Thursday, June 07, 2007

Love So Deep, Kills You In Your Sleep

I'm no better. I just know I'm not any better of a person than any of the bulls that frequent this board.

When the market is roaring higher........when bears like me are getting slaughtered .........it's only natural that you gloat. You announce how the market is just going to keep going up forever. You wish for the destruction of all the bears. And you offer up reasons why It's Different This Time and there will never be a down market in your lifetime.

So - as the kids say, good on you, because I'm no better than that. The market is a battlefield. Wiser souls - of which many claim to be, but hardly any of them are - are truly neutral, and they position themselves to try to take advantage of the ebb and flow. Mere mortals, like your humble narrator, tend to be more dogmatic. History - and human nature - tend to make the vast majority of them bulls. And a vanishingly small number are bears. So - join hands around the campfire, and let's sing!

I hate you. You hate me. We're a trading family. With a big fat drop, and a knife from me to you. This one day, you get the screw.


So allow me to remind everyone of the disposition just four trading sessions ago. Last Friday, June 1st. Hardly a blip in time. The Dow had made another lifetime closing high. Let's review some of the comments offered up:

Permabull NewEquity wrote: I just bought 100 DIA calls mid-day for the ride back up through all time highs. No resistance at all and we should break 14k Dow in the next 3 weeks according to my tech analysis guy.

John (B) predicted, regarding the S&P 500, whose closing price today was 1490.72: "Putting these numbers in my model, the 500 fair value today is 2,300...and based on earnings for next year, fair value would be about 2,800."

And, lastly, Beanie11111 declared the bottom for a number of stocks: "...AKAM has bottomed...SBUX has bottomed.....WFMI has bottomed." As a follow-up, in the mere four days since that post, those stocks have declined 3.2%, 5.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. So I guess some people have different understanding of bottoms than others.

Suffice it to say, the past three days have been very good for me. Indeed, I had trouble deciding what charts to show, because they are all gorgeous. Every single one - every one - of my dozens of positions pushed way higher today. I even made some very profitable intraday option trades - both long and short! - with the Russell 2000.

The Dow fell 1.48% today. And, after the regular market closed, the ETFs on the indexes just kept falling. The DIA wound up down 1.96%.

I actually would not be surprised to see a very short, very sharp drop first thing in the morning followed by a rip-roaring push up. Looking at this channel, it seems to me the selling is a touch overdone (on the very short term) at this point. You hear me, fellers? I'm not saying we're going to enjoy another 4th day plunge. Nice as it would be.


Zooming in closer, you can see what I mean. Now, of course, all trendlines are eventually broken. And if the one shown here is decisively snapped, it could be a new ball game. But the past 11 months have made me paranoid, and although the last 3 days have been sensible, I still don't trust this market or its participants.


Akamai (AKAM) hasn't plunged as fast as I hoped, but it's doing OK. It's still a very nice pattern, and I've got some nice green on this one.


CSX is way the hell above its trendline, and it is sporting a cute little head and shoulders pattern to boot.


CVX would definitely pop up if the market strengthened, but that would just give me another opportunity to add to my bearish position.


I closed my Deere (DE) puts today at a nice profit. Not because I think the stock is going to be strong. But only because I'd like to re-enter them at a better price, assuming the market "recovers" some in the very short-term.


The Asian markets are having a touch of reality. My EWM (Malaysian market) short is doing nicely. I daresay the Asian markets will kind of freak out during their Friday session, which might make our Friday session interesting as well. But, if forced to bet, I'd say we'll probably close higher, Asian freakout and end-of-week jitters notwithstanding.


InfoSys (INFY) finally cracked its neckline, although it still seems to behave stronger than I'd like to see. Would you plunge, already?


JC Penney (JCP) - on which I bought puts yesterday - had a nice fall due to weak retail sales. Of course, a true break of this neckline - - - the pattern is only just forming now - - - would make these puts fantastically profitable.


Merrill Lynch (MER), along with my other investment bank shorts, soured (for the bulls) today.


Oh, a couple of final comments to two users before the video. TomTheTrader, please stop posting your URL. I consider that an ad, and I'm going to be more consistent about nuking comments that are ads in any way. And Gary - for goodness sake, we get it. COT, COT, COT. Message received and understood. Lordy. Oh, and as for you readers that only show up on big down days like this......shame on thee!

Anyway........

