Saturday, July 08, 2006

Post-It to Self: Short Everything!

Thanks, 3M, for helping take the market down Friday. I've mentioned MMM as a great short idea more than once. Glad it finally succumbed.

My disposition on the market has never been sunnier. I am shorting everything I can. Buying puts on everything I can. Owning nothing. My belief is the market is heading for a sustained, profound fall and my intent is to profit handsomely from its demise.

There are certain sectors that seem especially juicy for a fall. Oil services. Gold and Silver. And, to keep it simple, just the good ol' S&P 500. Here are all the positions on which I own puts (note to newbies: click on any image to see a much larger image):


Looking at the DIA with bearish goggles shows a well-formed head & shoulders:


You can see the same market as bullish, since there have been a trio of progressively higher highs. Even with this point of view, you can see the market is headed for some very serious resistance to overcome:


THe OEX chart is noted as:


Oil Services (OIH) have a ton of high-volume options, and thus represents another great put-buying opportunity given the state of this chart:


The S&P 500 is falling away beautifully from its median line:


XAU (Gold & Silver) looks at the top of a right shoulder on a forming head & shoulders pattern:


The XLE (oil sector) represents great opportunity for short selling in the stocks that comprise it, as well as the XLE (or OIH) itself:


CX:


Sugar water seller HANS seems primed for a fall:


TEX appears to have double-topped:


TXT:


This upcoming week should be thrilling. Good luck!

59 comments:

mike said...

Tim:

I have been brainwashed and agree with where you think we are in the market and I agree that the companies you have identified are good shorts. For what its worth Bill Cara, Glenn Neely (Neowave) and Robert McHugh (the last 2 put out a newsletter or email) all agree with your assessment. Hard fall, coming soon.

So far I am comfortable selling the stocks you identified short but don't know that I have the skills/knowledge to pick the right puts to buy.

Can you share some of the puts that would interest you (price/timeframe). Or, can others?

Thanks

MIke

mike said...

Tim:

I have been brainwashed and agree with where you think we are in the market and I agree that the companies you have identified are good shorts. For what its worth Bill Cara, Glenn Neely (Neowave) and Robert McHugh (the last 2 put out a newsletter or email) all agree with your assessment. Hard fall, coming soon.

So far I am comfortable selling the stocks you identified short but don't know that I have the skills/knowledge to pick the right puts to buy.

Can you share some of the puts that would interest you (price/timeframe). Or, can others?

Thanks

MIke

Tim Knight said...

Simply stated:

+ At least two months out (e.g. buy Augusts at this time)

+ Slightly in the money

+ Decent volume and open interest

Anonymous said...

Tim
Love your site..thanks loads.

Will your new release of prophet charts include pivot points and their resepective support resistance lines displayed on the charts? also, will we be able to pull up the NASDAQ advance-decline lind ($ADQ)?

Jim

Babak said...

Beer goggles or bearish goggles? lol

What you try to point out is in fact a *completed* head and shoulder formation on the Dow.

The left shoulder finished and the neckline was pierced (11,075). Price then fell to 10,700 for a measured move.

So the head and shoulder is finished. It completed itself and found support at previous levels.

As for your other bearish comments...I'll archive this post and come back to it in a few months :o)

Kapil Khanna said...

The short term trend has turned bearish and is now in alignment with the intermesiate trend (bearish). Good time to start shorting. Lets see if 10700 is breached or we have a higher bottom. GOOG also looks like a good short at these levels. Its doing higher lows but lower tops. Wont be against the market very long once we start falling.
Anybody know which Gold ETF can one buy puts on?

dsantos said...

I need to buy more puts!!! My diamonds are finally in the money... Let's get it on!!!!

Anonymous said...

You're probably right about gold and oil, but since when are they the entire market? Financials are doing fine, so are the consumer stocks, and interest rates look to have peaked out, judging by the TLT. Biotech is perking up. We could have a large rally when oil and gold go down and the rest of the market goes in the opposite direction.

Tim Knight said...

We're working on pivot points at this very moment.

