Friday, July 13, 2007

Is 14K Up Next?

On the whole, it was a great week for the bulls. The Dow, the S&P, the Major Market Index, and a host of others climbed to all-time, never-seen-before high prices. So where does it stop?

The Dow's high on June 1 was about 13,690. Its low on June 8th was about 13,250. That's a 440 point difference, and that's the approximate range of the rectangle out of which it just emerged. By traditional measurement, you take the high of 13,690 and add 440 points and get the target of 14,130. That's 223 points or 1.6% away. It won't take much to get us there.


The Russell pushed into new high territory, but by the slimmest of margins. I'm not sure I would call this a breakout on this particular index yet.


I rarely use arithmetic scale, but I am going to do so here on the S&P 500 to make a point. What I want you to see is the amazing drama that has taken place over the past quarter century, with the S&P exploding to a high in January 2000, collapsing terribly in a bear market, and then flying yet again to the prior high. Is this the mother of all double tops? Only time will tell. Although the bulls that visit this blog certainly would say no.


My puts on Baker Hughes (BHI) did well today. The oil service sector seems like it may be ready to drop a while.


Colgate Palmolive (CL) has tipped its hand by cracking beneath that supporting trendline. It also seems to be in the throes of a triple top. I'm going to buy puts on this Monday morning.


My CROX puts went up some today, as this high-flying stock actually eased a bit in an otherwise very strong market.


Chevron (CVX) printed a terrific shooting star candlestick today.


If you are dying to short (or buy puts) on a Dow stock, you could do worse than IBM.


My puts on Radio Shack (RSH) had a nice day too. It's pretty easy to see why. New highs on the market mean ecstasy without the need for batteries. Demand drops. Sales drop. Battery Club suffers.


Have a good weekend.

70 comments:

JakeGint said...

Holy crapoli, is that a real ad??

Not exactly for the Ladies Home Journal set....

Tim Knight said...

Apparently.

http://www.insearchofstupidity.com/m_collateral.htm

By the way, Jake; I can't believe you don't like Carlin. I mean, Christ, who do you think is funny? Jay Leno? Larry the Cable Guy? Sheesh.

newequity said...

You do not need to show the s&p chart with all those years. If you cut it down to size it looks much better and that is the chart us bulls look at. You will likely be out of capital by the time this bull market is over Tim. Good luck in this bull market that will not pullback until 2011 according to my research.

the crooked brief said...

A quick analysis. People are what they do not what they say.
The japanese kept interest at 1/2% this week hence the bull run.
Under Ben the FedRes has adopted an old economic strategy. Keep the $ low by keeping down interest rates and printing $s. Imports rise in price. consumers buy US goods. US companies borrow to re-tool and innovate. Some non US buy US firms. But as US firms can borrow from Japan at 1/2% to buy US firms too. The old right are happy.
Traditional economists and wealth controllers dislike inflation as it eats in to their personal wealth. But it invigorates an economy by moving economic power from capital to workers, ie from the old who live off savings to the young who work, are creative and innovotive.
Prediction. Growing inflation and slight to no rises in interest rates. US manufacturing booms with autos and solar technolgies leading the way. High tech defence and space spending grows. US stock prices bubble over years with periodic falls undermining the US markets as saving vehicles but making regular turnovers of management. Successful firms go to private equity until most are.

Brett said...

newequity-

I'm quite bullish right now, but I'm wondering what 'research' you've uncovered that is able to accurately forecast the market direction 4 years out. If it doesn't involve a crystal ball or a ouija board, please share it with me.

Oneway said...

Tim,

would you mind showing the FIB.EXTENSIONS for the S&P 500 now?

Please us the 1550-to-775 as the trading range. IE, total trading range is 775pts., ...

A measured move would be up to sandp2325

the crooked brief said...

These next few years are a time to make serious money as a small player. Next week. I don't know. Take it as it comes.

PS Is it a coincidence that the market rose the day before GE's results? Insider trading is a crime because so many are doing it.