89 comments:

b.healed said...

if you didn't comment on COT, I was going to today...thanx for that. *smile* i find myself a little frustrated with AKAM right now. as soon as i got in is when it started this whole sideways mess. before may exp i bought a june put on it, i still wonder if that was too close cause theta has been killing me. i bought one OTM so there is practically no value left in it...i am thinking about staying to expiration because it would cost me more to get out of it right now then what it might to just stay in incase it decides to tumble. thoughts?

Tim Knight said...

For something like AKAM, I'd just short it. It's one of my few equity (as opposed to option) positions, because it is one of those things that can take a good long time to stew. And, goodness, I wouldn't own any June options of any kind now - - I am even shying away from July at this point.

Vic said...

What no posts yet. I guess the bulls are off licking their wounds. Thanks again Sensei Tim for your wisdom and profitable pattern prognostications. All heil to Ursa Majoris.(The Big Bear)I guess there was some capitulation late today to be continued in the morning with buying toward the end of day. Honor your stops to insure there is a next time.

Tim Knight said...

"What no posts yet. I guess the bulls are off licking their wounds."

I won't speculate on that.......wounds or otherwise.

Momo Fader said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Momo Fader said...

Tim, did you notice the large number of dip buyers posting here yesterday? You damned dip buyers have still not been sufficiently scalded! I see you are falling into that camp too a little Tim, if you're flipping between IWM puts and calls intraday.

There is STILL TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY AMONG THE BULLS!!!

Look at this chart, and tell me that we could not have just put in a "channel buster" and that the bottom of that channel is not a legitimate target.

QQQQ 3yr weekly channel

That would take us to high 30s on the Qs by end of summer, sort of like the mid-2006 sell-off. I think that is a higher probability trade than buying here and looking for 50.

Paul said...

Tim

Curious which broker you use? I currently have two accts -- Ameritrade and TradeStation -- I just starting looking at OptionHouse -- flat fee -- no per contract -- interesting -- any knowledge about these guys?

Thanks

Holdem or Foldem 德州牌手 said...

God is fair.

COT data last friday showed more short in change position.

Friday, SPX might have a rebounce, that is best time to short it. Next monday, 1987 crash is coming.

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, did you notice the large number of dip buyers posting here yesterday?"

Believe me, I'm the only one with balls big enough to post day in and day out, irrespective of how badly humiliated I may be feeling.

The others only post when the market happens to make them look good. They're gutless.

bh_prop said...

Clearly had some capitulation today with declining volume 16.5:1 over advancing and a adv/decl ratio of 10.7:1 negative. Just like Feb 27, came right from a vertical run up to new highs and came seemingly without warning. I got burned by Feb 27 because it got me bearish and I shorted retracements waiting for the other shoe to drop. Then it went vertical again. No strong opinion this time except that today reeked of capitulation as evidenced by ETF and futures selling in the 15 minutes post close.

newequity said...

Congratulation, well I have some new found respect for tim today as my 25k worth of June calls lost nearly 70% of their value in one day. I was up a few thousand and boom, wtf. You are correct about how no one really can predict a damn thing about the market direction. I just passed most of my gains for the year onto someone else, the cycle will hopefully come back around to me soon. This game is one that many lose and very few master. The losers today include me with over a tenth of my net worth gone. F&*( this.

Tim Knight said...

Wow.......NewEquity, you have some newfound respect from me too! It takes a strong person to admit when he's wrong. I've had to do it plenty. Hats off to you. Tomorrow could just as easily be up 200 points. We will see.

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim,

Since you are ad based I thought you wouldn't mind the URL but I think people know where to find me !!!! We sold the rest of our short position and left that out there for the bears to enjoy and then out of a desperate act ..had to sell our CSCO position to buy SDS in the final hour to get back to 60% long 40% short. You really had a nice day and I was getting bullish to soon and got hit with the "Bear Claw" I appreciate the fact that you and the other bears have had a losign day or two in the past 5 years and we are still Up nicely 4.1% since going short the markets via puts and Ultra shares ..we will probably bounce very nicely after the NSM earnings and we will see how long the 400 points down can hold..but congrats to the Bears ...I left you a few hours to soon!!!!

Tom

JakeGint said...

Tim opined:

Believe me, I'm the only one with balls big enough to post day in and day out, irrespective of how badly humiliated I may be feeling.

The others only post when the market happens to make them look good. They're gutless.


With all due respect to your gigantic clanking mansticles, NewEquity has been posting here all day. The only one I haven't seen is Mr. "I'm 100% Back Long Again" Tom.