And I didn't say gold and oil were the entire market. I simply pointed them out as fine examples of sectors to short. My index charts as a whole speak to the broader market.

jerry said...

since may 18 dow could be forming a reverse head and shoulder

Old Soldier said...

Tim,

I have been following your Blog for a several weeks now and have really found it to be chocked full of very helpful info - especially your personal picks and your comments on them.

After years of fighting the "Market" and trying to "force" it to do what I wanted it to do I adopted an asymmetric approach to my thinking. I now go with the flow - up/down/sideways. I am neither a bull nor a bear - simply a trader moving with the flow. I also learned to NOT be to technical and to stick with the obvious - the Trend, the Volume, and the Pattern(s) as the most important factors to my decision to trade or not. I am NOT married to ANY one stock and really do not care which one I trade just so long as it meets my criteria.

I rarely listen to the "talking heads" on the networks except to get a good laugh every once in a while. If they really knew what they were talking about they would NOT be wasting time talking about the "market" - they would be actively trading the flavor of the day and making money. They do help move the "market" by instilling either fear or fervor to the masses (wonder who really pays their salaries?).

I had already placed several Put Plays on some of your recommended stocks earlier this week and also expect a good movements (down) on them in the near future.

Keep up the outstanding work!!! Nothing like the truth to set you free!!! I hope your Blog can maintain a helpful, environment of exchange and learning and not turn into one where the destructive posters of the world will attempt to take control and move their agendas forward as has happened to so many other good ones in the past. You have your work cut out for you!!! Stay alert my friend!!!

Best Regards,

RB

jockgunter said...

Tim - Sure, many sectors display what could prove head&shoulders. Sure, the market may head down. But WHY short precious metals and oil?

They're different, and de-coupled from the stock market. If ppl lose confidence in major currencies, precious metals go up.

If there's an oil supply constraint or excess demand, oil goes up.

Isn't it safer to short other mainline market sectors?

Jock

Tim Knight said...

Old Soldier - thanks. Very kind words. I enjoy writing this blog, and I'll try to keep to the principles you outline.

Jockhunter, even if oil and gold are weird/different, I still love their charts. They could be graphs of wolf nipples for all I care - - I just want a good chart to trade.

Hurricane5 said...

Tim, I am posting so that I may educate you on the stock HANS. HANS hit all time highs this week. It closed friday $1.55 off its all time closing high which was made July 5th. On June 29th I said to buy HANS because it would pass $200 within the next 1-2 weeks. I was right. If you took my advice you would have made 12%. Aside from this, let me explain why your advice is wrong. It is not taking, "an awful lot of power to sustain these levels for HANS". The volume spikes are directly proportional to increases in the stocks price. The volume has spiked the past 7 trading days and the shares have skyrocketed. This is extremely bullish. If the stock were falling while the volume spiked, then that would be bearish. However, the opposite has occured. If you are shorting this stock you must close out your position immediately. I would love to hear of your reasoning of why this is primed for a fall? I believe I've presented a strong bullish case. Your argument is a bit weak. Another blowout quarter and hello $250.

Kapil Khanna said...

Technically HANS is not bearish by any means. It is showing signs of strength. I would have to agree with Huricane on that one. If you are shorting HANS you are trying to predict a top, not really trading in my opinion.
However NTRI looks weak and has more room on the downside play.

Declan Fallon said...

The cleanest opinion so far in favor of the bears. I am still in in favor of a little more upside from here - but this rally likely won't last much beyond a month (and less than the 2-3 months I thought we would get based on the relative position of market internals like the Bullish percent index and the Nasdaq Summation Index).

Nice work Tim

bsi87 said...

Buy bonds. IEF looks like it's reversing. No one likes 'em and if the market goes into recession (Helicopter Ben puts the economy or some companies thru the windshield to show his machismo and correct Greenie's mistakes), the Fed will be cutting by Xmas. JMO. Full disclosure, I have bonds in my portfolios.

Tim Knight said...

Kapil,

I confess, HANS isn't a bearish pattern. And my mentioning it as a potential short is really based on little more than "gee, this thing is ungodly high, and how can it possibly go any higher?" So not my best work, I confess (I stand by my other charts, though!)

