Friday, February 17, 2006

Time to Short Apple?

Apple Computer (AAPL) looks like a pretty good short right now (or, if you're open to it, buying puts). I'd suggest a stop of 71.02 on this one.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Tim: the DIAmond breaking to the upside kinda screwed things up here for a few bears, when can we look forward to shorting the DIA again?

Anonymous said...

Come on Man, A 13 year old girl could see that. I would expect a little more from a man with your knowledge.

Tim Knight said...

Hey, a trade's a trade! I'm not ashamed to post an easy recommendation!

Tim Knight said...

My pleasure.

As for pappa bear - - well, I've been burned recently by "calling the top", so call me gun-shy! The DIA touched the ascending resistance line today, but I'm going to let a few more days go back before saying much more about the $INDU!

Tim Knight said...

I'd say $56 or thereabouts.

Anonymous said...

Tim,
Seems to me BRCM is a better short ??
Comparing the two:
BRCM:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?brcm
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=BRCM&87395#ttop
http://www.stocktargets.com/cgi-bin/ticker.pl?command=BRCM

AAPL:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?AAPL
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=AAPL&1712#ttop
http://www.stocktargets.com/cgi-bin/ticker.pl?command=AAPL

What do you think ?

Tim Knight said...

I'm doing a measurement from the neckline (drawn on the chart) to the top of the chart and subtracting from the neckline; perhaps not coincidentally, this also corresponds with the next retracement level down.

Tim Knight said...

I'd never heard of StockTargets; thanks for the link - pretty cool. I look at BRCM, but it's not nearly so 'clean' a chart as AAPL.

Tim Knight said...

Amazing how many comments my tiny little post yielded, especially on a holiday.

To Jeff from Stanford......I'd suggest the March 75 puts. I like puts that are just in the money, and I typically got for an expiration at least 4 weeks out.

As for Des, the whole basis I use for technical analysis is that the fundamentals are already built into the chart. It would be silly for me to worry about the fundamentals, whether the company is big or small. So, yes, I tend to be a bit of a purist as a technician.

Anonymous said...

AAPL looks a risky short here.It is right at the 2+ year trendline support and betting on such a trendline break (until it breaks) is not a good idea.

Tim Knight said...

I've never heard of the "kiss goodbye", but it's fitting. One day doesn't make a trend, but thus far AAPL is moving in the right direction (down).

Anonymous said...

No. I heard it called back kiss.

Tim Knight said...

This got stopped out today. Which is why I mentioned a stop price (71.02) in the first place!

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous:
don't know which 2-year chart your're looking at for AAPL, but the support doesn't come in until $56

Anonymous said...

AAPL also broke through it's 50day ema (by 15 cents or so, but it's a break, probably to take out stops)a strong up day like today shd bring us some selling tomorrow