Monday, March 05, 2007

The Wow Starts Now

I read today's trading described as "erratic." That's an understatement. It was a madhouse. For most of the day, it seemed that the market wanted to freak out the final weak hands. But as if that weren't enough, at the final portion of the session, the daily lows were cracked, and the market plunged even further. All of which makes me angrier at myself for the $350,000 in profits I walked away from less than a week ago.

Those of you who took advantage of my New Zealand suggestion (made precisely at the top), send me some flowers or something! I mean, I nailed this thing totally on the head. Little did I know that this currency flux would be driving a worldwide plunge in equity markets.

Part of the freak-out today was from the continuing damage caused by feckless "flipper" real estate twits. Just take a look at sample financing company getting trashed.

My suggestion on BP continues to do well.

And Carnival, purveyor to obese, bored "travelers", continues to fall as well, as I've mentioned it would many times.

Take a look at the Fibs on the Greater China Fund. Looks like we're in for a bounce, doesn't it?

Lehman is just one example of many of stocks that seem to have had the air taken out of them but are reaching support levels. In this instance, based on Fib fans.

Another victim of the housing collapse - MTH. Once again, a short I suggested many, many points ago.

But today was just maddening, as I said. Look at SPY. The horizontal line shows what I thought would be the support level. In the morning, we started bouncing higher (as I imagine we will tomorrow morning). All day the market farted around. And then, as shown by the highlighted area, we got whacked.

One long idea for ya - UNP.

I've got to scoot. My equity puts have been doing fantastic. But I'm a complete moron for selling those index puts. Ugh. What a rotten feeling. I can only hope we get a nice fat bounce so I get a second chance. *Sniff*.


Leisa said...

"But I'm a complete moron for selling those index puts."

I'll consider my question from the other post, then, answered.

But, it is good to lock in gain, and I have no regrets!

Regarding the lost know better than anyone that you have to move on. The same discipline that you used that kept you out of those gains, probably kept you out of countless losses in the past.

Mhashe said...

Not to worry about your lost gains. Last month I purchased a massive number of IBM April 90 Puts averaged at $0.40 and sold them way too quickly at $0.85. C'est la vie

Although the US stock market is structurally unsound, bears will not get the collapse they're hoping for. As long as Crude oil is pegged to the USD, the inflationary practices of the treasury is being spread out to every global citizen, hence the FED can keep rates low or even cut rates if necessary without worrying about the growth of internal inflation. I'm looking at a 3% correction from these levels before buying long again.

z-stock said...

I still can’t get over the fact that you bailed on your put positions so quickly.
We’re all up here talking for two month’s that this market needs a 6% correction, and you bail at 2%. If I had been in the room with you, OR EVEN ON THE PHONE, my goodness.
I’d have been screaming my head off, HOLD HALF, SELL HALF… HOLD HALF, SELL HALF…
An even wiser person than me, Would have been telling you BUY MORE , BUY MORE.

z-stock said...

All I can say is… “ It’s just tradgical”. But, you probably did the right thing.

beanie11111 said...

We are 1/3 done with the correction, 2/3's to go.

beanie11111 said...

Greenspam gets blunt! lol

Greenspan Sees `One-Third Probability' of Recession This Year

By Craig Torres

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there's a ``one-third probability'' of a U.S. recession this year and that the current expansion won't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.

``We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result,'' Greenspan, 81, said in an interview yesterday at his office in downtown Washington. ``Ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal business cycle is much shorter'' and is likely to be this time, he added.

Mike B said...

Tim, love your blog. I've had your book on order at Amazon for a while, and they are finally shipping it. Can't wait to read it. I hope it has the same humor as your blog.

beanie11111 said...


see y'all at $110

Humble1 said...

Oh...I hope some stupid bears show up soon so I can make money off them too. Stupid bulls or stupid bears, makes no difference to me. I need them both for food.