tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post4840732398620244241..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: B.T.D. or ABC?Tim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33714752637684038972007-04-15T19:44:00.000-07:002007-04-15T19:44:00.000-07:00EWT- If you go to 5 min levels for the quick buck-...EWT- <BR/>If you go to 5 min levels for the quick buck-you wont find it!<BR/><BR/>Take a little time...read this and draw your own conclusions. Leave your position and your emotions at home.<BR/><BR/>Here we go:<BR/><BR/>32-37 = one<BR/>37-38/42(double bottom) = two<BR/>42-66 = three<BR/>66-74 = four<BR/>74-87 = five (and completion of master "3" as in 1932-1987) = 55 years<BR/> <BR/>To explain 87-07 we have to jump one degree higher:<BR/> <BR/>1914 (dow 53) to 1929 = one (ratio 7.284906)<BR/>1929 to 1932 = two<BR/>1932 to 1987 (see above) = three<BR/>1987/87 = the crash = four<BR/>1987 bottom to 2007 = five ( low close 87 = 1738.7 x 7.284906= 12666.26 !!! WE HAD 2 CONSECUTIVE CLOSES AT THAT EXACT LEVEL ON FEB 6 +7)<BR/> <BR/>Now lets move back to the entire history of the Dow (and the "start of capitalism as we know it") in 1896 (110 years- but it will only take 11 mins to read)<BR/> <BR/>1896-1929; 33 years (more precisely: 12,000 days) = Wave 1<BR/>1929-32/33 = Wave 2<BR/>1933-66; 33 years (12,000 days) = Wave 3<BR/>1966/74; = Wave 4 <BR/>1974=2007 = 33 years (12,000 days) on Oct 03, 2007<BR/>Thats for timing<BR/> <BR/>now the price:<BR/> <BR/>1896-1929 consists of a 1up-2down-3up<BR/>first leg ratio 3.655075<BR/>interim correction : 57% of prior up<BR/>REPEAT 1978 (742) TO 1987 RATIO: 3.655075 = TGT 2712 (HI CLOSE 2722!)<BR/>third leg 1914-29 ratio 7.284906<BR/>interim correction (87/87) : 57% of prior up (742-2722) ( 1616 Dow intra day was crash low)<BR/> <BR/>Additionally, subwaves since 2002, 2005,2006 indicated tgt clusters, all ending in the 12,650-12800 area....<BR/> <BR/>So it appears from this analysis that there is "nothing left" to the upside (nevertheless: my safety exit >13k since I have to provide room for my error), based on the above quant. studies.<BR/> <BR/>In summary, Eliott with his limited time horizon for data in , seemed to have got it right.(although his definition of the "3" advance is not that clear (1.618) certainly does not apply,<BR/>but neither does Prechters "retroactive" fifth extension...since it is of no other value than retroactive confirmation.<BR/>But I have found a constant way to figure that one out with amazing precision, typcially > 99%<BR/> <BR/>At this point, I would think 7200/low 6k seems a reasonable objective next, although EWT would suggest significantly lower levels. But we can deal with that when we get there.<BR/> <BR/>So this then is the "fifth" and IMHO final for a 110 year cycle...It does NOT anticipate new highs. (past 12,800) most likely we will stop @ 12571 close or, possibly 12,666 one more time.<BR/> <BR/>And for those who still decry the Dow as the "Old Economy", they might want to think twice: Including dividend re-investment (yes thats the cashout that one doesnt see anymore <BR/>in the Index) the Dow is up 50x off the base of 570 in 1974. Anybody who still invests in NAZ w/o a penny of DVD might want to consider that for the naz should be approximately<BR/>at 5,000 to be at parity with the Dow... So the Old Economy seems to be alive and well, and so is the "Old Europe", whereas Mr. Rumsfeld is gone....(I judged from your<BR/>videos that you have a sense of humor)<BR/> <BR/>Enjoy, and I totally invite your comments! <BR/> <BR/>And for the charts to proof what I say to to www.prophet.net JavachartsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-60308179246171198452007-04-15T19:04:00.000-07:002007-04-15T19:04:00.000-07:0004-06 chart $rut...W 3 can NEVER be the shortest o...04-06 chart $rut...<BR/>W 3 can NEVER be the shortest one!!<BR/>Even Prechter knows that!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-13697387286048928052007-04-13T18:22:00.000-07:002007-04-13T18:22:00.000-07:00Agreed !! Looks so good when looking at past data....Agreed !! Looks so good when looking at past data. Lost enough sleep myself trying to figure out the proper wave count. <BR/><BR/> Ken<BR/><BR/>Anonymous said... <BR/>What is nice about Elliottwave is it is always correct. They have what is called alternates. If the prefered read is up, an Elliottwaver will also have an alternate probablity which is usualy just the oposite. In the example the prefered count is up the alternate is down. Then regardless of direction, it was called correctly in one count or another. <BR/><BR/>5:56 PMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-74541311296929427382007-04-13T17:56:00.000-07:002007-04-13T17:56:00.000-07:00What is nice about Elliottwave is it is always cor...What is nice about Elliottwave is it is always correct. They have what is called alternates. If the prefered read is up, an Elliottwaver will also have an alternate probablity which is usualy just the oposite. In the example the prefered count is up the alternate is down. Then regardless of direction, it was called correctly in one count or another.