tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post6322935781959997895..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: Do We HAVE to Have a Bounce?Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-70131587686983785532007-06-22T12:34:00.000-07:002007-06-22T12:34:00.000-07:00Hey Tim, looks like you must be having a field day...Hey Tim, looks like you must be having a field day! Congrats! Will have to review the situation this week but so far I don't think my latest market TA review I worked on last night will be impacted. Lots of volatiliy in the coming months though but I remain sligthly more bullish than bearish. The full details are on my blog if you and others are interested. BKX is a big problem though today so I'm ready as never before to join your camp if required. No need to jump the gun! Have fun!<BR/><BR/>TomThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05710072396787957091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47134265801575494992007-06-21T17:35:00.000-07:002007-06-21T17:35:00.000-07:00WOW - with the SOX jumping into new 52 week high t...WOW - with the SOX jumping into new 52 week high territory and the NASDAQ coming through today on higher volume...<BR/><BR/>WOWAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-49955009298429324372007-06-21T15:21:00.000-07:002007-06-21T15:21:00.000-07:00I bought the 50 strike so not to worried. I have m...I bought the 50 strike so not to worried. I have my stop loss so if the Q's trade up another 1%, I'm wrong and out with only 5k in losses. This is a risk I am willing to take as the gain will be 10k-15k if executed properly. I am risking money only I can afford to lose in the trading account.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-10144093760440940602007-06-21T15:15:00.000-07:002007-06-21T15:15:00.000-07:00New equity,I hope you're not trading too large a p...New equity,<BR/>I hope you're not trading too large a position size with that 100 put purchase. If the Q's jump .70 tomorrow will you not be hurt? Remember the market can do anything so even though this sounds unlikely it could happen. Will you be OK if those puts get cut in half?Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-24370981239273250152007-06-21T15:06:00.000-07:002007-06-21T15:06:00.000-07:00Yes we are in agreement. There is a striking resem...Yes we are in agreement. There is a striking resemblance if you look at the drop in February compared to the action over the last two days. Next leg should be down and it will come quick if history repeats itself.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-11543860557788261202007-06-21T15:02:00.000-07:002007-06-21T15:02:00.000-07:00"Closed out some longs for some hefty gains and gr..."Closed out some longs for some hefty gains and grabbed 100 QQQQ puts. Ready for a swift move back down tomorrow and yes I am calling a top to this irrational market. Will cover on the first big down move."<BR/><BR/>Oh my God, newequity and I are totally in agreement. Alert the media!Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-45704526820536852562007-06-21T14:56:00.000-07:002007-06-21T14:56:00.000-07:00assetstrategists, I wasn't suggesting to jump into...assetstrategists, I wasn't suggesting to jump into the uranium stocks this second - just that I don't see these hitting any resistance any time soon and URRE is up like 150% since Feb.; USU did a double from Jan to May. These stocks are rockin'.yurihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06039221453999948743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-959652490024235822007-06-21T13:57:00.000-07:002007-06-21T13:57:00.000-07:00SMH breaking out too. I think someone has kidnapp...SMH breaking out too. I think someone has kidnapped New Equity and is forcing him to type misinfo.<BR/><BR/>Probably TTT Tommy.JakeGinthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10979786800235676920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-60697938012080550822007-06-21T12:52:00.000-07:002007-06-21T12:52:00.000-07:00SOX moving...breaking out infact. newequity you s...SOX moving...breaking out infact. newequity you sure you want to be on the bear side of things?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-61780505480421086522007-06-21T12:47:00.000-07:002007-06-21T12:47:00.000-07:00I was expecting down day today (after little jump ...I was expecting down day today (after little jump during mid day). Glad that I covered rest of my shorts in the morning. I opened some shorts when QQQQ were at 47.60 which are kinda red now but tomorrow can bring good news. Overall, trades in this week are not bad.<BR/><BR/>Bulls are kicking Bears balls once again and we are reaching top of trading rage so we should go down tomorrow.Controlled Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07968133609765271053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-87710598358406203512007-06-21T12:43:00.000-07:002007-06-21T12:43:00.000-07:00Closed out some longs for some hefty gains and gra...Closed out some longs for some hefty gains and grabbed 100 QQQQ puts. Ready for a swift move back down tomorrow and yes I am calling a top to this irrational market. Will cover on the first big down move.