Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Snapback and Logo Vote

Today's snapback rally - the best day this year for the Dow, I read - is no surprise. In fact, it's a bit of a relief. A number of readers wrote me before the opening bell today and expressed their desire that the market would push higher to give them a good chance to sell into the strength. So - wish granted!

I wanted to ask your opinion about something. I wanted to doll up the blog a bit with a logo, and I've got four choices. Instead of just me picking my favorite, I'd love to hear your opinion. It won't take a moment....

Here's choice One:




Which is your favorite? Please take a moment to vote; thank you!

The question on everyone's mind - mine included! - is whether the recent sell-off was just a bit of profit-taking in an otherwise uninterrupted bull market. Maybe. But a one-day rally isn't going to change my views. I closed out a handful of positions today, but by and large I am holding strong.

The Russell 2000 - which between puts on the $RUT and puts on the IWM seems to be the most tradeable index on the market - is at a crucial point. It pushed through the supporting trendline but is now within its channel again. The next two days are crucial. If the market pushes higher the rest of the week, a lot of my arguments over the past couple of days are kind of shot.

Apple, my "short it!!" topic earlier this week, fell nicely today in spite of the overall market roaring higher. That is a very, very good sign. My puts are up 75%.

A few reiterations of earlier bullish suggestions that still look good. JetBlue (JBLU):

ONT, with a stop at $2.56:

And Southwestern (SWN):

Side note to Timothy Sykes - thanks for the book. I'm flattered, and I'll check it out!


marxist said...

#3 is strong, dynamic, eye catching and powerful. I like the little yellow lines top and bottom.

I like the bold type.
Two thoughts. Might consider changing from orange "hope" to green. Green is the color of money!

I also like the "with TK" of the last one. I like the little human figure.

Hope that helps.

Holdem or Foldem said...

What a dirty game.

OK, we are in a forever "bull market". Dow "20000" this year.

JakeGint said...


Solars coming back means.....




I like #4 Classy ... I think the rally will continue as there is so much going now for the Bulls agin ...the bears had the chance to slam the door shut but the time is not here yet .Looks like GS $250 and QQQQ $50 will be done as per my predictions. Even if the inflation numbers are high we have only had Bear markets in deflationary times and now that the yield curve is done being inverted the only way you could have a bear is for ulta high P/E's and with July earnings coming out ..I say that 18.00 x is high but not high enough ..not until Sept -Nov will housing really kill the market and we get the crashola ...nice call though on the one day downer , you had all the charts and ammo needed but the Bonds turned the Bulls way by FED magic this a.m. and with the help of the GOV't ...we are back into an intermediate uptrend to 14,300 or so .



P.S. Vote #4

hong said...

Tim, you are 80% time wrong. I think beginning will loss money by visit your site. why are you been a bear in a bull market?? try to aprove you are better than any one else? can you give us a more accurate prediction of the market?? Like yesterday, you show us all of your put and short position, if a newbiz visit your site and followed your lead, guess what will happen to him??

Geoff said...

"If you would have been trading heavily in the stuff you've posted for your "supposed" trades over the last year.. you would have to be homeless and begging in the soup lines."

I really doubt someone would put as much time into their blog as Tim does to post "fake" trades just to trick you.

JakeGint said...

Why the vitriol?

I mean, I can understand good natured ribbing, but what the flu?

Don't you people have lives?

JP said...

I've read lots of blogs about the stock market in the last year and this one is the only one that remains in my hot link. Not because Tim is an incredible market guru who is right everytime, but because he provides his own opinion about the market direction. This is not a how to site. Tim is not wrong 95% of the time. Tim makes money (or at least that is what i've been led to believe :D)and to me that makes him right.

Take Tim's POV from this, not his trading suggestions. Or you could go pay some idiot 250 dollars a week to tell you what to buy, and he'd be just as wrong.

b.healed said...

voting #2. just looks cool. if you choose any other i will create a satelite site, use all of your posts and say they are mine, steal your readers and somehow become really famous as a result of the banner.

2sweeties said...

This is a question for everybody, especially Tim, Tom The Trader, Gary (and the others as well...).

Blackstone, the word's biggest private equity firm is going public in the week of the 25th of june 2007.

Why do you think Blackstone will 'sell' its company on the stock market?

1) They want to make all the money they can and run before it's too late (because they know soon there would be no more M&A to do and consequently the bull run will finish and recession will follow and their company would be worthless)

2) They need money to buy something very expensive (the Mother of every M&A?) and they think that borrowing in banks is going to be very expensive in the next months, so it's better to self-finance themselves in the stock market like everybody else does (they also considered piggy-backing loans but it's becoming harder and harder to obtain...)

3) Other reason____________________
(here's your chance to fill the blanks, Tim, Tom, Gary, etc.)

Please note I am not a bull, I am not a bear, I just 'follow' the main market trend, up or down, and I am very curious to hear everybody's opinion on this because
the Blackstone IPO come in a very interesting moment, probably a turning point that will see the market either start to go up in parabolic acceleration, either to go down.
It will start from the 25th of june week.

