy and magic in it, and I'm proud to show it off.<br /><br />But, Lord almighty, this thing has bugs. Bugs, bugs, bugs! And I'm not even a heavy user. I just checked, and I've used it a total of 9 hours and 36 minutes. That's decent, but it's hardly an exhaustive field test.<br /><br />In that time I've tripped over a surprising array of really serious issues. Like the fact that the phone outright hangs so hard that I have to reboot it. And the lack of basic editing features, such as double-clicking on a word not selecting that word. Or the inability to insert a cursor within a word (e.g. if you misspell a word, you have to erase the whole frickin' thing and retype it instead of correcting the offending letter).<br /><br />The worst bug of all is Safari crashing. Which it does. Constantly. So a typical example is like this.......you're cruising along, looking at a web page, scrolling up or down a bit. And then - bam! - it throws you right back to the "home" screen of the iPhone. No big deal, you say, I'll simply go back to Safari (the web browser). Sure, you can do that - - but you're starting at scratch again. The page you were looking at is gone.<br /><br />This happens to me so constantly that I'm put off on looking at any web content anymore. It isn't just a nuisance. It basically eviscerates one of the principal reasons for having this thing!<br /><br />Added to which, every time I plug the iPhone into its dock for some juice, this stupid window appears on my desktop, so I have to cancel out of it. Annoying as hell. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Lq7mACp9TPpSwSjDJc1WlluNLzpqg4W0I_QJ08YJxvXWxLTTYpa0Vo1bqCSsl3ToVl2OoMaLIZ20dhrmQRVnjm6Mx_c7O8XvNXtwAAlReU6k2U9DaPmEHDyrKvzA8pYJeyfY_A/s1600-h/0711-$phonewindow.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Lq7mACp9TPpSwSjDJc1WlluNLzpqg4W0I_QJ08YJxvXWxLTTYpa0Vo1bqCSsl3ToVl2OoMaLIZ20dhrmQRVnjm6Mx_c7O8XvNXtwAAlReU6k2U9DaPmEHDyrKvzA8pYJeyfY_A/s400/0711-$phonewindow.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5086191147860502130" /></a><br />Luckily, someone has helped me to release some of my frustration by asking the question: Will It Blend?<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/75bIXkP77S4"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/75bIXkP77S4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1519912889596861002007-07-10T15:16:00.000-07:002007-07-10T17:17:54.849-07:00Spock GrokI was going to write a huge entry today about emotions and the market. But it's already four hours after the close, and I'm still stung with guilt pangs from such a late posting last night, so I'm going to leave my essay for another day.<br /><br />I will say, though, that I yearn to be like Spock during times like this. The problem with these range-bound markets is that, for a bear, (a) when at the low end of the range, I'm flush with profits, I'm totally committed to my positions, and I'm into way more risk than I should be since I've been doing so well; yet (b) when at the high end of the range, when I'm sacrificed some or all of those aforementioned profits, I'm skittish and risk-averse. Obviously being just the opposite would be helpful on both counts. Spock is a cool customer.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGF85jseB3UmBU33V4poBGCuao334JFZqNgHAvRZitVnRGQCYbKVh_ZLN7daOpUUELhaSCuPqZhIW0eo6L_MpB-Rx9JsOqXssFUm1lBz6VNkK3-9eTjsl4hgWdYtHgWoKlHJnpog/s1600-h/0710-$spock.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGF85jseB3UmBU33V4poBGCuao334JFZqNgHAvRZitVnRGQCYbKVh_ZLN7daOpUUELhaSCuPqZhIW0eo6L_MpB-Rx9JsOqXssFUm1lBz6VNkK3-9eTjsl4hgWdYtHgWoKlHJnpog/s400/0710-$spock.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085720498337478930" /></a><br />Of course, we're all only human, and markets run completely contrary to human nature. That's why there are a handful of big winners - - those that defy the greed/fear trap - - and the rest of us are just schlubs. Let's face it - emotions and the financial markets are just another example of one of life's bad combinations.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxFDZueUeNMXPrfn2MlJc0XBYmLJ8GNcYk7ejw2lRaFEXjM8ouPtLi-P6sa5kW96_JErbcsSTEXKPqq9tSv_m9ADEZuZ3Esy5M3cxvbFbW-6Y7sWw-W4EJnFfIZaaz-yvHx19OQ/s1600-h/0710-$combination.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXxFDZueUeNMXPrfn2MlJc0XBYmLJ8GNcYk7ejw2lRaFEXjM8ouPtLi-P6sa5kW96_JErbcsSTEXKPqq9tSv_m9ADEZuZ3Esy5M3cxvbFbW-6Y7sWw-W4EJnFfIZaaz-yvHx19OQ/s400/0710-$combination.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085720498337478946" /></a><br />I haven't mentioned China in a while. I'll say this.........long term, I think China is going to be king of the world, or at least a prince. Whereas its neighbor Russia will, in my opinion, collapse back into socialism or communism within the next decade. My optimism for China's long-term prospect's aside, what we're witnessing now is a bubble, pure and simple, driven largely by embarrassing naievete on a greedy yet clueless investing public.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6k2KvB3BrsnxhFhUmhzrKHY9Up8n-owD5c9oC_G_eQI1Gh_GzI3PKFswE-S1dJIoMFvav3072C4nOR7ZV01H7kOpAFjj65ZMqagoZNp9KLU4v1vhkr5FxKG2htVL_49aV_sPO1A/s1600-h/0710-$china.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6k2KvB3BrsnxhFhUmhzrKHY9Up8n-owD5c9oC_G_eQI1Gh_GzI3PKFswE-S1dJIoMFvav3072C4nOR7ZV01H7kOpAFjj65ZMqagoZNp9KLU4v1vhkr5FxKG2htVL_49aV_sPO1A/s400/0710-$china.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085720502632446258" /></a><br />The Dow fell 148 points today. It doesn't mean much until and unless we break 13,250. If we do, I'll probably return to being the arrogant pr*ck you all love so dearly. Until then, my hands remain peacefully clasped on my lap.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNX8sN5GTMUpxD9LvkXd5-agGex9K-V6J_zNZFnMSoM0LQF12N3Cz1CgUNzG2BK0lq9eroqQ-ucOzZcIzyYXRmpBhh43G3JC0hnRNi3YlprSn1LXy3HjsquKgUWxOhq0_3qeLj8Q/s1600-h/0710-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNX8sN5GTMUpxD9LvkXd5-agGex9K-V6J_zNZFnMSoM0LQF12N3Cz1CgUNzG2BK0lq9eroqQ-ucOzZcIzyYXRmpBhh43G3JC0hnRNi3YlprSn1LXy3HjsquKgUWxOhq0_3qeLj8Q/s400/0710-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085720515517348162" /></a><br />The Russell 2000 had an even worse (that is, better) day. My index puts on the $RUT did great.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFPNNAkxbt15Mz9IXIsOKku2Qa37wPGhAd_-HlDEEQYrFbg3KEAXVNk6XKidh2Se9QdEUKPEcjGn47x-QUGqdWvb82rEn8kN8Dpm7YdIEWeQamZvhTsSmTKJVvnvniMVGB23VSkA/s1600-h/0710-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFPNNAkxbt15Mz9IXIsOKku2Qa37wPGhAd_-HlDEEQYrFbg3KEAXVNk6XKidh2Se9QdEUKPEcjGn47x-QUGqdWvb82rEn8kN8Dpm7YdIEWeQamZvhTsSmTKJVvnvniMVGB23VSkA/s400/0710-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719944286697666" /></a><br />The S&P is approaching the re-entry point on that channel is busted above a number of weeks ago.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpXT53_eZQVYjR37JT7oLoQwBrhASQTM0vyxE3jJr7SsrQnBIhcaT261MFobal0G2r5BcVF3RFGvFuwWgK13QDmwR8m579-vwF5nR76cGBAzeTl__13xqGalSbEes5mweZVfnIxg/s1600-h/0710-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpXT53_eZQVYjR37JT7oLoQwBrhASQTM0vyxE3jJr7SsrQnBIhcaT261MFobal0G2r5BcVF3RFGvFuwWgK13QDmwR8m579-vwF5nR76cGBAzeTl__13xqGalSbEes5mweZVfnIxg/s400/0710-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719961466566866" /></a><br />I've stopped buying puts on AutoZone - there's only so much punishment I enjoy - but this stock is really looking toppy.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9yvEBl-xz_7NGEYQclKG7c3GG_psFPvY_xNKASjhwesuevbiBO3R280EENVsfOb3meTyxoubqFJCJc3wnB5zkjllQQTR_6hu25depdvIxQ0MBC4pTbRT8RTDhe9xJcWqiVzynw/s1600-h/0710-azo.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9yvEBl-xz_7NGEYQclKG7c3GG_psFPvY_xNKASjhwesuevbiBO3R280EENVsfOb3meTyxoubqFJCJc3wnB5zkjllQQTR_6hu25depdvIxQ0MBC4pTbRT8RTDhe9xJcWqiVzynw/s400/0710-azo.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719965761534178" /></a><br />Ol' beanie has mentioned BIDU so much I might as well put up a chart. My hat is off to any chart that can do this on a day like today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYL2Jl_jD4sPyGF6Tc9vcWGUue0SJkGpd-AaI6VUnB285eFFh3lpqk9U3ZLFufthz5jrvsHIDgirpme51RFSLKRxyhjYqgsld8AbAAKsrblSSstQ9bsPpd4Wb_rROsEhpAVjSvFg/s1600-h/0710-bidu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYL2Jl_jD4sPyGF6Tc9vcWGUue0SJkGpd-AaI6VUnB285eFFh3lpqk9U3ZLFufthz5jrvsHIDgirpme51RFSLKRxyhjYqgsld8AbAAKsrblSSstQ9bsPpd4Wb_rROsEhpAVjSvFg/s400/0710-bidu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719974351468786" /></a><br />I added to my Capital One Financial (COF) position.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbtbP2BoJ3zX9saK6X_KLmy-o1nR4NH5IIwVq0LYE78ackXmoMTR0N0YX6uI4VgM3Fik1zc7Hir-akWCk_K16g8hLrO9ueW3gq_tD3bw8ngFYJ0YiywcInlF9uxNmlP7AiFrmMwQ/s1600-h/0710-cof.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbtbP2BoJ3zX9saK6X_KLmy-o1nR4NH5IIwVq0LYE78ackXmoMTR0N0YX6uI4VgM3Fik1zc7Hir-akWCk_K16g8hLrO9ueW3gq_tD3bw8ngFYJ0YiywcInlF9uxNmlP7AiFrmMwQ/s400/0710-cof.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719978646436098" /></a><br />The DIA puts aren't as clean a deal as the IWM or RUT puts, but they're OK - - decent volume and a 10 cent not-too-terrible bid/ask spread. I did a day trade on these today with good results.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJudcrZgVMc4xjkr0sniEXMR3hFpHPt2vTv6r39cmaPmlECFGoxj9ZxAM6DoqDboSPqH9NfwIDJL-aOsECCiqaxtoWwxjFm4HvR02Ms492lq8a1445qpUKGrMd7zlCYP5aNSorUA/s1600-h/0710-dia.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJudcrZgVMc4xjkr0sniEXMR3hFpHPt2vTv6r39cmaPmlECFGoxj9ZxAM6DoqDboSPqH9NfwIDJL-aOsECCiqaxtoWwxjFm4HvR02Ms492lq8a1445qpUKGrMd7zlCYP5aNSorUA/s400/0710-dia.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719523379902578" /></a><br />Goldman Sachs (GS) continues to be a put position I believe in.....although the big plunge never seems to happen to AJC's employer.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWUrbhP-VYwIwwDeXc8a5sOJkzKbm8EG8tD6S_rtNQsVB2__54ooEQLiS-ZBrpcpPMaT7B8-GDUdxAfcYIy9yC4WaeOw4iuPZD-nwKCaE11kE27dzF-Tvy4MoocPS4Ag0g-aVJZg/s1600-h/0710-gs.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWUrbhP-VYwIwwDeXc8a5sOJkzKbm8EG8tD6S_rtNQsVB2__54ooEQLiS-ZBrpcpPMaT7B8-GDUdxAfcYIy9yC4WaeOw4iuPZD-nwKCaE11kE27dzF-Tvy4MoocPS4Ag0g-aVJZg/s400/0710-gs.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719527674869890" /></a><br />I've mentioned McKesson (MCK) many times because of its Fibonacci fans. Add to this now an imminent head and shoulders breakdown.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7m8PzEx6ykfYZp6H42UXqxr8Rtlma79QxpcE3EMnMn8iXAVxReKksnETLxQjvAMRJGTFTNY02WM30rBdgKmA2IchQopg8w202DdF1QZAvbnO4AXmhtQI6LI_19yTo5leZ_me0aQ/s1600-h/0710-mck.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7m8PzEx6ykfYZp6H42UXqxr8Rtlma79QxpcE3EMnMn8iXAVxReKksnETLxQjvAMRJGTFTNY02WM30rBdgKmA2IchQopg8w202DdF1QZAvbnO4AXmhtQI6LI_19yTo5leZ_me0aQ/s400/0710-mck.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719562034608274" /></a><br />Someone mentioned SHLD in the comments section today.......thanks very much! I've mentioned Sears over and over. It's been inching down. Only today did it really take it in the groin.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnBlwvvdGU18n18g9lv8ubcAUsG5_E48hSEKlmZPES8Qsz97rRHuTNnEyG5wQtwUs4MfjlpNMjxCJG7ZP861VMXAZ4maGkoISgBkROz2S_pDWglTGWPNr6QTZ9dnDoZfw9K81ZeQ/s1600-h/0710-shld.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnBlwvvdGU18n18g9lv8ubcAUsG5_E48hSEKlmZPES8Qsz97rRHuTNnEyG5wQtwUs4MfjlpNMjxCJG7ZP861VMXAZ4maGkoISgBkROz2S_pDWglTGWPNr6QTZ9dnDoZfw9K81ZeQ/s400/0710-shld.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719566329575586" /></a><br />VMC is kind of an interesting pattern, inasmuch as it seems to be breaking below a pretty wide consolidation rectangle.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge0Nr1YwWWvpGQGRK9wG-Am62tmZHBzII_shyphenhyphen6eXP6l6iUzMp5NtE9WQYD6b1vz8r-H79io0o7BNT4BW9g6n_hWuVbBYMu_n1rAfQO5wltMGqcB_oaTpLVMJUDiDKU5AY8YSM9eg/s1600-h/0710-vmc.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge0Nr1YwWWvpGQGRK9wG-Am62tmZHBzII_shyphenhyphen6eXP6l6iUzMp5NtE9WQYD6b1vz8r-H79io0o7BNT4BW9g6n_hWuVbBYMu_n1rAfQO5wltMGqcB_oaTpLVMJUDiDKU5AY8YSM9eg/s400/0710-vmc.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085719574919510194" /></a><br />I heard this tune today, and it reminded me of the markets.......to everything there is a season. Bears: <span style="font-style:italic;">I swear it's not too late.