Quickie
Hi Folks,
I might have time later this evening for a regular posting, but as it is now, I'm being pulled in about five different directions.
As bearish as I've been on gold, I wimped out yesterday and closed my positions. Profitably, to be sure, but gold continues to be really weak. It is basically a complete H&S pattern at this point, and it's massive. Just massive. If it follows through on this pattern, the gold bugs are going to get totally squashed. Sure wish I held on to those $XAU puts! Ouch.
I'm still very short oil, however, and that's looking sweet for tomorrow from a pattern perspective.
Today was relatively boring (Dow down 16 after noodling around most of the day). September sure isn't providing the kind of fireworks we bears would like to see! But it's all in the charts, not the timing.
If I don't have time to post later, I'll see you Friday.
76 comments:
Gold and oil look ready fro a bounce.
As for the QQQQ's they are above the upper Bollinger band, a fall to $38.70 is definitely in the cards for the next week or so.
- Trader Fred
QQQQ's look like they're about to walk the upper Bollinger band. The bands are also about to widen indicating a big move is afoot. Looks to me like we could go a lot higher.
THIS PLACE HAS BECOME THE BLIND LEADING THE BLIND !!!
stockshaker, and bsi are'nt you the ones who used to haunt all the penny stock sites pumping and dumping??? investors hub, pennys haven or some shit??
got to see a reversal in the qqqq, tommorrow or its headed higher for sure, problem is cpi#'s will determine direction not technicals, weekly broke the rising flag to the upside this week (another up week) but today closed at weak resistance. will close all positions tommorrow regardless, the market way to unstable for me right now, take on some small ones monday poss.
should kept my gold puts, "friggin loser"
plunger exactly right:
problem is cpi#'s will determine direction not technicals
thats why most of the time i dont acknowledge technicals because anything like a CPI or job report can change the whole attitude of the market.
For some reason I think everything will be in line and by 9am will see the futures up .5-1%. Im being negative towards the bears because I still have most of my money tied up in inverse funds.
Trader 2006.
i agree trader 2006, seems like evryones anticipating #'s coming in low or in-line, either way it will be a rally for the bulls, however if #'s are worse than expected im curious whether there will actually be sell off, way this markets been lately, im n ot so sure there will be anymore,
im definatley a technical trader, fundamental investor, but i like the techs for trades,
If the CPI numbers are favorable, it might spark a small rally. But I don't think it will be anything spectacular like we saw last month.
On the flip side, if the numbers are in-line or if they come in hot, then there's a good chance we will see a pretty significant selloff in equities. But gold/silver, which have been obliterated in the last week, will absolutely soar.
I'm still 100% neutral in my holdings. But I might take out some short side trades if the CPI numbers are hot and the market begins to decline.
-Tony
wit quadruple witching friday, the market will be flat. CPI will be in-line so no sell-off or rally.
dash ... you are one hopeful bull. After all of this you are still expecting more? Based on what exactly? A move 'a lot higher' needs to have a pull-back for it to start. Tech broke down bad May-June. As far as I am concerned this 'rally' is a bull trap! Enjoy.
I guess I say white you say black, eh?
- Trader Fred
If anyone still has any doubts about the Fed keeping up this market by pumping in liquidity, and thinks its just a conspiracy theory, please check out today's post on www.contrahour.com. They have a chart of FOMC activity showing exactly when and how much was pumped in, and the effects on the SPX.
Does everyone get paid with stock indexes? I mean what's the big deal about not letting markets fall?
Here's a guy who thinks the Dow will go to 15000. He says he is relying on fundamentals as well as technicals:
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/16827
confused bear
Anonymous said...
wit quadruple witching friday, the market will be flat. CPI will be in-line so no sell-off or rally.
dash ... you are one hopeful bull. After all of this you are still expecting more? Based on what exactly? A move 'a lot higher' needs to have a pull-back for it to start. Tech broke down bad May-June. As far as I am concerned this 'rally' is a bull trap! Enjoy.
I guess I say white you say black, eh?
- Trader Fred
7:11 PM
have to disagree, i think tomorrow will bring much volatility. Today the markets traded pretty much flat, everyones waiting for this number. Last months CPI and PPI started this entire rally. If we get anything hotter than 0.3% I think we will see a sell off, anything in line of 0.2% or lower and the bulls will take this one home tomorrow.
