tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post4109545620616089109..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: The RangeTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-59330765151616012302007-07-05T13:48:00.000-07:002007-07-05T13:48:00.000-07:00Not liking transpo stocks...first sign of weakness...Not liking transpo stocks...first sign of weakness and these stocks head straight for the door....I try to hand them their hat, but they are in just such a hurry...<BR/>CSX at 47...needs it’s hat...<BR/>XAL...53 double top...asking for hat too...<BR/>The bad news....<BR/>we get a summer rally... dow at 14,100 coming to a theatre, soon...zstock7.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09338581248141865147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-87338344334579067902007-07-05T13:21:00.000-07:002007-07-05T13:21:00.000-07:00I get the feelin the markets gonna fly tomorrow.Be...I get the feelin the markets gonna fly tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>Be ready.<BR/><BR/>Mad-As-Hell-Bears, please don't pray for nuclear devastation. It's just not right.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-45980028683410474462007-07-05T13:13:00.000-07:002007-07-05T13:13:00.000-07:00john,my god, don't you think RIMM already pulled b...john,<BR/><BR/>my god, don't you think RIMM already pulled back yesterday when it traded to $207? I can't see the big boys slammin this down below $200, especially when it's been trading above $200 for several days now. That tells me the boys are interested in taking this monster higher. Next stop $250.<BR/><BR/>If the stock goes higher tomorrow, you need to be in! If it goes lower, then you can wait.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-7065787987135258162007-07-05T13:10:00.000-07:002007-07-05T13:10:00.000-07:00market speculator,JSDA sports a bullish chart for ...market speculator,<BR/><BR/>JSDA sports a bullish chart for the next run. The stock was oversold beyond belief. The gap from 3 months ago got closed.<BR/><BR/>This chart is no different from TSL, which yielded over a 7 bagger had you bought those july 45 calls at 2.20 (or less). Same chart. The only caveat is that JSDA isn't in as hot of a sector as TSL, where solar stocks reign supreme and unstoppable.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-7866436266357745162007-07-05T12:56:00.000-07:002007-07-05T12:56:00.000-07:00Time to rock n roll on this nice chart. - Beanie M...Time to rock n roll on this nice chart. - Beanie <BR/><BR/>My god, this is the worse looking chart for any type of bullish mind. It was bullish in early March NO WHRE NEAR BULLISH NOW. It has done a round trip in 4 months...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2108744866348167592007-07-05T12:42:00.000-07:002007-07-05T12:42:00.000-07:00Gary,Thanks for the lecture. I know how the IPO ma...Gary,<BR/>Thanks for the lecture. I know how the IPO market works. I made a ton of money on googles first earnings announcement thank you. I can make money in the short term and the long term. Too bad your narrow mind thinks the short term is a bad thing.4profithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15754808243067897830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-3672837314722419552007-07-05T12:25:00.000-07:002007-07-05T12:25:00.000-07:00BeanieI like your ideas on RIMM. Don't you expect...Beanie<BR/><BR/>I like your ideas on RIMM. Don't you expect a pullback soon. I'd like to see this before I buy, but like BIDU, I might not get a chance.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00618315014583420559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-11707861823303730042007-07-05T12:19:00.000-07:002007-07-05T12:19:00.000-07:00BX will run like MA! Believe it!Save this post, o...BX will run like MA! Believe it!<BR/><BR/>Save this post, ok?beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-58663009039827242212007-07-05T12:12:00.000-07:002007-07-05T12:12:00.000-07:004profit,Its only been trading 8 days. I would hope...4profit,<BR/>Its only been trading 8 days. I would hope that most of the investors that bought BX have a longer attention span than that. After trading for 3 days goog proceeded to lose almost 10% of its value. So did the original investors that bought on day 3 lose because the stock was volatile or were they big winners if the had a slightly longer investing horizon. Like maybe July 07 for a 600% gain. Americans are so focused on short term gratification nowdays. What a shame. I suppose it will eventually change at some point. it always does.