Thursday, August 11, 2005

Revisiting New Zealand (FOREX)

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned the attractive short position available with the New Zealand Dollar. I wanted to revisit this, since the price has gone above the "neckline", thus negating the head & shoulders pattern, and bringing into question the value of this position.

Looking at the long term chart, I still believe this is a good chart. A Fibonacci retracement might be a better view into the "turning point" of this, which seems to be at about the .7070 level (highlighted here in green).

This represents the 50% retracement of recent activity. If it continues to plow upward, we'll have to turn our attention elsewhere. But as it stands, this is still an attractive position (although you may be well advised to wait until it's close to the .7070 mark and shows weakness).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar is in a 5th wave postion of an elliot wave that started in September 2000... Do not expect a reversal in this pair for a while yet... But it is coming.. I will guess within a few a years to form a large downward ABC correction.. Be ready then..