Monday, April 03, 2006

Couple of New Short Ideas

The market is soaring this morning (Dow's up over 100 points). In the face of this, I offer a couple of relatively low-risk short ideas (note to the bulls out there: how about you offer some specific stock recommendations, including stop-loss prices, since you seem convinced of your stock-picking acumen?)

First is Avalon Bay (AVB), which is in the overheated REIT market. This is a hyperbolic stock which has a stop-loss price of 110.65.


The second is Health Net (HNT), which I'd give a stop-loss of 51.03. It broke a major ascending trendline and has retraced to an important Fibonacci level. Again, this is a low-risk, high-reward trade since the stop-loss is so close.

6 comments:

PB said...

Hey Tim:
Awesome stuff! Your blogs rock! The bears are in good company, but it's to the bulls that I urge to check out the following link:

www.cross-currents.net/

Have a look and save yourself some money!

John Wheatcroft said...

I don't usually pick stocks publicly - but just for you = I pick AVB - with a stop of 106.50 and a take profit target of 110.50. No more than 4 days or noon Friday.

And the internals have collapsed on this soaring market as has RUT. I don't think it's going very far.

John Wheatcroft said...

Forgot - AVB is currently at 107.30. This is where I make the pick.

John Wheatcroft said...

Stopped out at 3:30. What a ride - this market is incredible - Good pick Tim.

thenoz said...

Not to be negative about Alan Newman, but I have read him off and on for about 10 years. I can't remember the name of his old firm. However, Alan has been bearish for at least 10 years. The blind squirrel syndrome will eventually hit but in the meantime, he has missed major market calls. Atleast, that is what I have noticed. By the way as of today, I am bearish also in the short-term.

weeklybull.blogspot.com

costas1966 said...

Thams for the avb I was not following that one. This is another reit that I like.
http://xrysos.blogspot.com/2006/04/vornado-realty-trust-double-top.html