As for the BULL TRAP, I AGREE 100%, when this drop comes its going to be fast. Im sticking with my predictions of something in the range of 10840-11,000 by the end of oct to early november. No one expected the selloff we had in June or July. There not expecting the next one either!!!
By the way that finance channel they call cnbc is now putting up little notes on the bottom of the screen showing how far the DOW is from making new highs.
Trader 2006.
not for nothing is he known as 'helicopter ben'.
won't they ever learn? the japs tried the same trick but couldn't keep the nikkei up.
you're sooo good.
spare me my life.
take anything you want.
i was robbed by two ben.
toshi
confused bear for every positive statement Herb Morgan made in his dow 15,000 prediction i can predict twice as many negative statements.
Im confused too, remember back in June and July when we started seeing triple digit losses on a daily basis and every bull was feeling it, this is the exact thing the bears are going through. I hate sounding like a broken record but this rally has a little steam left in it, thereafter the bears take over.
Trader 2006.
part of an article from the street.com
About this article:
I believe traders will begin putting on distribution pressure. . I don't expect the index to break 1630-35 with any sustainability on the first test. . I wouldn't get aggressive shorting unless you see a move closer to 1630. .
If by any chance we get to 1650 on the ndx ill be buying some more QID.
Trader 2006.
I was sitting around tonite looking at charts of oil and the closes on the DJIA over the last 5 years. I had forgotten how much things have changed. I've been playing the market for about 15 years and for the majority of that time a rise in the price of a barrel of Brent Crude of 3 or 4 dollars was a disaster for the DJIA.Anyway,on 12/11/01,exactly 3 months after "9-11",Oil clzd at 17.59 per barrel ,and the DJIA clzd at 9811. Okay we move on to Oct.9th,2002,Oil closes at 28.58,and The DJIA has it's LOWEST close it's going to have, closing at 7286 that day. Higher Oil /Lower Dow. It used to be just that easy.Now,Oil is almost $ 50 higher than it was at that 17.59 price less than 5 yrs. ago and the market has come back UP 4500 points.Other than knowing the oil stocks went through the roof(Duh)I haven't quite figured out how the ralationship between Oil and the DJIA changed "THAT MUCH".Other than that, I'm just waiting for tmrw'z expiration and next weeks Fed meeting on Wednesday and see what happens. Good luck to all !
Denver
tony, pb i hope you guys are right for "puts" sake, but market has odd feeling to it right now, i havent been trading as long as some here, but this is weird set ups here, all the leaders sanjay speaks of are ibd 100 stocks who cant sustain breakouts, semi's up every week, , this oil fall seems really suspicious to me, no economic sense, maybe profit taking but overspeculation, i dont think so,
cpi #s out, in line , and they're all happy, yet year cpi still at 2.8%, biggest gain since 2001, yea, woohoo, what the hell? the bulls will run with this, and inflation is nowhere near under control, at this rate, we'll end with a .50 rate increase in early 07 and really see some backlash then, oh well, here we come pompalona, for the running of the bulls
This rally is strong on price (but low on volume) as not many were expecting it!
exactly right pb on the sustaining of markets by oil companies sales and earnings, thats why the inverse relationship between markets ,oil and gold in no longer as valid as it once was, with hedge funds, etf , spdr etc, the market and commodoties can move together, up or down, as well as apart,
anything in line of 0.2% or lower and the bulls will take this one home tomorrow.
just like i said, they are going to pump this market up as much as they can.
Trader 2006.
And why all of the sudden is oil dropping, just 2 months ago there wasnt enough oil to keep up with demand now ALL OF THE SUDDEN there is plenty to go around, come on. This market is just to pathetic. All day long cnbc has guests on saying 40 dollar oil blah blah blah. I also heard last night on Fox from one analyst that the drop in crude price will offset a housing decline, what the F$%K!!!!!!!
Also kept hearing dow 12,000 even dow 13,000. They mentioned that once headlines read new highs on the dow that people will start putting their money back to work in the stock market since there really isnt a place to go. Sad thing is that same channel, different show about 6 weeks ago had everyone extremely bearish.
Again when everyone gets happy and bullish its time to think your gameplan over.