So I'll give it to you (and 'cane) that this is an incredibly strong stock. It has defied the bears for a long, long time. Let's face it, and SOME point it's going to soften (no stock is a superstar forever), but technically speaking (ahem, the name of this blog) there's no concrete reason to short it.

dsantos said...

"wolf nipples" - I am cracking up over here. Thanks!! That is pretty funny. I am with you on that one Tim, I don't care what it is as long as it's tradable.

Mark said...

Very fun! The power of the Fib.

I had left my Fib lines up from Wed. and Thurs for the DOW. On Friday it paused at every one I had plotted and dropped down to the 38.2% Fib line drawn on data from 5/9 and 6/14.

There it did a little fish-hook action at the end of trading. Volume is still low, which is probably from people taking some much-needed vacation for the week.

I see the market in a crossroad depending on how people feel over the weekend. Is Friday just weakness over one company, and thus the earnings from the others fuel the market back up to make a double-top? Or will the bulls panic, afraid to loose some hard-earned-back cash?

Next line to cross down will be 10927.

Anonymous said...

Regarding bonds, now is not the time to start buying.

Wait until after the August hike and a clear indication of a pause before buying bonds.

Just my opinion.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

Where can I get a quote for wolf nipples?

bsi87 said...

Sorry, Tony.

You have to anticipate a bit. Opening a position when they're paying 5% isn't gonna make or break one's portfolio. Note the action of TLT off the May 10 mkt high to the June 12 low. They were buying 'em when the mkt was topping and selling them when there was fear.

Weekly chart also shows a reversal off this week's low.

Anonymous said...

Tim-- the head & shoulders pattern on the DIA is well-defined as you say, but it needs to be considered that it may have already played out/resolved. It broke below the neckline, dropped less than standard projections, but still significantly, and moved solidly back above the neckline. This market is full of h/s patterns, but so many have moved back above the right shoulder and overcome the bearish bias. While I am not by any means bullish on the market as a whole, I think it is very possible we make little progress in either direction over the next few months. The fall could well see something more dramatic.

downosedive said...

CAN YOU ALL, PLEEEEZE READ THIS....ON 6 JUNE 2006 ONE OF THE SITE I FOLLOW ISSUED A SELL NOTE ON THE DJA AT 10794. ON 7TH JULY 2006 AFTER MARKET CLOSED AND THE DJA HAD FALLEN 135 POINTS, THE SAME SITE ISSUED A BUY NOTE ON THE DJA AT 11090. NO EXPLANATION, JUST AN ABSOLUTE SIGNAL FROM THEIR CHART MODEL. NOW WHY WHY WHY, WOULD A SITE DO THIS AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON THE VERY DAY THAT THE MARKET HAD A BIG FALL AND APPEARED TO BE FIRMLY TRENDING LOWER. WHY? THERE IS NO REASON TO SUGGEST TAKING A LOSS OF 294 POINTS WHEN THE MARKET APPEARS TO BE HEADING DOWN BIG TIME......UNLESS THEY ARE SO SURE THEIR MODEL IS RIGHT, THAT THE DJA IS SO CERTAIN TO GO UP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS COMPANY WILL CEASE TO HAVE ANY FOLLOWERS IF IT HAS GOT THIS WRONG, SO WHY RISK SUCH A MAJOR DIRECTION CHANGE.....UNLESS ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN IT WILL GO UP? THIS FITS IN WITH ANONYMOUS COMMENT, AS ALWAYS HE IS WELL INFORMED WITH OPINIONS WORTH TAKING ON BOARD. iVE SAID IT A NUMBER OF TIMES DURING THE LAST WEEK OR MORE, I CANT HELP FEELING THE MARKET WILL GO UP - NOT FAST AND NOT TO CHALLENGE ITS PEAK, JUST MAYBE BELOW 11400, BUT THEN IT WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN ABOUT 11100 AND 11400 UNTIL SOMETHING KNOCKS IT OUT OF APATHY. AS ANON SAID I THINK IN TERMS OF OCT/NOV 2007. BY THE WAY WAIT UNTIL 2007 BEFORE CONSIDERING BONDS. SORRY TIM, BUT I THINK YOUR CONFIDENCE IN A FALL MAYBE OUT OF THE SHORT TERM TIMESCALE. A NUMBER OF THE REGS APPEASR TO BE THINKING ALONG THESE SIMILAR LINES BASED ON THE COMMENTS ATTACHED TO THIS PARTICULAR BLOG. ALL THIS IS ODD TO COME FROM ME, WHO IS NORMALLY SO BEARISH, UNTIL ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO

