Wednesday, December 13, 2006

The Sleeping Man Pattern

Looking at the past five or so days on the markets, this one in particular the S&P 500, I can see what we have here is a classic Sleeping Man Pattern.


Honestly, people. Today's action isn't worth my commentary. I hope something happens soon (preferably down), because this market is boring me to tears.

Sorry to trouble you that you checked in today. Doing a good post takes time, and I have nothing new to say.

34 comments:

Fuzz said...

With lips like that, looks more like a Sleeping Woman.

John said...

You may get your wish soon...bonds look sick. If they fall some more, people will start switching from stocks to bonds. Could make for an interesting February.

John

Michael Newton said...

I agree with John. I am currently short bonds and neutral on stocks. Would like to get short stocks as well.

Wish you would analyze bonds in addition to stocks.

Anonymous said...

Tim - I hear you brutha! Today I almost fell asleep at my desk watching the "action". At some point I nearly strangled myself with all the boredom. Then about 12pm I couldn't stand it anymore so I went shopping.

Anonymous said...

TIM,

MDC - R U ADVISING LONG OR SHORT?

(question from yesterday)

Tim Knight said...

Regarding MDC - well, since it's retraced to its neckline, I'd say that's a "short".

Anonymous said...

Whatever happened to volatility?? This market is PAINFUL!!!

SHORT or LONG!

And of course whatever I decide to buy or sell, explodes to the opposite side!

I am seriously hoping for a fukin' CRASH ... this market is beyond idiotic.

exuco

Anonymous said...

All I can say is that today's market interpreting 'soft' economic news so that we get a rate cut is sort of like someone wishing to get sick so that they can have some time off work.

It's retarded, but people with money usually are!

pepsi

JP said...

Yup i agree 100%. Just finished my last exam today at noon, was excited to get back into the "fast paced" market action...ha!

It's coming...just when? Maybe xmas morning?

Anonymous said...

John, Michael, YES. However, you are also getting Oil rising in price as well. And if you took a look at the OIH, you would see a pretty nice breakout from what has been happening over the last five to six months.

But are you surprised by all this? The stock market has been going up, and up, (and up) - and now you are getting a slight bit of sideways trending. I doubt things will suddenly start hitting the fan till after Xmas/New Years, but cyclically, everything looks just as it should. The negative correlation between the markets and Oil is uncanny.

I wouldn't be surprised to see oil go up more, and as a result, creating a negative effect on equities.

I'm not a trader in the bond market, but I casually look at it to see whats going on.

By the way - WOW this word verification is painful!

--stockshaker (http://www.stockshaker.blogspot.com)

eat the bears said...

Burp!

Whoa! ate too many bears this morning...

New highs - nice to see again - time to book these profits.

That's it for this year.

Bears lose again.

Time to close down all these bearish sites and bearish blogs - the lessons on how not to short the market and how not to buy puts have been learned.

When 99% of the world is going long - you don't short - OK - simple as that.

When small time investors are net short - you don't short - OK - simple as that.

You don't short bad news when the market is rallying - simple as that - OK

Charts mean little in this kind of environment - OK - simple as that.

Bears - Enjoy your Xmas holidays in your caves - Ben and Paulson will let you bears out - only when they want to put you to work - until then you need to hibernate - market corrections are fake events created buy the Fed - they don't want one now - OK - simple as that.

Have you bears learned anything?

The market is made to go where Wall Street wants it to go - not where 'you' think it should go.

A merry Xmas to all - even the bears - see you in the New Year.

Anonymous said...

Ok - you're a real brave one asshole ... post your name fuckhead!!

Anonymous said...

FUCK these markets. There too fucking bullish, when the time comes and reality eventually sets in this market will fall to pieces. Recession is on the way, ARMS resetting a housing market thats collapsing as I type this, construction jobs being lost all over the place. This market is manipulated. They keep pumping up the markets as if nothing is wrong with this economy. Everything is wrong and everyone is ignoring it. Reality will set in. Markets cant go up forever, look at the VIX, its under 10 again.

Toober said...

OK peoples. While you were sleeping yesterday NYA was making all time high, foreboding follow through. At this moment all major indexes up, "uncanny" Oil up, bonds down. You could have listened to yelling guy and picked up some Dec AAPL 90 calls at .25 (yesterday AND this morning), currently .65

Anonymous said...

OK! I am the last bear who got killed.


dead bear

Anonymous said...

this is it, the final nail in the coffin, we're dead bears!!

When oh when will a CRASH come???

Anonymous said...

Finally 12400!