Which is ironic, since I came here to give him kudos for his "short til Friday call."

But I guess he didn't listen his own call and only shorted til Thursday.

As for Gary, hell, you warned him off on his COT-illion.

________________

I was actually at an equity conference all day today, if you want some more irony (what timing!).

Actually came away with a strong yen for some Jack Daniels... or more so it's owner Brown Forman -- which will lead me to my next post--

Momo Fader said...

Tim I try to only post when I have something to say. The past two weeks have been not just humiliating but capitulatory. Thankfully I stood firm into large Mon-Tue losses, but nothing to chirp about here. Will admit that I'm still down for the year. But the fact that something finally took out the bid on this market makes me believe we may finally be creeping towards sanity.

It's hard to maintain a blog especially if you're hanging your dirty laundry out there for every clown to remark upon. You have the cohones my friend.

I would hardly call today capitulation. The end of the day was more like renewed selling and margin call liquidation. I've seen enough of these sell-offs to not expect much stabilizing between Fri - Mon. If you're looking for capitulation, set sights on mid-Monday or early Tuesday. The margin calls only gonna get worse IMHO. I think that a lot of those long positions were leveraged out the yin yang.

I would expect Asia to bleed tonight, and Europe to bleed yet again as well. Futures were as high as +53 when Shanghai was rallying last night. Let's see how they hold up in the face of global liquidation. Tomorrow could easily be as ugly as today. I see three-black-crows on the Dow chart. Ominous.

Dip Buyers must be continuously Scalded to learn the lessons that will eventually allow this market move to bottom. Even Cramer is not talking about buying the dip yet. He knows this market is going to come in some more.

JakeGint said...

Tim --

I came back and opened up my Options Express streamer, and tried like heck to pull up the symbol for Brown Forman B (the regularly traded, non-voting shares). No dice on the streamer.

So I call Options Xpress and say "what the flu?" They tell me, "we don't get any "Slash" stocks on our streamers or charts?"

I'm like: So I can't pull up BRK/A?? Never mind Brown Forman, a close to $9 bn market cap company (and a seriously sweet long term investment, I might add), but BRK/A is gigantass!

They're like: talk to our streamer/chart provider.

I said: So whose zat??

They're like: That bastage Tim Knight at Prophet.

(No, not really, that's just me dramatizing it up)

So I say: Gethafluckouttaheah?? Tim Knight?? The technichal chart meister??

They're like: One and the same. He's not been the same since he went all Gore Vidal on us, book touring, etc.

(No, not really).

So they promised they'd call up Prophet, and told 'em I'd give you an earful. I mean, what the heck? The code doesn't recognize the "/" symbol? How many lines of code would it take to remedy that problem? Two?

bh_prop said...

Momo:

Say what you want, but today's tape was anything but routine selling. And I imagine the whole world expects a lower open tomorrow. Know what? Maybe they get it. The consensus call is open lower, close higher tomorrow. Surprise would be open lower, close lower yet again. Or open higher, close higher would also be a surprise. The bear blogs were filled with lots of posts today, they want to make sure the dip buyers got the message that they were wrong today. Sentiment sure went into the crapper in 3 days time . . .

JakeGint said...

Oh, and w/ regard to the recent cultural conversations:

Plunger -- I don't know how in the world you could ever ... and I mean ever, compare the Pythons' genius with the hoochie coochie ancient mariner Victoriana schitck of Bennie Hill. I mean, they are at absolute separate poles of the universe. No, they are on different temporal planes, that's how far apart they are...

Seriously... sped up boob jokes vs. the Philosopher's Olympics? vs. The "You Were Lucky" skit?? I'm baffled.

_________________

And Tim, yeah... the Talking Heads were one of my favorite groups when I was 13. Apologies that I've not been keeping up on their latest. I'm old and have many children, and most of my twenties were sucked away by too much work on other people's mergers.

I know, I know, excuses, excuses...

JakeGint said...

Bh--

Wasn't sentiment already bearish??

Or are you saying it's turned bullish? Please clarify.

Tim Knight said...

JakeGint - make like your girlfriend and use the period.

Tim Knight said...

I must concur with JakeGint's take on humor. I enjoyed Benny Hill immensely when I was 13/14........it was the closest I was able to get to seeing a woman naked :-) Monty Python's TV shows were pretty good and stand the test of time. About 10% of it is flat-out brilliant.

As for my broker - - sorry, that's a little too personal. Kinda. Long story.