Anonymous said...

bsi, yes you could be right. But I'm still waiting for the right time to invest my paltry savings. It still doesn't look QUITE right just yet, that's all I'm saying.

I could be overly cautious, yes, but I'd prefer to see what happens before making my move.

I'm still waiting for gold to come back down. I'll be patient, there's a long way to the top for both the bond market and gold, so a few months here or there isn't going to make or break my investment, true.

But I'd rather wait it out. There's still a good chance that we hit 6% by year end for the FFR.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

I think these markets are headed lower, any rally is a chance to sell, I was saying this last week when the dow was in rally mode. Take profits when you can in this market. To many bears have gone to the bullish side since the last FOMC meeting. The chance of another rate hike in August is 100% in my opinion and a pause at 50%. This uncertainty is going to keep the markets very volatile. IF everyone is anticipating a pause at the August 8th meeting and the markets do not see one expect a huge market decline. Earnings are the only catalyst to lift this market. MMM already hurt the markets on Friday, who knows whats in store for this week especially with AA and GE reporting. The markets seemed very positive on the jobs data that was only off by 80,000 jobs which in the long term is not good news. They want to see a low jobs number and assume the federal reserve will be done raising. I dont agree. Bad news seems like good news and good news, bad news. I would not want to be 75-100% stocks right now. I think 50% stocks and 50% cash maybe your answer. If the markets get another push down expect them to go at least 3-5% lower than the last lows we saw in mid-june. I dont think the markets are done going down, to many negatives outweighing the positives.

G2006

Anonymous said...

tony 6% is given, no pause until early 2007 in my opinion. Imagine a pause in August only to see PPI and CPI still showing inflation, the markets would not be able to digest that. Federal Reserver going to 6%

G2006

Andrew M. said...

Tim:

I appreciate your site as much as the next person, and "promoted" it at the INVEStools seminar in Ft. Lauderdale last week.

I am concerned with shorting (puts) on any oil/energy stocks at the beginning of hurricane season. Last year I saw quite a few oil stocks jump when threatening storms headed for the Gulf. Combine that with the fact that so much oil production is located in unstable parts of the world that while technically ready for a fall, I am afraid of the biggest trade doomsdayer...news.

That being said, my June trades using your patterns was incredible. I hope to repeat that every month.

Can't wait to see the new Prophet.net software.

Hbarr said...

I think it's a little early to short the oils. They're all going be reporting great quarters, some will report record quarters even, like they did in April. I'd wait while they put their numbers out over the next two weeks and see if the market is selling the news or pushing them to higher highs.

If the rest of the market tumbles on the theme of a slowing economy, it'll pull the oils down on fears of demand destruction, but being the real leaders of this bull market they'll fall last.

bsi87 said...

re: Nosedive.

I think you should 1) quit reading other sites and 2) develop your own system/signals. Lot easier than depending on gurus or others' systems. And keep a trading log.

Tony: To each his own in his own way. I'm not talented enough to sell the tops or buy the bottoms. I'm just suggesting that bonds at over 5% isn't hateful and a few bonds actually improves risk adjusted returns.

G2006. Probability of a rate hike is 66%. See another employment report like the July report in August and guess what the probability will be.

hbarr: Boone Pickens has been on every frigging investment program talking up 80 dollar oil, that's a tell IMO. He was on 60 minutes in March/April talking up Canadian oil sands which was touted in the 70's, then abandoned when oil got cheap. It's like Dow 12,000 and when gold hit 720 (forecasts of 800-1000). Everyone talked about it and was loaded up for it, didn't happen.

