tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post910411514096657001..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: No Man's LandTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2518165458274034502006-11-17T06:08:00.000-08:002006-11-17T06:08:00.000-08:00Well folks the time has come to say ENOUGH! As you...Well folks the time has come to say ENOUGH! As you may remember we called the rally to the DAY and now we are sticking our necks out and predicting a decline starting today.<br />We are doing this with no economic news on tap and no other catalyst that we can think of to set this decline off. Then why oh why are we ruining the fun?<br /><br />Well It's The Productivity Stupid! In the 1990's big gains in corporate efficiency brought on by high tech spending & global trade was THE key factor in holding down inflation. You don't hear much about worker productivity lately from the Fed whereas Greenspan used to talk about it all the time. Why no mention from Big Ben? Well because the news is not very good.<br />In 2003 we reached a PEAK rate of 4% productivity growth As of the third quarter we were down to 1.9%. This takes a little time to work it's way through the economy but it's the slowest rate in 9 years! The newest reports we have read suggest a rate of 1.3% and that rate WILL be revised even lower early next year when the Labor Dept. incorporates recent hours worked info from 2005 and 2006 (a lot of overtime- not new hires). Productivity slow down means the economy has less room to grow without generating inflation ,this is showing up in the labor market that continues to TIGHTEN even as economic growth SLOWS. The result labor costs are spiking. And just at a time when most companies productivity gains are to weak to offset a pay raise to the workforce. October hourly pay was up a whopping 4% from the year before.<br /><br />The Fed then is in a bind. As economic activity reaccelerates as we think it will after the midyear cycle slowdown the labor markets will tighten further-- Quite simply running at absolute employment is BAD for inflation. So whereas commodity-based inflation and oil has retreated and that has caused inflation to appear to have peaked - the end result may be quite a bit more inflation than the Fed can be comfortable with. Big Ben will have to continue his rate raising cycle and that will put us in a risk of recession in mid to late 2007.<br /><br />Why correction now then? Well things don't go straight up. The VIX is popping under 11 complacency is everywhere-- oil is hovering at $60 not $50 despite the warm weather on the East coast. It's really just a GUT feeling one gets from studying the markets for 20 years but the Bears are getting rolled day after day, liquidity is so low ONE $500 million dollar futures buy the other day set off a stampede on the upside in the S&P 500. I have never seen that before. The buybacks by corporations have helped this rally and corporate earnings so much! However, the recent round of mega IPO's has us worried that some of the excess liquidity is now being mopped up.<br /><br />The Fed is expecting an economic slowdown sufficient enough to generate enough slack in the labor market to allow price pressure to ease.<br />Stoned Investing is not so sure. And even if we do slow down inventories are so high right now , 7.5% higher than last year-- that won't be good either.<br /><br />So the call is for two weeks of pain ~ maybe 5%....<br />but of course a lot more in the one's that have gone up the most.<br /><br />The Stonedinvestor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-24080595005596921172006-11-16T13:49:00.000-08:002006-11-16T13:49:00.000-08:00My first post here, and like many I have been look...My first post here, and like many I have been looking for the bulls last gasp as any number of issues (debt, valuations etc...) bring the market back to earth. But perhaps I am looking at this all wrong. After all, the almighty Dollar is fundamentally worth.....nothing. The powers that be can (and have) been printing them non stop for quite some time now, and all the debt markets do is yawn. So perhaps a better question is " how much are these companys worth....in monopoly money?" How many bright orange $500 bills from milton bradley would you trade for a share of GE? <br />Until the debt market calls the central bank's bluff, there really is no reason for the market to fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-46115283754156478022006-11-16T13:42:00.000-08:002006-11-16T13:42:00.000-08:00pb i was looking to go long around dow 11600-11700...pb i was looking to go long around dow 11600-11700 but that was when the dow was trading at 12,000....<br /><br />its also one of those things that if the DOW does go to 11900 you think hey now is a great time to go long, you go long and the next thing you know its trading at 11,500. <br /><br />8 out of 9 days is pretty amazing if you ask me....<br /><br />i really thought 2 weeks ago when we briefly dipped below 12,000 that the bears were going to win, but it didnt work. <br /><br />HPQ earnings after the bell nothing too great, stock is unchanged, however sbux is down..........I think i may have to buy some SBUX because it only goes up after it falls like this....35 might sound good...<br /><br /><br />trader 2006Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-88669544123185469802006-11-16T12:29:00.000-08:002006-11-16T12:29:00.000-08:00look at JNPR, bastards are fighting to fix to $20