Trader 2006.
hate to tell you this guys, but we've all been living in denial. having a bearish outlook is ok, but having it in the face of higher market day after day is insane. i mean, if the technicals say buy, why are you still holding on to your beliefs?
converted bear
6:19am
I remember the market dropped day after day in June and July and all i could think of was going long, i was trading on the long side about 90% of the time, then I lost a bit going long when the market was falling, thats when I started thinking its time to short. Went long till about dow 11250 then took out shorts and bought the inverse ETFS, ever since then the markets have exploded. Im not selling my inverse funds, last time I sold my QLD it jumped about 10 bucks. Im holding, we will drop soon, looking for a 3-5% decline by early november.
Trader 2006.
tim how much did you lose on all the non oil shorts? i expect you lost a lot.
profit taking is going to come soon!!
Trader 2006.
the FX market is signalling more rate hikes ... so why the F are markets up?
Oil's down from $78 to $63 b/c of that huge find in the Gulf of Mexico...& yesterday's comment from a Saudi oil official that we've only tapped into 18% of the worlds oil reserves.
how's the mkt gonna react to that...& now that the fed is done raising rates...& beakouts in IBM, CSCO, MSFT, UTX, GOOG, AAPL, HON, DD, T...ALL THE STOX THAT MATTER THE MOST ARE STRONG
HOW MUCH HIGHER DO THEY HAVE TO GO BEFORE YOU REALIZE THEY'RE GOING UP?!?!?
Ja feels like MAy all over again.
Trader 2006.
Tony,
Time to start building positions in SLV and perhaps GDX/GLD.
Also starting a QID position. The COMPQ:VXN ratio is as high as it's been for some time now.
Wouldn't go whole hog but these trades look high probablity to me.
bsi87
re: anon penny stocks. Sorry, most stuff I trade is 5 bucks or more with daily volumes of 300,00 or greater. Must have me mistaken for someone else you dislike.
To: Converted Bear @ 6:19
Good message for all of us here to read. "DENIAL",being the key word.The DJIA is now only 100pts. from hitting an all time high,so you know it's gotta at least play with that.The put/call ratio has been expanding as we have been getting higher.Interest rates have stabilized.The FED won't raise next week.If you own a home(s),as I'm sure everybody reading this kind of site does,you are still quite a bit richer than you were 4 yrs. ago,even with the 10% recent pullback recently.Volume has been expanding the last 2 weeks.We had a 1.8 bln and a 2.2bln share day this week.And as our friend DOWNOSEDIVE said a week ago,"There just ain't no better place to put your money right now ".I think right now I'm inclined to think a new high on the DJIA will bring in a new wave of buying next week.Oh,and aren't a lot of big board companies buying back their stock right now? Hope to hear from you again DOWNOSEDIVE !
Denver
PAY ATTENTION TO THE VIX!!!!
CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (WCB:^VIX) Delayed quote data Edit
Index Value: 11.58
Trade Time: 10:12AM ET
Change: Up 0.03 (0.26%)
Prev Close: 11.55
Open: 11.53
Day's Range: 11.51 - 11.69
52wk Range: 10.15 - 23.8
Trader 2006.
added to QID at 61.55
Trader 2006.
haha, BSI87, are you for real??? I thought you were my business partner! Anon penny stocks, you are right on the money!
I do pump and dump penny stocks, and right now, I do run my operation out of a little hut off some island near hawaii. And anyone reading this blog, here are the next wave of stocks that im gonna send you a hoard of spam on: SHUT, THE, FU.K, UP
Trader 2006
The VXN (used with Naz) is more extreme. The Naz:VXN ratio is higher than Sept 1.
market may get a sell-off today, i think im being tooooo positive
Trader 2006.
Denver and others -
As has been the case for the last 3/4 weeks, we all need to put aside trying to find any rational for this rally and accept that its here and it has forward momentum for an unknown length of time of indices level. As Denver and others has said, the DJA just has to test the all time high, having comeback this far from around 10700. IF IT HOLDS just above the high for any duration ie 3 to 5 trading days, then I think it will rally to 12000, because that kind of price behaviour will be sufficient to create confidence and indeed a minor buying frenzy. I think however that 12000 will then be the exit point. The trouble is knowing the timing of this. Its quite possible the 12000 level wont be reached untilyear end. If however the indices cant hold above the existing all time high, then a fall back could occur as early as this month, or no later than mid Oct 2006
Thank You DOWNOSEDIVE ! Well Said !
Denver
This is pathetic....
the writing is on the wall which is why volume is always low to the upside. Recession or slowdown on its way.
Everyone is cutting jobs.....err we all learned in grade 10 the easy sign of a recession comes from automobilers.....
Hedge funds ran the market up...playing stupid....