</span><br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/nUworKXBzdE"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/nUworKXBzdE" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-10048848472760196802007-07-09T20:52:00.000-07:002007-07-09T21:12:43.154-07:00FrothHow do you address the heartache of repetitious comments? How does one quell hyperbolic, bombastic touting of the same securities over and over? What can you do to temper a mix of English and Spanish comments? Yes, it's....<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUcDp-EAEGnZZRn8dB4tMLxiMREwl00eK46A1tsq3tEe_UDqphyphenhyphenpx0NH6aW1tEMysOmailx4Uqjrfj_lECDLxhlH_2PMlTYXrPXcgjpgDVeP4uCNEQC0sYRlTxlaUt-1ocr5THMg/s1600-h/0709-$beano.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUcDp-EAEGnZZRn8dB4tMLxiMREwl00eK46A1tsq3tEe_UDqphyphenhyphenpx0NH6aW1tEMysOmailx4Uqjrfj_lECDLxhlH_2PMlTYXrPXcgjpgDVeP4uCNEQC0sYRlTxlaUt-1ocr5THMg/s400/0709-$beano.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413726003394594" /></a><br />Sorry for the very late posting tonight. Long story. While up here in the (relative) wilderness, I was struck by this sign:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAOz3W6U5dGigIWfQFpZBonN00XSxtxb66_YTruqISl7coDuJ2uSqWQyDAQuzV3Fo0ZUxoWFjasJtFiUjdwKzItqMFAPMHLmlrOh6AbdSzevA9vUkp3sCDcJKJHuF9ms5rhPvvA/s1600-h/0709-$bear.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHAOz3W6U5dGigIWfQFpZBonN00XSxtxb66_YTruqISl7coDuJ2uSqWQyDAQuzV3Fo0ZUxoWFjasJtFiUjdwKzItqMFAPMHLmlrOh6AbdSzevA9vUkp3sCDcJKJHuF9ms5rhPvvA/s400/0709-$bear.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413734593329202" /></a><br />The Dow, although up, still didn't signal a break yet. We're still in this flag pattern.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibh-WStg6nEkPLwOV2YfFW2gQIhauWQdsS0uX4-CQvPMAO6nH9kBts0pjSGTHBcQ3bHNBwJRBKi8xzyYvhdXWKLx59d6Ocit7SWOzoeiQSupxqUGEGMhghgSirR9TeMeqm0MzWuA/s1600-h/0709-$ind.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibh-WStg6nEkPLwOV2YfFW2gQIhauWQdsS0uX4-CQvPMAO6nH9kBts0pjSGTHBcQ3bHNBwJRBKi8xzyYvhdXWKLx59d6Ocit7SWOzoeiQSupxqUGEGMhghgSirR9TeMeqm0MzWuA/s400/0709-$ind.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413734593329218" /></a><br />Gold has had a very strong past couple of days, but it also is at the upper reaches of a well-established range.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT8ymlIJtmUOGh1oswGxJgVjopAFvf78OiRFsv88V3yAn5i6if1eLa6wwGl-EswUeU4joiaTXoZnB5PIIcI2VvUiSHCEvKmVuJPMBuXe5qfyE35ZtcvzRR6LPE2iOZGxTXGBjEvQ/s1600-h/0709-$xau.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT8ymlIJtmUOGh1oswGxJgVjopAFvf78OiRFsv88V3yAn5i6if1eLa6wwGl-EswUeU4joiaTXoZnB5PIIcI2VvUiSHCEvKmVuJPMBuXe5qfyE35ZtcvzRR6LPE2iOZGxTXGBjEvQ/s400/0709-$xau.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413743183263826" /></a><br />I've been mentioned BEAS as a short for a couple of weeks now. It has a nice, clean stop at $14.20.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-x1NZc6y3tEtLWsFT_KNACHA4FROeeyYqlF7Q_UAan1ZpD-9MzdplSMk7OKuBkFp90EptunRuTvzPUfMTvsbriNAMPknaZFB9qZV0sZuMgBj-T4lxUrIgy5BN9k_-Q2emPi_DtQ/s1600-h/0709-beas.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-x1NZc6y3tEtLWsFT_KNACHA4FROeeyYqlF7Q_UAan1ZpD-9MzdplSMk7OKuBkFp90EptunRuTvzPUfMTvsbriNAMPknaZFB9qZV0sZuMgBj-T4lxUrIgy5BN9k_-Q2emPi_DtQ/s400/0709-beas.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413747478231138" /></a><br />Sotheby's (BID), which I've succesfully shorted before, might have a nice double top here.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJfhD30z2mSItHWWxpvK9rces8J04W2M6ZYa9O19s7WTqDADzmBf0yEhnyb0Cvqxdz1NOStnsT1bXfhJ1YnGZCMSwOFzSqOuNTAwAqCkicoO8PO5-rSSrj2RfiNr9A53P9msaWsg/s1600-h/0709-bid.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJfhD30z2mSItHWWxpvK9rces8J04W2M6ZYa9O19s7WTqDADzmBf0yEhnyb0Cvqxdz1NOStnsT1bXfhJ1YnGZCMSwOFzSqOuNTAwAqCkicoO8PO5-rSSrj2RfiNr9A53P9msaWsg/s400/0709-bid.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413425355683794" /></a><br />Honeywell might have registered a triple top. All these "mights" and "maybes" are annoying, I'm sure, but it's never clear until some time has passed. These are calculated risks.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQz9-LaajGsZLrJrFqHPatlai2nVKUYskdC9SQDnSMeyi_jSKC-w9Dif-mG2Suz5vrKnZTzZVtgPYMeeWa2PPBUWCOzIBZF8XGFinKjrGzzQgnhzMJLhRIJ-eXsVaXA0-D1D3WGw/s1600-h/0709-hon.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQz9-LaajGsZLrJrFqHPatlai2nVKUYskdC9SQDnSMeyi_jSKC-w9Dif-mG2Suz5vrKnZTzZVtgPYMeeWa2PPBUWCOzIBZF8XGFinKjrGzzQgnhzMJLhRIJ-eXsVaXA0-D1D3WGw/s400/0709-hon.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413429650651106" /></a><br />Martin Marietta (MLM) is awfully lofty and seems to be losing its momentum at these heights.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4O7mzIC5gh-BYdjqoYliB0rXzJ_fqsfbH49JszWnB_bjpeIIKtVePXeNSUQvgq322560Rsi_c4YTvNVSxrqfGNrfBTvdOCd61S-HSGvnAExQ93EWWZpYCP9Gt4RSVyM1-2oSLLQ/s1600-h/0709-mlm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4O7mzIC5gh-BYdjqoYliB0rXzJ_fqsfbH49JszWnB_bjpeIIKtVePXeNSUQvgq322560Rsi_c4YTvNVSxrqfGNrfBTvdOCd61S-HSGvnAExQ93EWWZpYCP9Gt4RSVyM1-2oSLLQ/s400/0709-mlm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413438240585714" /></a><br />On the bullish side, I mentioned SCHN <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/04/i-for-one-welcome-our-new-bull.html">back on April 14th</a> when the stock was $46. It has had a strong run since then, with a particularly strong surge upward today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5zsvsogaQh1qDqos7GxYVggGGKtAE6tVA1-tV-EFJK9z_kG3jL2bRoB4c7bZLPCxkhKOMMwO9JFGhrnMv8mdkG9jXdkGxDlZiJuZ2vLvEei4a_dkMe4mXn8T7hktQ_ll82yS0pQ/s1600-h/0709-schn.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5zsvsogaQh1qDqos7GxYVggGGKtAE6tVA1-tV-EFJK9z_kG3jL2bRoB4c7bZLPCxkhKOMMwO9JFGhrnMv8mdkG9jXdkGxDlZiJuZ2vLvEei4a_dkMe4mXn8T7hktQ_ll82yS0pQ/s400/0709-schn.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413438240585730" /></a><br />Another old favorite, Taser (TASR) seems to have found its second life. It has run up a bit much for me to be interested now, but a pullback to its breakout would make this an interesting buy.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikcpa_-SllO_dvfiwLAGq8BjsPCc4sA6vNdYipoi7f2O9vYez-rWmcFFWKUfYMeBsjxC2cxqCYfUFG39P8V6X1GW0KCK6xzNAHm5P8cmvx_d6Gr16xCsbf6kWGNgm3LCrJnVAVig/s1600-h/0709-tasr.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikcpa_-SllO_dvfiwLAGq8BjsPCc4sA6vNdYipoi7f2O9vYez-rWmcFFWKUfYMeBsjxC2cxqCYfUFG39P8V6X1GW0KCK6xzNAHm5P8cmvx_d6Gr16xCsbf6kWGNgm3LCrJnVAVig/s400/0709-tasr.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5085413446830520338" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-70879629050700796682007-07-06T21:28:00.000-07:002007-07-07T08:07:56.339-07:00Prophet NorthUp, then down. Up, then down. In spite of my optimism last Friday, I'm feeling that dealing with the markets these days is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sisyphus">Sisyphean</a> task. We've been range-bound for many weeks, and it looks like we're at the top of that range again. Here's the Russell 2000 on an intraday basis.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDYpf0kuTBGS5kjT5k5acMW_Dt2fpzLaySwPHfzPI_7lAcAE4TbnWanFzfm3riTU88m8YDd_8XvuKrsJ285ymj1bELicKmTilhWwePgsXc7xbJWY3rKjlML8d4Yk8F9Zx_qDYRPA/s1600-h/0707-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDYpf0kuTBGS5kjT5k5acMW_Dt2fpzLaySwPHfzPI_7lAcAE4TbnWanFzfm3riTU88m8YDd_8XvuKrsJ285ymj1bELicKmTilhWwePgsXc7xbJWY3rKjlML8d4Yk8F9Zx_qDYRPA/s400/0707-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377638157678498" /></a><br />Of course the big question......and it only gets bigger every time we find ourselves at the extreme of a range.....is "break or bounce?" As with anything else in the world of charts, the longer a time period that price action is range-bound, the more dramatic the "escape" from that range.<br /><br />So whereas I was optimistic before when we were near the bottom of the range (emotion check: greed), now I'm concerned we could bounce above this range and get back into full-blown bull mode (emotion check: fear). It's pretty clear that this week will give us the bounce-or-break answer. Here's the S&P 500 on a daily basis, and you can see the consolidation period over the past five weeks or so:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhdE6u5lmQXdqdIxoOJQKEy4EgxWSSEwdQgt6s8UhBGSpxX7PknMq6Cf5GmHnA-F1DA_PkPi3M_QXMUgDUoz0gSEudAvu_hLnyCjN3lXquZoK5NSxreAFiojre1gpzxw42QJ9RhA/s1600-h/0707-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhdE6u5lmQXdqdIxoOJQKEy4EgxWSSEwdQgt6s8UhBGSpxX7PknMq6Cf5GmHnA-F1DA_PkPi3M_QXMUgDUoz0gSEudAvu_hLnyCjN3lXquZoK5NSxreAFiojre1gpzxw42QJ9RhA/s400/0707-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377646747613106" /></a><br />On an intraday basis, this range is very clear to see. Although prices typically take longer to climb than the fall, it seems that within this range, the motion is happening with similar speed. It only took a week from me to change my attitude from "oh, yeah!" to "awww, crap."<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMF6HTO4XyjM20mzzNk4XQqItWS9CI8Reeqs9_mJbrgCI-3qkjw4YBiMY2s3GlwlDMJgibIRhNYOM4qM1tlZgyE6wedVmkoKPzGGR_IDvdYE_hW4zQ_l84V4fQEmOzuMuelf5U5g/s1600-h/0707-$spxintra.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMF6HTO4XyjM20mzzNk4XQqItWS9CI8Reeqs9_mJbrgCI-3qkjw4YBiMY2s3GlwlDMJgibIRhNYOM4qM1tlZgyE6wedVmkoKPzGGR_IDvdYE_hW4zQ_l84V4fQEmOzuMuelf5U5g/s400/0707-$spxintra.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377646747613122" /></a><br />I haven't been following gold too closely, but wow, the $XAU chart is really in motion now. It is still in the range shown here, but Friday was a big day for the gold bulls.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsRwuFwi3ccVKbSlfUegXhyE4pDjCtwRrwN6ueHhy55MZJhik3M0zaxMgw8C83Ba98urchSFWBVZeuSRIck4iaKTEnqTBXV0aP9jCP9T9bJR2zhkzlu7yiyHVpUqZZa2j_Z-3RrQ/s1600-h/0707-$xau.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsRwuFwi3ccVKbSlfUegXhyE4pDjCtwRrwN6ueHhy55MZJhik3M0zaxMgw8C83Ba98urchSFWBVZeuSRIck4iaKTEnqTBXV0aP9jCP9T9bJR2zhkzlu7yiyHVpUqZZa2j_Z-3RrQ/s400/0707-$xau.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377449179117394" /></a><br />Akamai is in an interesting breakdown pattern, albeit at an angle. Worth watching.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpokPJfu8u8Kptgy9zuje4etFuTs3hc3QhxA6eNhWCQjWLXzHbqSbUuhnL6owwWjQ0nmICN8QzvchcMc_O7IF-QhN_Dr7x0BwErj-EZ9QeufBW2i0YvdRPSMYn7Nk_tUyR1pbAgA/s1600-h/0707-akam.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpokPJfu8u8Kptgy9zuje4etFuTs3hc3QhxA6eNhWCQjWLXzHbqSbUuhnL6owwWjQ0nmICN8QzvchcMc_O7IF-QhN_Dr7x0BwErj-EZ9QeufBW2i0YvdRPSMYn7Nk_tUyR1pbAgA/s400/0707-akam.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377453474084706" /></a><br />Chicago Mercantile (CME) is a good example of why it's important to wait for patterns to complete (I am guilty of ignoring this rule on occasion). As you can see, it was in a tremendously toppy pattern, but then it skittered away from the breakdown point and has done sensationally well since to the upside.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPJHx8asSnMMOl1HHIfsocsWgwoqC_g4YU5efwPzDvi8cf9d-rZ1WFQoMGpPvk44PdJRuKhQPLo3RgSNrzkq3xLMcXe0MyjhxRD5ec4amPnV5-oC3aRFEQDi5DO3JRj7v9cKGB1w/s1600-h/0707-cme.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPJHx8asSnMMOl1HHIfsocsWgwoqC_g4YU5efwPzDvi8cf9d-rZ1WFQoMGpPvk44PdJRuKhQPLo3RgSNrzkq3xLMcXe0MyjhxRD5ec4amPnV5-oC3aRFEQDi5DO3JRj7v9cKGB1w/s400/0707-cme.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377457769052018" /></a><br />If you do believe the market is ready to head south again, a short position on the DIA or puts on it are a pretty good bet, since both the stock and the options are so liquid.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghbFvwL8XUqHU79NexienLN6AIWSle4eNNm30DHSiqQdRP8hAPN1i6lqcay2-jsMXm_OgQaj6HiC7PR5ZnoHmDLhL8A0BLVfW-YIlmXriHYxwWLCdT1q9khekXV58Umh1PzGUsvw/s1600-h/0707-dia.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghbFvwL8XUqHU79NexienLN6AIWSle4eNNm30DHSiqQdRP8hAPN1i6lqcay2-jsMXm_OgQaj6HiC7PR5ZnoHmDLhL8A0BLVfW-YIlmXriHYxwWLCdT1q9khekXV58Umh1PzGUsvw/s400/0707-dia.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377457769052034" /></a><br />Micron (MU) is a stock I've mentioned as a bullish idea for the past couple of weeks. It looks better than ever. Just look at Friday's push upward.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZWmlGhmAL9mSvqMdnVpOXje-uM1oczIoqDehp2Z0FBFuTVWWhjrLDeLqqZpdnaAHWsBuLXrG75FG22OR59R7xQ8kV8cVunonAXxwKkuc4oUkOYHe5k37hrukZILdBFPVsk5zM_w/s1600-h/0707-mu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZWmlGhmAL9mSvqMdnVpOXje-uM1oczIoqDehp2Z0FBFuTVWWhjrLDeLqqZpdnaAHWsBuLXrG75FG22OR59R7xQ8kV8cVunonAXxwKkuc4oUkOYHe5k37hrukZILdBFPVsk5zM_w/s400/0707-mu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5084377462064019346" /></a><br />I'm sorry this post was late; as I mentioned, I was heading to Lake Tahoe and that took a big bite out of my day. Enjoy your weekend, and I'll see you Monday evening.