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-62004421349653468472007-06-21T12:36:00.000-07:002007-06-21T12:36:00.000-07:00While I love that Livermore book (even the archaic...While I love that Livermore book (even the archaic language is entertaining!), perhaps the best quote in it is not from Jesse, but from Lord Rothschild... something about how he got rich by "never getting in at the bottom, and never getting out at the top," but maneuvering in that safer 60% area (between the 20% top and bottom) and safely guarding principal.<BR/><BR/>Like in a lot of endeavors, this game becomes a heck of a lot more profitable when one learns to suborn one's ego. No easy task, I'll be the first to admit.JakeGinthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10979786800235676920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-54991695621946380352007-06-21T11:53:00.000-07:002007-06-21T11:53:00.000-07:00"Also, what do you mean the “last year has been wo..."Also, what do you mean the “last year has been worse” than ‘01-‘03? Do you mean to suggest that we are in a recession?"<BR/><BR/>No not at all, I strictly meant in my line of work, [homebuilding/genral contracting].<BR/><BR/>I must have misunderstood you then in your first post because I completely agree pullbacks are absolutely necessary for a healthy market. Parabolic runs always end badly for most. <BR/><BR/>I would like to see some correction if for no other reason than to get out of this trading range we're stuck in now [and probably will be for awhile.] <BR/><BR/>Great point with the Livermore comment as well. I couldn't agree more. I dont mind trading either way, up or down, but I like to be sure of trend direction when I do. <BR/><BR/>If and when the bear comes I most definately want to profit from it, because it will most likely be the only bright spot in my finances at that point, but with what money I trade with, the profits will pale in comparision to the loss of my income and damage to retirement accounts. <BR/>I think that will be true with most americans as well was my point.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08199870641869177070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-32754905236930925632007-06-21T11:43:00.000-07:002007-06-21T11:43:00.000-07:00Aren't we? I mean I watch NBC news all the time a...Aren't we? I mean I watch NBC news all the time and they tell me the world is about to end. Unless of course we elect Hillary Clinton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-78725240423925667392007-06-21T11:04:00.000-07:002007-06-21T11:04:00.000-07:00Plunger, putting all your other points aside: I do...Plunger, putting all your other points aside: I do not "wish," as it were, for a bear market. I’m pointing out how markets that go up as if in perpetuity tend to crush more people than those that have normal, healthy pullbacks or, alas, bearish phases. Look at the Shanghai Index. How do you think that’s going to end? Hell must to be paid, Plunger, one way or the other. <BR/><BR/>“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” –Jesse Livermore<BR/><BR/>Also, what do you mean the “last year has been worse” than ‘01-‘03? Do you mean to suggest that we are in a recession?Author Egohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12201256175903338049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-81530333104274108042007-06-21T11:02:00.000-07:002007-06-21T11:02:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Author Egohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12201256175903338049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-43481781934616536172007-06-21T10:38:00.000-07:002007-06-21T10:38:00.000-07:00Plunger,Excellent point and one I've been trying t...Plunger,<BR/>Excellent point and one I've been trying to get across for a long time. So what if you miss the first 5% of the bear market. If the market goes down 20-30% you are still going to make great profits even if you only catch 80% of the move. Continually trying to call the top however is and will eventually reduce your account to the point where you won't have much capital left to profit from the bear when it does come. As I've said before the only way that I know of to have any success at all calling tops is to wait for the COT report to signal that the big boys are selling too. TA has failed for almost 5 years now. The COT has signaled every intermediate top so far except the 03 top. The commercials remained long throughout the correction in 04 and were eventually proven correct.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-25868945469856731832007-06-21T10:33:00.000-07:002007-06-21T10:33:00.000-07:00Wow, exciting up day.Wow, exciting up day.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-3564540525558973862007-06-21T10:24:00.000-07:002007-06-21T10:24:00.000-07:00Tim said,"I've been dead-flat wrong on that for ab...Tim said,<BR/>"I've been dead-flat wrong on that for about the past year, and that hurts. But that's what my analysis continues to tell me."