PPS TTT come back. I thought your views interesting but not of use to my trading style.

JakeGint said...

No, I thought I made it clear that I don't like geezer humor. No Bob Hope, Jay Leno, Larry Whoever, late night comedy blah, blah blah.

No geezers who got by with "funny" thirty plus years ago because they were scatological and did schtick like "seven words you can't say on TV." Don't get me wrong, I'm not offended by blue humor... in fact I think Eddie Murphy's Raw is still probably one of the funniest bits of stand-up extant.

Creativity is key. You don't remember "Raw" for the repetitive f-bombs, but for the hilarious stories about Murphy's relatives trying to start a barbecue... (not coincidentally, the same figures that resuscitated his career some 20 years after w. "Nutty Professor" etc,).

We've mentioned Pythons, Chris Rock, Eddie Izzard, Borat...

the crooked brief said...

Bull market or bear is too simplistic. Better to think of corrections due to imbalance caused by the incompetence of the regulating authorities.

i.e. todays liquidity led bull market is wholly due to the failure of the japanese to set interest rates compatibile with the rest of the developed world.

MySnowPro said...

Many differences between 2000 and 2007, not the least of which there was a flood of new stock on the market, from every but who owned a .com address. Major oversupply of stocks to buy. Now, LBOS and supply getting pulled from the market. More dollars hitting the market to chase let stock.

Yes, I think will have a melt up. At least until the majority of the baby boomers retire and cut back on their spending. But when it does fall, look out below. I will be prepared.

Is that ad for real? Geez.

jon

TBA said...

I won't claim it to be helpful, but I've put up some RSI data on my site today...and some historical comparison charts.

Overbought?

21 Dow Stocks are in the top 20 percentile of their annual range, 15 in the top 10 percentile, and 11 in the top 3 PERCENTILE of the annual range. "It's all good, right?"

Santoli said it was liquidity or liquidation weeks ago.

As for the Yen, is something different? (long FXY)

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p73.gif

robert said...

'raw' by eddie murphy is a classic ' what have you done for me lately' great routine ......i'm really tired of this bulls**t market

Tim Knight said...

Hey, Gary,

Why can't you put together a COT graph this clear and simple like TBA? Although it isn't related to equities, it is something that a dolt like me can instantly understand.


http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p73.gif>

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p73.gif

Mike said...

Hmmmmm .... Bears turning into Bulls -- Market Averages powering into all time highs -- General Public going to get wind of it all and start talking about it.

Maybe it is time for a rest so I think I will get off of margin long and consider going to cash this week.

darksider said...

Ad is4 real and someone is mad as hell:

"Linux Journal features a photograph of a heavily lipsticked woman next to the headline "Don't feel bad. Our servers won't go down on you either." Small print goes on to suggest, "If your server isn't giving you what you want, call Qsol."

GraceNet, a group supporting women in high-tech, responded by slapping Qsol with a "DisGraceful Award" in advertising—a condemnation that's also been levied in recent months at RCN, Lik Sang International and E-Color. "It's offensive both to women and to potential male customers not to mention servers, which are gender neutral," says GraceNet founder Sylvia Paull. "The ad implies that its customers are men, and that these men aren't desirable enough to get a BLOW JOB."

Gary said...

Tim, A graph just doesn't help me when it comes to reading the COT report. Here's why. I'm just looking for an extreme. When I see that extreme it's usually a signal that the trend either has changed like Aug. last year and Mar of this year or it's a sign to start being cautious like the sell signal at the end of Nov. begining of Dec. Once I get the signal and enter the trade the other stuff is pretty much meaningless until I get the next extreme that says its time to go the other way. So there really is no point of looking at a graph since only two points will be of interest to me. Those being the buy signal and the sell signal.
Clear as mud huh?

Frank said...

Hey, Tim

Here's a link with COT information for the indicies, USD, Gold, Oil and VIX. Gary seems to be a longer term investor if he deal only with extremes, not a trader.

http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/

Frank

Gary said...