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com65tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47240273491333264982007-07-05T13:41:00.000-07:002007-07-05T15:41:28.546-07:00The Voice of OptimismEveryone knows the old saying: "If you Can't Beat 'em, Join 'em". So I submit myself to the <span style="font-style:italic;">New Normal</span>. I embrace that Things <span style="font-style:italic;">Are </span>Different This Time. I surrender my soul to the wisdom of the bulls. Let us gather hands around the truth together.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRNv8WxnxcqWyeqWZ1-XMqfcXLiCXUbr6TTp3LwBCn8AeanizMlO94ZyYLnu_h3_FUbuPs2CDA-vEbzca2fu0acn6P1_TG6RzjmTm3QQ2yQzmLZecD6oiUbftFerD9-1Lqt3tfw/s1600-h/0706-detector.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSRNv8WxnxcqWyeqWZ1-XMqfcXLiCXUbr6TTp3LwBCn8AeanizMlO94ZyYLnu_h3_FUbuPs2CDA-vEbzca2fu0acn6P1_TG6RzjmTm3QQ2yQzmLZecD6oiUbftFerD9-1Lqt3tfw/s400/0706-detector.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083818089818355458" /></a><br />Corporate debt is a positive. First, because interest rates are so low, it represents virtually free money for private equity firms to maximize value to shareholders through buyout transactions. Those making access to this debt are trained professionals and are managing the debt load - and its risks - responsibly.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAT3Oa1gY_hEjiBgT_f3RDUUxOvF6xNZYnTz9-fQN7__KMGF8MDMHvpsG3PQxZdA96zIjVgcVawjACH8pae5tBHak5NgyaZQhQm_C3hW-OZSvJPtBvG5FR8uLpVWwo4mVyMKG_6A/s1600-h/0706-debt.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAT3Oa1gY_hEjiBgT_f3RDUUxOvF6xNZYnTz9-fQN7__KMGF8MDMHvpsG3PQxZdA96zIjVgcVawjACH8pae5tBHak5NgyaZQhQm_C3hW-OZSvJPtBvG5FR8uLpVWwo4mVyMKG_6A/s400/0706-debt.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083818089818355474" /></a><br />The booming Chinese economy is putting some strain on the environment, yes, but the Chinese have learned from the lessons learned in the British and American industrial revolutions and have taken the steps necessary to protect their environment for the sake of those that consume their products, for the sake of the economy in the long term, and for the sake of future generations.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7NVPcjFXStcntqfPcpFjFHDSi-yneisApJwer19o-iKj3Wp3z6glnTK732VM_jk1wQjzUtsY5Em8hxycJLc3org4vEX39xzBqQvtkZnUZlzH9rO4lkUc9nXsDE7ZP6K0l8b23yQ/s1600-h/0706-china.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7NVPcjFXStcntqfPcpFjFHDSi-yneisApJwer19o-iKj3Wp3z6glnTK732VM_jk1wQjzUtsY5Em8hxycJLc3org4vEX39xzBqQvtkZnUZlzH9rO4lkUc9nXsDE7ZP6K0l8b23yQ/s400/0706-china.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083818094113322786" /></a><br />The manic building in Dubai, Shanghai, and other emerging economies is exhilarating, and the race to see who can wind up with the world's tallest building just adds to the fun. The building boom is not overdone. On the contrary, Dubai - - until recently, a sweltering, barren desert - will become the top tourist attraction on the planet. The strength of the oil economy will allow this entire region to blossom for decades to come as the new epicenter of global capitalism and prosperity.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihENIIQJDJ5aQFq8sUxiGeKAA_QyaPwl13jFyXSHegoMdMEm3qpAOJG6UQ3f37hdrY5f-wImUW_2SXkVtOQ6UkEXGZ23NycEsUxY80WwsMddC0yhlb4FLF2QULy-AGVNgrvgqanQ/s1600-h/0706-dubai.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihENIIQJDJ5aQFq8sUxiGeKAA_QyaPwl13jFyXSHegoMdMEm3qpAOJG6UQ3f37hdrY5f-wImUW_2SXkVtOQ6UkEXGZ23NycEsUxY80WwsMddC0yhlb4FLF2QULy-AGVNgrvgqanQ/s400/0706-dubai.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083818094113322802" /></a><br />The housing "bust" is completely overblown. Yes, there are some isolated instances of damage from the sub-prime lending debacle, but it is completely contained. Although the red-hot pace of housing gains from years past will rest steady for a while, there is in fact no housing "bust", and thus no aftereffects to the economy at large.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJ7zY-gnjkFo7LjzKPRRnBoNEO2CyA4PJI5PYQh1MsskzwvZrX7eLYlAk7aCddjh18ZjBhCZOiRqsodK4nZ4RF8SLLscIkynswHfV17Tq1nuzGRHlgVAG3DibXc1YPf1Um-oOTw/s1600-h/0706-housing.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJ7zY-gnjkFo7LjzKPRRnBoNEO2CyA4PJI5PYQh1MsskzwvZrX7eLYlAk7aCddjh18ZjBhCZOiRqsodK4nZ4RF8SLLscIkynswHfV17Tq1nuzGRHlgVAG3DibXc1YPf1Um-oOTw/s400/0706-housing.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083818094113322818" /></a><br />The fact that the savings rate has dropped into negative territory is simply illustrative of strong consumer spending. We live in an age of rapid change, and adapting and embracing that change takes money. Here in the United States, we are simply helping lead the way by taking part in an exciting new time of electronic and communications wizardry.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQvNbsdSdO1154mTMj7adcAIgGzmWTFyo87OXgGvfah73l58eNyLdVZPSJSx_rRy7cDLQv-5WXeKq88wF3Z-Nq-BrlABI2nL_f7A8s6fVgqBADs2VhXdW_9TMb0PICHIaN8Rayqg/s1600-h/0706-savingsrate.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQvNbsdSdO1154mTMj7adcAIgGzmWTFyo87OXgGvfah73l58eNyLdVZPSJSx_rRy7cDLQv-5WXeKq88wF3Z-Nq-BrlABI2nL_f7A8s6fVgqBADs2VhXdW_9TMb0PICHIaN8Rayqg/s400/0706-savingsrate.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083817797760579250" /></a><br />The U.S. equity markets are not overpriced. Indeed, as the private equity buyouts of late illustrate, stocks in the U.S. are <span style="font-style:italic;">under</span>valued.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUhrI-qdNXgBXc7QdOk4VzGy1H9LtKl33ALdM6D-2pSYWteql3jn_8rF6rQpdwRDLKDjjg8fYW2furB4L0FI89EyVniqy8f1XBH4V7aMFf-PyMt6eqMcTKF76Dfk4srZGUrS-YNw/s1600-h/0706-indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUhrI-qdNXgBXc7QdOk4VzGy1H9LtKl33ALdM6D-2pSYWteql3jn_8rF6rQpdwRDLKDjjg8fYW2furB4L0FI89EyVniqy8f1XBH4V7aMFf-PyMt6eqMcTKF76Dfk4srZGUrS-YNw/s400/0706-indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083817802055546562" /></a><br />By the same token, the Chinese stock market offers a store of value that will only continue to rise. A value of 8,000 on the Shanghai index seems almost a foregone conclusion, particularly since the number "8" is widely considered to be lucky in China.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxrlg8SvDsHhg918i0oMBi3PV50eRQX8yYq2SX-TH3bRjm5p6zimyiUyA1qjAVa7S-iRDZP2GSrWar3etFpxDEGSS0uhCnnNOWSe07pZ-4sE_cHHI-WNW8ReVfda1aogE4oXSZcA/s1600-h/0706-shanghai.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxrlg8SvDsHhg918i0oMBi3PV50eRQX8yYq2SX-TH3bRjm5p6zimyiUyA1qjAVa7S-iRDZP2GSrWar3etFpxDEGSS0uhCnnNOWSe07pZ-4sE_cHHI-WNW8ReVfda1aogE4oXSZcA/s400/0706-shanghai.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083817802055546578" /></a><br />Some many say that the tremendous push of wealth to the highest echelons of society will create social unrest and turmoil. "Some" are wrong. There are about <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_billionaires_%282007%29">1,000 billionaires</a> in the world today (up from zero in 1915), controlling nearly $3 trillion in wealth. The couple of billion people in the world that live in poverty will view these billionaires as inspirational.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8qgP0rwtoDzDTRu-aCL8xUVxGuF2x6My2M7Uay_nQl78dOZvhBOO6KdZvBwoLdd90vpEXqo4xyqyPwAZkj7TreVZL1AVX1M2EYyF0g5G0tiMIjp9hLvxqLL-9rH2JCUB12KQ7eg/s1600-h/0706-wealthdist.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8qgP0rwtoDzDTRu-aCL8xUVxGuF2x6My2M7Uay_nQl78dOZvhBOO6KdZvBwoLdd90vpEXqo4xyqyPwAZkj7TreVZL1AVX1M2EYyF0g5G0tiMIjp9hLvxqLL-9rH2JCUB12KQ7eg/s400/0706-wealthdist.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083817806350513906" /></a><br />There's plenty more good news in the world. The Blackstone IPO was not an opportunistic event meant to exploit the naivete of investors buying at the top of a market. It was simply a means by which the principals in the organization could tap into some of the value they had built while at the same time providing a means for the common man to participate in this exciting new investment vehicle.<br /><br />The entire "terrorism" issue is completely overblown. Once the war in Iraq withers away to a close, terrorism will be a smattering of unrelated incidents that no longer affect the Homeland.<br /><br />We have outgrown inflation, and it has about as much chance of returning as the fads of the 1970s that accompanied it. Food and energy are notoriously volatile components, so if we strip away the ability to feed and transport ourselves, the <a href="http://www.comerica.com/Comerica_Content/Corporate_Communications/Docs/200605_National_Economic_Brief.pdf">core inflation</a> numbers are comforting.<br /><br />Next year, when a Democrat is virtually guaranteed to win the Presidency, the combination of a left-leaning Congress <span style="font-weight:bold;">and </span>President will be just the kind of "one-two punch" the economy needs to really kick into high gear. Taxes will be reduced or at least be kept low. And the entirely Democrat federal government will provide business all the assistance it requires to continue to thrive.<br /><br />And, just to put a cherry on top of the whole thing, watch this:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/pCWw6W5NEa8"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/pCWw6W5NEa8" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><br />I am now cleansed. And I no longer have to bother with this bearish claptrap. I've had enough.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com46tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-41095456206160891092007-07-03T10:14:00.000-07:002007-07-03T10:32:54.658-07:00The RangeOK, let me get this out of the way: I was wrong about Apple. <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/06/short-iphone-and-everything-else.html">Back on June 11th</a>, I proposed that the hype around the iPhone would be a precursor to the stock getting walloped. Well, on the first trading day after the iPhone's introduction (yesterday), the stock did indeed inch down (and on a 126 point up day on the Dow, no less).<br /><br />But it reached a new record high today. And, looking at the chart, there is no <span style="font-style:italic;">technical </span>reason for the stock to be weak. So I sold my puts at a (relatively modest) loss this morning, and shame on me for ever doubting the power of Steve Jobs, my lifelong hero. <br /><br />Phew. OK, done with the self-flagellation. Today's entry will be very short, since I imagine most of you are already wrapped up in July 4th festivities. As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like the readers of this blog were correct in suggesting very bullish behavior just prior to the Independence Day holiday.<br /><br />One thing is clear, though. Over the past five weeks, the markets have been bouncing around in a clearly-defined range, ending (temporarily, at least) the unabashed push upward preceding June.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM8jX_XqNC2g82B1nYTveembk-HYQv5xXXVrd_p8T1PbK_8U4eGdyZsWSkUgTxZwvER5ZhUcjSbCqYeBJ53YnANfAeIt_bLhMKCWsGBH2iuEBcASSBRlr0huNty-Tm4swXchucnQ/s1600-h/0703-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM8jX_XqNC2g82B1nYTveembk-HYQv5xXXVrd_p8T1PbK_8U4eGdyZsWSkUgTxZwvER5ZhUcjSbCqYeBJ53YnANfAeIt_bLhMKCWsGBH2iuEBcASSBRlr0huNty-Tm4swXchucnQ/s400/0703-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083023288940361218" /></a><br />Zooming in a bit on the Russell 2000, the range has actually had two stages, demarcated here with two different colors of highlight. The most recent range is more volatile, yet it has a higher base.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiyPYeH6m_l8ephqoLHrnOzYkzZ-liLHV2RTSNOXZYgdrhWZ0rjf1UJc5cw5D5u-SCC3IrOnjDzaCOHy16nW_MyQVe1KcRLaM6qMoNxBjiZuVvFnM1D81cE6E96jDVQUPrCf4ltg/s1600-h/0703-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiyPYeH6m_l8ephqoLHrnOzYkzZ-liLHV2RTSNOXZYgdrhWZ0rjf1UJc5cw5D5u-SCC3IrOnjDzaCOHy16nW_MyQVe1KcRLaM6qMoNxBjiZuVvFnM1D81cE6E96jDVQUPrCf4ltg/s400/0703-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083023293235328530" /></a><br />This becomes even more obvious when you look at the $VIX. The range between highs and lows on the $VIX has exploded higher since June 1st. It makes for some extremely jumpy trading, since bulls and bears are struggling more than ever for control.