Thursday, April 14, 2005

SPX Puts Go Mad (and so do I)


Well, this is proof that not every entry on this site is about how well my trades have gone!

I have been quite bearish on the market. A couple of days ago (yep, just two short days) I decided the market was getting oversold, so I cleared out of all my puts and shorts. In particular, I had a whole suite of puts on the SPX, two of which were April expirations (which was today).

Long story short, in the past two days, these things went up SIXTEEN fold. The biggest fish are those that get away, aren't they?

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Riding the bounces.


This may look phony, but honest, it's true. The market has been very volatile lately, and I've been fortunate enough to sense the turning points pretty well.

The graph shown here indicates my entry points (both short and long) for big index ETFS (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, IJR, MDY). I'm sort of on the sidelines for straight stock positions, but I'm making ample use of indexes. The bouncing up and down will eventually get broken (my belief is........to the downside) but for now it's good, clean fun. (Comment from the next day: yep, it got broken all right........to the downside.)

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Escape Hatch


I entered this morning completely short - about 30 different positions. Lots of puts, lots of shorts, lots of exposure. The market was dropping again, but I was getting the sense that very short-term, the drop in the market had played out. So in just a few minutes I covered every single position I had and went completely flat into cash.

As you can see from this graph, I exited at the arrow, and it's a good thing I did. Minutes from the last fed meeting sent the market flying skyward.