The COT is going to be pretty much useless for short term traders other than to confirm the larger intermediate trend.

Debbie Davis said...

At the above mentioned "Buy the Bottom" site, why are the Large traders and the Commercial traders almost always doing the opposite of each other. Is one assumed to be buying when the other is selling? How are you supposed to interpret it? Thanks!

zeus111 said...

A couple points about the market. We may be hitting resistance here by testing the 2000 highs but the S&P 500 earnings are almost double of what they were in 2000. Therefore the valuation this time around is not at the extreme levels it was in 2000. We can definitely push through these levels and go higher and I think we will. Also double tops are not defined intil they penetrate their neckline and that is 50% lower.

newequity said...

I personally see another 50-60% gain in the S&P before the real bear arrives. We are just now back to 2000 highs on S&P, 7 whole years have passed and bears have had ther fun. The market is so undervalued right now it's not even funny. Earnings growth will take the S&P up faster than the bears can cover in the next few months. Many people are just now back to break even from the tech bubble and are starting to put money to work with the cheap valuations currently. Keep shorting bears so you add fuel to the fire for us longs.

yuri said...

Just a quick technical note: the advance/decline line has been in a downtrend for a year - translation = fewer & fewer stocks are actually participating in this rally. This indicator has been spot-on in picking market tops, typically leading the market by 6-10 months. Not a healthy sign - a clear divergence.
Also, regarding sub-prime - there are some wildly divergent views as to the seriousness of this issue. What I do know is that much of this bad paper was scooped up by foreign banks/institutions. The amount of bad paper could reach into the hundreds of billions (the defaults have only just started and are NOT limited to residential loans, because the commercial defaults are potentially numerous). One morning, these institutions are going to wake up to find that the paper they are holding is only worth 10-20% of what they thought it was worth. I, for one, am looking forward to that moment. Yes, their markets are up more than ours, and many are in a position to comfortably absorb these tremendous losses - but, there will be many who will suffer greatly at the expense of Americans who over-stepped their financial means.

JakeGint said...

Yuri --

Ironically, that scenario (of a lot of bad mortgages ending up in foreign investment pools) argues for a lesser overall effect on our markets. Next to the replacement of the banks by more sophisticated, efficient and unregulated private and public capital markets, the globalization of capital flows has been one of the greatest succors to our cyclical pain.

beanie11111 said...

The subprime scare is already factored in the market, considering the bears talk about it almost EVERY day. It's really not that bad. I hardly see any home sales or foreclosure signs in the Bay Area where i live. In fact, i saw more of those signs back in 2003 than i see them now. So the "subprime mess" is really an exercise of futility in the bears' minds. They can't seem to come up with much else.

Being the chartist that Tim is, i'm sure he realizes by now that the bear charts' been busted thru, so the bears either have to go hibernatin or go long. Dow is at lifetime high. SP is at lifetime high. Now it remains for the Nasd to catch up.

I certainly don't mind crazy permabears on the loose because we need them to keep climbin the wall of worry. And, in fact, we have been climbin the Wall of Worry for 4 years now.

I think this is the last (and strongest) leg up of the greatest bull market the world has ever seen, and that i will ever see in my lifetime. After that, it won't be a pretty sight after 2012.

Good luck.

Gary said...

Debbie,
The large specs are trend followers and the commercials are regression to the mean traders. At the moment this pattern has been reversed. The lg specs are trying to pick a top and the big money is buying. Because the commercials control so much more money than the lg specs they just keep getting run over. Sometime in the future it will reverse and the specs will decide to just get with the flow. At that point the commercials will start selling to them. Without the commercial money coming into the market then we can start looking for the trend to end.

kapil khanna said...

See what can happen if a trader is biased in one direction. Usually says something about the individual - Strong & Stuborn personality.
Real change comes from acceptance of what is, not what we think should be.

miuab said...

Mother of all double tops. S&P 500 has a VERY interesting graph. Watch out below =)

Tim Knight said...

