Tuesday, July 18, 2006

YHOO Getting Slammed

I was sorely disappointed that the Dow ended up 51 points today. At one point it looked like it had a very serious shot at slumping below 10,660, which would mean rock & roll for us.

After hours, YHOO and IBM reported their earnings. YHOO, shown on the Level 2 screen below, is getting walloped for the moment (they haven't had their conference call yet), and GOOG is falling in sympathy. Good. Maybe this will weaken things further tomorrow. (Newbies: clicking any image on this blog provides a much bigger image).

27 comments:

Hbarr said...

Serves YHOO right for messing up their message boards. Those sewers were perfect just the way they were.

Anonymous said...

i dont think the new yhoo message boards are going to be good for the paid bashers.

Anonymous said...

Tim, what advice can you give to people (such as myself) who have been sitting on the sidelines throughout all this mess. I mean, you had already taken out a number of put options before the huge decline. But now, with the market seemingly "bottomed" for the time being, it seems hard to pick out specific places to go short.

You're probably making a killing on your puts right now. Congrats.

Sanjay Sola said...

Yahoo hasn't had a good earnings report in a long time Same with Ebay and Amazon. those stocks are has beens and get slammed at earnings.

Tim Knight said...

As for what to do now - - I realize the risk is higher now. But if the market really does get slammed, we've only just begun the earliest part of the sell-off. I'll put it to you this way. Of the 60 or so positions I've got, I'm holding onto every one of them. If I didn't believe in them, I wouldn't be. So I don't think it's too late.

Anonymous said...

YIKES!! YHOO still getting a beatdown. Now down over 14% after hours.

Ouchie.

PB said...

YAHOO!!! oh yeah baby, nothing is holding up this market now except disillusioned comedians such as Ben Stein. It's all roses an LA!!!
I pitty 'da fool! Although I still except the market to fart around 10,700 - 10,900 (maybe even 11,000 on a good day) until earnings season is over and then whammo!! Ben Bernanke's got the choke-hold on this market. The funny thing is it's just the beginning, still a lot of bullish bias out there.

PB said...

P.S. isn't it funny how all the "bullish" bloggers have not been posting recently? ie. hurricane5, johnwheatcroft. What's the matter boys? the slaughter house ain't exactly the Breakers now, is it??? Just kiddin' --- just remember to sell on the next rally!!!

Brian said...

Short the hell out of UNH ! it's right near a 7 month downtrend line. The recent rally was on much lower volume than its gut-wrenching 5 month drop. And it's been pushing near this but meeting some good resistance. Talk about low risk, high reward!

Anonymous said...

Incredible. IBM was helping most stocks until YHOO reported and of course didnt do well. I think you short that whole sector especially AMZN which is still holding up pretty well in the low 30's. I think AMZN joins the likes of EBAY and YHOO in the mid 20's very soon. As for the overall markets today was interesting. Looked like we found a bottom today but after todays earnings I think the nasdaq could easily see 2025 tomorrow and if earnings from INTC, AAPL, EBAY and MOT are not good expect Nasdaq 2000 by Thursday morning. Also watch the PPI report tomorrow, if its like todays data you will see an incredible sell off.

Besides that expect .25 rate hike on august 8th WITHOUT A PAUSE. I hope those foolish investors dont count on the federal reserve pausing, if they do it will only CREATE more selling in mid august.

G2006

Anonymous said...

Does anyone see a bounce. Tim mentioned that if the dow breaks 10660 thats it, were headed lower, im predicting 10500 on the dow, but do you ever get that feeling that when everything is just so oversold that things could bounce. What are the chances of a bounce back to 11000-11250. I dont think that much.

Since I do not short that much I may just buy the DXD and SDS etfs.

I think 1150 on the s&p would be a short term bottom. Thats a 7% drop or a 14% return for SDS. Not bad.

Anonymous said...

IBM profit rises 10% as sales slip;

SALES SLIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LMAO IBM SUCKS!

mike said...

I'm way away from being an expert but I'm expecting a small bounce/sideways action for a day or two then more big declines. Todays end of day strength plus some modest support gives me the thought of a small/modest bounce. I closed out a few shorts today that hlooked oversold but I kept the majority of mine in play. I'd expect to re-enter them tomorrow or the next day if they don't drop big before I get the chance.