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-DnJZh4xuG5q6nOtJB5aAcs8Mwju1IopxJLDS39eSx8PdL6Eg_vPwrXnxOEBgKkXqveE4Iguoa83304kzzxUZVT16wrfFYXg9Oc0rgWs8GxdQ1eHVIY_f7_9-ZjnVbhQUxJItg/s1600-h/0703-$vix.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR-DnJZh4xuG5q6nOtJB5aAcs8Mwju1IopxJLDS39eSx8PdL6Eg_vPwrXnxOEBgKkXqveE4Iguoa83304kzzxUZVT16wrfFYXg9Oc0rgWs8GxdQ1eHVIY_f7_9-ZjnVbhQUxJItg/s400/0703-$vix.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5083023297530295842" /></a><br />As for my broad view of the market.......it's pretty simple. I chalk up July 2 and 3 to the aforementioned Independence Day strength. I would expect to see some meaningful weakness for the balance of the week. If that doesn't take place - - and certainly if we push above the range that I've illustrated - - it looks like the bulls will take back the control which they set aside as of June 1st.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com45tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-26391861081034135532007-07-02T13:11:00.000-07:002007-07-02T14:22:01.224-07:00The 7/4 PushA number of readers have been remarking how strong the market is prior to the July 4 holiday, and how bears should sell into this strength as opposed to shorting too early (like last week). If today is an indication, it seems that was good advice. The market was strong across the board, with the Dow posting a better than 125 point gain.<br /><br />My index-puts-of-choice are for the Russell 2000. I've got a pretty big put position on this index. As long as the series of lower highs and lower lows stays intact, I'm fine with this.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwXNEI8sdBhnu_-0TqjAk2vPh9kkP5X94-yGJhnL2DSgTnyh6oZzmb_9zqpVN0KgJrY8Xsj97afbBfK4Z_mZPnuy8zHc0iq8R9drgATS7tjrShJlP62_9Fh7FZBE5IgCjJkwUJcA/s1600-h/0702-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwXNEI8sdBhnu_-0TqjAk2vPh9kkP5X94-yGJhnL2DSgTnyh6oZzmb_9zqpVN0KgJrY8Xsj97afbBfK4Z_mZPnuy8zHc0iq8R9drgATS7tjrShJlP62_9Fh7FZBE5IgCjJkwUJcA/s400/0702-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082712797164598770" /></a><br />Remember, tomorrow is an abbreviated trading session (the equities market closes at 1:00 EST, three hours earlier than normal), so it's bound to be a quiet, low-volume today. I would think most of the pre-July 4 fireworks got taken care of today, but there might be another little push upward. The S&P 500 is also in a "lower highs" pattern, and it needs to remain so in order for the short-term bearish picture to remain decent.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGQfVb19QmnL36rfouTMs9ZW-wCbpBrAx8Cr9OEfqzwr0MXLnI9C9c0tZe3g2_4lQAW_0rxI2kyFOJWcgULaQw35OVix8saO-M_WFyQ4fC5BABIm_zj6GMIRn2YOMFK-Eh77GOuQ/s1600-h/0702-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGQfVb19QmnL36rfouTMs9ZW-wCbpBrAx8Cr9OEfqzwr0MXLnI9C9c0tZe3g2_4lQAW_0rxI2kyFOJWcgULaQw35OVix8saO-M_WFyQ4fC5BABIm_zj6GMIRn2YOMFK-Eh77GOuQ/s400/0702-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082709545874355618" /></a><br />One nice Dow stock for puts is Alcoa (symbol AA) which looks to be in the latter stages of a head and shoulders formation.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjvGoOzeKHYLmbxz0cckYVks2QHXcKMt0Dt_8QIBHwbmci4rmTVt0grkRVetx5wohL-iQ8Yzd2_HmD78AiixUuiFizePaosQUcbyiQqVdjhAMZfWZqF0zxFrDIBYmzk9azJIfG0g/s1600-h/0702-aa.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjvGoOzeKHYLmbxz0cckYVks2QHXcKMt0Dt_8QIBHwbmci4rmTVt0grkRVetx5wohL-iQ8Yzd2_HmD78AiixUuiFizePaosQUcbyiQqVdjhAMZfWZqF0zxFrDIBYmzk9azJIfG0g/s400/0702-aa.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082709545874355634" /></a><br />For big believers in the continuing ascension of energy prices, APA looks like a good bullish play. This is a really nice saucer breakout.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhreHMO7orAc9v4GuEPr4VP-jG197uZNcZzV_58QKNDsjWVfF2l2nRCB56KlvAzuczquLAzCgTGPMjoMZfjS6deRzOa3g7oNONPtiZS5BmP32dmRpwbaqTlOiN0kcqVW5phz6Ftkg/s1600-h/0702-apa.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhreHMO7orAc9v4GuEPr4VP-jG197uZNcZzV_58QKNDsjWVfF2l2nRCB56KlvAzuczquLAzCgTGPMjoMZfjS6deRzOa3g7oNONPtiZS5BmP32dmRpwbaqTlOiN0kcqVW5phz6Ftkg/s400/0702-apa.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082709550169322946" /></a><br />PSB is a short I closed a little while ago with a nice profit, but I re-entered it today, since it seems to have finished with its retracement.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoIxsxU23IQO48jzjJ2NtjUe8dATmXKufzT0tX-_w38Wwg59I5Bx20UhAUnbk3PG1YylDrj1bZl4JMYGwrAO18pZtlGOM4AXgi61koJlietpIRS2xX20MKVd_eoUaMfuJjIQX3ug/s1600-h/0702-psb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoIxsxU23IQO48jzjJ2NtjUe8dATmXKufzT0tX-_w38Wwg59I5Bx20UhAUnbk3PG1YylDrj1bZl4JMYGwrAO18pZtlGOM4AXgi61koJlietpIRS2xX20MKVd_eoUaMfuJjIQX3ug/s400/0702-psb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082709550169322962" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com36tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-19880276632922222062007-07-01T20:44:00.000-07:002007-07-02T07:46:44.585-07:00The Lonesome Tale of Burrell SmithThis will be my last "introduction of the iPhone" post. Promise.<br /><br />I have been mixed up with computers since 1979 and have religiously followed the characters of the Silicon Valley since 1982. I know the history of Apple particularly well, especially around the creation of the Macintosh. Thus, I've become acquainted with the stories of the players in that story.<br /><br />Let me introduce you to three players in particular, numbered below. 1 is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Hertzfeld">Andy Hertzfeld</a>, one of the software geniuses on the original team (He works at Google now). 2 is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Atkinson">Bill Atkinson</a>, another of the software geniuses (he invented Hypercard, created the original MacPaint program, started General Magic, and is now an acclaimed photographer). And 3 is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burrell_Smith">Burrell Smith</a>, considered the hardware genius behind the product.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipf26GV_zHUdyTW9U4PPENWzUPH6PXSzNpJHfT5Ojckr54giyd7jyv2E4VldelmGezvQE-cIYI9w6uURlrWEGLuB6rXhbG4ywYetLd-GaTpd_xQheQwaXKX8Vwx4lIlfnVrG27lA/s1600-h/0701-macteam.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipf26GV_zHUdyTW9U4PPENWzUPH6PXSzNpJHfT5Ojckr54giyd7jyv2E4VldelmGezvQE-cIYI9w6uURlrWEGLuB6rXhbG4ywYetLd-GaTpd_xQheQwaXKX8Vwx4lIlfnVrG27lA/s400/0701-macteam.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082455206501021058" /></a><br />Here's another photo of them, taken on the day the Macintosh was unveiled. You can see how exuberant they look. Notice another circled face, that of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgcIE3y9Z33ke0lXowz0ueQoBHjQOHUPPvDBxlc4AFuMBTGIlIJyNTOZMXZ_IRSrkRJ_S_33pxqEG44FKvWutn94-8SELKoFkn_LrxtAfZ9rUKXEDGtBj_VL5oG1jfyHOuXDtknA/s1600-h/0701-macintro.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgcIE3y9Z33ke0lXowz0ueQoBHjQOHUPPvDBxlc4AFuMBTGIlIJyNTOZMXZ_IRSrkRJ_S_33pxqEG44FKvWutn94-8SELKoFkn_LrxtAfZ9rUKXEDGtBj_VL5oG1jfyHOuXDtknA/s400/0701-macintro.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082455202206053746" /></a><br />Nearly a quarter of a century has passed since those photos were taken (incredibly...) So fast-forward to the present.....well, last Friday, when I was hanging around the Palo Alto Apple store. And look who wanders in......none other than Steve Jobs!<br /><br />Now, you've got to recognize what a big deal this is. It's iPhone day. And this store is the epicenter of techies and geek-freaks. And Steve Jobs shows up. It would be like having a unveiling of a major new edition of the Bible and God beams down for a visit. You can imagine the reaction. So in this clip you see him checking out the store and deciding to go back across the street to grab his wife and bring her in too.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wZH763OI1Mo"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wZH763OI1Mo" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><br />And once they are in the store, Jobs immediately sees the aforementioned Andy Hertzfeld (who, 30 seconds into the clip, you can hear saying "Bill stayed here all night", referring to Atkinson) and, at 1:00 into the clip, you can see Jobs amble over to Atkinson to chat with him a while. So it's like a micro-reunion.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/gh0VNUwhSLM"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gh0VNUwhSLM" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><br />So where was Burrell? That, to me, is kind of the sad part.<br /><br />My understanding is that after the Macintosh-crazed 80s, he ran into some issues. Suffice it to say that I see him on the street at least a couple of times a month. He has a very long beard, partly grey. He walks at a quick pace, but looking at the sidewalk the entire time. And, to a random stranger, he might even look like a homeless guy (although I'm pretty sure he's living comfortably and likes to make regular jaunts to Whole Foods to get out and about).<br /><br />What's striking to me is that most people would really assume he's just another homeless guy, without realizing what a major figure this person was in computers - and the Mac in particular - today. And his absence from all the excitement in the video above just reminded me of the juxtaposition. Because as the accidental reunion was taking place, their missing member was probably alone, walking to the grocery store, stare affixed to the sidewalk, destined to pick up another quart of milk.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-268302086608274572007-06-29T15:38:00.000-07:002007-06-29T19:55:42.510-07:00Are the Bulls Losing Their Grip?Dedicated bulls should worry about this: the market is starting to make sense to me. Last week was a really good week. This week was a really good week.<br /><br />Now, if we were at the tail end of a two-year long bear market, it would be easy to shrug this off. <span style="font-style:italic;">"Oh, yeah, Tim the permabear has been doing well because everything has been falling non-stop."</span> But you know that's not the case. The Dow was at its highest level in human history earlier this month, and it still has over 98% of that value. So I've been able to score big profits trading virtually entirely bearish positions in a market which has been in anything but a free-fall.<br /><br />So it's making sense. Leading up to this month, I was starting to lose my mind with how nonsensical, bizarre, and random the market seemed to be. It would be like living in a town where cars stop at green lights 80% of the time, pedestrians occasionally walked along the middle of the highway, and baby carriages were parked on the roofs of buildings. After a while, you start to lose your mind in that kind of environment and question your own sanity.<br /><br />But the town I live in suddenly makes sense. People stop at red lights and go on green. Baby carriages are safe. And pedestrians remain on the sidewalks. And the market goes up when I think it's going to go up. And it goes down when I think it's going to go down. It's a nice change. Let's keep those buggies off the roofs for a while, shall we?<br /><br />If you read <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/06/jesusphone-arrives.html">my post from earlier today</a>, you know I spent a little time this morning at the Palo Alto Apple store watching the crowds line up for the <strike>JesusPhone</strike> iPhone. If you didn't see the post earlier, check it out. It's got a cool little video I made.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsLbLUmjM_TVXT4JJipzNzrzaXqadLL6ldXyUn6vqpjBONiryVpZFBxDjjg8k5fFEXYXFdnLjdPPG8b8hLXk0s9OwlqUL_pjvVmfCFQGtDsxrfbnUAnHtO2pkxr3T1qziyQvN18Q/s1600-h/0629-$jesusphone.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsLbLUmjM_TVXT4JJipzNzrzaXqadLL6ldXyUn6vqpjBONiryVpZFBxDjjg8k5fFEXYXFdnLjdPPG8b8hLXk0s9OwlqUL_pjvVmfCFQGtDsxrfbnUAnHtO2pkxr3T1qziyQvN18Q/s400/0629-$jesusphone.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081633501947884850" /></a><br />I'm trading the Russell 2000 options actively, both intraday and on swing trades. A tight stop on the <span style="font-weight:bold;">IWM </span>ETF is at 84.19 right now, which was the high for both Thursday and Friday.