Any ideas about this?

hong said...

Blackstone IPO will go up huge.

Vic said...

Options expiry Friday will muddle direction near term . A Bear makes money thru volatility- buy and sell at extremes in price . With the Fed induced overly exhuberant bulls on the loose,to make money you keep tight trailing stops and stay ready to reverse your weak positions.

Tim Knight said...

Hong wrote:

"I think beginning will loss money by visit your site."

Ummm. WTF?

Jibber jabber gumba yabber! Flip flam.

Howard Johnson is right!

cloud said...

Being the great contrarian, Tim should pick the logo with the least number of votes and go with that. That is assuming the majority will not read this and vote the other way - nah, the herd is never smart enough to turn until the red hot iron is stucked up their asses.

Edwardo said...

Look at the chart, Tim. We are in a classic ABC correction, and the C wave will probably travel another five or ten points higher on the S&P 500.

The next leg down, a three in E-wave parlance, should be a doozy it will likely start sometime next week. Folks, the worm has turned for now. The mostl likely path from here is a low sometime this summer and then a final sell of a lifetime rally this fall. The bulls are going to get decimated by the bear... when he's good and ready. All bubbles will pop.

Anonymous said...

edwardo...must be in a cheerleading outfit, cheering on Tim at his desk.


That is the most cheerleading for the downside yet!

And, are you referring to the Shanghai bubble?

Tim Knight said...

"Being the great contrarian, Tim should pick the logo with the least number of votes and go with that."

I consulted with Hong on the matter, and he replied: "The desk is as low as the ceiling. But why eat the closet? It is a wide white thing, and that is the way!"

Gary said...

Yesterday you all but guaranteed that the bull market was finished. Today you claim to have predicted $50 on the Q's. Which one is it. crash or float? Sweetie I unfortunately don't sit on the board of Blackstone so I can't give any kind of intelligent answer to your question.
Holdem thats the most ridiculous comment so far. Do you really think the market will just go up forever. I guarantee we will have another bear market sometime the difference between me and the permabears is that I am content to wait for it instead of continually trying to pick a top.

Anonymous said...

Gary said:
" I guarantee we will have another bear market sometime the difference between me and the permabears is that I am content to wait for it instead of continually trying to pick a top."

Well said, smart strategy.


Gary ,
I run a popular HEDGE FUND where we time the market on a daily basis ...I was called a permaBULL by most of the contributors here and have only ventured into the cave a couple of times and I was right to do so ..I have had the same price target on GS and QQQQ since June of last year and have held the stock or options relentlessly for that time one who has been alive the last year can say anything to the contrary ...we have had 5 bearish periods and the latest with horrible breadth and the interest rate scare was enough to get us short again but by 10:30 am today after being 50-50 neutral we went bullish and we were back to long and now are calling for 14,300 and GS 250 and QQQQ 50 as per June 7th 2006 ...Blackstone is calling an early market top and I agree we have maybe 3-6 motnhs left in this BULL. You should take free trial and get on the daily chats and learn something / learn something may be interested in 1/2that ..



charttrader said...

Some feedback about TTT aka Tom The Trader newsletter, buyer beware, somebody has to say it, it's a complete POS in my opinion, the guy can't spell or construct complete sentences, changes positions daily, and is always claiming huge gains whatever the market does, there is no TA analysis, he subscribes to about 10 other newsletters then tries to guess the market direction based on their opinion, you can tell he's full of it just by reading his blog

Kevin Fickle said...

PSB is still a sick-weak flea infested dog amongst a bunch of liquid driven idiot bulls.

I would keep my money in a few sick ones until the market is truly turning down--- see William O'Neil. Lately good economic news has been turning the market downwards, which does not forebode well for the future of equities in America and on a global scale. Following Shanghai- a global crash could fall upon us within the next couple of years- stay tuned.

Gary said...

Your exact comments yesterday.
"When I called for the end of the Bull market I really think people are shocked but we have been on the right side of the market for 5 years and plan on continuing. The fund is up huge and we alleviate risk by using ultrshort funds and using our own market timing tools which make profits 90% of the time. We are now 70% short using DXD plus some Aug. puts and hope to see 1480 test soon." I wonder just how did you know that the bear call was not going to play out at exactly 10:30 since the market didn't really start to take off until 1:30 when the Beige book report came out. I also noticed that yesterday you were 70% short with some extra puts but tonight you claim to have been 50/50 neutral.

Let me point out something to the more rational investors. Yes there are strategies that can produce a winning trade 90% of the time. The Q bollinger band crash trade is one of them. However just because a system produces a winning trade 90% of the time doesn't necessarily mean it has a positive expectancy. The problem with a trade that wins 90% of the time is that the winners are very small and the losers are very big. The best systems produce a winning trade 60% of the time and the winners are also larger than the losers. BTW it is very hard to find a system this good. You can also have a system that wins only 30% of the time but the winners are much larger than the losers. So yes Tom could be making winning trades 90% of the time but if the account is up as much as he says then he is using huge leverage. When the streak of losing trades come that leverage will blow out his account. Remember Ammarath. Remember when something seems to good to be true it is.