Anonymous said...

yeah ... 51 points up and lots of news stories about the markets looking good !

niko said...

In Wheatcroft's defense, I don't think he'd call himself a bull... He's more of a market philosopher. Goes which way the wind blows.

Just BTW, the reveling in the bearish sentiment is making me very nervous. I'd like to hear some bulls shouting "pullback!" Otherwise, I'll have a hard time believeing in this bear.

Hurricane5 said...

I'm hearing DOW 5,000 in 2 years by a few people again, and I'm posting to reiterate a few things. The DOW will indeed cross 12,000 in the year 2006. Oil is not going to $100. Gas is not going to $4. GOOG will trade at $600. NTRI will trade at $120. EBAY will pass $35. YHOO will rebound past $30. APPL will see $65. BIDU is headed for the moon. We will not see 9,999. The Fed will not raise past 5.50%. The Middle East will clam down. I hope this clears a few things up. Have a nice day.

Shawn M. said...

hurricane5 - that is a beautiful utopian perfect world scenario. We gonna cure AIDS and cancer by the year's end too? Not trying to bash you, just pointing out that your outlook is the rosy Dow 12,000 version and the Dow 5,000 crowd is the chicken little version. Reality lies in between.

bsi87 said...

well, all I know is this is options expiration, DJIA max pain is at 11,000. The ATR is 121 so DJIA could hit 10,920 today and help trigger a short covering rally. QQQQ max pain is 37 and there was a strong reversal (kangaroo tail Elder calls it). May not last long but it could be painful to a bear.

Anonymous said...

it looks like a head and shoulders on qqqq/ndx 10 min chart

need a break above 36.33 for confirmation

Anonymous said...

confirmed

bsi87 said...

And the Nazdaq ATR is 31.69 and the VXN is dropping.

I wouldn't want to stand in front of these markets.

bsi87 said...

NBR July 7

DRACH: You can expect to see more of the same because it`s almost impossible for the market to get anything sustainable, especially on the upside against the Federal Reserve. So you ain`t seen nothing yet until they get done. You`re going to have the same choppy patterns.

KANGAS: When do you think they`ll pause? Is it in the near future, intermediate, or it`s going to go into the months and months and months.

DRACH: Well, they should now because it is important to keep in mind that the lag time, what you see now is when Fed funds were 4.25 percent, not 5.25 they just raised to. So this has to work its way through the pipeline. So they`re playing a very dangerous territory here because they`re already getting deceleration of the economy, housing and other areas.

KANGAS: Understood. When they do pause, do you think it will trigger a major rally in stocks?

DRACH: Yeah. Usually you`ll get a sharp rally, maybe 400 or 500 points, and then typically it will fall back down to where the Fed began because they start seeing the effects of the pipeline at the higher rates and there is still economic problems.

KANGAS: Uh-huh.

DRACH: You get a rally, get a pullback and then a more sustainable rally later.

KANGAS: So if you want to participate in the first rally, you better be nimble and get out on time before you get into the second one.

DRACH: Yeah and you want to be there in advance because it will spark pretty rapidly.

Sanjay Sola said...

Nice bear bounce. volumes are not good. Fed is more than likely raising rates past 5.5% also.

But the bounce could take us all the way to 2150-2160 (near the 50 day). market will become overbought and plummet again.

the other alternative is that the Nasdaq will head to 2100 and stall there, but I think 2150 is more likely. it would shake a lot of bears out and sucker people into thinking the market is OK.

Anonymous said...

Higher Core CPI figures, once again. On pace for a 3.6% annualized rate, well above the self-imposed 2% limit for the Fed.


And the markets skyrocket.

Oh, and gold goes from -2% up to +2.6% as a result.

Go figure.

Hurricane5 said...

This is awful for all the bears. The market now realizes that 5.50% is the max. EBAY and AAPL release after the market and the numbers will be great. Shorts will need to cover.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the interest in put/ calls, the xau jump this morning should not have been a big surprise.....

Anonymous said...

ebay with good numbers....no wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. this market bounce is incredible....long qid