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitN1zSlRsTQVRi6bvvPTKF6D-OdD5jdKKPVY4cAlaIy-BB3id4qBMgO9hp7jPglEYZF3HZ0zCX6yiDURZieIhnMguaYqJapZeIdP-7WOprqes2RjJd-a4ZwHPj3CM_4_jsqZuCeQ/s1600-h/0629-$iwm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitN1zSlRsTQVRi6bvvPTKF6D-OdD5jdKKPVY4cAlaIy-BB3id4qBMgO9hp7jPglEYZF3HZ0zCX6yiDURZieIhnMguaYqJapZeIdP-7WOprqes2RjJd-a4ZwHPj3CM_4_jsqZuCeQ/s400/0629-$iwm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081633501947884866" /></a><br />There's really no good instrument for trading the MidCap 400 <span style="font-weight:bold;">($MID</span>), but it's a fascinating graph to me. The markets seem to be revving up to be in swoon mode.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJkeczXp-0CrXfXYdfuzDQIair0WDdrCre5MKzOxb93RtNn7fH-b9_vuzFm1QwFPANa0G7xJthl-S9eKsVHGBWTn110l-4jNr1O7S0QQBy3wWzS7ZcyiBiFcCQXE5GeT9x27a1yA/s1600-h/0629-$mid.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJkeczXp-0CrXfXYdfuzDQIair0WDdrCre5MKzOxb93RtNn7fH-b9_vuzFm1QwFPANa0G7xJthl-S9eKsVHGBWTn110l-4jNr1O7S0QQBy3wWzS7ZcyiBiFcCQXE5GeT9x27a1yA/s400/0629-$mid.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081630078858949858" /></a><br />I haven't traded the NASDAQ (either index or hardly any stocks) for a while. It's been relatively defiant of the recent weakness in the market. But I have a feeling this group is going to start joining the downdraft party.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxiKTasZvKyF4bnz3YsjFKuKmzQAT6GUh0kYTUeqfVFsVBgYl32MDWD6U8KkWkObiwyJS9OYDsnmWr7yS4STTTmTaI15qDKqn3d1V6fJDv4_cqMKOzyvYcSdtcdeYsPT_OdHP6fA/s1600-h/0629-$ndx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxiKTasZvKyF4bnz3YsjFKuKmzQAT6GUh0kYTUeqfVFsVBgYl32MDWD6U8KkWkObiwyJS9OYDsnmWr7yS4STTTmTaI15qDKqn3d1V6fJDv4_cqMKOzyvYcSdtcdeYsPT_OdHP6fA/s400/0629-$ndx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081630096038819058" /></a><br />Side note, now that I mention NASDAQ - congratulations to RIMM owners, particularly call owners. I see some of the calls were up literally quadruple-digit percent levels today!)<br /><br />Oil services are looking terrific for shorts/puts. <span style="font-weight:bold;">HES </span>is particularly well-formed and liquid.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPddlgH4mzyMfDWRp2zdGklEj4Yk5HOrctHoKvl8-OogJDHLQ3FEYVi_B8z7W1_qGXYlHp4mRVTHcvmjHNWLhqVks4GxDXin9RPVibPjsiXlDwgD-PJmZZPT49wZCG7T3IZ94PPg/s1600-h/0629-hes.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPddlgH4mzyMfDWRp2zdGklEj4Yk5HOrctHoKvl8-OogJDHLQ3FEYVi_B8z7W1_qGXYlHp4mRVTHcvmjHNWLhqVks4GxDXin9RPVibPjsiXlDwgD-PJmZZPT49wZCG7T3IZ94PPg/s400/0629-hes.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081630113218688258" /></a><br />McKesson (<span style="font-weight:bold;">MCK</span>) is another beautiful stock. One of the best examples of exploiting Fibonacci fans that I've ever seen.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh06dBEwH4X6Ht8fG_Ki5buATMATaaafrYbNaUx3bPNLPb1TcpjhO4O-QRtquUt_v743lAHQwCGd8qxEfc-CkS_kjouVSCE8EVLpbldZRdUB4mgn17ZFPA-xttTU8LaQH0E8WArPA/s1600-h/0629-mck.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh06dBEwH4X6Ht8fG_Ki5buATMATaaafrYbNaUx3bPNLPb1TcpjhO4O-QRtquUt_v743lAHQwCGd8qxEfc-CkS_kjouVSCE8EVLpbldZRdUB4mgn17ZFPA-xttTU8LaQH0E8WArPA/s400/0629-mck.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081630117513655570" /></a><br />RadioShack (<span style="font-weight:bold;">RSH</span>) has been on an enormous upswing of late. (Rumor has it that AJC has joined the Battery Club multiple times to keep her bedside electronic accouterments fully-powered, thus the earnings spike). But - - just like JC Penney is JC Penney - - Radio Shack is Radio Shack. And that's all you need to know. I've got puts.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQEroTCA4ODKU8j7nIPHnK0LNH4duspix_mfNtXUwuLTgBGm7ThU6pKsN_iUrCgO1THkYDeQ1sGibtyr9XtUlk3uP2__hjnQH8ZYfXmiwEa4JxRF1Zr6TQ-NXv2jrNtbi2aa51g/s1600-h/0629-rsh.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQEroTCA4ODKU8j7nIPHnK0LNH4duspix_mfNtXUwuLTgBGm7ThU6pKsN_iUrCgO1THkYDeQ1sGibtyr9XtUlk3uP2__hjnQH8ZYfXmiwEa4JxRF1Zr6TQ-NXv2jrNtbi2aa51g/s400/0629-rsh.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081630130398557474" /></a><br />Next week should be relatively quiet with a big fat holiday right in the middle of it. Have a safe one (<span style="font-style:italic;">most </span>of you, at least), and I'll see you on Monday.<br /><span style="font-style:italic;"><br />Late breaking news! </span>I was there for the Big Event (the 6:00 opening of the doors at the Apple store). It was a madhouse. Police, news crews, and <span style="font-weight:bold;">hundreds </span>of people (half of which were taking pictures).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Rdb6iMa8qshUnQ7KfTQkVIDgQxztOGvHPV0QHnU514EfEjOxZX0joDpbhTdb5D_MuMQLmbLR86JdqfLirpacW4WxUFLFy-CEriP3VDf-V0cRnoGcWGqcCE5qIQsi4YYtQ_YJ-w/s1600-h/0629-$crowdwaits.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Rdb6iMa8qshUnQ7KfTQkVIDgQxztOGvHPV0QHnU514EfEjOxZX0joDpbhTdb5D_MuMQLmbLR86JdqfLirpacW4WxUFLFy-CEriP3VDf-V0cRnoGcWGqcCE5qIQsi4YYtQ_YJ-w/s400/0629-$crowdwaits.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081684869756745042" /></a><br />You know the funny part? People waiting three days to be near the front of the line. And one hour later...<span style="font-weight:bold;">.one hour</span>......I was able to just walk right in through the front door without a wait. Great use of three days (and nights), fellers. Anyway, here are my two iPhones perched on the kitchen bar:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDDSywy7UJQAqgH3Qp3zBDXyq1zDqlXF8zinXNfVXt9eFLB4_TAQ6sVzg1WBZYSRrOJk7pXmDMER1vJ46_VKSrrW2yN7s49inwBYqQTJ0D3cHO8DvZT7xwH8CAH6dJtv93_tKAuQ/s1600-h/0629-$iphones.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDDSywy7UJQAqgH3Qp3zBDXyq1zDqlXF8zinXNfVXt9eFLB4_TAQ6sVzg1WBZYSRrOJk7pXmDMER1vJ46_VKSrrW2yN7s49inwBYqQTJ0D3cHO8DvZT7xwH8CAH6dJtv93_tKAuQ/s400/0629-$iphones.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081684869756745058" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-40089211578521191682007-06-29T11:13:00.001-07:002007-06-29T11:15:19.954-07:00The JesusPhone ArrivesToday must be Steve Jobs Day, since both the <a href="http://www.apple.com/iphone/">iPhone</a> and <a href="http://disney.go.com/disneypictures/ratatouille/">Ratatouille</a> make their introductions. That can't be an accident.<br /><br />I've never done this before, but here's a Slope of Hope Original Video for you that I just put together. Enjoy:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hmjW6f9AcL4"> </param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hmjW6f9AcL4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="350"> </embed> </object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-5055230572744038522007-06-28T13:55:00.001-07:002007-06-28T14:14:13.819-07:00Once More into the BreachWell, I'm glad we got <span style="font-style:italic;">that </span>bit of business out of the way!<br /><br />The stock market did its usual spastic freak-out the moment the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2007/20070628/">Federal Reserve Statement</a> was issued. First it lurched down. And then up, big time. And then down again. And it spent the rest of the day generally heading south. It wasn't a plunge, by any stretch, but it certainly nuked a very healthy rise in equities into oblivion.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRQiMIApGfixrNrd-Hb-5HnPErAl3sdq9y8sR_r_7gGpN8DeLPxpK44Vc2PuUMU7hfN11aiY0HgFk_tFZE3MnS6KWCvRcj9q4MEKCVlhGVyGm1OZj-6YB9m-h87fIxcHgolRGYAA/s1600-h/0628-$fed.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRQiMIApGfixrNrd-Hb-5HnPErAl3sdq9y8sR_r_7gGpN8DeLPxpK44Vc2PuUMU7hfN11aiY0HgFk_tFZE3MnS6KWCvRcj9q4MEKCVlhGVyGm1OZj-6YB9m-h87fIxcHgolRGYAA/s400/0628-$fed.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222735570662610" /></a><br />Looking at the candlestick chart of the IWM (which is the ETF for the Russell 2000), you can see a picture-perfect shooting star. My feeling is that tomorrow will be a down day, and we can get back to the business of shorting this market.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGGQ0OLuMHvIJX4bHiEBslRGOBxZn9Wo41B5bHruv2lF1P5wehUbw38QRPWCYxCTnI8ipaoT26z43FrC6Q2FTXD3qqvnhA4NqHEEUOPeYI0Farnr-s8_isohCo7M4gySzc_-ijiA/s1600-h/0628-$iwm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGGQ0OLuMHvIJX4bHiEBslRGOBxZn9Wo41B5bHruv2lF1P5wehUbw38QRPWCYxCTnI8ipaoT26z43FrC6Q2FTXD3qqvnhA4NqHEEUOPeYI0Farnr-s8_isohCo7M4gySzc_-ijiA/s400/0628-$iwm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222645376349314" /></a><br />Colgate (CL) is a relatively stable/"no surprises" stock that might be worth acquiring puts against.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkKQ73sprAwrObhBGCbrN7Gm4O2Ukfu5HbUtK1W2_R8GcdmN8-vzEePPOBUGsuGUvYh5Kxq6ucWuPQRBFkXZhd4x0ulbqvb5QozGQeJQJk0Wzn6BHwOf4-s1emG8XQR4W95aC8w/s1600-h/0628-cl.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjkKQ73sprAwrObhBGCbrN7Gm4O2Ukfu5HbUtK1W2_R8GcdmN8-vzEePPOBUGsuGUvYh5Kxq6ucWuPQRBFkXZhd4x0ulbqvb5QozGQeJQJk0Wzn6BHwOf4-s1emG8XQR4W95aC8w/s400/0628-cl.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222649671316626" /></a><br />Coventry Health (CVH) appears to have failed to break out of a normally bullish pattern, which is bearish. I'm short the stock.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXop8vVl_WuevQxki-s2gSuLHwdkblO35AScrx0zyB4xyOGUsAb71gv_A62mpDbsAhYcfT4mJE2-KKIgzEfbeHj70kHrrr1xOxQBPeX0zTNzuqnH0m3kcKh38QMCMSkx6yDh0eYw/s1600-h/0628-cvh.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXop8vVl_WuevQxki-s2gSuLHwdkblO35AScrx0zyB4xyOGUsAb71gv_A62mpDbsAhYcfT4mJE2-KKIgzEfbeHj70kHrrr1xOxQBPeX0zTNzuqnH0m3kcKh38QMCMSkx6yDh0eYw/s400/0628-cvh.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222653966283938" /></a><br />I've mentioned Jet Blue (JBLU) for the bulls out there. I stand by this position. Maybe this former high-flier is getting its act together after many embarrassing fumbles.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilAsaX9MsTj2M80jO8Ly1pI-zyiIvgI3RNpyrRPjGwRvJ-yiIcV-_8zbm5B7RvXyNZ-C4qkMGiBJlhzhPxfBBMNkvvV0YuYb66ERFik6V1qcWvwuzsnlpEW5WPqPfgIWi_qYVDXw/s1600-h/0628-jblu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilAsaX9MsTj2M80jO8Ly1pI-zyiIvgI3RNpyrRPjGwRvJ-yiIcV-_8zbm5B7RvXyNZ-C4qkMGiBJlhzhPxfBBMNkvvV0YuYb66ERFik6V1qcWvwuzsnlpEW5WPqPfgIWi_qYVDXw/s400/0628-jblu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222658261251250" /></a><br />I bought puts on MCK today based on a small head and shoulders pattern plus a falling-away from a Fibonacci fan.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNkNrXW1NyZf3cW5-Qg7MqBXfr50tnu75ofVWGT5o6vlIM7mhs27YZTCqxsdLaAhinof_1EuoG8gB51fajCYiuXPMcD5i6ooQ0XJSRysBd49py7BivakpBO5kvEZsQfuagYqFug/s1600-h/0628-mck.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNkNrXW1NyZf3cW5-Qg7MqBXfr50tnu75ofVWGT5o6vlIM7mhs27YZTCqxsdLaAhinof_1EuoG8gB51fajCYiuXPMcD5i6ooQ0XJSRysBd49py7BivakpBO5kvEZsQfuagYqFug/s400/0628-mck.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222658261251266" /></a><br />Oils are looking pretty good for put/short opportunities too. I bought puts on OXY just before today's close.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0OtRtXz_8L4JuQTvYfhnLA0DpnyqIbN7MfmtycHcFgMoF4c_hTRBV9yEKgIMbzm7XzMe873VIYahA4EgR1kIfHJlxVljJ9bnMH9ow6Z_nhX7ZQOheLy0tVrcwRXU0WtdNtvR9Q/s1600-h/0628-oxy.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI0OtRtXz_8L4JuQTvYfhnLA0DpnyqIbN7MfmtycHcFgMoF4c_hTRBV9yEKgIMbzm7XzMe873VIYahA4EgR1kIfHJlxVljJ9bnMH9ow6Z_nhX7ZQOheLy0tVrcwRXU0WtdNtvR9Q/s400/0628-oxy.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222417743082546" /></a><br />Same story with Southern Copper (PCU).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjba2S35uAlWUdaf0kNqAl2ZHOgoOdvS9mn_75NZHbzSFvtHRg_klPrE1LYNtK75iIVOxXwGb-sKNZybqKNgK5uKYpdUNpTpjQ1of3zsw8uKDBmpXbHVQl4dttTXmYUd0v-XctcZQ/s1600-h/0628-pcu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjba2S35uAlWUdaf0kNqAl2ZHOgoOdvS9mn_75NZHbzSFvtHRg_klPrE1LYNtK75iIVOxXwGb-sKNZybqKNgK5uKYpdUNpTpjQ1of3zsw8uKDBmpXbHVQl4dttTXmYUd0v-XctcZQ/s400/0628-pcu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222422038049858" /></a><br />Potash puts are fairly heavily traded, thus the bid/ask spread isn't atrocious. I picked up some of these today (as with all the other trades, well after the Fed craziness).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisDUy4h5AOuOptYPseCbr43e4XK5J1Wykl6_twPDUToH1zOWIGwznGlTBLcIUBrwwODtwwF8qVTayqxGyNMgGdfFE8efLfopvObBfUA5CC3aXWvlKIrDdsC4Muh4URpd9WZZTVjA/s1600-h/0628-pot.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisDUy4h5AOuOptYPseCbr43e4XK5J1Wykl6_twPDUToH1zOWIGwznGlTBLcIUBrwwODtwwF8qVTayqxGyNMgGdfFE8efLfopvObBfUA5CC3aXWvlKIrDdsC4Muh4URpd9WZZTVjA/s400/0628-pot.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222426333017170" /></a><br />...and the same for Schlumberger (SLB).