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33026315045168495492007-07-05T11:58:00.000-07:002007-07-05T11:58:00.000-07:00JSDA: you know it ain't gonna stop today. Got mo...JSDA: you know it ain't gonna stop today. Got more to go.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-23508060879273141322007-07-05T11:56:00.000-07:002007-07-05T11:56:00.000-07:00JSDA wants you!!!!Time to rock n roll on this nice...JSDA wants you!!!!<BR/><BR/>Time to rock n roll on this nice chart.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-41040717666540838382007-07-05T11:36:00.000-07:002007-07-05T11:36:00.000-07:00Shorts get reamed by RIMMRIMM currently trades @ 2...Shorts get reamed by RIMM<BR/><BR/>RIMM currently trades @ 214<BR/><BR/>After years of fighting the red tape, China finally allows RIMM to sell the blackberry inside of China. Already 5000 companies have pre-ordered. This i think is huge for RIMM.<BR/><BR/>Buy the stock, or the Sept 220 (around $10) or Sept 230 calls (around $14). The reason for the september calls, instead of July or Aug.? The stock splits 3:1 on August 20th. The september calls allow you to take advantage of the split run.beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-52883287827535832112007-07-05T10:44:00.000-07:002007-07-05T10:44:00.000-07:00BX is really fabulous. IPO opening day high of 38....BX is really fabulous. IPO opening day high of 38. Week later its at 30.48. YAWN.4profithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15754808243067897830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-17993887715056577652007-07-05T10:11:00.000-07:002007-07-05T10:11:00.000-07:00Shorting is like crack...and crack kills.I have be...Shorting is like crack...and crack kills.<BR/><BR/>I have been short MAR and it has been weak relative to the mkt and was a dreamy short until Tues. The HLT news has this thing up about 7% today. I am a deer in the head lights. Not sure if it will come in a little so I can get out.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00618315014583420559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-89841603115151179332007-07-05T10:10:00.000-07:002007-07-05T10:10:00.000-07:00Gary said... Plunger,Maybe I wasn't clear. I meant...Gary said... <BR/>Plunger,<BR/>Maybe I wasn't clear. I meant scalp some small profits on the short side. I was kind of directing my comments to the bears who keep trying to pick a top.<BR/><BR/>....suggesting to trade in the direction the market is moving. <BR/><BR/>5:06 PM <BR/><BR/> I Agree completely, an unwavering, biased opinion of the market is a losers game. And I also agree with the trend trade, much easier and usually, bigger profits when played <EM>with</EM> the trend. I think the market has settled into a range as Tim mentioned in his post, and I'll continiue to wait for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown, but I'll let the market tell me which. <BR/><BR/>All the while I'm actually still holding long stocks [4-5] with protective stops.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08199870641869177070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47199255214168467302007-07-05T06:10:00.000-07:002007-07-05T06:10:00.000-07:00BX on fire this morning.The fact that it didn't go...BX on fire this morning.<BR/><BR/>The fact that it didn't go down after acquiring a $26 billion company is pretty amazing.<BR/><BR/>Keep an eye on it!beanie11111https://www.blogger.com/profile/06849880637739382620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-86709498416265270412007-07-04T17:06:00.000-07:002007-07-04T17:06:00.000-07:00Plunger,Maybe I wasn't clear. I meant scalp some s...Plunger,<BR/>Maybe I wasn't clear. I meant scalp some small profits on the short side. I was kind of directing my comments to the bears who keep trying to pick a top. Sure you might make a little now and then by catching a pullback but it seems very dangerous because you never know when the secular trend will take hold again and erase your profits in the blink of an eye. Just seems much safer to buy the dips that way if you misjudge your timing then the secular trend most likely will save you eventually. Nothing wrong with trading if your good at it I was just suggesting to trade in the direction the market is moving.