Monday, April 10, 2006

Express Scripts and a Look Back

A week ago I suggested shorting Avalon Bay and Health Net. I'm pleased to see both of these stocks have fallen pretty much every day since then.

Another stock I've been watching a while is Express Scripts (ESRX) which broke its neckline today and seems like a pretty clean short sale.


Another high-flier which looks like it has double-topped is old favorite NutriSystem (NTRI).


My recent "bullish picks" absolutely stink. I think I'll stick with being a bear! There are just so many great shorts out there right now. If I get time, I'll review a few this afternoon.

3 comments:

John Wheatcroft said...

Tim I'm going to call you on AVB. You called it short on Monday - it closed that day at 106.61 and on Friday it closed at 106.03 which was its first down day that week. Now I note today of course that it is down 2.63 which is ok - but the market absolutely sucked today so everything was down. Just a quibble.

I don't know if the market or AVB are going to stay down. The patterns suggest a one day event and it wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow they came back again. Volume was tepid at best and the VIX is still showing a moderately oversold condition.

Oh well, trail your stop and take the profit you so richly deserve.

And I mean it.

Christopher said...

I see the double top, but there is not increase in volume to the downside. I don't think its a very reliable double top based on the books I have been reading.

Hurricane5 said...

I will reiterate my comments made to you on April 4th. I maintain my $80 price target on NTRI. I further maintain my belief the stock rockets 10%+ after the market closes monday, april 24th. The earnings will be jaw dropping. I was correct in saying the stock will pull back after going up 9 straight points without a single down day. You should have shorted the stock when I told you it was going to pull back a few points. It has pulled back. You missed the short oppurtunity. Just as I previously said, "there are no interstates in this business. Just winding roads that dont get there as fast as we like. And annoying kids in the back seat make us stop and let them out from time to time. But ultimately, NTRI reaches it's destination of $80." I suggest you buy it for the run to 80. Any weakness in this stock is a gift and investors should continue buying up the shares. Please do yourself a favor and buy before the floodgates open on April 24, 2006 at 3:01pm.