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQkuhNuSrcLS2BSvDlvVsL9jnnkwnVi2c3bApm8DLWiOQHgf3V8zsQBdSgdxU1FO1v3Yuhm22fOzl1pNZevKxEEYLmZZiURJE02A1OQMKDMAw6LTnkzieLesgO2A69TtDc0oH46Q/s1600-h/0628-slb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQkuhNuSrcLS2BSvDlvVsL9jnnkwnVi2c3bApm8DLWiOQHgf3V8zsQBdSgdxU1FO1v3Yuhm22fOzl1pNZevKxEEYLmZZiURJE02A1OQMKDMAw6LTnkzieLesgO2A69TtDc0oH46Q/s400/0628-slb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222430627984482" /></a><br />.....and Exxon (XOM).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYsPqZ9sepoHnwVUKTcfZMrqgGamLb_Xt4WjRP5zRJYbkrb_duOHWGKUC38MrM5VniCvf4knvD_iWojUyuQmGeQdGu3TYtkUEv06JcMboJH5__CM3nPWBTTpf-Qnq56k5h5KKDYQ/s1600-h/0628-xom.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYsPqZ9sepoHnwVUKTcfZMrqgGamLb_Xt4WjRP5zRJYbkrb_duOHWGKUC38MrM5VniCvf4knvD_iWojUyuQmGeQdGu3TYtkUEv06JcMboJH5__CM3nPWBTTpf-Qnq56k5h5KKDYQ/s400/0628-xom.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5081222439217919090" /></a><br />I stopped trading Research in Motion (RIMM) ages ago, since the stock is just too weird for me to understand. Congratulations to those long the stock (and, even moreso, long the calls). RIMM had oh-my-God earnings after the close today and, last time I checked, was up 12%. Poor old <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/38540">Fred Hickey</a> can't seem to live this one down.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com49tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-63811402287033472012007-06-27T13:20:00.000-07:002007-06-27T13:44:52.917-07:00Lying in WaitIf you read <a href="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/06/when-it-seems-easy-feel-queasy.html">yesterday's post</a>, today's action would have come as no surprise at all. Luckily, I sold my puts promptly shortly after the opening this morning. I wasn't slick enough to buy calls - and shame on me for not doing so - but I'm at least glad to have exited. In the meantime, here's a live Webcam of me waiting for the push upward to exhaust itself.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6DoTs0Gh-Q63R9iL9mWHyhdt6TO5KJdEbwz0-oIST_uToWuNhu0c9Q1r2mifA6QsmsIySMycit0Led2LfEVm3CLi_7h6ZVXyXB_ggzpoglDKk3TnmOGno0bFLvEm02ZSGd_quPw/s1600-h/0627-$gator.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6DoTs0Gh-Q63R9iL9mWHyhdt6TO5KJdEbwz0-oIST_uToWuNhu0c9Q1r2mifA6QsmsIySMycit0Led2LfEVm3CLi_7h6ZVXyXB_ggzpoglDKk3TnmOGno0bFLvEm02ZSGd_quPw/s400/0627-$gator.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080843232260387874" /></a><br />The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - a widely respected organization - recently <a href="http://tinyurl.com/2c8eeo">issued a report</a> citing the distinct possibility of not just a recession, but a worldwide economic depression. Here's a snippet from an article about the report:<br /><blockquote><br />The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.</blockquote><br />This isn't some weird crackpot organization (or a crackpot blog writer). This is a fairly sober group of individuals. Take note.<br /><br />The $VIX, as expected, absolutely plunged today. I'm not sure - no one is - what the market's reaction to tomorrow's forthcoming GDP report and Fed Announcement is going to be - - but it's possible that all the excess in the $VIX got squeezed out today. For myself, I think I'm going to keep most of the powder dry until well after the Fed announcement, which always throws the market into a bizarre spasm.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoHfIPvORVEb1JXdRvTbqpdZRcAd7r4dYVKLSBAz_grfzbvoEYNZ0ctTNqfkMDJtohfxCEDkXwAViQCktH3SRVsKb68tIF1lE75Zh9fkYDf9GXCXVGptERMn2vnrXAqWEhKXuXlA/s1600-h/0627-$vix.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoHfIPvORVEb1JXdRvTbqpdZRcAd7r4dYVKLSBAz_grfzbvoEYNZ0ctTNqfkMDJtohfxCEDkXwAViQCktH3SRVsKb68tIF1lE75Zh9fkYDf9GXCXVGptERMn2vnrXAqWEhKXuXlA/s400/0627-$vix.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842764108952594" /></a><br />I've tried to emphasize in the chart below the pivot points of the Russell 2000. Just to be clear, the fact that today's is circled doesn't necessarily mean I think the buying is over. But it's a help visual aid in any case.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkJTDyM19m0xCWIepIzyQ7tQOd-uVoMzUYrCaGsb_ZEbR6UZTvhLgMixPnmJQZg19zW-4oUg489CoswIgdH35XRlzuK2GUcwOw0EjFVW5gk9ZyD5j73DUnlZtu1IPjTF42mdvYpA/s1600-h/0627-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkJTDyM19m0xCWIepIzyQ7tQOd-uVoMzUYrCaGsb_ZEbR6UZTvhLgMixPnmJQZg19zW-4oUg489CoswIgdH35XRlzuK2GUcwOw0EjFVW5gk9ZyD5j73DUnlZtu1IPjTF42mdvYpA/s400/0627-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842691094508482" /></a><br />As you probably know by now, the Russell is my favorite index for option purchases. It was especially strong today. At this point, I'd say 840.02 is a good stop-loss level.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA1bmL1EPZugroUmauFl_K8iIzoReRFkgWSDdQQRwkw8boLEj-YtMOcMQokcEAxGEQAuOt02T8kY0iPVNe5-FE9zKRrdl6D4NM4qQzN0RNRuseW2jxStRz1pZk8TI84E5Y_YI-_Q/s1600-h/0627-$rutcandle.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA1bmL1EPZugroUmauFl_K8iIzoReRFkgWSDdQQRwkw8boLEj-YtMOcMQokcEAxGEQAuOt02T8kY0iPVNe5-FE9zKRrdl6D4NM4qQzN0RNRuseW2jxStRz1pZk8TI84E5Y_YI-_Q/s400/0627-$rutcandle.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842695389475794" /></a><br />The S&P 500 also had a good day for the bulls. I've drawn the downward-sloping pennant that I believe is confining the market action these days.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5fp4jKZ6IFRmyEdVEGSyZ2l1TOBXi1f8G5_9wldNr7t5V7BcQ0y6naYorSMBQfiomwSC5czqp_YpMrQyhcQTJgcelb4YwLhW-vw2whGSnlo7zKu-c4CPMG9PzF7Lbp8qAkApgJw/s1600-h/0627-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5fp4jKZ6IFRmyEdVEGSyZ2l1TOBXi1f8G5_9wldNr7t5V7BcQ0y6naYorSMBQfiomwSC5czqp_YpMrQyhcQTJgcelb4YwLhW-vw2whGSnlo7zKu-c4CPMG9PzF7Lbp8qAkApgJw/s400/0627-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842695389475810" /></a><br />Now it just wouldn't feel right if I didn't offer my JCP chart of the day. One reader commented I should get out of those puts. Well, earlier today, I did. I don't think the fall has exhausted itself, but I'd rather take profits now and re-enter the puts after a retracement. If this stock pushes its way back to the neckline, I'm going in big-time again.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTr5jTmlOqfMStmn-9u6cyhl1wCXDIu9pKdlRnQRPA530_QSyZkJNZRts12Vbr-dqpcMZpcpIxTfrHnBP_vKTMmYESIRR1M6HQnZqUxt-lE6z1iDul0TfMeQQMrKFFXD4ZWLFiYw/s1600-h/0627-jcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTr5jTmlOqfMStmn-9u6cyhl1wCXDIu9pKdlRnQRPA530_QSyZkJNZRts12Vbr-dqpcMZpcpIxTfrHnBP_vKTMmYESIRR1M6HQnZqUxt-lE6z1iDul0TfMeQQMrKFFXD4ZWLFiYw/s400/0627-jcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842699684443122" /></a><br />I'm long Micron (MU) now. It won't be a long-term hold, I don't think. But this is a nice little bullish chart for now.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGn-wlSvLNiQxpFThBBZeUscvJuTNLRB9LsWdWYBzY9rpDac5uhKU9j8FuesdaIoTjFkQs4ylUGc6FUTzpEAF2pgobvfFXP_7diSCcKgcu-qiwY0yQzPMvXXoV9YKdsFTXG0GiA/s1600-h/0627-mu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGn-wlSvLNiQxpFThBBZeUscvJuTNLRB9LsWdWYBzY9rpDac5uhKU9j8FuesdaIoTjFkQs4ylUGc6FUTzpEAF2pgobvfFXP_7diSCcKgcu-qiwY0yQzPMvXXoV9YKdsFTXG0GiA/s400/0627-mu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080842703979410434" /></a><br />Let's enjoy a little George. See you tomorrow.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/c0Tgq8b_EJk"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src=" http://www.youtube.com/v/c0Tgq8b_EJk" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-17794687878980172782007-06-26T13:59:00.000-07:002007-06-26T14:53:06.689-07:00When It Seems Easy, Feel Queasy...I began this blog over two years ago, and I think that it has made me a better trader. Having to step up to the podium each day and offer up opinions (which are subject to scrutiny, disparagement, and future review) makes me think long and hard about the market. And the occasional public floggings I have received have imbued with me a healthy dose of humility that I think is essential to profitable trading.<br /><br />Trading profitably has become far too easy recently for my liking. If bearish trades start becoming like shooting fish in a barrel, I know it's time to take profits. There have been times in the past.......and this is very common among traders.... when easy profits encourage more trading. And the tide starts to turn against you. So you pile on more. And the losses start to pile on. And, before you know it, all your fantastic profits from the last downturn are M.I.A. I really don't want to go through that again.<br /><br />So as the trading day ended, I was kicking myself for having such a substantial position of puts on the Russell 2000 in place. There are some areas in my life where "irresponsibly large" is welcome, but options positions is not one of them. Let's just say I hope I don't wake up to a huge gap-up in the indexes. It could happen.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglPutizgZnp3ohPwkU0vdSR6jtw4Q2hIlYEdDclyOwWutBvuMcSgmQIcIUbbXZY0XUL3nagG9iNZrVuAx9MHzeZ0Be7rhhdZIl5s9z4NRWYy0box_dFPir90M5yTkiih1jwHzWqg/s1600-h/0626-$usasevenstages.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglPutizgZnp3ohPwkU0vdSR6jtw4Q2hIlYEdDclyOwWutBvuMcSgmQIcIUbbXZY0XUL3nagG9iNZrVuAx9MHzeZ0Be7rhhdZIl5s9z4NRWYy0box_dFPir90M5yTkiih1jwHzWqg/s400/0626-$usasevenstages.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488772758132706" /></a><br />The basis for my nervousness.......besides my own angst........is the $VIX. Just take a look as this multi-year graph. For ease of viewing, I have circled peaks and troughs. We have certainly had $VIX levels higher than the present one, but let's face it, this is pretty peak-y. As I said: I'm nervous.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-EXLgui0Dkx7v66psKqfJcA3Oe5O1FxR59RXMM39fuaqEW2sqIKrde_-a61u8ShOcgbmPCVI5NLU6a5O53OJ_aNkWI2j9wJdQVpZh3XlhcDkLZWJXSAepMcihpE895c0j2Bfn9g/s1600-h/0626-$hansblixdigsvixandchicks.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-EXLgui0Dkx7v66psKqfJcA3Oe5O1FxR59RXMM39fuaqEW2sqIKrde_-a61u8ShOcgbmPCVI5NLU6a5O53OJ_aNkWI2j9wJdQVpZh3XlhcDkLZWJXSAepMcihpE895c0j2Bfn9g/s400/0626-$hansblixdigsvixandchicks.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488772758132722" /></a><br />The Russell 2000 is below its supporting trendline, but this trendline isn't horribly significant. In other words, I don't put a heck of a lot of weight into the fact that it is broken. I'm glad it's broken, to be sure, but there's still a fair amount of support at these price levels.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs9IvFeph4YEtAyemfqqBa4j5GYd5QaM2ksEAS0M80eSc6hxLeqnUN8gswN3bOeGTXSGAsWGkCjANoFLG6C7NFriwDRgnb-urAvLr6dvm-pUKrh8xSt2yZB23ue6Q5Sa40rIzqiA/s1600-h/0626-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs9IvFeph4YEtAyemfqqBa4j5GYd5QaM2ksEAS0M80eSc6hxLeqnUN8gswN3bOeGTXSGAsWGkCjANoFLG6C7NFriwDRgnb-urAvLr6dvm-pUKrh8xSt2yZB23ue6Q5Sa40rIzqiA/s400/0626-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488777053100034" /></a><br />One way to look at the market is that, for the past month or so, we've been caught in a trading range, and we are at the bottom of that range now. I've highlighted the range area on the S&P 500 daily graph here. I do not think we would break into new highs from here, but we might wind up with a triple top or at least partially retrace our way back up near the former highs.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5hbTDMteTFK8pUpbeNnBIiH1q-XQEJS4Td-_4S7NKrbrQFZQCV4lEtGfi747jwhL4fdb5rROesFUMYEbpEEi_cl1Ji2O1Yjopjze9769j9yGd1KUxjLdClLkvGtMXbICHNZ3stQ/s1600-h/0626-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5hbTDMteTFK8pUpbeNnBIiH1q-XQEJS4Td-_4S7NKrbrQFZQCV4lEtGfi747jwhL4fdb5rROesFUMYEbpEEi_cl1Ji2O1Yjopjze9769j9yGd1KUxjLdClLkvGtMXbICHNZ3stQ/s400/0626-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488777053100050" /></a><br />One could look at the market another way........it is pretty easy to lay out a massive rounding top. Just look at the intraday chart of the S&P 500, where I've embellished it with probably one of the worst arcs drawn in human history. (I am not much of an artist).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9o0_VrYVcw4WAaeTINmFBFsFkNBL_GS2XRK5pLk-G3a_Os8WjEShE6wVh4-sACgPplqqNbHgxftLyFu32wJUsdjwMY6bTlLNewAUbwaFLr1OM6YxhnYxhUXtSvFzs5vSqiHub8Q/s1600-h/0626-$spxintraday.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9o0_VrYVcw4WAaeTINmFBFsFkNBL_GS2XRK5pLk-G3a_Os8WjEShE6wVh4-sACgPplqqNbHgxftLyFu32wJUsdjwMY6bTlLNewAUbwaFLr1OM6YxhnYxhUXtSvFzs5vSqiHub8Q/s400/0626-$spxintraday.