Wanted: Clear Direction. Please!
The Dow was down 34 points today. Big deal. This market is so boring these days. There's just no direction. A little tug up. A little tug down. Intraday graphs are like spasms. The S&P 500 is basically exactly where it was when 2006 began. It went up a while. Then it went down a while. And now it's up a little. Zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Oh, before I forget, this blog is now part of the Ticker Sense poll. Thanks, guys! Is there a way to auto-click the Bearish radio button?
If you have the time and the interest, here's a fascinating (and long) article about large economic trends, particularly centered around debt and interest rates. Bottom line is that a recession is virtually a foregone conclusion.
Oh, one other thing. By happenstance, I found this KlipFolio product. Download it - it's free! And you can add your favorite blog (ahem) to it.
I have two standards for judging new software: does it work right/feel right immediately out of the box (the answer for Klip: yes!) And am I still using it in a couple of weeks? (We shall see!) I've sometimes become jazzed about stuff that I never touch again. Which means, to me, it's not useful. Klip seems awfully cool, though.
OK, on to charts. And there's a bunch of 'em today. Because I've got to believe the market will eventually snap out of this boring funk. And, if there's a God (or at least a sensible God), the market will fall big-time. So let's be prepared, Scouts.
HANS has been fascinating to me for a long time. It has bagged a nearly 10,000% gain over the past couple of years, and I think everyone on the planet is waiting for it to snap at some point. Here's the astonishing graph. Some people have become very, very rich on this stock:
Let's take a closer look. This graph is more recent, and it features two moving averages on the price graph as well as a moving average on the volume graph. Notice a few things. First, volume is really starting to soften on this stock. Second, the 50 day moving average hasn't crossed below the 100 day moving average in a very long time. I'd take this as a strong sell signal if it does. To be honest, I'm short the stock already. I guess I (foolishly) want to get in early on what I hope will happen.
I want to put the S&P graph up again simply because it's so beautiful. You can see all the drawn objects I've laid down on this graph. It would take an amazing amount of bull power (you can think of a more colorful term) to turn this market decisively upward. But it's happened before. The jury is still out right now. There are many strong forces at work that could rip the guts out of this market.
From here on out are graphs with stop prices. Simple. I think all of the following charts are optionable, so you might want to pick up puts. The stop price I cite is the price above which the position should be closed. First up: AMG 95.05
ATW 50.64
DIA 112.56
HUM 58.26
IYR 75.02
MER 73.50
MO 81
MON 43.86
OIH 152
Good luck! And, remember boys and girls, if you want to see a bigger graph, just click on any of the small images. Click Back to return to this blog. See ya....
15 comments:
I like this little tidbit of information from the published CPI data:
Purchasing Power of Consumer Dollar (1982-1984 = $1.00)………..$0.493 (50% loss in value)
Purchasing Power of Consumer Dollar (1967 = $1.00)……...………$0.165 (84% loss in value)
Inflation? What inflation??
I think what we saw in 2000-2002 was just a prequel to what's about to come. A fun little read for those who like 1929 idiot quotes is "Oh, Yeah?" from Trader's Press.
but then again you can make the same argument about the double bottom on the Dow and S&P and the same resistance level: when everyone can see something and expect the same thing then it probably isnt going to work.
plus all this talk about cosolidation and how its bullish, low volume after another low volume move like we had on friday is bearish and shows sign of a reversal if anything. no result occured, if you punch a guy square on and he doesnt go down, its gonna be a long fight and you probably will lose.
this market has no leadership, not even the hot energy sector is leading in the last 60 days. Yet the intelligence challenged bulls still want you to buy. Fukkem!! Use your head and price in all the risks out there, as it's obviouse the market has not taken full inventory of all the risks out there ... and the risks keep growing by the minute.
- Frank
Good comments in this section - 2 themes reocur - firstly the low volume behind the rally and secondly a more definate feeling that the market will drop any time now. Personally having monitored the DJA indices fore hours yesterday, I could see no sign of a further bullish push forward, just an apparent (and successful) attempt to restrain profit taking. However for todays run, I have a feeling that this ridculous and foundless false run up, has now finished at least for the time being............
Im not one to start up fights against my own people, fellow bears, but aren't we just regurgitating the same points over and over and over day by day, about why things should fall like gravity doesn't exist???
I honestly, would LOVE if things fall straight to the ground, because I think thats seems like the natural tendancy based on today's current events, but they haven't.
Actually, to be even more bold, I could care less if things started flying sky high, because all that means is changing positions, reversing spreads, and generating profits.
