Thursday, March 29, 2007

Charlie Don't Surf!

This is going to be one of those danged "airport posts" which are shorter than normal, since I am frantically typing prior to rushing onto my plane. Forgive me!

The markets were nice yesterday for us bears, although I wouldn't be surprised if we took a breather here for a bit. The NASDAQ 100 does a fair job of showing how tired this market is, possibly moving into our dreamed-of lower highs/lower lows scenario.


Perennial favorite Russell 2000 is resting on top of its Fib retracement, which could mean a bounce up today. I really need it to penetrate through this line to move to the next logical level.


Apple has been a powerhouse, but I think it's a great put candidate now. Oh, and by the way, my experience with AppleTV completely sucked. I returned it the next day. Disaster.


FDX is a great example of a failed bullish breakout. Look what has happened since its break journey above that horizontal line.


McDonalds as a short......I'm lovin' it.


Here are my current positions......actually, the screen wasn't big enough to show them all. As usual, put options are shown in bold. See ya this evening!

7 comments:

JakeGint said...

Tim,

Three semi technical questions...

1) One your $RUT chart, you show a very light blue line below the broken trend line. What's that for?

2) I am assuming you are short on everything in that list you provided, but I'm curious as to why you buy puts on some things and not on others. For example, I've bought puts (successfully) on AKAM a number of times recently, and yet it seems you'd rather short the stock... any reason?

3) You show Bear Stearns and Goldman twice in your list. Once on the main list and then a second time on the shorter list. What's that about?

One not so technical question: Is your family from Memphis, or was I misreading that prior post?

Thanks for your dedication,

Jake

mde said...

Wow, futures up big time across the board. Your stops should be taken out first thing. No need to respond timmy.

metrocard said...

Tim, thanks for the training over at TOS last night. The new Prophet charts rule!

sab63090 said...

tim:

I'm a bear also, but I've been wondering why you hang out at airports so much?

Are you on the run? Lol.

mde said...

he is busy promoting his book like most hypsters.

brettinsr said...

Tim- Thanks for the GS idea. I made $600 in literally under 60 seconds this morning on puts. I Bought the $220 Puts when the market opened up huge for $12.30, and was putting a sell order in for just the day at $12.90 (10 contracts). Before I could even check the chart, they both executed. I am waiting for it to rally again tomorrow on bogus data to get longer term puts in place.

All- Any thoughts on this market being the equivelent of the '01/'02 market... Short every rally? From a purely technical standpoint, I think 2/27 is going to show to be the turning point, not because of any economical reason, but due to the fact that many funds had banned shorting, and now they will short every rally, new short shares causing increased inventory. Down we go...

charttrader said...

Tim,

one of the problems with your charts is that you just draw one long term trend line and then say wow it's a short, example MCD, if you take the trouble to draw more intermediate 6-12 month trends you will see that MCD has a lot of support in the $43-44 area and so is poor short at best