OIH just made another lower high, 2nd since the big top in the spring. Yet oil is pushing 75 bucks. $3 gas is gonna hit consumption. If we see a concerted effort by central banks to hike rates, that's not gonna help worldwide oil consumption. Also note that oil bottomed on June 13 just like the mkts - it's supposed to be a negative correlation with the mkts. But it's not which sez to me that there's a higher amount of rotation thru sectors and a good deal of speculation about hurricanes, consumption, and N. Korea missiles. We'll know in the fullness of time. Grin

bsi87 said...

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Robert Drach, publisher of the "Drach Weekly Research Report" based in Tallahassee, Florida. Bob, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

ROBERT DRACH, PUBLISHER, "DRACH WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT": Hello Paul.

KANGAS: Good to see you again. The stock market of course has been a study in frustration. One day the Dow gains 70 or 80 points. The next day it gives it all back. It just seems to be running in place. How do you explain this?

DRACH: You can expect to see more of the same because it`s almost impossible for the market to get anything sustainable, especially on the upside against the Federal Reserve. So you ain`t seen nothing yet until they get done. You`re going to have the same choppy patterns.

KANGAS: When do you think they`ll pause? Is it in the near future, intermediate, or it`s going to go into the months and months and months.

DRACH: Well, they should now because it is important to keep in mind that the lag time, what you see now is when Fed funds were 4.25 percent, not 5.25 they just raised to. So this has to work its way through the pipeline. So they`re playing a very dangerous territory here because they`re already getting deceleration of the economy, housing and other areas.

KANGAS: Understood. When they do pause, do you think it will trigger a major rally in stocks?

DRACH: Yeah. Usually you`ll get a sharp rally, maybe 400 or 500 points, and then typically it will fall back down to where the Fed began because they start seeing the effects of the pipeline at the higher rates and there is still economic problems.

KANGAS: Uh-huh.

DRACH: You get a rally, get a pullback and then a more sustainable rally later.

KANGAS: So if you want to participate in the first rally, you better be nimble and get out on time before you get into the second one.

DRACH: Yeah and you want to be there in advance because it will spark pretty rapidly.

PB said...

To Downosedive:

selling at 10794 would've earned what? 94 points. So the buy at friday's level will get you 100 points, maybe a buck 50. So wait 'till it happens, then back up the truck on DEC DIA puts (or SP500's) 'cause come October, this market will be having a bad case of diarrhea! So Sept '06 might be the last rate hike. By the way don't expect the market to rally when gold and oil break down, as gold/oil will only get weak if/when we get the next recession. As for financials, stay away!!! (unless of course you are shorting)

P.S. I am still waiting for hurricane5 to give me a short, but all I hear from him is HANS, HANS, HANS. PLEASE!!!! give it up already

downosedive said...

pb - thanks for the reply. My point to this group was, why would anyone bother suggesting closing a DJA indices position at a loss when the market is heading in a direction that will erase the loss and will turn into profit if it continues to trend that way. The only answer, it that their modal has produced an absolute reversal and is now at buy, buy, buy. This may fit in with your comment and indeed many of the others here, including myself, that now seem to be targeting Sept onwards as the likely start of a sustained fall. In that case it may be possible to see the DJA rise between now and then (Sept onwards), in which case signalling a BUY note now may be the right thing to do even though in 2/3 months time, a sell note might then be issued instead = a potential profit in the interim period. Should we bears now be considering short term buys, before dumping sell orders at that later time period? Thoughts anyone?

Sanjay Sola said...

i'm bearish also. breakouts are failing now. and the new breakouts aren't very good. volumes are low.

The trading in the Asian market tells you to be careful. Japan traded in a 500 point range last night. even though it closed up, these wild erratic swings are not healthy.

The Dow continues to lead ahead of the Nasdaq. and last week we had 2 distribution days.

just too risky to go long.

cristri25 said...

need afternoon sell off.... plenty of 'bad news' floating around for it.