Tim Knight said...

OK, OK (Tim makes a time-out sign). This obsession with TTT is taking over comments. Tom, I think people are acquainted with your methods and where to reach your site. If you want to make comments about stuff on this blog specifically (and avoid self-referential material), that's great. But otherwise, I'm going to have to consider any self-referential comments to be an ad. Not trying to pick on you, but this is getting a bit much.

JakeGint said...

The only "hedge fund" Tom has is the $1.80 his wife sets aside for his Starbucks Italian Roast Grande, payable only upon his trimming of the azealas.

JakeGint said...

Oops, I missed Tim's slapdown by a scosh.

Hey Tim, just think of it as a particularly funny video you've posted.

JakeGint said...

Game Over!

Timmah, you're the currency man... what make ye of the dollar pushing towards 123 yen? Can you say five year high?

What make ye of that carry trade w. regard to our markets? Care to chart a comp?

Not a good time to be bearish, even for Edwardo of the Existential Doom.

JakeGint said...

And Tim, can I tell you?

You are a veritable Oompah Loompah of Eternal Optimism next to this guy Edwardo. You sure can attract 'em though. Check this, this guy's latest post claims the standard of living in the US has deteriorated.

This is the country where the homeless are talking on cell phones. I mean, I love romanticism, but this is going a bit far.

Anyway, if you don't believe me, take a look at the website, called, no joke,

Catchy, but maybe not so marketable, you think?

b.healed said...

as a former starbucks partner (aka employee) i must say that italian roast is really one of my favorites of the line of coffees. it is the second darkest roast that they offer.

this was not an add, simply a statement *smile*

Philippe said...

Tim, concerning Apple, the game is yours.
But let's wait for the set and match. Remember, it ain't over till the fat lady sings...

JakeGint said...

Healed... I'm a big fan of the Eyetalian Roast, m'self.

And Verona.

jakethesnake said...

I would be surprised if Tom is up this year. The only income he has is the fools who send him 75 bucks to an msn paypal account. He claims to be up over 10x which would require leverage and monumental risk. I doubt he is even trading anything at all.

Gary said...

Totally agree 10X means huge leverage. Huge leverage means blown out account eventually.

Andrew M. said...

Tim...didn't you know that Hong's FAVORITE book is "Brown Spots on the Chart" by Hu Flung Pu?

beanie11111 said...

TSL has a really good chart. It has already bottomed at $40.

good luck.

Solar plays are back in vogue.

see ya at the top.

beanie11111 said...


Hey folks, i got tons of smart people backing me up on the solar industry. So please put your doubts back into the cupboard. It will keep you from making serious money. Ever wonder why you keep on missing the YHOOs and EBAYs of the world? Doubts and more doubts, that's what. It takes visionaries to see what's gonna happen before it happens. Ted Turner is a visionary. He is right about solar.

Do you know that in certain cities in china the pollution is so bad that they have no choice but to go into alternative energy. How you like to go outside and see fog looking air when there's no fog in the first place?

Tim sometimes looks like he's been there, with so many bear charts of his. lol

beanie11111 said...

You got balls of fire?

How about some TSL July 45 calls @ 2.20 or less.

SPWR, FSLR, STP look great too.

AssetStrategists said...


"How about some TSL July 45 calls @ 2.20 or less."?

This puppy has yet to make a higher low. This could be a classic Bear Flag play. You may want to think Puts.

newequity said...


ooooolay said...

Tim, You decide to triple down on those Rus Puts you mentioned the other day. The market has been on a tear ripping shorts down. Your 34 positions are all red it appears.

Gary said...

Yes that "ton of puts" you talked about is now teaching you a lesson about position sizing I'm guessing. The shorts on oil don't appear to be working so good either. Calling tops is a losing game how many times must the permabears be taught this lesson. There will eventually be a time to short but at this rate I'm not sure if the top callers will have any money left to short with. BTW I thought you wanted to publish the COT chart. I did give you permission to copy it off my site.

bear said...

jake said: I would be surprised if Tom is up this year. The only income he has is the fools who send him 75 bucks to an msn paypal account. He claims to be up over 10x which would require leverage and monumental risk. I doubt he is even trading anything at all.

I would be surprised if Tim did any better than Tom. with all his bearish positions and puts and shorts, he gets killed everyday, It's just that he is a big shot with lots of cash and can afford to lose.

Tim Knight said...

"BTW I thought you wanted to publish the COT chart. I did give you permission to copy it off my site."

I'd be happy to do so, but I don't really want to unless there is a COT graph on the chart. I don't find an index chart with annotated arrows nearly as compelling as having a corresponding GRAPH of information (in this case, COT) beneath it.

JakeGint said...

You mean like a net long/short number for the data points?

Can you do that, Gary? Might need to do it in an Xcel graph.

Anonymous said...

IWM has broken nothing, invcluding last month's low....