Why is oil down such a good thing? Doesnt that mean that the economy is slowing?? Especially with all those job cuts? OR is it that all the Americans have stopped buying SUV's and are cutting back....errr once again a grade 10 could figure this out.
Why not participate in this move up? Because people believe that it is not for real. Are companies about to report blowout earnings??NO. It is about to get worst as the homebuilders have been saying.
This is plain stupidity. Look at the volitility index......COMPLACENT ENOUGH???? pathetic. Nothing is wrong at all apparently.
Should this market be back near its highs??? Nope it shouldn't. This is eerily reminding me of 2000. Complacent.
denver im looking for a decline sometime in late oct to early november. IF we do get to 12,000 I think we wil forget about any year end rally since its taking place now. Wouldnt be suprised to see 12,000 then a sell-off going into the end of the year.
Trader 2006.
SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL OFFFFFFFFFFF
tRADER 2006.
nasdaq is losing STEAM!!!! up 8 points now, could be headed for the red in the next 30 mins.
Trader 2006.
Looking good BEARS. If the nasdaq loses steam and goes red which i think it may, it may be time to take out some shorts over the weekend....im going long my QID purchase for monday.
Trader 2006.
Trader 2006,
I'm "HOPEING" you're right.I've had my balls cut off the last six weeks and I need 'em back.We're selling off hard as I'm writing this.Today and next week could be interesting.Good luck to all !
Denver
if this nasdaq goes red expect a follow through for monday.
Trader 2006.
My Small Cap Swing indicator moved to a LONG signal early on 9/12/06. It has moved to +63 in just over 3 days. This is going to be a short-duration move (less than 4 days), probably moving back to SHORT by Friday close or Monday.
Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator:
. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg
08/28 . . +05 . .LONG . . +1.1% . . . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . .LONG . . +1.2% . . . . +2.3%
08/30 . . +39 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.1%
08/31 . . +48 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.1%
09/01 . . +52 . .LONG . . +0.1% . . . . +3.2%
09/05 . . +62 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +4.0%
09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%. . . . . -2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%. . . . . -2.9%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3% . . . . -2.6%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%. . . . . -2.7%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +54 . .LONG . ..-0.4% . . . . +2.8%
09/14 . . +63 . .LONG . . . 0.0% . Intraday @ 11:45am ET
Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)
The last LONG truncated at +62. This LONG signal is now at +63, meaning it will likely switch to SHORT any time now.
I am staying 100% invested in SHORT positions as of yesterday morning, feeling the switch to SHORT is imminent.
Bears just can not get any break!
We need some kind of suicide bears attack to this market!!
Anyone would like voluneteer??
oil dropping will be the excuse to a better economic outlook, this will push consumer spending even higher. Seemed like the consumer was spending at $40 a barrel, $45 a barrel, $50 a barrel, $60, $65, $70 even $75 a barrel. There was no slowdown in the economy with oil at $75, im sure if it went to $100 the consumer would still spend. People complain about $3.00 at the pump but they are still buying those $5.00 cups of coffee from starbucks.
Once you hear the predictions of oil going back to 10-15 bucks a barrel go long.
Trader 2006.
Next minor drop in the markets will take the nasdaq back to around 2185-2200, and the DOW back to 11450.
Looking for ndx 100 to touch 1600 sometime in the next 2 weeks.
Trader 2006.
they have taken the nasdaq down to intraday lows like 5 times today only to buy it right back up. People actually forgot what a down day feels like, I think today they will remember!!!!!!!
Trader 2006.
I smell a top......
S&P just about touched its may high....... START GETTING AGGRESIVE..... RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.
THis market has know more buying power......
Bring it down ....
@9:26,
Enough bears did that a few weeks ago. In fact a remember a poster of the name bull eater who sold his house (houses are gonna crash so why hold onto them right?) to buy more puts.
Needless to say I haven't seen him post here anymore. I hope he/she still has enough money for his/her internet connection... Oh wait housing is gonna crash, I guess we dont need the internet anymore!
-Drift Trade
Drift Trade housing is going to come down hard, cnbc lets you think everything is perfect, its not. Wait till next year when ARMS reset.
Trader 2006.
Nasdaq is officially in the RED.
Trader 2006.
All the MoFos who signed up for the interest only loans and the banks who gave them these loans WILL be the ONLY people not affected by the housing slow down.
It WILL affect all the poor souls who work hard and pay taxes to cover these bastards. That is how the system works.