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488781348067362" /></a><br />Returning to the $VIX, however, the zoom upward has been swift. And if the market settles down and starts marching upward again, the premium values built into options are going to shrivel up faster than Strom Thurmond's johnson on a chilly southern evening.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihPxRGGnRFXzHZweparhMuz2C9qLLNVASjM2yhOT86RhL7wbe9LupnsZ_lC4rKul6G2TBO1X_1ZZVycCtOXJZKWi_qna7G6SbS8VBp-RoTGyL1VqUj_hcmaG8oYIDcQlAKs_-2wg/s1600-h/0626-$vix.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihPxRGGnRFXzHZweparhMuz2C9qLLNVASjM2yhOT86RhL7wbe9LupnsZ_lC4rKul6G2TBO1X_1ZZVycCtOXJZKWi_qna7G6SbS8VBp-RoTGyL1VqUj_hcmaG8oYIDcQlAKs_-2wg/s400/0626-$vix.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488463520487314" /></a><br />OK, a few stocks. Stocks like CROX! I have, as I've mentioned before, lost some cash on buying CROX puts before. Fool that I am, I gave it another go today. My puts are slightly profitable. I was inspired by an article this week in Barron's. They say that easily 20% of this stock's value could be blown away just by right-sizing it to its industry. Plus, I think it's a fad.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoCGTLC6c6mBtwPNaebblhuAVWI-TtWU-CfkVeAkGS2qKmZdsEjtvuVJAGnJx3IbDnBkYDXUQcOoSkJj_S3QopiuUcDfkyUf4fVuLgFLPhIG2zOYFRUDAwr2HH09wBaPVtLSpiUQ/s1600-h/0626-crox.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoCGTLC6c6mBtwPNaebblhuAVWI-TtWU-CfkVeAkGS2qKmZdsEjtvuVJAGnJx3IbDnBkYDXUQcOoSkJj_S3QopiuUcDfkyUf4fVuLgFLPhIG2zOYFRUDAwr2HH09wBaPVtLSpiUQ/s400/0626-crox.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488467815454626" /></a><br />One similar shoe fad which is already "post-bust" is Heelys (HLYS), those obnoxious shoes that kids wear with the wheel on the heel. As you can see, the stock is doing poorly.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJHsLnl_pBqPAHPsB8M_Jp8IJERXvMpCz8VDllYC7xnxBW_ckwBdFw8NuA5ETSZDQtj90M2ltDPiaOg06T_cTYM1LkabopszSVsj-4kVbd_GikrY3ZFKhqzzpsODqp0YeKUeMQvA/s1600-h/0626-croxhlys.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJHsLnl_pBqPAHPsB8M_Jp8IJERXvMpCz8VDllYC7xnxBW_ckwBdFw8NuA5ETSZDQtj90M2ltDPiaOg06T_cTYM1LkabopszSVsj-4kVbd_GikrY3ZFKhqzzpsODqp0YeKUeMQvA/s400/0626-croxhlys.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488467815454642" /></a><br />I hate to mention JC Penney every day, but this continues to do beautifully. I've highlighted my price target. The puts I bought on this are up huge.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ4bbY5VB7aFzClZrdUPenda90qJ29NgoqeGN4kCskogJqvrZ02n94-FrAf-u-7pFtkZAXU3gSRP7Kf_XV-Kdkt0jEooDhODlxvhRWxAJNJi3D9TVw2GnZIaUPYUe4HqoSHhiXHQ/s1600-h/0626-jcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ4bbY5VB7aFzClZrdUPenda90qJ29NgoqeGN4kCskogJqvrZ02n94-FrAf-u-7pFtkZAXU3gSRP7Kf_XV-Kdkt0jEooDhODlxvhRWxAJNJi3D9TVw2GnZIaUPYUe4HqoSHhiXHQ/s400/0626-jcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488472110421954" /></a><br />Vulcan Materials (VMC) has a plainly defined range which seems to be breaking down. I'm short this, and it's got a nice ways to fall to the trendline.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCbms41iaeo0k6hv8JV077AiNQ55l3-0aGkHfGFaRPo_XTtsAuwsq_p5GIjZHpkqUcfvGyx0N_3d-m6Vhq-84Rb19q2_HE92pQZQjbnM2j9UFagq2nGQIGjNppIxE0TsoDBGufkw/s1600-h/0626-vmc.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCbms41iaeo0k6hv8JV077AiNQ55l3-0aGkHfGFaRPo_XTtsAuwsq_p5GIjZHpkqUcfvGyx0N_3d-m6Vhq-84Rb19q2_HE92pQZQjbnM2j9UFagq2nGQIGjNppIxE0TsoDBGufkw/s400/0626-vmc.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080488472110421970" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-22065859381606204972007-06-25T14:19:00.001-07:002007-06-25T18:10:18.703-07:00Oh, Baby...........I'm feeling a terrific sense of control over this market (at last). Recently, I've been doing extremely well. Even with intraday trading, I'll buy calls at just about the bottom, sell them at just about the top, then buy puts, and then ride those all the way down. I'm rarely this "in synch" with the market, but it's been a good feeling.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNq-kBCOkphHUeGkWfDI3Ip3hq93QwA440MJWe5QCqdiMAZQz-lbqZ7xlZBT794D3o_e8rKfgEg0u51BxrIDB6HeTy-3Vsbl3CkW-jz4CAU4r-qRDUNL-2GOhYvp14ofe3Jy2w9w/s1600-h/0625-$abbybaby.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNq-kBCOkphHUeGkWfDI3Ip3hq93QwA440MJWe5QCqdiMAZQz-lbqZ7xlZBT794D3o_e8rKfgEg0u51BxrIDB6HeTy-3Vsbl3CkW-jz4CAU4r-qRDUNL-2GOhYvp14ofe3Jy2w9w/s400/0625-$abbybaby.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167556449032002" /></a><br />I noticed that Barron's this week features Blackstone's CEO on the cover, pointing out that a massive public offering of the largest private equity partnership clearly signals the peak of these beasts. I couldn't agree more. Oh, let's check in to see how the public's investment in the two-day old Blackstone has been faring.......<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYJLrEmogTDHLgOUKzmb-vaE4q0rmvhu90oqbZtu-2qoWgY72uaazmE7gld_n6W9us4TiubFABGagxMEJlFYFCWXilpFWPBrcAh4J1vAxl38R_532_CIiqZ3rwmLFZF2NHX6TF5Q/s1600-h/0625-$bxrocks.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYJLrEmogTDHLgOUKzmb-vaE4q0rmvhu90oqbZtu-2qoWgY72uaazmE7gld_n6W9us4TiubFABGagxMEJlFYFCWXilpFWPBrcAh4J1vAxl38R_532_CIiqZ3rwmLFZF2NHX6TF5Q/s400/0625-$bxrocks.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167560743999314" /></a><br />Of course, the big news today is that today's bounce from last week's downside action completely evaporated. The Dow surged 120 points higher (and I profitably closed out some calls I bought earlier in the day, then gobbled up a huge number of puts), then the entire gain by blown to smithereens. As you can see from the Russell, the medium-term trendline is now broken.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR82IU3BoeS2Jk6oNedeOuidAw-23H27sdwMDsKnZbsRHhZZVMA8mE2MuawToxVTEQcFydfp6CyEgy2K60In8ljw7slE3KZruQQ2f7yBp_TijaW5GBQwDtVBBdJyS7Mo0_OTeO0Q/s1600-h/0625-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR82IU3BoeS2Jk6oNedeOuidAw-23H27sdwMDsKnZbsRHhZZVMA8mE2MuawToxVTEQcFydfp6CyEgy2K60In8ljw7slE3KZruQQ2f7yBp_TijaW5GBQwDtVBBdJyS7Mo0_OTeO0Q/s400/0625-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167560743999330" /></a><br />About half an hour before the close, I sold all my puts (DIA and $RUT), since I felt the selling was - - at least very short term - - overdone. Here's the S&P 500.....<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigCW2HcDN7m7PnJSYJxfT-zsdtY5FDT3uZpELtjDyn3vsb1OdZZHQ6W6A3xdPRK4svswUOL6DbsLTeokOk670GfFAr_EJVrfpv0a4OamoAlrzOuR4bOLeRmrzAAmvP5jmOnZ0EfA/s1600-h/0625-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigCW2HcDN7m7PnJSYJxfT-zsdtY5FDT3uZpELtjDyn3vsb1OdZZHQ6W6A3xdPRK4svswUOL6DbsLTeokOk670GfFAr_EJVrfpv0a4OamoAlrzOuR4bOLeRmrzAAmvP5jmOnZ0EfA/s400/0625-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167565038966642" /></a><br />In a broad sense, I think things have changed. It's been horrible awaiting the change, but I think it is finally here. In the broadest view, I think we have witnessed the passing of the Mother of All Double Tops.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfmR6BLilrJPFy8kdk8CCpIb-Mn4pFqYbQgLowblC39uAMyodwXHNW-dNevPxHgN3fwqTG-y2LOVvJD7pjDhOhGVYuGUI1LJQgeXGXym28QwbeeuuZZ4EDPH89uicM1ZTvEs6xWQ/s1600-h/0625-$spxdoubletopmassive.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfmR6BLilrJPFy8kdk8CCpIb-Mn4pFqYbQgLowblC39uAMyodwXHNW-dNevPxHgN3fwqTG-y2LOVvJD7pjDhOhGVYuGUI1LJQgeXGXym28QwbeeuuZZ4EDPH89uicM1ZTvEs6xWQ/s400/0625-$spxdoubletopmassive.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167569333933954" /></a><br />This is not to say I'm speculating on outright collapse from here. On the contrary, I think we're probably due for another bounce up. But - as with today's - I may well decide that the bounce has exhausted itself just a couple of hours into a single trading day. My portfolios are devoid of any index positions right now, and consist of carefully-selected equity shorts, equity puts, and a couple of longs (DXD and BBI).<br /><br />If you're just dying for a bullish stock, AutoDesk (ADSK) looks interesting:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBqUWmmfdJeSYfqh0W9ZYEYAPcmcVXKR867Jn49SelUAfhYxCrx7bkaIGa39phSnIhyphenhyphenPV4GbRYHPTgPx1Sq2i5tCBGKV0RjbbjyCgCho79MSTW9SITJ2gZ3eEOYU79CWHuPpf3g/s1600-h/0625-adsk.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBqUWmmfdJeSYfqh0W9ZYEYAPcmcVXKR867Jn49SelUAfhYxCrx7bkaIGa39phSnIhyphenhyphenPV4GbRYHPTgPx1Sq2i5tCBGKV0RjbbjyCgCho79MSTW9SITJ2gZ3eEOYU79CWHuPpf3g/s400/0625-adsk.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167199966746370" /></a><br />Real estate has been in a freefall for months. I was thinking it would stabilize. But we might be in for some more downside action. Apartment Investments (AIV) has an impressive head and shoulders pattern.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlUk1YjnZFGRf8l_PZsxPJZtgooF4XqjsAKVi3KBHUbH2mbhew8yDB-5GQ7z5D4FDQIjuHJZQB2D3TjFUWKIVVnt5nSpENYlwwfpWjXLI4SjL80AUgEyZsZiAFTg6Kfdp3Xfl-Q/s1600-h/0625-aiv.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlUk1YjnZFGRf8l_PZsxPJZtgooF4XqjsAKVi3KBHUbH2mbhew8yDB-5GQ7z5D4FDQIjuHJZQB2D3TjFUWKIVVnt5nSpENYlwwfpWjXLI4SjL80AUgEyZsZiAFTg6Kfdp3Xfl-Q/s400/0625-aiv.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167204261713682" /></a><br />My short in BEAS had a good day. I've put the clearly defined support and resistance horizontal lines here.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqEO4RZIoy_hMp-aNDkipPiFuJpDmauT7Ef4YF-D833UzXuuXZYWyUliNNUYXDtfI0CBGElPS5Zre2dByBqC3tg6j-z4MHDMIMkGMKiJJpGub17SjBiR4O3Svrr91D2noB-fh_Iw/s1600-h/0625-beas.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqEO4RZIoy_hMp-aNDkipPiFuJpDmauT7Ef4YF-D833UzXuuXZYWyUliNNUYXDtfI0CBGElPS5Zre2dByBqC3tg6j-z4MHDMIMkGMKiJJpGub17SjBiR4O3Svrr91D2noB-fh_Iw/s400/0625-beas.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167204261713698" /></a><br />Bear Stearns was the "culprit" behind today's fall. I've been mentioning this as a short (or put purchase) for a long time. You can plainly see how, after its fall from its ultimate high, it tried to retrace........but the jig is up, and it's been falling ever since.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1Db62dguIQ5pfqiJXqJx3s58m0z5-QUiToaz2Sken30Kqo90i7A9fDuOmWy6oKNgy82dpyL4cykhkz50zDNGEjGMaCKEXbwFBQw8DapXJLjq-EOa7O8VXPCHQw6hBEhe4vOTXQ/s1600-h/0625-bsc.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1Db62dguIQ5pfqiJXqJx3s58m0z5-QUiToaz2Sken30Kqo90i7A9fDuOmWy6oKNgy82dpyL4cykhkz50zDNGEjGMaCKEXbwFBQw8DapXJLjq-EOa7O8VXPCHQw6hBEhe4vOTXQ/s400/0625-bsc.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080167208556681010" /></a><br />Looking at a broader chart, you can see a major, <span style="font-weight:bold;">major </span>supporting trendline has been shattered.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheVJVDhLGJxIBoW12lRlA9G4N6VMd1Im33lDSHdeJcHXbrO5rfxVIH_Zy8Ltp7ozlmQXhTVOThukrUBNDV8DmTyye34vMa1FUq8mom8OU2l-4Y5I3xR38lC-PgqydrQI6nWA97BA/s1600-h/0625-bsclong.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheVJVDhLGJxIBoW12lRlA9G4N6VMd1Im33lDSHdeJcHXbrO5rfxVIH_Zy8Ltp7ozlmQXhTVOThukrUBNDV8DmTyye34vMa1FUq8mom8OU2l-4Y5I3xR38lC-PgqydrQI6nWA97BA/s400/0625-bsclong.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080166890729100994" /></a><br />Goldman Sachs - employer of the hottie pictured at the top of today's entry - is suffering as well, although not to the same degree. My puts in this are up, and there's plenty of downside left on the stock, tinted here.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UqV2zsCFDDTSoy0SPd7iAUNCy5qbHQpsxXNvXMmo1gTZqdGnOMQk4Ds2f1dFWcr7GlPaEv5AVjabsqLudOopbmONpE0BN1zOdvmEE6Meryi9dFSkxjfmyDdsdFKeorEMWIobJw/s1600-h/0625-gs.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3UqV2zsCFDDTSoy0SPd7iAUNCy5qbHQpsxXNvXMmo1gTZqdGnOMQk4Ds2f1dFWcr7GlPaEv5AVjabsqLudOopbmONpE0BN1zOdvmEE6Meryi9dFSkxjfmyDdsdFKeorEMWIobJw/s400/0625-gs.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080166899319035602" /></a><br />Another set of puts that's doing great is JC Penney (JCP). I've illustrated a potential target. Thank you, polyester! Thank you, leisure suits! Thank you, lawnmower care supplies!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSZS4xUXQ8vvZws0yCEJWE1jqSJTuk1b0Pfz7mhKTZx5akDUOBA8PO_gqBI6Txce4G4lJITc4RHyU7H2FFCak-pome4xDcIDM8r5WA6NgHE89bgQS0ZNLEdBAiFegIzY_LbNvfYQ/s1600-h/0625-jcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSZS4xUXQ8vvZws0yCEJWE1jqSJTuk1b0Pfz7mhKTZx5akDUOBA8PO_gqBI6Txce4G4lJITc4RHyU7H2FFCak-pome4xDcIDM8r5WA6NgHE89bgQS0ZNLEdBAiFegIzY_LbNvfYQ/s400/0625-jcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080166903614002914" /></a><br />Massey (MEE) is sporting a monstrous, gorgeous head and shoulders, and I think the retracement is complete now.