"The subprime scare is already factored in the market, considering the bears talk about it almost EVERY day. It's really not that bad. I hardly see any home sales or foreclosure signs in the Bay Area where i live."

What city are you in, Beanie?

Yes, the Bay Area is strong. I sold one of my houses back in March for a nice profit (I had bought it two years earlier, and frankly I sold it too cheap.....stupid) The high end is very strong. There are pockets of weakness, particularly in crummy or impoverished areas.

I don't really dwell on subprime in my analysis. It's already factored into the chart.

And, yes, I acknowledge the bullish breakout. I acknowledged it at once, and I said then, as I say now, that getting to Dow 14,100 or a bit above seems very possible now.

So let's get off the idea that all I ever see if a down day for the next day. I'm a chartist with - unfortunately - a personality strongly inclined to seeing a bearish future rather than a bullish one. But my speculative notions don't mean I can't articulate what a chart is saying for either the bullish or bearish case.

Mike said...

The bearish candlestick charts do not seem to be telling the truth in this bull market up to this point in time.

However, This chart is definetly one that looks to be toast so a short may be prudent here if we can get a rest in the averages.

HMSY

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=hmsy&time=&freq=

JJ2000426 said...

This is a nice article written by Eric Englund.

Cold fusion, which was once ridiculed, are now picking up more and more attention. Hundreds of scientists are researching it. It defies conventional logic but then the experimental result are none-deniable.

Why it's relevant? Because Cold Fusion must be done using the palladium metal, our metal of the 21st century. If Cold Fusion is successful, then palladium will become priceless!!!

And who is to say cold fusion is not real? A company called D2Fusion is going to release commercial products pretty soon. An average family will be able to use a cold fusion device to heat the house during winter. But it MUST consume palladium to make such a device.

Believe it or not!

Auto makers put tens of billions of dollars into a thing called hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. They spend the money and they used a technology which MUST USE palladium. Are they joking when they inject tens of billions of dollars?

So believe it or not! It's a palladium super bull!

SWC is the ONLY USA palladium producer, and operates the world's highest grade PGM mines. Incredible amount of money can be made in SWC if this palladium bull materializes.

Visit my blog and read discussions on palladium and SWC.

JakeGint said...

Holy crapoli, this SWC guy is making Tuna Can Tommy seem reserved and conciliatory.

Chris said...

Tim

I've drivin to many cities in the Bay Area, from the impoverished to the sickly wealthy like Larry Ellison's. All in all, there just aren't that that many 'For Sale' signs across the demographics. Strangely though, i see more new homes being built and more new home signs. Could be a remnant of yesterday's oversupply but i still see new homes actually being erected from the bottom up. 100% of the people i know now have a job.

I think this bull market marches on until 2012. I am very convince the bulls will die a terrible death after 2012. The reasons are severalfold.

1) This next leg up will probably be the most powerful rally we have ever seen. I believe it will be led ultimately by the alternative energy sector. The "most powerful" rally the world has ever seen will always in a horrible fate - after 2012.

2) Baby boomers will cash out of the markets in droves (and prepare for their retirement) when absolute euphoria hits the fan. The last ones out will work at McDonalds (if they even have openings then!).

3) 2012 is considered by many Astrological cultures as a time of (worldly?) devastation. The Mayans, for one, didn't have automobiles or airplanes at their time but they got some wickedly accurate astrology. In 2012, the planets will probably line up in some angle relative to each other, causing wicked electromagnetic energy disruptions across the solar system. Hey, if the moon causes high and low tides in our oceans, i'm pretty sure planetary alignments will affect our puny 75% water selves.

4) All the crap (national deficits, subprime, consumer credit, etc.) that the permabears are worried about now will probably take shape after 2012. God, i hope we don't end up with the next Great Depression (while the bears get to laugh all the way to the bank).

JakeGint said...

For those looking for a Wall of Worry to climb (as opposed to red rocks in 110 degree heat), here's something serious to think about.

