Shave This....

Let's face it. The whole world's gone crazy. The Dow is pushing toward 13,000 just for the sake of going to 13,000. A third-rate Marilyn Monroe dies and creates a courtroom circus. And a rich, beautiful young woman loses her mind and decides to pattern her life after Colonel Kurtz...


A quick entry tonight. First, for you FOREX types, the NZD/USD seems to have pushed high enough to once again represent a low-risk short trade. I'd put a stop at .7070


The NASDAQ 100 has been terribly strong - - reaching a six year high today in the face of a weak day on the Dow. It's tough to short in the face of such strength, but at least it's clear the $NDX is at the top of its rising channel.


ANDE, a long suggestion I've made many times, has all the right stuff.


Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.


I've been hanging on to my CME puts for ages, and I was starting to get bored of them. Today the CME fell over 17 points, and it's potentially going to snap its trendline. Now it's getting interesting.


Research in Motion (RIMM), the stock that never seems to break, is high enough to keep the stop-loss level reasonable.


Finally, Ryland (RYL), mentioned here as a short on multiple occasions, is accelerating its downward trek.

It is a Most Elusive Fish...

The markets were very strong today. At least I am not putting my foot in my mouth. I've made it very clear lately that until there's a clear "rupture", we're still in bull-land. Earnings season isn't doing a hell of a lot so far for our cause. It reminds me of a favorite movie clip of mine......



The Dow Jones 30, shown below, hit another lifetime high today. I wouldn't be shocked if we pushed all the way toward 13,000 in the coming weeks. Earnings from EBAY this evening have the stock up over 10%.


The S&P 500, while not at a lifetime high (its high in early 2000 stands unbeaten) is nonetheless at the very highest point of a massive ascending wedge. Looking at the charts tonight, it's obvious that the strength is widespread and devastating to the bears. (Goldman Sachs just being one of countless examples).


The only bearish holdout is the beleaguered Dow Transports. Of course, I'm sure the bulls will say Dow Theory is sad and outmoded and should be ignored.


If there are any living bears still out there, I like the looks of Adobe (ADBE).


...as well as Black and Decker (BDK).


For a bullish play, CRR looks like it is beginning to turn northward after a long slide.


Ryland (RYL) has recovered back to its neckline, although I use that term somewhat loosely since this isn't much of a head and shoulders pattern. All the same, with this much recovery under its belt, it makes going short the stock much less risky.


Much the same logic holds true for Sierra Health (SIE).


Lastly, I will mention one short suggested here, Textron (TXT), seems to be getting slammed in after hours trading. Nice to have one bright spot to anticipate for the morning!

Money Shot to Start the New Year

Greetings, my beloved fellow bears.

I introduce this year to you with some of the worst album covers of all time. Just to lighten the mood before we get down to business.





A merciful God has spared us from listening to the contents of the above albums on this blog.

I have so much to say, but honestly, I'm on the world's slowest network. So I'll have to keep it relatively basic tonight.

I rarely read USA Today. It is to journalism what Pamela Anderson is to dramatic acting. But I happened to see its cover story on Ten Reasons the S&P 500 Could Make a New High in 2007.

It was the usually claptrap bulls - - including Abby (ack! cough) Joseph (hack!) Cohen - - like to smear around. I will spare you the list, but the 10th reason they provided: "Because records were meant to be broken." What a bunch of nimrods.

I was delighted, of course, with today's action. We entered this year with the bulls snorting like mad. The GLOBEX was up huge yesterday. Markets around the world soared, including the parabolic Chinese market. And every blessed article on the stock market talked about what a fantastic year 2007 was going to be for the bulls.

So the market shot higher by 130 points. And I gobbled up a ton of S&P puts. Then the market starting sinking. It turned the other direction 170 points, but finally closed the day up 10. All the same, I'm not complaining. Serving up disappointment to the bulls is always a delightful treat, and this is a great way to start the year.


Here's the daily view of the S&P 500. Just take a look at today's range! What a tug-of-war!


I've been promoting the $XAU as a short ever since about $149, and it continues to behave nicely. This is looking better every week.


Now on for the straight charts. I am posting this so late, I don't have time for commentary, but I'll just lay the symbols out for you. BHI...


CERN


FTO, whose head and shoulders continues to form beautifully:


GS:


QQQQ (again, just look at that range, highlighted in light blue):


RYL:


And gargantuan XOM:


I'm sorry for the relatively text-free post. But godspeed to you all, and for crying out loud, keep the comments germane (and non-anonymous, if you're able!)

Pain in 3-D

"That's why I'm looking this bull straight in the face and laughing at it. Savor the moment, pal. You're about to get wasted."

Whoops! I figured it out! I wasn't looking at a bull! I was looking at a mirror! My bad.

Well, look. Today hurt. It hurt bad. I got blasted out of a bunch of positions. And I notice the comments board has gone bananas. I don't even want to set foot into that place. It's probably like a bar fight by now.


But this is something to keep in mind - - I can deal with getting blown out of positions. But I don't hang on. That's why I say, over and over - always have a stop in place. Always! Take PNRA, for instance. I bought puts on it. Some people said I was wrong to do so. Turns out they were right. That's fine. I can deal with the loss. But if I had just hung on (past the circled point, where I got pushed out of the position), now that would be stupid.


As enamored as I've been with OIH shorts, I closed out my energy shorts today, including OIH. I think the selling in energy and gold is really overdone. There are hammer patterns all over the place today!

So I'm going to blow away my reputation as a permabear by offering what I think are interesting stocks to consider buying (yes, buying) or buying calls on (that's right - I said calls). I still have lots of put positions, and plenty of shorts. But there's no denying the force of buying at this point. (By the way, the meaning of the 3D in my subject title today means 3 Digits - - a triple point rise in the Dow). And so I offer these tickers for your consideration. The stop prices should be pretty obvious........(and I've included volume where I think it's important):

Google (GOOG) which looks like it's pushing through a medium term trendline.


HOV:


HRS:


JEC:


MEE, which was a great short for a while and now seems to be firming up:


MLM:


NEM which is a good play on a bounce in gold:


NOV:


OII:


PBR:


PXD:


RBAK, which is looking really fantastic, particularly when you check out the volume:


RYL:


SII:


X, which is nearing a supporting trendline:


And, finally, the $XAU (gold/silver index) which, yes, looks like a massive head and shoulders pattern, but in my opinion is really at a major support line right now and is quite oversold.


Before anyone starts running around saying the top is here because Trader Tim the Permabear is buying stuff, let me be clear - I've still got plenty of shorts. I still think the market is ultimately in for a big wipe-out. But there are plenty of stocks right now, especially related to energy and metals, that look really sweet on the upside.

Now - - - back to eating my humble pie.