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-55877282448956674182007-07-04T15:49:00.000-07:002007-07-04T15:49:00.000-07:00"BX buying Hilton. Someone was not surprised by th..."BX buying Hilton. Someone was not surprised by this "<BR/><BR/>Gee, ya think? Take a look at HLT on "quiet" pre 4th of July trading. But people wouldn't buy on inside info would they? I mean after all, that would be illegal . . .<BR/><BR/>As far as that event propping up the entire market - looks like we will open up on thin air. Whether that euphoria holds or not is an entirely different story.BH_Tradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15630047938782804580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47782031255552388102007-07-04T13:22:00.000-07:002007-07-04T13:22:00.000-07:00BX buying Hilton. Someone was not surprised by thi...BX buying Hilton. Someone was not surprised by this and it should add even more upside to the markets come Thursday.matte351https://www.blogger.com/profile/05708332376970508979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-35469944614281891322007-07-04T11:17:00.000-07:002007-07-04T11:17:00.000-07:00"Other than standard index & individual security c...<EM>"Other than standard index & individual security charts do you look at any other data, such as breadth and sentiment indicators? Just curious if your market views are strictly based on price action alone."</EM><BR/><BR/>It is almost entirely price action. I glance at sentiment charts now and then, but to me they border on meaningless. Any graph of so-called contrary indicators looks like an ECG readout from a hospital.<BR/><BR/>I've always back macroeconomic and socionomic (so to speak) information banging around my empty head, but the trading actions are based on price patterns only.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47834614108161922992007-07-04T10:41:00.000-07:002007-07-04T10:41:00.000-07:00"Tim, I can send you the chart if you want to pos"..."Tim, I can send you the chart if you want to pos"<BR/><BR/>Sure!Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2815617977677131862007-07-04T09:23:00.000-07:002007-07-04T09:23:00.000-07:00Glen,Just offer another opinion from thestreet.com...Glen,<BR/><BR/>Just offer another opinion from thestreet.com:<BR/><BR/> "There's not too much to say about today's session, even though there was a little buying ahead of the holiday," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC.<BR/><BR/>"Historically, the two days following the July 4th holiday haven't been positive for markets, so we could see profit-taking at the end of this week," he added. "Whatever traders that will be around will be focusing on Friday's important nonfarm payrolls report." <BR/><BR/>If someone tells me that Feb. 29 will be the strongest day for every leap year based on historical data, I still want to know: does that make sense?Andrew Daihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06136821974586603985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-91586267190321250982007-07-04T06:13:00.000-07:002007-07-04T06:13:00.000-07:00Andrew Dai,See Safehaven.com, Technical Market Rep...Andrew Dai,<BR/><BR/>See Safehaven.com, Technical Market Report by Mike Burk. He says his report is free to anyone who wants it, and I copy a section of it here:<BR/><BR/>Seasonality<BR/><BR/>Next week includes first 4 trading days of July during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.<BR/><BR/>The tables show the daily returns for the first 4 trading days of July during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. NASDAQ data covers the period from 1963 - 2003 and SPX data from 1931 - 2003. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. The SPX summary for all years combined begins with 1928.<BR/><BR/>During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 89% of the time and had an average gain of 1.57% making it one of the strongest weeks of the entire 4 year Presidential Cycle. The NASDAQ hasn't been too shabby either up 73% of the time with an average gain of 1.19%.