Wednesday, May 18, 2005

At the Breaking Point?

This month has so far been very hard on the bears (gee, Tim, a near-vertical rally would have that effect, wouldn't it?) The major indexes are up between four and seven percent just over the past couple of weeks.

The ascent of these indices - including my beloved MDY - has been swift and virtually relentless. If the market continues any higher from these levels, the arguments for near-to-mid-term bearishness start to fall apart. The graph above is the QQQQ, and as you can see, the price level is pushing up against both an important descending trendline as well as the 50% retracement level on the Fibonacci.

I've had a few good longs recently - F, ATI, AIG, GLW - but it's frankly pretty hard to find good longs. There seem to be far better shorting opportunities. But it's somewhat hazardous these days to buck the trend!

Let's see if the indexes start to back off - - - if you're a bear, they had better do so, since continued strength at these lofty levels would not bode well for ursine dispositions.

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