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWUuluGpZGo9TaZUX9AbFuEr4vVd76wqLC8wivy19N1vS7pzb_c3QtRPbqVsWcho09Nyc7vG-VHrfaNSKnY9ihK9hR9gMCZ0x7gC8Y_3SOGX7EhpLmrMxkLwcQnVmFJuhcmOkMg/s1600-h/0625-mee.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKWUuluGpZGo9TaZUX9AbFuEr4vVd76wqLC8wivy19N1vS7pzb_c3QtRPbqVsWcho09Nyc7vG-VHrfaNSKnY9ihK9hR9gMCZ0x7gC8Y_3SOGX7EhpLmrMxkLwcQnVmFJuhcmOkMg/s400/0625-mee.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5080166907908970226" /></a><br />A bunch of people have written me asking to explain some options trading basics. I'll do it on a quieter day when the market is up half a point or something. I've had enough. I'm going for a swim........<div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-25453300607583050862007-06-25T07:19:00.001-07:002007-06-25T12:14:31.183-07:00RatatouilleJust a very quick early morning post to say that I've closed out all my index puts and have (on a smaller scale) gone long indexes for the time being. I think a bounce is in store, although whether the bounce lasts only an hour or two today or for a number of days in a row remains to be seen. <strike>Suffice it to say I'm pulling in my bear paws on indexes, although carefully-selected bearish stock positions remain in place with good stops.</strike> (Update: I actually 20 RUZ-GD at $25, sold them at $27.50 about an hour later, and went heavily short.......)<br /><br />I have the good fortune of being related to an employee of Pixar, and as such, I get to see (with my family) their films in advance. Yesterday we went to the Pixar theatre and got to see <a href=http://disney.go.com/disneypictures/ratatouille/>Ratatouille</a>.<br /><br />Believe me, it is their best yet. Even better than The Incredibles. If PIXR was still public (as opposed to being part of DIS), I'd say buy it. Even if you don't have kids, it's a fantastic film.<br /><br />And thus ends today's movies section!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.aintitcool.com/images2006/RatatouillePoster2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://www.aintitcool.com/images2006/RatatouillePoster2.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com46tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-3144653108301107742007-06-22T15:38:00.000-07:002007-06-22T16:35:51.506-07:00Poetry in MotionI've got a riddle for you.<br /><br />What well-known Jewish personality made a bundle of money on Wall Street today and needs to have their back hair waxed? If your answer is Abby Joseph Cohen, you are technically correct, but the answer I was seeking was Stephen A. Schwarzman of Blackstone.<br /><br />OK, here's the second part of the riddle (isn't this fun, kids?)<br /><br />What percentage of public investors have profits on newly-minted Blackstone Group (BX) today, now that the trading day is through? The answer: basically zero. Oh, I'm not talking about the midget founder of the place. He's doing just fine with his billions, thanks for asking.<br /><br />I'm talking about the poor schlubs who thought they could get inside the club by buying into this stock. Virtually every single share bought is in a losing position. Nice going, folks.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEfyqC9mPslBMj9EbHjjo1bcwf7gjoJLHllcgs9tzO4iV6lThLRp_uBDKjWobujkbtVTISZ-8vsYMmvQhEuTa7tZQiAwP6xtnsNDvYcSOB4I3oLxqyjKgjifOTC-4q2hkaw7mMDg/s1600-h/0622-$bx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEfyqC9mPslBMj9EbHjjo1bcwf7gjoJLHllcgs9tzO4iV6lThLRp_uBDKjWobujkbtVTISZ-8vsYMmvQhEuTa7tZQiAwP6xtnsNDvYcSOB4I3oLxqyjKgjifOTC-4q2hkaw7mMDg/s400/0622-$bx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030515397023378" /></a><br />Yesterday, if you'll recall, I wrote:<br /><blockquote>But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is about seven-fold oversubscribed. Nothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow.</blockquote><br />Well. Down 189 more points. Nice.<br /><br />I actually had a great day, making money both on the short side and - for the brief bounce of the day - on the long as well. I remain cautious and humble in the face of a massively moronic and gullible public that could be coaxed into buying again. Thus I tighten my stops every day.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwtbZVzIF6IBAgH_ZfSqxeWMVI3bGkVUvBl0nc0HVUsnqZ9K2ErP8By7q2-vwQiugBhjFcNXYoF7UV8cEXYzxBWqe4nSdVBWVRCLLPqDn8MtCENTaaqkvl7nHMHWHwhJfmGtPEpA/s1600-h/0622-$indu.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwtbZVzIF6IBAgH_ZfSqxeWMVI3bGkVUvBl0nc0HVUsnqZ9K2ErP8By7q2-vwQiugBhjFcNXYoF7UV8cEXYzxBWqe4nSdVBWVRCLLPqDn8MtCENTaaqkvl7nHMHWHwhJfmGtPEpA/s400/0622-$indu.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030515397023394" /></a><br />The Russell has been stronger (relatively) than I'd like to see. But it remains attractive to me largely due to its reasonable bid/ask spread on the options. I remain dumbfounded at the complete rip-off represented by the S&P 500 options market. It's just criminal.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrw3EV6A5wc4eHC16iZvauzM2SdiS2I68LpYubOx8E8Dam33rDv9WgNGb6fKb7lOSAu_s1xipoU3aZz-kbYc-R0R37K_Fi0lHtPBXYo7XOiwIPHlYqKo9brLa2L8-pNfNeupudA/s1600-h/0622-$rut.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrw3EV6A5wc4eHC16iZvauzM2SdiS2I68LpYubOx8E8Dam33rDv9WgNGb6fKb7lOSAu_s1xipoU3aZz-kbYc-R0R37K_Fi0lHtPBXYo7XOiwIPHlYqKo9brLa2L8-pNfNeupudA/s400/0622-$rut.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030420907742786" /></a><br />Oh, speaking of the S&P - - - in spite of the recent fall in equities, we remain absolutely sky-high. Dare I even say grotesquely overvalued. Oh, well. It'll take years to sort out. Long story short, don't be fooled with the tiny inching down we've been doing. It's nothing compared to the <span style="font-weight:bold;">radical </span>overvaluation still present. Trillions of dollars of equity need to be destroyed before we are at interesting values again. Whether the top has passed it totally unknown. And it doesn't matter to me, as long as I manage and maintain these stops responsibly.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgihQ7fBxLAs7Fezk3lJl_x444iyC6oESuUpoV8eNkHUYe_4QnqNGdzBTtlS1_bOh_IOJooVOCwukD4lxOue5colt0abvciTIeTGCWQFjBdk7VpO8QXR1UX21H-1IeZmYiKNM5gCA/s1600-h/0622-$spx.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgihQ7fBxLAs7Fezk3lJl_x444iyC6oESuUpoV8eNkHUYe_4QnqNGdzBTtlS1_bOh_IOJooVOCwukD4lxOue5colt0abvciTIeTGCWQFjBdk7VpO8QXR1UX21H-1IeZmYiKNM5gCA/s400/0622-$spx.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030425202710098" /></a><br />Symbol ALB bounced up to a perfect retracement, thus permitting me to re-enter the position which I closed profitably just a couple of days ago.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVPnsKGbozP2zr4PuvarQjd-9aEWsrGsRNOKfgCcKMuXeGMt-ts-5ZtXHGYwZEDZTVHttobU2U6_0j14A_Ed-LMBg-I-KTbW5gyAPDQW-KljmaTZsM8IdjJy_N6-YtVokKhfMxhA/s1600-h/0622-alb.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVPnsKGbozP2zr4PuvarQjd-9aEWsrGsRNOKfgCcKMuXeGMt-ts-5ZtXHGYwZEDZTVHttobU2U6_0j14A_Ed-LMBg-I-KTbW5gyAPDQW-KljmaTZsM8IdjJy_N6-YtVokKhfMxhA/s400/0622-alb.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030429497677410" /></a><br />Symbol CAH isn't doing badly for me either. I own puts on this.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSoP8_g1NG3WB0NNhSUip5EZSUka0Lob182u-_c9u_FGsAwxQp3e1IuXf_Wnf7Hz7lfsv95MfwflbD3ziwv2jrUwb1KGlx5mwXWAkgNkGz6Nb3HfC58dcizruAHE4aPih-0Q0Nrg/s1600-h/0622-cah.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSoP8_g1NG3WB0NNhSUip5EZSUka0Lob182u-_c9u_FGsAwxQp3e1IuXf_Wnf7Hz7lfsv95MfwflbD3ziwv2jrUwb1KGlx5mwXWAkgNkGz6Nb3HfC58dcizruAHE4aPih-0Q0Nrg/s400/0622-cah.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030433792644722" /></a><br />Although Cigna (CI) is too big to simply collapse, it's got a cute little H and S pattern whose neckline was broken today.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnWf19YwW-zyq6NCSxZxR3kRUt6HkbRIIGtr7s8Ej5lPWyW5XMTWPOSiSpv5FoVGX7RYxB2wzpop9SPC9zLo6AVshdUa-5JcYXy1bXIhPbZIQ-PMOEB4UGTkFYU5ZsOT6QCpgaMA/s1600-h/0622-ci.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnWf19YwW-zyq6NCSxZxR3kRUt6HkbRIIGtr7s8Ej5lPWyW5XMTWPOSiSpv5FoVGX7RYxB2wzpop9SPC9zLo6AVshdUa-5JcYXy1bXIhPbZIQ-PMOEB4UGTkFYU5ZsOT6QCpgaMA/s400/0622-ci.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030438087612034" /></a><br />A new short I think I'll enter next week is - again - Malaysia (EWM).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfXP9rZt-0j4OxiaOeKeI5d9JWy3LYCQN0gu4i5_2lOr22unyh8TUgdtewD8rJN594JDA0Kt5W6_K-lCJ-3DupFMpwfhBhBYZxuhRn8u_WAw2EoExSD_MFAAeU7lMo7ehSwdGOfQ/s1600-h/0622-ewm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfXP9rZt-0j4OxiaOeKeI5d9JWy3LYCQN0gu4i5_2lOr22unyh8TUgdtewD8rJN594JDA0Kt5W6_K-lCJ-3DupFMpwfhBhBYZxuhRn8u_WAw2EoExSD_MFAAeU7lMo7ehSwdGOfQ/s400/0622-ewm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030047245587954" /></a><br />I've got to hand it to Google (on which I have not had a position in a while) - - they seem to be doing everything right. This is a gorgeous bullish pattern - just beautiful - particularly in light of today's market action. Poor old Yahoo is just a mess. Why anyone ever used Yahoo in the first place - - I thought they sucked in 1996 when I first tried them - - is beyond me.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrhVLJRHDl79UnluoJ7ksGldZWtB_ZQaifrU0tHfjkk8c8NGSfwyxmIpI9ZvmCrO1797NTvSBy8lHs8cx-5YNDAFy9sBZx28WM4XW3vdob-33w4C5iDp2WCjpr0RCSS3QEKxJkUA/s1600-h/0622-goog.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrhVLJRHDl79UnluoJ7ksGldZWtB_ZQaifrU0tHfjkk8c8NGSfwyxmIpI9ZvmCrO1797NTvSBy8lHs8cx-5YNDAFy9sBZx28WM4XW3vdob-33w4C5iDp2WCjpr0RCSS3QEKxJkUA/s400/0622-goog.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030051540555266" /></a><br />Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered some today, so my puts prospered. This isn't a big fall by any stretch. I guess maybe the lame-o BX reaction hurt them? I don't know.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYpL2ZbzNN2pcQA6jaTJUEYY7I3rRDj0YvAsuazrxXh3ucrz17uQncjVYrznhxcGwv5OBgT6OIXZmNZhRM1neJbd5df-LVQSRRDaTjYHNcU3f61e0S2fzoLZqay3eqqnGC8QS1wg/s1600-h/0622-gs.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYpL2ZbzNN2pcQA6jaTJUEYY7I3rRDj0YvAsuazrxXh3ucrz17uQncjVYrznhxcGwv5OBgT6OIXZmNZhRM1neJbd5df-LVQSRRDaTjYHNcU3f61e0S2fzoLZqay3eqqnGC8QS1wg/s400/0622-gs.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079035712307451570" /></a><br />I continue to hold my JC Penney (JCP) puts, which push a little higher into the green each day. This is a dynamite pattern. Never has polyester clothing been so good to me!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpBLuW9w0JvpJfde7NobwDOeuOFHa94qyBh7fGeC4TAO4nx6pReKsDrhqA2ghBvqzqQ-7MU-fs4AmF0sf-6TG8ESwYnun1VLFq9AeUIjr0R6fLqW3wUKrJI9tkaCMrejg4Gm5-nQ/s1600-h/0622-jcp.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpBLuW9w0JvpJfde7NobwDOeuOFHa94qyBh7fGeC4TAO4nx6pReKsDrhqA2ghBvqzqQ-7MU-fs4AmF0sf-6TG8ESwYnun1VLFq9AeUIjr0R6fLqW3wUKrJI9tkaCMrejg4Gm5-nQ/s400/0622-jcp.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030055835522594" /></a><br />I haven't shown Meritage (MTH) in a long time, but I just want to use this to illustrate the kind of slow grinding death equities can go through. I think this is a good proxy for just about the entire stock market, although housing got a head start on the rest of us.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwGxR3SvYgGn44J8Me6Re6ASFC8S5O3-Du50xpPNfB4acLcp1v4_RuEcceHzpk73oQql9okkXvOnFsckCf9svgrABS2Y2UUqJ4rtR7bguZegptGLxV7tcP1TiXGYB9ZZfa8XPTYg/s1600-h/0622-mth.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwGxR3SvYgGn44J8Me6Re6ASFC8S5O3-Du50xpPNfB4acLcp1v4_RuEcceHzpk73oQql9okkXvOnFsckCf9svgrABS2Y2UUqJ4rtR7bguZegptGLxV7tcP1TiXGYB9ZZfa8XPTYg/s400/0622-mth.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5079030060130489906" /></a><br />It's been a good week. Particularly since the detractors are too sheepish to show their faces around here during down days. So let's celebrate:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jy7tiCwDHQQ"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jy7tiCwDHQQ" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer"><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/TechnicalAnalysisStockChartsWithTimKnight" title="Subscribe to my feed" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="border:0"/></a></div>Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.com58