Tasty Shorts
The market didn't do too much of anything today. Oil (and therefore OIH) softened up a tad, which is consistent with my speculation that the energy market is going to resume its downward movement. Gold, in spite of the metal's rise in price, softened too on the $XAU. The Dow just lost a handful of points. At least we didn't have some big 'recovery' day after Friday's nice drop.
I just wanted to share a few charts on which I own puts right now. Here's AMG. This pattern is basically in a "post-broken trendline" situation, which is a favorite of mine. The general uptrend has been clearly broken, and the stock has recovered partly or fully to the underside of the trendline. These often represent low risk/high reward trades. Let's call this kind of pattern PBT for the sake of today's entry.
LEN is just a nice topping formation:
NDAQ looks pooped:
TXT is another "PBT":
I've mentioned MRO a few times already:
Altria (MO), yet another "PBT", which seems kind of common these days:
The VIX went up some time, which is also consistent with my view that we've bottomed out on volatility and complacency. The market misbehaved badly in September and October (typically bearish months, yet the market went up) so let's hope the typically bullish months of November and December likewise confuse everyone! We bears could use a break. A sustained break.
10 comments:
anyone have any opinions on this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF5My4Z6jHiY&refer=home
U.S. Statistical Fluke Exaggerated Growth, Will Be Reversed
By Carlos Torres
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected increase in auto production last quarter was a statistical fluke that will be reversed, making current U.S. economic growth even weaker, according to a former Commerce Department economist.
Last quarter's annualized 26 percent increase in auto production shocked Joe Carson, now director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. Without the gain, the economy would have grown at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, not the 1.6 percent the Commerce Department reported today.
Its not getting much attention in the main stream media...
Walter,
Check out Nouriel Roubini's site, he's been calling for these numbers. He's a Dr. of Economics at NYU and goes into detail about what you mentioned. He's very good at what he does and has an enviable record for getting it right. He's calling for a recession early next year as well.
Might help if I tell you how to get there. www.rgemonitor.com\blog\roubini
Walter, in addition to Roubini's blog, you can also get some discussion here http://bigpicture.typepad.com/
Hi eddiefl,
i don't think MSTR has enough forward eps momentum to break through 123...
at rsi 79 i still think it has some upside....
anything above 123
and MSTR enters over priced territory...if it does manage higher than 123,
check off on w%, williams percent...at http://www.investertech.com
try to get w%= 0.50..that's a good entry place...
if you get w%=0.00...then short the next day...
i successfully shorted spy recently at 138.8 and i had to use all this....
z-stock esrx mtw apol
Found two interesting double-tops that might be good to short:
CP-Canadian Pacific Railway
SMG-Scott's Miracle-gr Co
I've been following this blog for a few months and have learned a lot! Thanks Tim, your charts are very educational!
Judging from the action so far today, maybe it IS starting to matter that the economy is failing.
DIE, BULLS, DIE!!!!!!!!!!
today's earnings charts are UGLY:
SPG, EK, UARM... like NTRI last week...
they appear good on surface - run or gap up and then fall hard on giant volume...
this is good!
Tim (or anyone else) - How do you find these set-ups? are there particular market scanners you use?
gold breaking out. next stop 614 and then 636. the dollar is weak. Gold is the play. former wanna be bear turned goldbug!Whats a girl ta do??
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