Leisa said...

Toshi, congrats on your perseverance and your continued posting even in the face of the d. h.'s who delighted in ridicule.

Tim Knight said...

Leisa - long time! Good to hear your virtual voice again. I have deep reverence for any mom who can make effective use of the word dickhead.

JakeGint said...

Make like my... and... whaatt???


Ohhhhh geez, you tech geeks. All that good will you've stored up with the womenses who infrequent this place and now look what you've done.

(sigh)

_____________

Are you saying use the period instead of the slash?? Because I've done that... and it doesn't work for the streamer page (it does for the charts). They said you guys do the streamer page too. A fabulation?

Leisa said...

I still read every day. I've been felled with a terrible sinus infection so brain power and posting has been limited. I did buy a fistful HON puts today--Sep 57.5. I also shorted SCS. They've had a mini-rally, the stock buyback ended April 30 and office furniture in a slowing economy is not a fun place to be (I've been there--it took years off my life). But, I've been wrong before.... If you had to look at the chart and opine, I'd be grateful.

plunger said...

jake,

I wasn't comparing benny and MP, just the genre of english wit. They are all the same, granted some better than others, but dry, simple humor. The MP movies were some of the best, but the show was for stoners. Same with black adder and BH.

But Carlin? C'mon, he's a man among boys with the english and most american comics as well.

...and now for something completely different.

Edwardo said...

Yes, some folks can predict accurately, but they can't do it consistently. You never know when someone's seeming ability to call a market is kaput and that's the rub. The equity fiesta is over folks; it doesn't matter if there is rally from where ever the lows come on this nasty, nasty decline. The next major rally, starting later this summer will be the sell of a lifetime. Everything else is just noise.

Tim Knight said...

"Since you are ad based....."

Don't get the impression that I'm rolling around naked in a bathtub of cash from the ads here. The revenue is something like three bucks a day. The only reason I use AdSense, frankly, is because I'm really interested in the traffic data.

IM said...

Its funny how the last 3 sessions wipe out over 3 weeks of gains. The bear really does go out the window. One thing to note about today was the lack of 'panic selling'. Just slow and steady selling throughout. Looks to me like the big institutions are leaving. Maybe tomorrows COT will shed more light.

Leisa said...

"rolling around naked in a bathtub "

I've got goosebumps (apologies to your wife).

Regarding comedians--I rarely watch standup, but remember way back when when Saturday Night Live was "must see"? I'm too old to stay up for it anymore, and I'm not familiar with any of the player now. Some of the stuff on Mad TV is a hoot, and I do enjoy Carlos Mencia's show Mind of Mencia.

SimpleTrade said...

What I learned from this market, you're better off to play only one side: short or long. And you need to sell into rallies and buy on weakness, but it's really hard to do that. I held many my ultra short ETFs too long, and sold them as losing positions.
Anyone who can predict a top or market turn has more luck than skill.
I expect a small bounce with further down coming in the next few weeks. 10%-15% drop in S%P500 is my target.

Gary said...

Contrary to popular belief I'm not afraid to post when the market goes against me. I'm well aware that there are 2 sides to the market and I try to trade both. Believe me if the COT shows a big swing to the short side tomorrow I will be the biggest bear on here. However at the moment it's still long so I've got to assume that we will in fact put in a bottom and head higher eventually. I don't leverage my account with crazy options buying so when the market drops 3% in a week it doesn't hurt me especially since its still up 3.6% from when I got the buy signal.

Tim Knight said...

In the news tonight........Gary mentioned the COT. Plus - flash! - Kennedy motorcade fired upon in Dallas!

As for 3 weeks of bulls being wiped out by 3 days of bears. Yep. That's why I (sometimes) love being a bear. Because I have little patience. It's nice to see the cash rack up fast.

Tim Knight said...

"rolling around naked in a bathtub...I've got goosebumps (apologies to your wife)."

I daresay your reaction is caused less by being aroused at the thought of me naked and more at the moneylust elicited by the knowledge that I make literally hundreds upon hundreds of dollars each year with this blog. It's true. Waiter! Coffee all around! I'm buyin'!

b.healed said...

hey thanx for the akam wisdom. in addition to your book (which admittedly I have yet to read) what would you recommend reading that would give good wisdom in deciding between equities or options as well as some good stop placements. i have stop placement rules, but i am having a hard time fine tuning them

Tim Knight said...

