Kick the Clay that Holds the Teeth In

As a true sign of the times, here's an article about a 16 year old girl that is confident her business will make her a billionaire not just in her lifetime, but by the time she's 25. OK, sister, good luck with that.

I've mentioned the correlation between the NZD/USD and U.S. stocks, and I've got a feeling some are skeptical. Here's a graph of these two apparently unrelated financial instruments. You can see the correlation yourself. In fact, it gave a pretty good heads-up about the 2/27 plunge two weeks in advance.


Regular readers of this blog know that the head and shoulders is a favorite bearish pattern of mine. The way it is supposed to work is well illustrated by MRVL, shown below. The difference between the neckline and the top of the head was about $10, which traditionally is the target price for the fall. MRVL nailed its target to the penny.


My hope is that my AMR short - which has been doing great, thanks for asking - will follow suit as well. There's quite a way to go before the target is reached.


I don't have a position in Capital One Financial (COF) anymore, but I've got to say, this is one monstrously large looking topping pattern.


Merrill Lynch (MER), on which I own puts, seems to be turning the corner. RSI and the slow stochastic are in a downturn, and the retracement seems to have played itself out.


Much can said of US Steel (X) as well.


I think today might be the last "the Dow has to go up because it just keeps going up" day for a bit. My sense is that we'll see a lower Dow on Monday. See you then.

Cool Water

Greetings, beloved bears.

Although today seemed like a total yawner (Dow down just a few points), it was actually a great day for my portfolios. Oil's weakness (and I am using OIH as my basis, even though obviously that's not crude oil) has been great, and it just keeps getting better. I'm maintaining something like 80 different positions, all puts, and they're doing dandy.

The volatility index, $VIX, is low, low down, and I like that. Because I think it's about to churn upward again. Check out the supporting trendline.


I mentioned the picture-perfect Fibs on the QQQQs last week, and these are behaving very nicely. The $NDX was much weaker today than the other averages.


Speaking of OIH, here's an update. I know I post this graph virtually every day, but it's such a honey, it's worthy of our constant care and attention.


The question, of course, is how far down will crude go? I'm thinking about $53 or so in the near term, based on this continuous contract graph.


Posting a bazillion graphs is a drag. Let me share some of my newer ideas for sweet-looking put positions. Oh, and hey Prophet.net users - - good news - - I nagged enough to get an OK on making ProphetCharts available on the site. It's gonna cost ya. But these are God's own charts.


I like CME. It's expensive, which means there could be real some green on options movement here.


Oh, and if you go back to my entry of May 16, I suggested MRVL as a short. If you look at the graph from back then, you'll see it was about $54 at the time. In after-hours trading, it's something like $16 right now. Yowzah! Nice.


For the convenience of any visiting bulls, here are direct links to Garfield, Cathy, and Family Circus. I hope they tickle your long-horned funny bone.