...look at JNPR, bastards are fighting to fix to $20<br /><br />Wish I has a billion dollars, I would screw these mother fsckersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-18105217555613085652006-11-16T11:40:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:40:00.000-08:00down your not alone....same thing happens with me,...down your not alone....same thing happens with me, i go long the market drops, i go short and im covering like you days later....<br /><br />I was long QID at 67.000000000000000000000000000<br /><br /><br />today 91.0000000000000000000000000000000<br /><br /><br />I sold out of QID for a minor profit, went long again around 70-72 and sold for a minor profit then went long QID and since then have averaged down 3 times losing everytime.....im in a no win situation..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-55614651189290206312006-11-16T11:18:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:18:00.000-08:00Trader2006 - and anothing, NEVER feel you are alon...Trader2006 - and anothing, NEVER feel you are alone. We are all with you and in this those active bears. i lost in excess of $12000 last quarter gambling on the DJA. I want my money back and will fight to get it back. Just dont give up mate. By the way - is that you at the top of this section? You had $27500 in June. If it is Christ man. The only thing I can say is at least your capital hasnt been lost like mine has. I know thats probably no help at all? There isnt anything else I can add at present. Just stay with usdownosedivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10330098599116167405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-45666892338934752842006-11-16T11:16:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:16:00.000-08:00Im in on the hunting trip. Can we do it before the...Im in on the hunting trip. Can we do it before the closing bell so I can go home(at least one day) happy. Since when is it illegal for the market to be red at the end of the day. the GOP must had passed that law before they were thrown out....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2954580545122518942006-11-16T11:12:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:12:00.000-08:00http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/markets/activetra...http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/markets/activetraderupdate/10322652.html <br /><br />Read thisAndrew Wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11251158217939682518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-37339401841486407702006-11-16T11:10:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:10:00.000-08:00The pain seems the strongest right now....
Boug...The pain seems the strongest right now.... <br /><br />Bought more ESRX puts....overbought and failed at gap resistance.<br /><br />If the market goes up alittle more...I'm loading the boat with SPY puts.. You won't get an opportunity like this in your lifetime again. At some point you need to realize that something isn't making sense, and that the risks are not to the upside any longer.. they areto the downside. <br /><br />Up 7/8 days...hahah this is a bad joke. Let them run it through the roof.....I'm not calling a top but there are an awful lot of weak stocks that need a break. You don't keep sprinting without breathing....Andrew Wrighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11251158217939682518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-76186245807503011642006-11-16T11:07:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:07:00.000-08:00Trader2006
I wish I could tell you it was, geezzz,...Trader2006<br />I wish I could tell you it was, geezzz, Im pummled. I took out a heavy short and in just 2 days Im pounded totally pounded. What the hell to do? I just know if i close them the market will then fall. If I go long the market will fall. If I hold these short positions the market will carry on rising. Whatever I f****** do the market ALWAYS does the opposite. I just dispair. But surely surely this just cant go and on? A glorious soft landing with zero inflation and 1% interest rates has not only been factored in, but way exceeded.......?????? LOL like a madmandownosedivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10330098599116167405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-57892165604748078922006-11-16T11:02:00.000-08:002006-11-16T11:02:00.000-08:00hey everyone!
I'm organizing a hunting trip to WA...hey everyone!<br /><br />I'm organizing a hunting trip to WALL St. Gonna shoot some bulls!<br /><br />Let's meet infront of NYSE at 4:00pm sharp!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-46217821762524446272006-11-16T10:47:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:47:00.000-08:00Please tell me this is the blow off top....
nasda...Please tell me this is the blow off top....<br /><br />nasdaq up 9<br /><br />DOW UP 65...<br /><br />12,319<br /><br />DISGUSTING<br /><br />TRADER 2006.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-86239977216075046552006-11-16T10:46:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:46:00.000-08:00frank im with you 100000000000% on that
this is ...frank im with you 100000000000% on that<br /><br /><br />this is FU$IKNG un REAL UNREALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL<br /><br />i would love to see a triple digit loss by 4pm<br /><br />TRADER 2006.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-70641563380827340602006-11-16T10:43:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:43:00.000-08:00yes, that's DOW 1,000!!!