So, when you see a person earning $20k per year gets a 1.5million loan for buying a house. You should be encourages by it and buy a 10million dollar house with no down payment. Otherwise the system will just fuck you.
All the MoFos who signed up for the interest only loans and the banks who gave them these loans WILL be the ONLY people not affected by the housing slow down.
The people who did the interest only loans WILL be affected.
Trader 2006.
Trader 2006, you are talking like a new born :-)
Looks like you are not aware of how the SYSTEM works. For the most part if defies common logic. Hence, it is very likely that the people with interest-only loans will be rescued somehow by the govt, by really fucking hard the people who did not take these Interest-only loans. Thats how it is.
Here's the problem:
All the active bears don't own stocks, they only hold options. If they held stocks and were now selling them, then the prices would fall.
We need some real investors who are willing to own stocks (even though they sell and buy frequently), rather than speculators playing options all the time.
So, all you bears, remember this the next time you cover your shorts and are ready to go long - buy some real stocks!
Volume remains light, with most stockholders willing to let the active traders (tip of the iceberg) drive up the prices while they sit idly by waiting for a better time to sell.
We are going to need some real stock market participation to see worthwhile declines/advances.
Well said Smallswinger !
Denver
Yes you have a point smallswinger. Most of us are aware of the lack of 'real' volume especially on the rare down days. Noone is going to buy shares if they are a bear. So what we are all rty to predict is when the bulls will sell their 'real' shares and then we ride the futures/options down alondside them. Let the sucker bulls enjoy their party, because they will sure throw up sooner or later. Nothing but nothing goes up forever...........bring on 1987 again
Observation re SPX
June 12, 20% of SPX was trading at or above 50 day MA.
Yesterday 78%
June 12, 45% of SPX was trading at or above 200 day MA
Yesterday 62%
That 20% or lower on the 50 day MA is a pretty good indicator to get long whereas the 78% is not necessary a short. Bottoms can be short, sharp affairs (not always) with fear while tops are generally a process.
bsi87
From:http://dayshark.blogspot.com/
Benet Sedacca at minyanville.com had an interesting take this morning on why he is reducing his equity exposure:
"Can the market go higher" Of course it can. To me, the risk/reward ratio is simply deteriorating to the extent that the downside risk now feels much greater than the upside potential. Sentiment is now heading towards extreme optimism. The seasonal pattern that everyone was positioned for and got wiped out with is now the pain trade but in reverse. In other words, people have seemingly given up hope on the September low theory. We think this pushes seasonality out to the future once everyone closes out the losing positions. Inflationary forces are being replaced with deflationary forces. Valuations are silly again. Volatility at ridiculous levels."
nice find 11:10am
Going to get interesting next week, PPI and FOMC meeting should be big market movers.
Trader 2006.
re:SLV
Intraday reversal. Volume appears to be at least average. Trading above open and previous day close at this time. I always buy too soon. Looks like a limit order at 105.81 with a trailing sell stop at 104.51 would be a low risk entry point. JMO, do your own homework.
re: PXP. Was a IBD Canslim pick,along with TNP, CCJ, and OMM.
Bought some of PXP.
bsi87
re:PEIX
Put this on your screens. My guess is that it bottoms Monday or Tuesday around 15 (the 20 day BB bottom) or at 14.73 (half of the Kangaroo tail reversal where it lifted off a month ago).
No position, do your own homework.
bsi87
traded QID about 8 times today, last position in at $62.05 and holding it over the weekend. Im taking a guess on 1600-1615 on the NDX 100 next week.
Trader 2006.
BSI traded PEIX only once for a swingtrade and man was i scared holding that thing over night. Last time I traded it it was in the mid 20's havent touched it since then.
Trader 2006.
Perfect time to buy some Puts on KBH and TOL. Could make some easy bucks next week.
Our friends (big boys) are trying hard to keep KBH above 45 to screw the Sept options.
does Tim Knight still work here?
This market just got boring.
sanjay when you say dip what are you talking about on the dow and nasdaq.
A dip to me is around 11350-11400 on the dow and 2150-2175 on the nasdaq.
Trader 2006.
"does Tim Knight still work here?"
Yep. I just have my regular job to do, though!
re: PEIX. T2006, with volatile stocks, you reduce position size and widen the stops.
Had a nice run from 15 to 20, all the energy bulls wet their pants and I sold my inventory to them.
bsi87
Post a Comment