tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post9075162466754649193..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: Nattering NabobsTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-87116280444267834682007-06-15T14:50:00.000-07:002007-06-15T14:50:00.000-07:00thank you tim for your reply - i had read that pos...thank you tim for your reply - i had read that post, but it escaped my memory..........<BR/><BR/>i would like to address the revenge post first. you say you felt cheated by missing out on the "madness" as i shall characterize it - well, given your disposition, i assume you played the market from late 2000 onward from the short-side. A 50% correction wasn't enough? Personally, i was looking for the 61.8% decline, but it didnt happen - lord did i try even after the july lows to push it down, but it was tough sledding. then the war boom began - this is a war rally - just like in olden times (IMO). so, given that this blog began in 05 - and the post you referred me to, you were still bearish when the war began? <BR/><BR/>rational - we as a nation are fat, dumb and happy. i will agree with you on that. however, have you noticed? the U.S. market is lagging all other markets. so, there's your justification. still though, our political system, as it tends towards protectionism and socialism is still the freest (politically) of the developed nations. as long we don't overtax those fat dumb and happys' they'll spend it, and create incentives for the masses to finally join them. as an aside, western europe is benefiting greatly from lifting up eastern europe (IMO). thats why i think those fat, dumb, old, and happy markets are rallying. <BR/><BR/>i can't really address the personality issues - those are your own. but "unconventional", as you put it, was being long this entire time. why? the only retail traders left after the carnage had a predisposition to the bear side - thats what got us here. so, actually i believe, you were being "conventional" in believing the bull couldn't go on. <BR/><BR/>where we are now - personally, IMO, we still have a long-term potential double top in the S&P. i would need to see a meaningful breakout to around 1800 for me to believe that the market as a whole has broken out. - thats what i don't get. after the war rally broke out, i figured the S&P could make a run toward the old top - here we are - we have yet to eclipse the highs. i say 1800 because 1600 is just euphoria from "leaving it all behind". 1800 - will be meaningful. why? because we could easily drop 20% from there (classic definition of a bear market) and bottom out around here or slightly lower, and be in good shape, technically over the long haul. <BR/><BR/>what i can't figure out from the archives - and looking back to the 70s, where we broke to new highs only to come back down again several times. this is our first go at the old highs. so from 05 onward - the fact that we couldn't even make a long-term double top is hard for me to believe that it didn't cross your mind. <BR/><BR/>so, with that in mind, given the back up in rates - i can see us pushing towards 1600 - and still have double top. and we could push down 30-40% if inflation runs away from us. i'm guarded, but i'm bullish. i have to be. and until the market tells me otherwise - i have to play it that way.<BR/><BR/>to be honest - the way stocks shrugged off the bear in bond land tells me we could get real nutty this summer. you said you were a long term chartist. and we could see a long - wide range that could keep us hemmed in still. <BR/><BR/>well - thats my take.<BR/><BR/>thanks tim. you do rock! i gots mad love for ya bro.Horace Kenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11089711200880505084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-66778850808189115102007-06-15T14:31:00.000-07:002007-06-15T14:31:00.000-07:00My goodness, solar stocks, their charts, look very...My goodness, solar stocks, their charts, look very very BEAUTIFUL. More than just beautiful, it's GORGEOUS!!!!<BR/><BR/>SPWR<BR/>TSL<BR/>FSLR<BR/>STPbeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-16847067799793087102007-06-15T14:27:00.000-07:002007-06-15T14:27:00.000-07:00Nobody likes AKAM more than this guy:www.beanie111...Nobody likes AKAM more than this guy:<BR/><BR/>www.beanie11111.blogspot.combeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2051017014475121552007-06-15T14:25:00.000-07:002007-06-15T14:25:00.000-07:00It was Cisco that kept the market afloat second ha...It was Cisco that kept the market afloat second half of last year. Now it looks like the torch is passed to Intel.<BR/><BR/>Big tidal wave Bullami comin your way to wash out the shorts?<BR/><BR/>Stay tuned.....beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-49796052917550303422007-06-15T14:11:00.000-07:002007-06-15T14:11:00.000-07:00nicely said, I recognize your point of view! Help...nicely said, I recognize your point of view! Helps me stay grounded! The chart is the chart, make the market work for you!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12617708441063009845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-88644233846058905192007-06-15T13:38:00.000-07:002007-06-15T13:38:00.000-07:00wow, INTC on fire!!!!!!!!!! 150 million shares tr...wow, INTC on fire!!!!!!!!!! 150 million shares traded today!!!!<BR/><BR/>wow!!!!<BR/><BR/><BR/>With Intel leading the way, it would really be surprising if the market tanks next week. Really surprising.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Good luck.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-36279472590309308112007-06-15T11:47:00.000-07:002007-06-15T11:47:00.000-07:00RUT didn't fool me this time. Went long and have ...RUT didn't fool me this time. Went long and have had a couple of nice days. Just go with the trend. Just as she slips down (smart money to the doors?) the crowd (new money and doubters) come to the rescue. We'll see if we hit a round of new highs in the S&P, Dow and Russ2 next week.<BR/>Ready for the next rocket stage to blast us up again. The only thing that makes sense is to ride the mighty missile.Auggiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891551288307318369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47340587253660727242007-06-15T11:39:00.000-07:002007-06-15T11:39:00.000-07:00I didn't think it was possible for nattering nabob...I didn't think it was possible for nattering nabobs to make insightful comments.Author Egohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12201256175903338049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-71243994238251115992007-06-15T11:13:00.000-07:002007-06-15T11:13:00.000-07:00"I aint no hater. I just have a hard time understa..."I aint no hater. I just have a hard time understanding how such a smart guy like yourself keeps fighting the tape for over two years."