Interesting that COT shows Tuesday positions... one day before a massive dollar v. yen drop on Wednesday. Kind of gives one pause... hmmmm. Anyway, the dollar's recovered back to 122 yen since then, so I'm not crying wolf just yet....

Possible Yen Unwinding?

wincity said...

Bears are running out of places to hide. Reading the comments here, you'd think this is a bull pumping station, not a fine bear blog. So much bull**** out there.

beanie11111 said...

CSUN:

Mr. Tingxiu Lu, Chairman and CEO of China Sunergy, commented: ''Our strong new product pipeline, which will include P-type selective emitter cells and N- type cells, and the exciting progress in commercializing the former, is giving us confidence that we will be one of the technology leaders in the years ahead. Furthermore, this will also help us address the raw material supply tightness that the industry is experiencing at the moment."

---


i feel it in my bones that CSUN is gonna run like JASO .

beanie11111 said...

CSUN has one of the most beautiful bottomed chart. TSL had it and it gave us a 12 bagger on those July 45 calls. I believe CSUN may be next.

Gary said...

Beanie,
Do any of these solar companies have a high earnings yield or a strong return on capital?

Gary said...

Beanie,
I've looked at a few of the solar plays now and they all appear to have very poor return on capital and a lousy earnings yield. They appear to be a fad just like the ethanol fad. I don't buy into fads. If I'm going to buy a company I want it to be making money not just dreams. Sooner or later the luster will fade when it becomes apparent these companies are never going to live up to the hype. Didn't we learn our lessons in 2000 about fads. If you want to buy energy buy FTO, HOC, MRO, XOM, CVX, etc etc. They are making money hand over fist.

JakeGint said...

Mr. Tingxiu Lu, Chairman and CEO of China Sunergy, commented: ''Our strong new product pipeline, which will include P-type selective emitter cells and N- type cells, and the exciting progress in commercializing the former, is giving us confidence that we will be one of the technology leaders in the years ahead... "

"Of course," he continued, "If this all proves to be a state subsidized fad along the lines of the American Dot Com Bubble, the Red Army will confiscate my company, and harvest my kidneys..."

JakeGint said...

BRG too expensive?

JakeGint said...

Beanz enthused:

CSUN has one of the most beautiful bottomed chart.

Bottomed?

Bottomed?

That chart doesn't even have two months of information on it yet, and you're claiming it's the most beautiful(ly) bottomed chart?

Let me guess, you got your TA books from the two dwarvish dudes who come on the tube about 3 am, with the yacht and the Eurasian babes in bikinis?

Gary said...

BRG has an earnings yield of almost 13%. That's pretty good. The return on capital is 49%. That's exceptional. A great company selling at a fairly cheap price. I like it. It doesn't appear to want to pullback and give me an entry though.

beanie11111 said...

gary,

don't be a fool. Solar is no ethanol. The problem with ethanols being an investment is that anyone with corn can pretty much make ethanol. Ethanol is ethanol. You can't make higher efficency super ethanol. It's not really a technology issue.

Solar cells, on the other hand, is all about technology, much like the semiconductor industry. Anybody can try to make solar cells but The companies with the best efficent solar cells at the least manufacturing cost will end up being the leaders. Around 20% efficiency (how much of the sun's ray gets converted into useful energy) is the current max. Several companies think that within the next 3-5 years they can produce solar cells that match grid cost parity. That will be huge!

The beauty of solar stocks is that they get to participate in BOTH the energy/oil rally as well as the technology rally!

Solar is no fad (nor is global warming), and ya gonna miss out on what i believe is the greatest bull market the world has ever seen.

beanie11111 said...

Jakegint,

Reading charts ain't just about advance/dec lines, fib retracements, supports/resistances, MACD, Stoch, history, etc. It also encompasses other things like sector/industry momentum, share floats, company specific news, revenue/earnings.

We'll just have to see how CSUN plays out. You could have said the same about TSL not having enough history but that didn't stop it from flyin from $42 to $70 in under 3 weeks.

beanie11111 said...