"what would you recommend reading that would give good wisdom in deciding between equities or options as well as some good stop placements."

I prefer options if:

+ The price of the equity is high, meaning the change in the put value can get into the hundreds of percent

+ the bid/ask spread on the put is reasonable (like a dime or twenty cents)

+ decent volume/open interest

+ the stock is wayyyyyyyyyy extended (in either direction)

4profit said...

Tim, What do you think about aapl now and have you looked at crox?

Dennis said...

I covered my shorts (KBH, TOL) and went long (GOOG, NSM) toward the end today because Bill Gross, the bond king, said today that the 10 year bond will hit 6.5%. Bill's track record recently is horrible. He predicted the DOW would hit 5000 in 2002 and last year predicted that the 10 year bond would hit 3%. So I am betting against him right now.

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, What do you think about aapl now and have you looked at crox?"

I got stopped out of CROX looooooooooong ago. Same with AAPL.

I am inclined to short AAPL once iPhone mania reaches an utter frenzy. Buy the rumor, sell the news, right?

4profit said...

Tim- just look at them again.

Gary said...

Tim,
Shall I just call it my buy and sell signal from now on. Since you seem to have something against the three letters that stand for the Commitment of traders report. :)

wincity said...

Good song, Tim. Did you write it yourself?

.Net Guy said...

Tim, can you share your technique for screening stocks that are likely to drop? I understand the techniques once you have identified candidates (far above 50 DMA, head and shoulders, etc.). But how do you identify candidates in the first place?

beanie11111 said...

Congrats bears! The bulls gotta hand you a bone once in awhile to keep ya in the game.

The world markets are crashing and will likely continue for some time. The USA selloff is in sympathy to the rest of the world, as well as being overextended in its rising. The question is whether US market will follow them to the abyss. Even if it does, the USA correction will not last for more than 3 months. It may end up being very quick but very sharp.

On Friday, I think we go down early morning and go lower at the close and bounce on Monday.

AKAM, SBUX, WFMI have all bottomed at the lower bottom range. I have told my people to look into AKAM when it was near 42, SBUX near 29, and WFMI slightly below 40. I still consider them at bottom at current levels. A better way to put it is AKAM has bottomed at low 40's, SBUX has bottomed at the very high 20's, and WFMI has bottomed in the very high $30's.

-AKAM has major support at 41.
-SBUX has major support at 28. (It's at 27 now, but give it one more day to right itself.)
-WFMI has major support at 38.

-YHOO is also at bottom.
-AMGN already bounced off the bottom.
-DNA is at bottom.
-AMD is essentially at bottom.
-BRCM is at bottom.
-CSCO is near bottom.
-MOT is near bottom.
-DIS is near bottom.
-EBAY is 2 points near bottom.

etc.

So many decent companies are showing stock prices near intermediate bottoms that i don't think the market is headed that much lower. It would take an extraordinary worldwide event to precipitate a crash-like situation that could break bottoms for these stocks. Ben Benanke not cutting interest rates this year is NOT enough of a good reason for a bear market! Perhaps a severe global techonic plate slippage, that causes the deaths of millions, might. Or maybe some big news coming from China might.

Tim Knight said...

"Shall I just call it my buy and sell signal from now on. "

Nah, Gary. That's OK. On your own web site is fine. It's nothing personal by the way. Believe me, I'm not the only one who noticed. Several people emailed me directly - which is unprecedented - to thank me for saying something.

John said...

I am humbled and embarrassed. I have no defense except to say the carnage in the bond market was much worse.

The 25 basis point increase in yields during the same time should have caused the value of the S&P to fall by almost 40 points.

Hummm...S&P on 5/31 was 1530, now 1490...sounds like 40 points to me.

The bigger concern is if the rise in rates is perceived to have a slowing effect on the economy and instead of 12% growth as predicted by S&P it comes in at 5%, now you could be talking about 100's of S&P points.

Humble1 said...

So, are all the bears taking their new found cash.... buying calls today?

Gary said...

Tim,
When the commitment flips to short, which it eventually will and I use it to try and convert the permabulls to the short side will you still be sick and tired of hearing about it and will you then be willing to take a look. Surprising enough if you will look back at your posts pre Feb. 27 you will find me posting bearish comments and citing the Commitment report as my reason for being so. I don't recall anybody being bothered when the report confirmed their bias at the time. Why must anybody be a perma anything? Just trade both sides of the market.

JakeGint said...