<BR/><BR/>I suggest you read<BR/><A HREF="http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/03/why-i-am-bear.html" REL="nofollow">Why I am a Bear</A>Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-15033814813015735082007-06-15T10:59:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:59:00.000-07:00TSL has a wonderful chart that any bull will drool...TSL has a wonderful chart that any bull will drool over. Go long.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-16799459519804322002007-06-15T10:48:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:48:00.000-07:00Solar stocks leaders STP, FSLR, SPWR, TSL are fly...Solar stocks leaders STP, FSLR, SPWR, TSL are flyin! They are incredibly cheap stocks. No serious love yet, but i am pretty confident the masses will eventually love them to death.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-66591919745585844852007-06-15T10:43:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:43:00.000-07:00market speculator,i luv ya man. Love Tim too.Just...market speculator,<BR/><BR/>i luv ya man. Love Tim too.<BR/><BR/>Just havin fun with da bears is all.<BR/><BR/>:)beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-26115943585848416652007-06-15T10:33:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:33:00.000-07:00beanie11111 - why the hostility?Where is the love?...beanie11111 - why the hostility?<BR/><BR/>Where is the love?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-65328867554293315892007-06-15T10:31:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:31:00.000-07:00If the QQQQ doesn't close the gap soon, DA BEARS C...If the QQQQ doesn't close the gap soon, DA BEARS CAN ALL BEND OVER AND SQUEEZE THEIR ANKLES!beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33519539875683063982007-06-15T10:28:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:28:00.000-07:00I should change my blog name to 'The Slope of Desp...I should change my blog name to 'The Slope of Despair'? lolbeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-31439821314097272452007-06-15T10:26:00.000-07:002007-06-15T10:26:00.000-07:00My friends, you really need to be in TSL if and wh...My friends, you really need to be in TSL if and when it breaks $44, the prelude to a monster rally.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-78785895477787274112007-06-15T09:27:00.000-07:002007-06-15T09:27:00.000-07:00"Hmmm, not so sure about that. I admit that maybe ..."Hmmm, not so sure about that. I admit that maybe some profit taking will take it lower for a while, but the intrinsic value of Apple will go to 140 this year."<BR/><BR/>Philipe: You are making my case. This is exactly what I'm counting on. The plan to get in lower for the ride to 140. Could be foolish timing strategy but it's worth a try. And the market is quite overbought now so a re-test of 115 is very possible.Damarketmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17531801475223783968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-24175903264119110642007-06-15T09:25:00.000-07:002007-06-15T09:25:00.000-07:00My index short hedge got stopped out today on the ...My index short hedge got stopped out today on the big run up. I am guessing all the index put buyers from last downturn got knocked out also with hefty losses.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-79889775625859591992007-06-15T09:24:00.000-07:002007-06-15T09:24:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-83896205375590533502007-06-15T08:53:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:53:00.000-07:00"APL will selloff on the release of the iPhone. Ba..."APL will selloff on the release of the iPhone. Bank on it! It's the biggest 'buy on rumor and sell on news' out there. Believe it!"<BR/><BR/>Hmmm, not so sure about that. I admit that maybe some profit taking will take it lower for a while, but the intrinsic value of Apple will go to 140 this year. You can bank on that, because Stevie still has some things up his sleeve. iPhone is not the end.philippehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10254150515302359826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-22049078585812450032007-06-15T08:48:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:48:00.000-07:00philippe,AAPL will selloff on the release of the i...philippe,<BR/><BR/>AAPL will selloff on the release of the iPhone. Bank on it! It's the biggest 'buy on rumor and sell on news' out there. Believe it!beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-70551512622116665552007-06-15T08:47:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:47:00.000-07:00Big Bullami comin this year to take away the short...Big Bullami comin this year to take away the shorts. lolbeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-43171098017119333702007-06-15T08:44:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:44:00.000-07:00Damarketman, you disappoint me. You already sold y...Damarketman, you disappoint me. You already sold your AAPL calls? While you still have all this time until October?<BR/>In August or September all glitches will have been ironed out of the iPhone and it will become obvious what kind of success it is. Better buy them back fast.philippehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10254150515302359826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-58240056546716033202007-06-15T08:11:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:11:00.000-07:00actually, tims head and shoulders pattern for shor...actually, tims head and shoulders pattern for shorting is by far the best pattern. It confirms the downtrend in price...but as far as picking tops for stocks that is a deadman's game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-76419812214421934512007-06-15T08:08:00.000-07:002007-06-15T08:08:00.000-07:00Robert,Absolutely correct. I don't expect a top un...Robert,<BR/>Absolutely correct. I don't expect a top until I see the volume completely dry up in the QID's and SDS's. Right now there is still huge volume as the amateurs continue to try and pick a top.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.com