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-14531854414719838862007-04-13T17:34:00.000-07:002007-04-13T17:34:00.000-07:00Trader time, wrong again,.. When will you admit to...Trader time, wrong again,.. When will you admit to being wrong earlier with regards to your bearish predictions and puts? Why are you still in denial?<BR/><BR/>Stop being a n00b and admit to your errors.<BR/><BR/>Why do you keep relying on technical analysis while oblivious to fundementals, which is what really drives this market? <BR/><BR/>Anyweay best of luck cause yoru gonan need it.tradertimehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13137238347602816976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-56239366685607929152007-04-13T17:17:00.000-07:002007-04-13T17:17:00.000-07:00The DJ Industrials & DIA crossed the 78.6% retrace...The DJ Industrials & DIA crossed the 78.6% retrace line from the Feb high. <BR/>Monday looks like a down day. Bulls need a break.<BR/><BR/>ACAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1018952785366020022007-04-13T17:09:00.000-07:002007-04-13T17:09:00.000-07:00TestTestAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-7534562355240881952007-04-13T16:27:00.000-07:002007-04-13T16:27:00.000-07:00JakeGintYour right about the liquidity...But it wo...JakeGint<BR/><BR/>Your right about the liquidity...<BR/>But it works both ways. <BR/>All that liquidity did not help in that quick Feb 28 decline.<BR/><BR/>IMO I don't think we are going to have any typical bear markets for a while. (A typical bear market being one that goes down slowly over time - month after month)<BR/><BR/>Instead we are going to have violent drops - coming out of nowhere. <BR/><BR/>Buying Puts to try to profit from any decline will be useless because of the time decay - it would be like throwing a dart at a calendar date in the future trying to guess when the sharp drop will come. <BR/><BR/>And since the drops will be so <BR/>sharp - the bears won't have a chance to react - it will all be over in the blink of an eye.<BR/><BR/>Sharp drops draw in buyers - because everyone sees it is going up next. This is what was orchestrated on Mar 13 - unfortunately more short sellers fell for the trap - so the markets are going higher.<BR/><BR/><BR/>The real program is not the US market - as I mentioned it is in fact 25% undervalued fundamentally.<BR/><BR/>The problem is record speculation and mania for commodities.<BR/><BR/>Now we have just out a $1Billion dollar Molybdenum fund (thats bizzare) and NMX just announced that Uranium futures are coming. <BR/><BR/>Whats next an ETF for Einsteinium or Californium or maybe one for Isotope-20 Berylium.<BR/><BR/>Yah - I'm going long 10 contracts of radioactive materials and short the SPY - that makes a lot of sense. Investors are screwed up.<BR/><BR/>I'll wait patiently - if anything goes into a bear later this year - it will be commodity related.<BR/><BR/>Good Trading<BR/><BR/>TradeitLikeitIsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-61960425712168584712007-04-13T14:36:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:36:00.000-07:00There was some Prechter talk lately. I am a subsc...There was some Prechter talk lately. I am a subscriber, just got the latest update. Like all bears they are slowly being beaten into submission. Fri Mar 30 we were supposed to be just entering some kind of violent wave 3 down. Then the market rallied for 5 straight days and took out the March highs, so we were still in 2 up. Now with new recovery highs this week in all indices they are waffling again and saying 50/50 we a)test/eclipse the Feb highs or b)give the bears their fantasy and roll over in violent wave 3 down. Can you imagine trying to profitably trade those views? Just goes to show that analysts try to predict the market, real traders react.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-41315308705205277592007-04-13T14:29:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:29:00.000-07:00according to http://shortsqueeze.com/index.php?sym...according to http://shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=csco&submit=Enter<BR/><BR/>There is almost 55 million shares short as of march, which most likely has significantly increased since then.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-11766713746246594002007-04-13T14:14:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:14:00.000-07:00TradeitLikeitis and AnonymousGuywithQuestionableLa...TradeitLikeitis and AnonymousGuywithQuestionableLanguage:<BR/><BR/>Did you see that short cover on Cisco at about 2:45... almost twenty million shares traded in fifteen minutes.... and then another 8.5 mm in the the next fifteen....<BR/><BR/>The liquidity of these markets is staggering... another reason for tough bear sledding...JakeGinthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10979786800235676920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-64985017381352624442007-04-13T14:07:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:07:00.000-07:00RE: QQQQ's... my fib picture from the Feb tops to...RE: QQQQ's... my fib picture from the Feb tops to the March bottoms show us real close to the 78.6% retrace line, and consequently, that full retrace will close the gap from that initial downplunge... <BR/><BR/>Could be interesting Monday.