By the way, most of the solar stocks that have gone ipo this year are making money, lots of it, which is more than i can say for the internets of late 90's. The money these solar companies are making are short of spectacular. I've never seen such a phenomenon where you have a bunch of stocks of the same industry making so much money the first year of their ipo!!!!

Gary said...

Their earnings yield and return on capital are very poor. I don't buy these kind of companies. Granted the stock price may appreciate. I just don't take chances on poor companies. There are plenty of great companies to choose from that are making lots of money and are selling cheap. I'll leave the solar plays to someone else.

JakeGint said...

Beanz, ya know I'm just having you on.

But be careful with those high flying solars, and while you're contemplating those astrological market factors, keep in mind the story of Daedelus and his kid.

Tim Knight said...

Reading charts ain't just about advance/dec lines, fib retracements, supports/resistances, MACD, Stoch, history, etc. It also encompasses other things like sector/industry momentum, share floats, company specific news, revenue/earnings.

Blink. Revenue? Earnings? News?

That's like saying how important the bar mitzvahs ceremony is to the Christian faith. Reading charts is about charts. Period.

beanie11111 said...

Tim,

Although i respect your charting abilities, i beg to differ on what charting should encompass. By considering other things like sector/industry momentum, share floats, company specific news, revenue/earnings, etc., you get a more meaningful analysis on where the stock is headed, how high, and more importantly, when. This is particularly important to short term options trading. It's what allowed me to be more confident in picking those July 45 calls on TSL at that particular time to maximize returns. A pure chartist may never have agreed with that options play when the stock price was at $43; Instead, he might only buy those calls when TSL was above $58 and he may buy the call options expiring Sept or longer.

My overall analysis on CSUN tells me that the stock will likely soon do a parabolic run and that the only thing that can stop it are (1) a severe market correction or (2) some jerkoff analyst downgrades the stock to SELL or (3) something nasty happening right now (but yet to surface) to the company that materially affects their financials. Otherwise i think a JASO-style run is comin.

sam said...

Short term top today followed by 2 to 4 down days, then blast off to new highs. Target 14000 14200. Time July 24 - 27. Sammy.

Pierce said...

3) 2012 is considered by many Astrological cultures as a time of (worldly?) devastation. The Mayans, for one, didn't have automobiles or airplanes at their time but they got some wickedly accurate astrology. In 2012, the planets will probably line up in some angle relative to each other, causing wicked electromagnetic energy disruptions across the solar system. Hey, if the moon causes high and low tides in our oceans, i'm pretty sure planetary alignments will affect our puny 75% water selves.


When I read about the Mayan calendar several months ago I wondered how long it would be before I saw investment advice based on the fact that we are nearing the end of a 36,000 year galactic cycle. 4 more years of this bull before we enter a new cycle....a 36,000 year bear market lies ahead.

JakeGint said...

Are you saying the Decepticons are already among us?

robert said...

2012 the mayan calendar ends ......that's all ....it does not say dooms day thereafter....that's the spin .......one wise one said 'the dark period' ends , 1000 years of light , no wars......but the dark side will not give up so easily as we are seeing now .....

Market Speculator said...

Or maybe the Mayan who developed the calendar had too much to drink, passed out and lost the actual calendar....then had to rush to make a new one and thought he could end in the year 2012...?

niko said...

This is the kind of thing that drives me crazy about Beanie:

"The subprime scare is already factored in the market, considering the bears talk about it almost EVERY day. It's really not that bad. I hardly see any home sales or foreclosure signs in the Bay Area where i live. In fact, i saw more of those signs back in 2003 than i see them now. So the "subprime mess" is really an exercise of futility in the bears' minds. They can't seem to come up with much else."

PLEASE READ:

Bay Area Forclosures TRIPLE last year's average

I would love to blindly follow your 12 bagger options trades, but honestly, it looks like you do absolutely no research, make up facts, and then either get lucky, or just lie... I really hope you're doing as well as you claim, and that the market doesn't take it all back, but I just don't see your rationale outside of picking a hot sector and hoping it doesn't implode on your leverage.

