I know that the presidential cycle results in a 10% correction every 2nd yr and then every other cycle (which we're in now) results in at least a 20% fall.
A 20% correction for DIA would bring it down to between $92-93.
Using fib retracements what do you think the bottom will be?
It is a good time to be short some stocks - no doubt. Are the "bears" in charge? When the weekly INDU hits the 200 day average (about 800 points from here) I'll capitulate. Until then - enjoy the correction.
The daily move is nothing but noise - only the longer term moves count.
At this point, even if we're in a New Bear Market or the mid-term election year correction, it does seem like we're due for a bounce. I'm thinking tepid inflation data or some statement from the Fed about inflation being contained might be a catalyst.
i think tomorrow will be a huge confirmation day. today all hell broke lose, a lot of major supporting trendlines were broken.
Yesterday I was thinking that a bull bounce was inevitable, but after today, I think the Bear Party which I think was too early is now ready to begin its full swing.
Now its just waiting for some nice put plays to take form, and Im just waiting for the account to explode.
Tim Knight founded Prophet.net, considered by Forbes and Barrons to be the #1 technical analysis site (sold in early 2005 to INVESTools, where he is the SVP of Technology now). Tim has been trading actively since 1987 and focuses mostly on option positions. He is a dyed-in-the-wool technician, leaning heavily on marked-up charts for his analysis. The contents of this blog are NOT to be considered investment advice, and you should know Tim may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned here.
5 comments:
Tim,
I know that the presidential cycle results in a 10% correction every 2nd yr and then every other cycle (which we're in now) results in at least a 20% fall.
A 20% correction for DIA would bring it down to between $92-93.
Using fib retracements what do you think the bottom will be?
It is a good time to be short some stocks - no doubt. Are the "bears" in charge? When the weekly INDU hits the 200 day average (about 800 points from here) I'll capitulate. Until then - enjoy the correction.
The daily move is nothing but noise - only the longer term moves count.
At this point, even if we're in a New Bear Market or the mid-term election year correction, it does seem like we're due for a bounce. I'm thinking tepid inflation data or some statement from the Fed about inflation being contained might be a catalyst.
But... that's just a guess.
i think tomorrow will be a huge confirmation day. today all hell broke lose, a lot of major supporting trendlines were broken.
Yesterday I was thinking that a bull bounce was inevitable, but after today, I think the Bear Party which I think was too early is now ready to begin its full swing.
Now its just waiting for some nice put plays to take form, and Im just waiting for the account to explode.
AM I RIGHT PEOPLE?
s&p breaks 2-year trendline/support
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