It doesn't matter.
But what does matter, is undecisivness. And to me, that is what is so frusterating.
No direction, and knee jerking spasms. and I think that makes it hard for any of us traders, because technicals and oscillators, and trendlines mean absolutely crap, if today it violates, and tomorrow it completely reverses.
Tim, how do you handle situations like this? Im sure many of us here are full time traders and use the stock market to generate liveable income, and that means having to make trades when times seem risky, and volatile. And despite how that sounds, we are able to do this by taking the less risky plays, and having to accept less than usual, but (highly-probable) profits.
How do some of you guys trade in these volatile times?
Interesting, so yesterday was resistance. Go bulls go . . .
Good charts today. Would be nice to see a few shorter term charts, I see a sideways pattern on the dow. Looks like the NAS is a big downward trend. See ya at lower lows. :)
Nice comments and quotes listed today. Keep on sharin'. Love the data.
Stockshaker:
First, I'd ask people who are giving advice what their return is before taking them too seriously... =} I've met money managers who consider themselves experts and agree that 6% annual return is excellent "in this market." I would say they don't know cr@p, but they consider me 'just lucky.' =}
I average at least a 20% return each month. It's definitely been more challenging the last couple of months. Before May I was rockin' with at least a 50%-100% return monthly, but those days are over for the time being... I also only trade the SPX.
I was/am an investools student and although I have to admit I outgrew most of their strategies a while ago, I am very thankful to them for my beginning education. It saved me a lot of grief and I still do use their Big Chart to see where the industry money is flowing (as a way to gage the overall economy and trend) and their market forecast tool still. I like to look to see when there will be a reversal cluster... I use the 1 year chart for my overall trend and the 10-day, 10 min. chart for signals to get in and get out, primarily.
I generally keep one longterm position one to two months out (currently bearish) and then watch the futures trading in the morning before it opens to figure if I'm a bull or bear that day and wait for the signals... The S&P futures have to be trading +/- 3 or more for me to get excited...
It's not a perfect system, but it's what works for me... =) I hope that helps!
Look at the anemic volume so far today, no direction is right!
Does anyone see a retest of the lows for the S&P, charts look a bit eager to buy during the last low, and volume was still a bit high. Anyone see a low volume re-test of the lows as was this last runup on low volume until tuesday next week, and then finally a breakout of the established range once the fed comes out with their decision.
Also, fridays JOBS report will be interesting and may be a catalyst to retest the lows, regardless of the outcome such as the GDP was a catalyst to retest the highs.
FYI - "Ticker Sense has updated the results of its Blogger Sentiment Poll for the week of July 31 - August 4. This week's poll saw an increase in bearish responses from 37.50% to 45.45%, even though the Dow had its largest one-week gain in two years. The percentage of "neutral" investment bloggers also dropped to a four-week low. As Ticker Sense points out, "We are starting to see a little more conviction from respondents also as the number of neutrals dropped below 20%." In previous polls, the percentage of investment bloggers who were "neutral" about the stock market was as high as 40%."
Gurus, any good short picks?
shawn m -
If the futures are trading big in one direction or another (+/- about 4.5, or more) then I'll generally just buy at market when it opens. I originally tried to use technical signals to get in but on a day when the majority of the move happens in the first five minutes (like today, futures were down 4.4) if you wait for the MACD and STO to top out, most often you miss out as the price just doesn't recover.
If the futures are trading +/- 2 to 4.5 then I'll usually wait for MACD and STO to top out/bottom out and then get in. I used to use the 3 and 10 MAs to time my entry and exits and I still do to some extent, but I seemed to get in or kicked out too early. The 7 and 15 MAs seem to do a little better, but really I only look to them for confirmation of what I'm seeing in the MACD and STO. Also, I look at the Adv/Dec. line to also judge the trend, but it's not much of a leading indicator...
If the futures are trading < 2, i may sit out for the day.
Of course, this is all mostly predicated on what the year chart is doing... I look to see what the MACDs and STO and trends are for my overall stance. I will trade against it, but only on a short term daily basis...
Pretty basic. I used the fancy stuff for a while, but I ended up overtrading my account. So now I've come full circle and stick to what's easy...
anyone use bollinger bands? the S&P is setting up for a good squeeze right now...
why is AAPL going up, when everything else is going down?
Guys, volume is low today.... I think the up move will finish at the fed meeting....
I just cleared out some puts and am sitting in cash until I find something interesting enough.
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