<BR/><BR/>If your analysis has been so wrong, why do you continue to use it? <BR/><BR/>You seem to be a very intelligent person and A pretty damn good technician, but your timing is horrible. I believe when the bear comes, you will be rewarded greatly, but why continue to try and jump the gun and get the exact top? Why not wait for confimation of a top, dow, elliot, something, and then plunge? The market will continue to go up or down long after what is considered a reasonable point before reversing. Why not ride it out?JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08199870641869177070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-69983519521565369762007-06-21T10:13:00.000-07:002007-06-21T10:13:00.000-07:00I have to agree with gary on this one, for most am...I have to agree with gary on this one, for most americans a recession is bad no matter what is happening in the markets. I am a somewhat active trader [small time compared to most here I'm sure] and the little money I could make on the bear side would in no way make up for lost income, higher prices and the consequences of a true recession. I enjoy trading up and down, but in no way am hoping for a true bear market. Hell, 2001-2003 was hard enough in my line of work, and the last year has been worse.<BR/><BR/>And author ego, you're wrong, bear markets are not good. The economy and businesses are cyclical and in being so the market follows, not vice versa, so when the bear markets hit, it means the economy sucks, which is bad for most. Yes, it is natural for the ebb and flow of innovation and business, but that still does not make it "good" to live thru those times. <BR/><BR/>Now as tim said, when it does come [ and it will ] ,sure we all want to be on the right side of it, but I still don't WANT it to happen, just to "keep from delaying it". <BR/><BR/>Be careful what you wish for you just may get it.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08199870641869177070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-88123375427671691702007-06-21T10:10:00.000-07:002007-06-21T10:10:00.000-07:00well, I guess at some point you'll be on the right...well, I guess at some point you'll be on the right side.<BR/><BR/>I'm GOD by the way and I read your blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-66278665237364762572007-06-21T09:46:00.000-07:002007-06-21T09:46:00.000-07:00"Do you really wish for a bear market? You do real..."Do you really wish for a bear market? You do realize that a severe bear market will cause a lot of hardship for most Americans. If we get a bear market I will short but I would most certainly not pray to God for it to happen. Your not really that saddistic toward your fellow man are you?"<BR/><BR/>It's spelled sadistic.<BR/><BR/>And do you really think God reads this blog? He's got bigger fish to fry.<BR/><BR/>I don't wish for a bear market. I wish to be on the right SIDE of the market. And my analysis tells me the side to be on is bearish.<BR/><BR/>I've been dead-flat wrong on that for about the past year, and that hurts. But that's what my analysis continues to tell me.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-22170026787071663792007-06-21T08:08:00.000-07:002007-06-21T08:08:00.000-07:00Gary, with all the respect that you're due, the pr...Gary, with all the respect that you're due, the prism through which you're looking at this is all wrong. Bear markets are good. Bull markets are good. We need both; people get rich, people get hurt, be it bear or bull. That's how it is. Praying a bear doesn't happen is, to my mind, much more callous as, in the long run, even more people will end up getting hurt, the pain would have just been delayed.Author Egohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12201256175903338049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-23145900647689550292007-06-21T08:02:00.000-07:002007-06-21T08:02:00.000-07:00So what about those who foolishly go out and lever...So what about those who foolishly go out and levere themselves to the hilt because of Greed...you feel bad?<BR/><BR/>I agree, those who are not directly involved in the market that get railroaded in a recession should be felt sorry for...but those who are greedy on the ride up and get foolish I do not feel sorry for. Its all about understanding consequences of your actions, if you do not understand pros and cons of a particular action you should not be involved. What ever happened to taking ownership of your actions??? Seems like ppl just want to blame GWB or someone else for their problems.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-30537787835125895992007-06-21T06:35:00.000-07:002007-06-21T06:35:00.000-07:00I'm just saying a severe bear market and accompani...I'm just saying a severe bear market and accompaning recession will cause severe hardships. Sure you might win on your shorts but at the same time you might lose your job. Nobody wins in a bear market. The winner is the one who loses the least. I remember the last severe bear market in 74. There was high unemployment. Quite a few homeless people wandering the streets. Not exactly something I would wish on my fellow man just so I could make a little money on some short positions. Yes I would much rather the economy stayed strong and the greedy as you call them made more money. That being said we will most assuredly have a bear market in the future I just won't be begging God for it.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.com