Anonymous said...

Yes, but unless you're careful, it can also be too risky to go short at this point.

Consider that unless there are more earnings warnings forthcoming, there can be no doubt that Q2 earnings will again be outstanding, so the market will yet again be bouyed up. I definitely don't see it surpassing 11,700, but then again, who knows for sure?

I successfully scalped some decent shorts for 2-3% gains or so in the last week, but the choppy market has forced me to stop out of a few others. There's just no CLEAR direction right now.

So I do agree that it's too risky to go long (and if I were to take a long position, it would only be for a VERY short time), but I also think that it's too risky to short right now.

I agree with Tim's approach of buying slightly in-the-money puts at least 2-3 months out. Some nice Oct'06 puts SHOULD be virtually no brainers at this point, especially for the majority of the Naz.

-Tony

PB said...

Ok, Q2 earnings shd be already priced in, right? Therefore, it's only future guidance that matters. So, if you think co's will surprise to the upside, then it will be a good time to sell them. Also, scaling into shorts right now makes the most sense. The rug can be pulled from underneath the market at any time. However, I seriously doubt that we will rocket to the upside, seems implausible.

P.S. BIDU has a nice gap to fill down to $65 (currently trades at $86)

Anonymous said...

pb, I would agree that GENERALLY, earnings would be priced by this time. But I don't agree in this particular case for Q2. The recent selloff has been harsh and has reduced investor expectations for earnings and guidance already. So unless earnings are BELOW estimates, I think the market goes higher nonetheless. Sure, forward guidance will ultimately reign supreme, but unless guidance is actually lowered, I still think the DESIRE for the market to go higher will win out in the short term and we could see a decent rally.

If you are long, this would be a perfect opportunity to get OUT of those positions. Certainly, no amount of "good news" in the bulk of the stocks in the market would cause me to take on new long positions now. But I don't see any particular reason just to "guess" at forward guidance or earnings disappointments and go short at this time.

You could scale into shorts, yes, but most trading methods don't allow for much room for error on the upside, in which case you would likely get stopped out very quickly in this market, especially if earnings do NOT disappoint and guidance is NOT lowered.

Any short play at this point would be based pure guesswork and would just put your capital at risk in the short term for no good reason. Some charts are shaping up for nice shorts or have already started rolling over, but any news or earnings surprises could easily reverse those trends. I still think that put options are the best bet. Yes, the market is undoubtedly going down. The big question is: when?

Just sharing my opinion. Good luck and please make your own trading decisions, don't rely on anyone else's advice, including mine.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

markets showing nothing at the moment, all weak, the nasdaq is leading the markets back down. The SOXX is going lower, no signs on any improvement in that sector. Would go long the SOXX in end of OCT early NOV after a big selloff.

Long PSQ and enjoying it...


G2006

bsi87 said...

JMO but after major MA's or trendline support was broken, the low risk time to short was on rallies up to the 50 DEMA. Most of the major indices broke trendline support in early May and major MA's in early June. Shorting an index is not as lucrative as shorting an individual issue but it can offset longs one may be holding and a gain when the mkts are flat to slightly up for the year is nothing to sneeze at. Staying in the game is the most important thing.

niko said...

Check out MEEVF right now. Trading with no spread. OCT 300 puts on MEE. Right now at $1.35 x $1.35.

Won't last!

niko said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
niko said...

Um, Oct 30 puts. The 300 puts would be a bit more expensive.

bsi87 said...

Still watching the DJIA neckline around 11058. That goes and Katy bar the door.

bsi87 said...

Now they're ringing the bell at the top for large cap value stocks

http://biz.yahoo.com/usat/060710/13633158.html

Anonymous said...

Wow, that HANS short would have paid a bundle today, eh?

:)


bsi: you don't think large cap value will hold up over the next year or so?? Why not?

cristri25 said...

LU just warned .... AA did not help

LET THEM SELL OFF BEGIN NOW ALREADY !

cristri25 said...

LU just warned .... AA did not help

LET THE SELL OFF BEGIN NOW ALREADY !

