The Range

OK, let me get this out of the way: I was wrong about Apple. Back on June 11th, I proposed that the hype around the iPhone would be a precursor to the stock getting walloped. Well, on the first trading day after the iPhone's introduction (yesterday), the stock did indeed inch down (and on a 126 point up day on the Dow, no less).

But it reached a new record high today. And, looking at the chart, there is no technical reason for the stock to be weak. So I sold my puts at a (relatively modest) loss this morning, and shame on me for ever doubting the power of Steve Jobs, my lifelong hero.

Phew. OK, done with the self-flagellation. Today's entry will be very short, since I imagine most of you are already wrapped up in July 4th festivities. As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like the readers of this blog were correct in suggesting very bullish behavior just prior to the Independence Day holiday.

One thing is clear, though. Over the past five weeks, the markets have been bouncing around in a clearly-defined range, ending (temporarily, at least) the unabashed push upward preceding June.


Zooming in a bit on the Russell 2000, the range has actually had two stages, demarcated here with two different colors of highlight. The most recent range is more volatile, yet it has a higher base.


This becomes even more obvious when you look at the $VIX. The range between highs and lows on the $VIX has exploded higher since June 1st. It makes for some extremely jumpy trading, since bulls and bears are struggling more than ever for control.


As for my broad view of the market.......it's pretty simple. I chalk up July 2 and 3 to the aforementioned Independence Day strength. I would expect to see some meaningful weakness for the balance of the week. If that doesn't take place - - and certainly if we push above the range that I've illustrated - - it looks like the bulls will take back the control which they set aside as of June 1st.

The Lonesome Tale of Burrell Smith

This will be my last "introduction of the iPhone" post. Promise.

I have been mixed up with computers since 1979 and have religiously followed the characters of the Silicon Valley since 1982. I know the history of Apple particularly well, especially around the creation of the Macintosh. Thus, I've become acquainted with the stories of the players in that story.

Let me introduce you to three players in particular, numbered below. 1 is Andy Hertzfeld, one of the software geniuses on the original team (He works at Google now). 2 is Bill Atkinson, another of the software geniuses (he invented Hypercard, created the original MacPaint program, started General Magic, and is now an acclaimed photographer). And 3 is Burrell Smith, considered the hardware genius behind the product.


Here's another photo of them, taken on the day the Macintosh was unveiled. You can see how exuberant they look. Notice another circled face, that of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.


Nearly a quarter of a century has passed since those photos were taken (incredibly...) So fast-forward to the present.....well, last Friday, when I was hanging around the Palo Alto Apple store. And look who wanders in......none other than Steve Jobs!

Now, you've got to recognize what a big deal this is. It's iPhone day. And this store is the epicenter of techies and geek-freaks. And Steve Jobs shows up. It would be like having a unveiling of a major new edition of the Bible and God beams down for a visit. You can imagine the reaction. So in this clip you see him checking out the store and deciding to go back across the street to grab his wife and bring her in too.


And once they are in the store, Jobs immediately sees the aforementioned Andy Hertzfeld (who, 30 seconds into the clip, you can hear saying "Bill stayed here all night", referring to Atkinson) and, at 1:00 into the clip, you can see Jobs amble over to Atkinson to chat with him a while. So it's like a micro-reunion.


So where was Burrell? That, to me, is kind of the sad part.

My understanding is that after the Macintosh-crazed 80s, he ran into some issues. Suffice it to say that I see him on the street at least a couple of times a month. He has a very long beard, partly grey. He walks at a quick pace, but looking at the sidewalk the entire time. And, to a random stranger, he might even look like a homeless guy (although I'm pretty sure he's living comfortably and likes to make regular jaunts to Whole Foods to get out and about).

What's striking to me is that most people would really assume he's just another homeless guy, without realizing what a major figure this person was in computers - and the Mac in particular - today. And his absence from all the excitement in the video above just reminded me of the juxtaposition. Because as the accidental reunion was taking place, their missing member was probably alone, walking to the grocery store, stare affixed to the sidewalk, destined to pick up another quart of milk.

The JesusPhone Arrives

Today must be Steve Jobs Day, since both the iPhone and Ratatouille make their introductions. That can't be an accident.

I've never done this before, but here's a Slope of Hope Original Video for you that I just put together. Enjoy:

Ode to Steve Jobs

All the world was abuzz today about the iPhone. This is one gorgeous, sexy, amazing-looking product. Although I've used a PC for years, I bought my first Macintosh early in 1984, and I worked at Apple for a few years. Steve Jobs has been my hero since I was about 14 years old, and the adventures he has had in his business life make Odysseus look like a bore.

Steve Jobs has more style in his pinkie than Bill Gates has in his whole body. And even though the Google founders could buy and sell Steve Jobs many times over, I doubt there's anyone in the country that would opt for lunch with the Google guys over Steve Jobs. He's amazing. As is the press coverage....the top story on CNN!


As well as Fox.....


So it's not surprise that Apple exploded higher today....on volume of over 100 million shares! It wasn't that many years ago that the entire stock market traded 100 million shares. Now just one stock can do it. Just look at this graph!


This is a very late posting, so I'm going to have to tear through it. Boeing (BA) still looks like it's changing trends.


COF, mentioned many times in this space, is moving achingly slowly, but at least it's moving down.


Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.


CSX still looks good on the short side.


And FTO is looking like it has a real chance at completing its head and shoulders pattern.


HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).


And Hilton (HLT) is obeying the "trendline changing from support to resistance" phenomenon.


Oh, and then there's RIMM. I set my stop too tight on this. It got killed today - obviously because of Apple. I mean, the Blackberry is the most boring piece of crap on the planet compared to the sexy iPhone. Who wants one of those ugly Blackberries now? That's so 2002.


RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.


...as does SIE...


...and TSO...


It's late, so I'd better publish this. I hopefully will have more time tomorrow for some general market analysis. Thanks for stopping by!