JakeGint said...

Ruh roh.

Be careful Icarus! Be careful!

plunger said...

JakeGint said...

"Of course," he continued, "If this all proves to be a state subsidized fad along the lines of the American Dot Com Bubble, the Red Army will confiscate my company, and harvest my kidneys..."

3:20 PM "


They'll take him up to "candy mountain".

Thats funny as shit Jake.

plunger said...

beanie, Solar is a great "hype" sector to make some tremendous gains in , but as Gary said those companies are running on frenzy not real financials. Solar power costs @ 5x as much per KWH to produce as typical fossil fuel energy. The industry also states..

"..enterprising engineers are working hard to get solar power’s costs down, and expect it to be price-competitive with fossil fuels within 20 years.

20 years beanie. I would venture that ovewr half the companies your pumping here will be non-existant in five years,[or on the pink sheets] much less the twenty it will take for the public to actually move to solar for cost purposes. Remember, most of America's "green" only goes as far as their wallet.

yogi said...

What none of you seem to understand about chart reading is that all of that fundamental stuff is in the chart right in front of your nose. How to make heads or tales of it is another story.

AssetStrategists said...

Beanie and Plunger,

When I was in High School in the 70's (yeah, I'm dating myself), Solar was only 5 to 10 years away from being cost competitive! Oh, that would have made solar the king before 1990...

Honestly, I have a plan to mount some panels on my home. Let the trading corp pay for them to power my computers and gizmos then the corp can deduct the investment and my power is essentially FREE (after tax and a much shorter cost recovery period because of the tax benefits!)

Thomas said...

WFC
I am down on financial stocks (with you on COF, GS and LEH) and believe we may diverge against type and have a bull(ish) market without financials confirming. Indeed, I believe financials can melt down and it wouldn't have an effect on other sectors such as energy, pharma, services, industrial and ag. At least with the U.S., there are few truly capital intensive industries that desperately need capital. I've been itching for the chance to short Wells Fargo for years (they really f***ed me around when I had a mortgage through them in San Diego). This looks like a massive consolidation from August 2006 that will simply break down. Why? Their primary markets are getting shellacked: mortgage generation, mortgage servicing, big business lending. I think it breaks down and I'm looking for $29. Going for the short. The Aug 07 $35 puts and the Jan 08 $32.50 puts look interesting to me on a risk-reward. I know you go for vertiginous charts but getting 20%+ on a low volatility stock that's liquid as water over the next 6 months looks like pretty good to me. Unlike CROX, you won't get your dick ripped off. Want to short BAC too but not as technically ripe. That one should rally before it fades again.

john said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
maknak said...

tim:
any opinions on this chart: (QQQQ)
http://i16.tinypic.com/4qt20rs.png

Winace said...

Jeeze....... Is it not bad enough everyone blogs about everything NOT pertaining to charting? Now were adding astrology and Mayan calenders??? Promiscious animal lovers next??? Give me a break. On the topic though, IWM, finally, a chart that acted predictably and normal. Not to go against the grain, but todays market action brought many bearish signs to light. Can anyone explain the market open till 4:15 Friday? It moved Alot of hidden volume to the sell side. I have the feeling that a smoke and mirrors act is in the taking. Does anyone kow anyone that is bearish??? A thought to be pondered.

JakeGint said...

There's you, Timmah, and most of the Specs in the COT, Ace.

JakeGint said...

John.... wtf was that?

Seeing Tim criticized in every vernacular extant you've decided to put together your own little Samuel Beckett tribute?

Waiting for Tim's Bull?

Winace said...

The COT is bearish??? I couldn't read it due to the smudges and the fact that it was spinning before it disappeared.

Winace said...

I was using it for position sizing.

JakeGint said...

The Large Specs are bearish, Win. Not the COT.

You've been spinning all right....

Winace said...

You can see I follow it closely.