Fukc you bulls!!!!yes, that's DOW 1,000!!!<br /><br />Fukc you bulls!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-23682512450965825422006-11-16T10:41:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:41:00.000-08:00blow up top! melt up! insane! whatever!
dead bear...blow up top! melt up! insane! whatever!<br /><br />dead bearAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-36361112622363490752006-11-16T10:40:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:40:00.000-08:00THIS MARKET IS SERIOUSLY PISSING ME OFF!! EVERY GO...THIS MARKET IS SERIOUSLY PISSING ME OFF!! EVERY GODDAM LITTLE PULLBACK EVAPORATES!!!<br /><br />I REALLY DO SINCERELY HOPE TAHT THIS MARKET CRASHES IN STAYS BELOW DOW 1,000 FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS!<br /><br />- Frank the TankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-24962306402763179862006-11-16T10:38:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:38:00.000-08:00IS anyone here questioning the buyouts by these pr...IS anyone here questioning the buyouts by these private equity FIRMS.....DOES ANYONE see what is going on....<br /><br /><br />in the last month there have been over 10 companies back private......does anyone understand what is happening.....<br /><br /><br />and please tell me today is a blowoff top, these markets have been straight up for nearly the last 2 weeks........Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-89800306618550130752006-11-16T10:35:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:35:00.000-08:00another damn ralllllly....WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF...another damn ralllllly....WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF<br /><br /><br /><br />Trader 2006.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-22128923601714474592006-11-16T10:32:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:32:00.000-08:00tonyb, one thing to note that this liquidity ramp ...tonyb, one thing to note that this liquidity ramp has been driven by the treasury repos, NOT the fed, paulson has taken over the driver's seat from ben and relegated him to the playskool wheel in the back seat. as if you didn't know already, the winner has and will always be the big boys on wall st., mainly gs, ms, merAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-7703674570017762392006-11-16T10:27:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:27:00.000-08:00day after day after day i question this market, ho...day after day after day i question this market, how it can sustain these moves with little or no pullback is beyond anything ill ever understand. <br /><br />Every bear in here knows when the market was selling off hard in June and July we did get those oversold rallies, how come we are not getting overbought selloffs....seems like the bulls get everything they want. I know good things like this eventually come to an end, but when of course is anyones guess. <br />And to think I was bullish on this market under 11k back in July haha...<br /><br />Trader 2006.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-4623656265688817392006-11-16T10:21:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:21:00.000-08:00Anon, what else are you shorting? may be I will th...Anon, what else are you shorting? may be I will think about buying those :-)<br /><br />Just sit on the side line or buy some shares, this is no time to short ANY stockAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33468731222894608822006-11-16T10:14:00.000-08:002006-11-16T10:14:00.000-08:00I cannot belive this market.
I shorted Rimm at 80...I cannot belive this market.<br /><br />I shorted Rimm at 80, 100, 110, 120 and 128 and now 134<br /><br />I am insane!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-57176825671480879862006-11-16T08:28:00.000-08:002006-11-16T08:28:00.000-08:007:40am I noticed the same thing....nearing 30 yet ...7:40am I noticed the same thing....nearing 30 yet the ceo says he sees no rebound in housing anytime soon, i dont comprehend that at all. Homebuilders all coming back up again..XHB above 35.....<br /><br />Trader 2006Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-67067894462048312822006-11-16T08:02:00.000-08:002006-11-16T08:02:00.000-08:00bond John ... your insights would be valid if bond...bond John ... your insights would be valid if bonds weren't so damn over-valued. You're using a faulty compass to navigate, but it looks like you are not alone, as many have been buying stocks based on this mis-placed math.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-58318710319114298462006-11-16T07:40:00.000-08:002006-11-16T07:40:00.000-08:00surprise surprise
TOL will be pegged to 30 for th...surprise surprise<br /><br />TOL will be pegged to 30 for this options expiration. Isn't there a way to fight these mother fu**ing wall street crooksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com