Anonymous said...

lets assume the dow goes up 100 points every week, so the dow will be 12400 + 5200 = 17600 by december 2007.

I attribute this rally to the senator's illness. oil is up, natural gas is up

Anonymous said...

Fuck these markets, fuck these markets. The fucking manipulation is sickening. The money being pumped into these markets is so manipulated is pathetic. Tomorrow we have the CPI and if thats well below consensus which I'll bet it will be expect 12500+. Every market in the world continues to power ahead like nothing is wrong. Incredible. FUCK THESE MARKETS.

Anonymous said...

wow!! pls stop this!! I wanna get off!

Pushing prices to the stratosphere!!

Anonymous said...

IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE !!!!!! All I can say is when it falls...it's coming down hard.

Doug

Anonymous said...

streeeeeetchd!!!

Anonymous said...

As Nelson Munz says:
'Ha ha'.

The market won't come down until it does.

Even when the correction comes, there is a higher chance of the long term bull market remaining intact. (Bottom ~11000).

Enjoy your shorts people.

Anonymous said...

I've been at this game for a long time and traded through a lot of cycles. I know in the best of times its an unequal playing field. But something really feels amiss in today's markets. Manipulation seems rampant. Big sell blocks crossing without denting the tape. Bids not getting hit so sideline sitters have to pay up to get in. Not a whiff of profit taking after a 6 month vertical run. Do the hedgies have their liquidity propping up bids? Do foreigners? Does the fed? Something is just not right in how this market trades. jeff

Anonymous said...

"the market won't come down until it does"

fucking insightful brainiac!!!

why do you even waste time posting garbage like that?

Anonymous said...

Jeff --- good to see rationality still exists among a few of us!

Right on! This market reeks of 'someone' just ratcheting it higher!

- pepsi

z-stock said...

I thought there was something wrong with the $trans put, because Lstr and Expd, had taken such abhorrent bear beatings. The money flow seems to rotate sectors. The Market beats one sector down, then starts building it back up again. It now looks like UNP headed for a new yearly high. On the other hand , XLE came within 50cents of my target put price (60.7). And OIH came to within 20 cents.(151.2) So here’s my theory, The Market is going to rotate money out of the Energy sector, (APC and SLB already hit with bad news) (COP is way over bought) (one exception. TSO is a dangerous short at anything below it’s yearly high, too much positive eps trend.) Here are the new sectors I’m seeing money start to flow into. Mortgage banks (bear beating over) and Trans stocks (bear beating over) Steel, Exchanges( like Ndaq), and Medical devices are in the first stages of getting (bear beatings), only to rise again, like the South.
z-stock

NewEquity said...

The market woke up after some early numbers hit the tape that were leaked by someone. Probably a Goldman Sachs Trader that received his bonus and put it into the s&p futures this morning.

Anonymous said...

I agree about the sector rotation, but this market is not simply "rotating." Every single buy or sell is being 100% coordinated.

But regardless of what's going on with the indices, please don't lose sight of the fact that this market is topping out. It's not a day or week event, it's a process.

Rest assured that this market will fall. And fall fast. 6 straight months of nearly vertical rise cannot possibly go "unpunished."

Greedy bulls (the pigs) will get slaughtered. The bears just have to stick around long enough for that to happen.

Anonymous said...

hopefully Tim has some insight into what the f*** is happening.
how can the market go up and up and up and up. half the bears have probably committed suicide by now.
the other half are having "no sleep" torture.

Tim, please enlighten,

Anonymous said...

"the market won't come down until it does" => fucking insightful brainiac!!!"

Yes, so insightful and obvious that people still trade without confirmation, thus resulting in comments like these:

->"I am seriously hoping for a fukin' CRASH ... this market is beyond idiotic."

->wow!! pls stop this!! I wanna get off!

->Fuck these markets, fuck these markets. The fucking manipulation is sickening. The money being pumped into these markets is so manipulated is pathetic....Incredible. FUCK THESE MARKETS.

Anonymous said...

"i just want to make a fortune watching bulls lose theirs."

thats what you and your fucking foot soldiers get opie.

-aunt bea

Anonymous said...

agree, fundamentals don't explain this market rally.

but keep in mind, SUPPLY and DEMAND determine stock prices, nothing else.

DEMAND side is surging with dollars being printed like its the end of the world.

SUPPLY of stocks continues to fall with company repurchases and private equity taking out whole companies.

DEMAND UP

SUPPLY DOWN

= PRICES UP

as much as we bears don't like it, that's the reality!

Anonymous said...

wow sounds like the bears can't take it anymore...lol. Sounds like we go higher