Frankly, I don't see what the big deal is... Gary's giving out a piece of information that looks like it's pretty darn relevant to the conversation (never mind his additional relevant comments)-- so why the biatching?

Tim Knight said...

"Frankly, I don't see what the big deal is... Gary's giving out a piece of information that looks like it's pretty darn relevant to the conversation (never mind his additional relevant comments)-- so why the biatching?"

Look, don't get me wrong. Frankly Garry seems like one of the more erudite and intelligent contributors. And I think his COT information probably has a ton of merit.

It's just that we don't have to hear about it every friggin' day. That's the only point I was trying to make.

But, to be clear, Gary seems like a sharp trader. He's certainly got me beat, believe me.

beanie11111 said...

Short AKAM at your peril. It has already bottomed.

JakeGint said...

Another comedic aside:

If you've not been a party to the genius of Monty Python, check this out, one of my favorite skits, called "The Four Yorkshireman" (or, the "Your were lucky!" skit, as my roomgroup used to call it).

Tim if you can find the Youtube of it, the actual acting out of it is of course even better:

Monty Python's Four Yorkshiremen

Definitely NOT Bennie Hill

beanie11111 said...

Very interesting dichotomy here. The traders are telling me we aren't done selling. The world markets collapse is telling me we not done selling. Even my astrologer is saying we're not done selling. Yet when i look at alot of stocks (that are not current leaders) they are telling me that we are done selling essentially as of yesterday.

stay tuned....

Market Speculator said...

I've oftened wondered if I could put together a map of where Permabears and Permabulls lived what that would look like.

When was our last significant correction? Over 4 freakin years ago...at some point, maybe now or later we'll get our nice little 15-20% correction. Nazzy and S&P 500 getting support on their 50dma...

Lovely battle going on here.

"Therefore, the important thing in doing battle is victory, not protracted warfare" - Sun Tzu

Gary said...

Beanie,
Just a guess. The market is severely short term oversold so I'm guessing we get a bounce. But I have a feeling that there is some more selling to come yet.

Thomas said...

beanie 111 shows more wishful thinking than good structural technicals. He's also using "bottom" as a synonym for near-term support. I see few stocks on his list that exhibit strong, multi-year support. Much less bottoms.

Read Bulkowski and get to know your technicals, pal!

Beanie111's comments in quotes:

1. "SBUX has major support at 28. (It's at 27 now, but give it one more day to right itself.)"

Whatever. SBUX has been in a corrective or bear trend since May 2006. It's broken every major support line since. Sure $28 looks like support but that's only because it was resistance way back in mid 2005. That level looks flimsy and appears already broken. My price target on SBUX is $23. You may get a rally back to $30 but that's all you get all those support levels are now resistance.

2. "-AMGN already bounced off the bottom."

You have an iterim bottom here. I would start shorting again in low-mid $60's, if possible. You don't want to miss this one. It won't fill the $70 gap. That's a lot of resistance. Volume and price action is distributive. That $55 level is only a line in the sand and it will break through on the bottom.

3. "DNA is at bottom."

I'm long this one and you can actually say that this is at an interim bottom. I guess you can get one right but wishful thinking isn't the way to go about it. The support level on this one is a range between $75 and $80 and goes back as long as two years. It is testing the lower end of that support.

4. "-AMD is essentially at bottom."

Hey, he calls one right. Wouldn't be buying this until it's into its TMAP though. Showing nascent signs of recovery.


5. "-BRCM is at bottom."

Again, not a bottom. At a 6 month long support level that it has touched only once. Worried about this one because I'm long. Like the semi's in general, though.

6. "-CSCO is near bottom."

Just a dumb thing to say. Shows you are careless. Or one of those cheerleaders. Dude, it's at its 100day EMA without any volume support and in the November gap. It's not even an historical support line.

7. "--DIS is near bottom."

Not thinking on this one. Wrong.

8. "-EBAY is 2 points near bottom."

Careless. Count much? I can recommend "One Fish, Two Fish, Red Fish, Blue Fish."

Best,
Tom

beanie11111 said...

AKAM is on fire! This bottom is so bottom that i can't find another better bottom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol

beanie11111 said...

oh Thomas, live and learn.

newequity said...

Back in business. I decided to get back in the JUL Calls with twice the contracts. My confidence is back and better than ever. Already made back some of my losses from yesterday.

JakeGint said...

Tom,

What do the beat poets know about technical analysis anyway?

*********




**********



*****



*********


heh.

beanie11111 said...