Brian said...

Tim--

Will we be able to chart wolf nipples on the new Prophet Charts? That would be hot.

Also, I notice the Dow is still above a 2 year trendline. the one it broke through on 6/7, toyed with a bit, then popped back up over on Fed day 6/29. S&P is over its trendline today as well. Both bounced off them...barely. But Naz and Naz 100 is underneath. This is conflicting signals. Best to wait until all indices confirm each other, right? Shouldn't take much weakness for Dow and S&P to break through (again).

bsi87 said...

anon,

When you can get 4% risk free on a govt bond and the economy appears like it's slowing, how do you think large cap value will perform?

Anonymous said...

Watch for the S&P to break its 200 day again and close below it. I think the trendline that you're talking about is below the 200-day, but I don't think it makes much difference. Once the 200-day goes, I think the trendline will be broken anyways.

AA's disappointment and LU's warning today should serve to put some serious heat on the market tomorrow. But this is what I was waiting for -- some confirmation for a clear direction. Unless something drastic happens overnight, I don't see the market rallying tomorrow.

And remember, the BoJ still has 10 trillion Yen to drain from the system! This Friday should prove VERY interesting.

Sorry if it seems that I'm going back and forth, but I'm really not. I just like to wait for confirmation before acting. And taking wild guesses at AA's earnings or trying to predict who will guide up or down, or warn(like LU), is not very reliable in this market (which seems to rally on just about anything nowadays).

AA and LU just added a bit more to the short side of the equation. Let's see if GE can follow through on Thursday and Japan will likely put the nail in the coffin on Friday.

-Tony

cristri25 said...

all missed

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060710/aftermarket_mover.html?.v=1

PB said...

the crap-daq always leads the dow and the sp500, 'cause that's where all the losers hide!!! ... it feels like somethings gonna crack soon, BIGTIME!!!

cristri25 said...

yeah i want a big 800 point sell off NOW>

Anonymous said...

Ok, here's one for everyone: EXPD

Since this board is mainly bearish, you should love that one as a short.

If you can figure out what's keeping that stock up in the air, I'd love to hear about it. The only thing I can possibly imagine is that it's 98% held by insiders and institutions, and they just aren't selling no matter what.

But by all standard measures of value, that stock is currently defying the laws of gravity and deserves to be shorted mercilessly.

-Tony

Hurricane5 said...

EXPD..has one of the most beautiful 15 years charts I have ever seen. Why in the world would you short a stock with that kind of chart? If I were just going to buy based on a chart then I would buy EXPD in a heartbeat. The stock has been rising on increased volume and this is very bullish . The company is obviously doing something right. I'm not sure why your looking to short stocks anyway. This is a bull market. It's best not to short stocks in a bull market. If your trying to make quick cash then buy some MOVI. Three things are going for the stock: 1st quarter, that pirates movie, and takover rumours. Or you could just buy EXPD instead of trying to short it. :)

PB said...

Hey hurricane5!
give us a short already damn it!!! The bull market has turned big-guy! But you were too busy pushing HANS on us to notice! I guess everything is okay there in la-la land where sugar-water trades over $200/share

P.S. Did you hear? HANS is to be included in the sp500! Buy it now while you can! hahhahaha!!!

Sanjay Sola said...

Market looks perfectly setup for the next leg down.

3M and Alcoa will drag the Dow down. Retail is weak: Starbux, Walmart, same stores numbers weren't good. Tech looks bad with EMC and LU warnings and all sorts of options scandals plaguing the semis.

Bear stocks are doing well: Clorox, utilities, food stocks etc.Market is near overbought and the Nasdaq is well below the 2150 level with 2 distribution days immediately following the rally day. The Dow is leading the market and there was nice divergence with the Dow in the green and the Nasdaq in the red.


Bank of Japan will raise interest rates soon, Fed still meets in August, and oil is in the $70's. steel stocks have definitely topped with Alcoa saying that next quarter won't be like this one.
so the metals will be weak. and housing,well you know the story on that one.

So the technicals came first and the fundamentals came second like usual.