<BR/><BR/>__________________<BR/><BR/>The secret word is "pmaomzq" which Borat will tell you is "pumper" in Kazahkistanese.JakeGinthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10979786800235676920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-80358288084468831212007-04-13T13:49:00.000-07:002007-04-13T13:49:00.000-07:00maybe BTD should be Bullish Till Dead. that's how ...maybe BTD should be Bullish Till Dead. that's how the market looks like up, up and up 10 up out of 11. this is unheard of inspite of inflation and lower confidence #'s<BR/>next week will be "Bulls To Die"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-40428252404531715222007-04-13T13:22:00.000-07:002007-04-13T13:22:00.000-07:00Has anyone noticed, Cisco said fuck you CNBC and w...Has anyone noticed, Cisco said fuck you CNBC and went to Bloomberg. No surprise, last time when Cisco announced results in feb, those bastards at CNBC were recommending people to buy everything else on Cisco's boom, and ironically never ever mentioned Cisco. On the contrary, they said Cisco already had run up. I can bet that the fucking GE hedge fund is short CSCO till the last penny, and will now have to pay. Just look at the projected earnings of Cisco and you will know. Fucking oil companies are trading at higher multiples than most tech companies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-83461467453449246872007-04-13T13:13:00.000-07:002007-04-13T13:13:00.000-07:00everyone including the parents were waiting for th...everyone including the parents were waiting for this rally. believe me short tim it is far from over pall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-17328967974153715042007-04-13T12:44:00.000-07:002007-04-13T12:44:00.000-07:00Tim,We need your enough is enough statement like l...Tim,<BR/><BR/>We need your enough is enough statement like last year May.<BR/><BR/>I remembered after you capitulated around May last year then market crashed.<BR/><BR/>Please post prediction post such as Dow will Fall 1000 point by next week or something.<BR/><BR/>Thank you<BR/><BR/>Angry dead Bear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-73232059018705100882007-04-13T12:43:00.000-07:002007-04-13T12:43:00.000-07:00You see the market was waiting for something and t...You see the market was waiting for something and then Bang! - there it is CISCO.<BR/><BR/>Take a look at the heavy block sells against it all morning -and it was still up. Others like AAPL did not even blink and stayed down.<BR/><BR/>Everyone who works the street knew this was coming - they know through the grapevine which PR's are coming out - that's why we were up on a Friday.<BR/><BR/>If you believe there will be volatility next week - then short afer the Monday morning Takeover hype.<BR/><BR/>good tradingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-44091948409075134302007-04-13T11:55:00.000-07:002007-04-13T11:55:00.000-07:00Looks like the Bulls win again this week.Looks like the Bulls win again this week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-24043465871221843802007-04-13T11:52:00.000-07:002007-04-13T11:52:00.000-07:00QQQQ puts are just for hedging in case the highly ...QQQQ puts are just for hedging in case the highly vaselined Doug Kass wins.<BR/><BR/>JASO is flyin!! $26 on mondaybeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-75655686858525466262007-04-13T11:05:00.000-07:002007-04-13T11:05:00.000-07:00another BTD day, closing in on Feb 26th level.another BTD day, closing in on Feb 26th level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-28126382537942195822007-04-13T11:00:00.000-07:002007-04-13T11:00:00.000-07:00beanie is holding those puts that are going to exp...beanie is holding those puts that are going to expire haha. lmfao at this guy who buys puts at bottoms and buys calls at tops.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-78168745361154252232007-04-13T10:57:00.000-07:002007-04-13T10:57:00.000-07:00QQQQ's if oil and commodities don't make any big d...QQQQ's if oil and commodities don't make any big downward moves next week they'll probably try to pin the QQQQ's between 44 and 45 again. If they can't they they'll be a large move and go with that.<BR/><BR/>So looks like the Central banks are taking a holiday supressing gold today - so is at a sucker rally - or for real?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33677486949749063372007-04-13T10:14:00.000-07:002007-04-13T10:14:00.000-07:00Beanie, No offence but, what about the QQQQ puts y...Beanie, No offence but, what about the QQQQ puts you said to buy at $42 some time ago. And the others that are in the tank. I can't add it all up but it seems to me that you must be break even to a big loss based on your rec's. Or pumping may be a better word for it.wattson7https://www.blogger.com/profile/08629650122155184870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-43069801232666118932007-04-13T09:57:00.000-07:002007-04-13T09:57:00.000-07:00take that bears, nice rally for all you moron put ...take that bears, nice rally for all you moron put buyers......matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-53388073819376419962007-04-13T08:55:00.000-07:002007-04-13T08:55:00.000-07:00remember ASTI - the next TIE?another solar stockremember ASTI - the next TIE?<BR/><BR/>another solar stockbeanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.com