Jim Cramer is now telling his people to take profits.

If you believe in contrarian investing, you might take that as a cue to buy buy buy.

After making a list of the 4 Horsemen, the market got pulverized. After 3 huge down days, he says to sell.

How will YOU play this beautiful game?

downosedive said...

gary
Do continue to post COT data immediately it changes or indeed just to confirm it hasnt changed. I for one greatly appreciate your sharing detailed intelligent thoughts and I dont care how many days you repeat COT, if it saves my ass from further damage Im greatly appreciative. So keep on posting here. Anything you say can be read and accepted or rejected by others - but at least you are giving us something to think about, which is more than the bland comments others come up with, including myself! Carry on mate!!

Gary said...

Thanks nose dive,
I hope you trimmed your position size and are now back to thinking clearly and investing with sound rules again. I know you know them. We all forget from time to time or just get caught up in the moment. I guess that's what makes us human. I saw panic in 2 places yesterday. Obviously the stock market and also in the bond market. Panic ALWAYS creates opportunities. Keep your powder dry and when the selling dries up it will be time add to those positions. Unless of course something has changed with what the big boys are doing with their money.

JakeGint said...

T-money,

I had a friend (fellow devotee) send me the U-tube of the Four Yorkshireman. Undoubtedly one of MP's best. Click to judge for y'self:

Monty Python's "Four Yorkshiremen"

And no, Nosedive, it's not the COT report, but I'm doing everything I can to assuage the (hopefully short term) pain.

downosedive said...

gary
Thanks for the comments and indeed that where i will be extremely greatful for an update on what the big boys are doing. Perhaps we should change the name to the Big Boys Report ! I trimmed a little, but generally im still as exposed as ever, but as you say its at times like these that the greatest opportunites are. Just need to reapidly identify whether the trend is still up short term. We all know the long term rend is up, noone but noone would ever disagree with that - no market is ever in irreversable decline, its just that markets take a hell of s long time to recover after a bear phase and I want to make sure we arnt entering a bear phase. We dont want to be blindly holding long positions if the trend for the next 3 months or more is going to be down down down. Await your further update on todays latest report. I think others are taking the mickey simpley because you state how bullish it has been . If it had been a bearish report instead, you would have had people urging you for regular updates! Personally i find your past analysis of the report to be most enlightening, especially as it indicsted negative pre 1987 crash

IM said...

Dead cat bounce here. There was no capitulation and I expect more selling in the week ahead. This might be a good time to lighten up on long postions. Just look at SMH go. Semis have sucked the last few weeks and now they are leading !!! WTF !!

beanie11111 said...

NYX has bottomed.

Only fools sell this under 80.

newequity said...

Yeehaw bulls. Closed my 200 calls today for a nice 40% gain.

downosedive said...

newequity
yeah, but where to now?

beanie11111 said...

SBUX has bottomed. Don't ya trust me?

all aboard. You not gonna find it even close to that price 6 months to a year from now.

beanie11111 said...

Bearing any worldwide catastrophic event, i think the bull come rip roaring back next week.

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim,

I guess going long NSM and SMH and getting out of the Ultrashorts was a good thing ..I really do not need to advertise here I just mostly come to see the fine charts and expert opinion (mostly my own ) Dow is up 12 Fridays in a row .....1507 +++ SEMI's and we are back making money again.

Hope you follow the moves and trades closely and see if the pattern of being right (maybe early by a few minutes) all the time .

Next week is the big week ..can we hold ..or will the Bears claw back ..I am 80% long 20% cash and making money ...Hope everyone can say that ..with a clear mind anyway...thanks for opportunity to speak here TIM

TTT

downosedive said...

beanie
Its not really a question of trusting you, its more a question of what will the rest of 'em do!! Yesterdays sell off was panic like the start of a bear plunge. Just need to get confidence reestablished if the uptrend is to continue with force

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim..when are you going to print the outcome of your fantasy stock picks ...I know you don't like to advetise for other people but publishing the results of the stock long survey you did a month ago would be fascinating after the 400 point drop ???

Best advertising is a good product and word of mouth . I hope you can publish the results as they speak volumes of who has the ability to time and pick stocks ...like NSM ???

Tom

TTT

Tim Knight said...

Oh, guys. You have GOT to give this to me. I totally called today. Dead nuts on.

Brian said...

Kudos to Tim for calling the bounce today.

