Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Airport Quickie

OK, it's one of these again.....those times where I'm about to get on a plane,l but I feel a huge obligation to post something so it isn't too late!

Yesterday morning I wrote to say that a big bounce was bound to come soon. The market decided to freak everyone out yesterday instead, just to get rid of the remaining weak hands. Today the market ratcheted up in earnest.

I have a few graphs that support the idea that we're in for another leg down, but I'm not putting too much money on that notion. I bought a medium sized block of Russell 2000 puts near the high today.

But I could easily be convinced that it takes more than one day's rally to flush the bullishness out of the system. The market could absolutely head another 400 Dow points higher from here.

It's nice that the $VIX lost about 40% of its massive rise lately. That makes puts a little more reasonable. And I was happy to see a good, healthy triple-point rise in the Dow. But no promises!

They're yelling at me to get on board. Thanks for swinging by!

9 comments:

ken said...

Thanks Tim!

z-stock said...

I think it’s safe to short XLE wed afternoon.
I’m still bearish on XLE and that whole mess.
Wed. crude reports plus for oil and drawdowns for jet fuel and gasoline.

The drawdown part of the report gets the attention on Wed. and the Increase in crude supplies get the attention on Thurs.

Thurs oil prices head south, bringing XLE with it. Thus, Voila XLE falls and brings the SPY with it.

Also Fri, unemployment report. Market always down ahead of Fri employment report.
So it’s better than 50/50 money SPY gets devastated on Thurs.
z-stock

AssetStrategists said...

Tim,

You da man! Thanks for the airport quickie.

Would you be kind enough to tell us how you personally choose your puts--ITM, ATM, or OTM--how deep and how far out you like to go?

Hope you have a good trip and time to post those graphs. I keep a watch list of potential targets based on what you discuss. I always fill the graphs with my own lines to compare how you think with how I am learning to think...

Still waiting for Amazon to ship your book...

AssetStrategists

Rich Remick said...

Tim, I use java charts on prophet and I cant figure out how to put fib retracements am i missing something or is it not available? If not why not?

Louis said...

Tim - Just got your book this afternoon via Amazon. It looks to answer a lot of questions I have on charting. Thanks.

miamirenter said...

tim:
i think better short opportunities are abroad..
india.china.russia brazil etc
EEM puts
but better IBN puts (it tracks indian sensex pretty well) what do you think about IBN puts..

Market Speculator said...

Selling is accelerating into the close, not a terrific sign for those who thought we were going to really rally off these lows.

MID (S&P 400) only Index that I track is green...

Lackluster again!

Market Speculator

mde said...

I think the fibonacci should work for you. They work on my chart.

IM said...

The indices meandered throughout the day like a blind man. Tomorrow should be interesting.