I've noticed that over the past months a 15 day EMA on the S&P 500 has worked well. It's stayed above it during the rallies, and during Feb's correction it acted as resistance. S&P broke through the 15 EMA in a big way...until it can get above it decisively I'm not jumping in long.

Also, anyone checked out the Dow Transports lately? With this latest drop it seems they're forming a year long ascending wedge (bearish reversal pattern). It doesn't mean anything until a breakout happens, but was enough for me to close out my IYT longs. Might be a good short if it returns to the most recent highs.

Anybody finding good patterns on any ETFs out there?

- Brian

toober said...

Cheesus K, it's almost Saturday already and all we got is yesterday's sitting, spinning lip synching guy? Come on Tim, we know you got it in you.

JakeGint said...

Toober,

Click on the Yorkshiremen above if you're bored. Then click on the other suggested Python skits to the right of it ...

Djoo close out that Goog call position yet?

Winace said...

dw

Tim Knight said...

Sorry, fellers. We had an epic party for my young son and his class, so I'm busy pulling cleanup duty. I'll write up the entry tonight. Promise.

JakeGint said...

Family first. No problemo. Take it easy, it's the weekend after all.

Winace said...

Tim,
As you, I also nailed today. Hate to pat myself on the back, but I'll take it! I trade the Q's 95% of the time, occasionally SPY, DIA, and/or IWM. These give me a pretty good idea of overall market performance. I placed a contingent order, OTO trailing stop at 46.20 on the Q's. Delta heavy long calls. My confirmation text on my phone came in, I logged in OX and placed a 46.60 target stop. Wasn't 10 seconds after I hit the confirmation that my cell went off again! Good Friday! About 30% in 20 minutes. Sorry I am just kind of new to trading, forgive my excitement. I studied for 2 years before ever dropping a dime. I read every TA book I got my hands on. I have them all on PDF if anyone is interested in trading them. I also have numerous Fundamentalist PDF's also, if I haven't deleted them. Sorry, die hard TA (or is that T&A?) here. I called the bounce this AM identified by a 10 day channel, (or was it 3?(OX is down for maintenance and can't verify at the moment)). As I was analyzing, I discovered a really interesting channel on the 60 day chart, which may Identify the long term trend change. If correct, which I've been on fire lately, I see a quick run up to re-test resistance and the formation of a H&S to begin the descent and break the 60 day channel. After that, it's looking all down until....Hmmm... end of Septemberish? Notice I use all channels? Every identifiable trend line has one or more parallel counterparts. I'll show it on any chart. Look for the spike day Monday or Tuesday, if OX was up, I'd be more precise. It'll be down on expanding volume at that point. Can't wait to see the chain reaction the short term H&S will trigger. I changed my name by the way, was george-swanson. I just opened the google account to post here, the only site on the web I read. I don't even look at headline news. I have a lot of respect for Tim. He let's his opinions hang out and lives up to them, right or wrong. Which, by the way Tim, when you started talking bullish (some comment on going long energy stocks?) was my confirmation the top was in place. I think the janitor at work told me to buy stock that day come to think of it. I love to hear all the comments guys, keep it up. Difference of opinions is what makes the markets move. On a side note.... Beanie, you on crack?
Sorry about the previous post, was messin with the screen name.
Did you get a chance to look at that S&P chart Tim? Any feedback would be appreciated.

Gary said...

Nose dive,
Hold on to your longs the Cot is still extremely long. We also got the start of bottoming action here today with the volatile upward move right after the climax volume on the SPY's yesterday. IM I would have to disagree you don't get the kind of massive selling that we saw yesterday at the begining of a market plunge you get it near the end as irrational fear takes control of the mind. Panic selling always creates opportunities. I suspect we go back down to test the lows next week but the big boys are still buying. Nose dive if you want my daily updates or the actual spreadsheets just send me an e-mail request. I also post the basic buy or sell signals on my blog every Friday afternoon as soon as the report comes out.

Winace said...

Mine was last night..... 3 hours of elementary school graduation ceremony.......

beanie11111 said...

The Case For A Huge Snapback Rally:

www.beanie11111.blogspot.com

downosedive said...

gary
How do I get in touch with my email address? I sure would like the updates etc

Market Speculator said...

Tim Knight said...
Oh, guys. You have GOT to give this to me. I totally called today. Dead nuts on.


Blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile!

Gary said...

nosedive,
here is my blog http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/ you will find my e-mail on the lower right hand side of the home page under request the COT spreadsheet.

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