<BR/><BR/>Over all years the SPX has been up 71% of the time with an average return of 0.90% while the OTC has been up 57% of the time with a very modestly negative average return of -0.01%. The OTC had two very bad years in 2001 (down 7.4%) and 2004 (down 4%) pushing its average return down.<BR/><BR/>First 4 days of July.<BR/>The number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.<BR/>The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;<BR/>1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.<BR/><BR/>OTC Presidential Year 3 <BR/>Year Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Totals <BR/>1963-3 -0.12% 1 -0.30% 2 0.30% 3 0.30% 5 0.18% <BR/> <BR/>1967-3 0.49% 1 -0.10% 3 0.17% 4 -0.01% 5 0.55% <BR/>1971-3 0.62% 4 0.28% 5 0.42% 2 0.71% 3 2.04% <BR/>1975-3 -0.79% 2 -0.80% 3 0.65% 4 -0.70% 1 -1.63% <BR/>1979-3 -0.83% 1 0.04% 2 0.55% 4 0.62% 5 0.38% <BR/>1983-3 0.90% 5 -1.38% 2 0.63% 3 -0.04% 4 0.11% <BR/>Avg 0.08% -0.39% 0.49% 0.12% 0.29% <BR/> <BR/>1987-3 -0.05% 3 0.33% 4 -0.18% 1 -0.13% 2 -0.03% <BR/>1991-3 1.13% 1 -0.53% 2 -0.93% 3 -0.06% 5 -0.38% <BR/>1995-3 0.12% 1 0.78% 3 1.18% 4 1.77% 5 3.84% <BR/>1999-3 0.77% 4 1.29% 5 -0.15% 2 0.23% 3 2.13% <BR/>2003-3 1.07% 2 2.35% 3 -0.91% 4 3.44% 1 5.95% <BR/>Avg 0.61% 0.85% -0.20% 1.05% 2.30% <BR/> <BR/>OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2003 <BR/>Averages 0.30% 0.18% 0.16% 0.56% 1.19% <BR/>% Winners 64% 55% 64% 55% 73% <BR/>MDD 7/7/1975 1.63% -- 7/5/1991 1.51% -- 7/5/1983 1.38% <BR/> <BR/>OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2006 <BR/>Averages 0.02% -0.16% 0.02% 0.12% -0.01% <BR/>% Winners 57% 52% 48% 52% 57% <BR/>MDD 7/6/2001 7.24% -- 7/2/2002 7.20% -- 7/7/1970 4.16% <BR/> <BR/>SPX Presidential Year 3 <BR/>Year Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Totals <BR/>1931-3 1.62% 3 -0.86% 4 2.14% 5 -1.05% 1 1.85% <BR/>1935-3 0.49% 1 0.10% 2 0.58% 3 1.16% 5 2.33% <BR/>1939-3 1.01% 6 0.27% 1 1.82% 3 -0.09% 4 3.02% <BR/>1943-3 0.08% 4 -0.08% 5 0.16% 6 0.00% 2 0.16% <BR/> <BR/>1947-3 1.64% 2 -0.13% 3 1.04% 4 0.06% 1 2.61% <BR/>1951-3 0.67% 1 0.62% 2 1.93% 4 0.00% 5 3.22% <BR/>1955-3 0.39% 5 1.21% 2 3.57% 3 -1.39% 4 3.79% <BR/>1959-3 0.86% 3 0.53% 4 0.62% 1 0.60% 2 2.61% <BR/>1963-3 -0.74% 1 0.87% 2 0.69% 3 0.40% 5 1.23% <BR/>Avg 0.56% 0.62% 1.57% -0.06% 2.69% <BR/> <BR/>1967-3 0.30% 1 0.49% 3 -0.04% 4 0.41% 5 1.15% <BR/>1971-3 0.08% 4 0.00% 5 -0.02% 2 0.28% 3 0.34% <BR/>1975-3 -0.36% 2 -0.71% 3 0.19% 4 -0.87% 1 -1.74% <BR/>1979-3 -0.89% 1 0.10% 2 0.33% 4 1.16% 5 0.70% <BR/>1983-3 0.48% 5 -1.37% 2 1.13% 3 -0.55% 4 -0.31% <BR/>Avg -0.08% -0.30% 0.32% 0.09% 0.03% <BR/> <BR/>1987-3 -0.35% 3 0.89% 4 -0.23% 1 0.81% 2 1.12% <BR/>1991-3 1.82% 1 -0.12% 2 -1.10% 3 0.20% 5 0.81% <BR/>1995-3 0.43% 1 0.03% 3 1.23% 4 0.43% 5 2.12% <BR/>1999-3 0.60% 4 0.74% 5 -0.22% 2 0.56% 3 1.68% <BR/>2003-3 0.80% 2 1.16% 3 -0.81% 4 1.90% 1 3.06% <BR/>Avg 0.66% 0.54% -0.23% 0.78% 1.76% <BR/> <BR/>SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1931 - 2003 <BR/>Averages 0.47% 0.20% 0.69% 0.21% 1.57% <BR/>% Winners 79% 63% 68% 63% 89% <BR/>MDD 7/7/1975 1.73% -- 7/7/1955 1.39% -- 7/5/1983 1.37% <BR/> <BR/>SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2006 <BR/>Averages 0.30% 0.25% 0.33% 0.04% 0.90% <BR/>% Winners 69% 61% 59% 58% 71% <BR/>MDD 7/2/2002 4.30% -- 7/6/2001 3.73% -- 7/7/1986 3.42%<BR/><BR/>The evidence is pretty convincing that Friday will be an up day. I just advocating a little patience here.Redfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02070132575343241279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-65630728711798652232007-07-04T05:55:00.000-07:002007-07-04T05:55:00.000-07:00Gary said... If everyone is aware of the COT then ...<EM>Gary said... <BR/>If everyone is aware of the COT then why do you keep ignoring what it's trying to tell you?</EM><BR/><BR/>Tell <B>you</B>, you mean, its an arbitrary assesment of data, not a proven formula.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><EM>" The markets are going up and the big money recognizes that."</EM><BR/><BR/>I thought the big money was the market, therefore they would be causing the market to go up not "recognizing" it?<BR/><BR/><BR/> <EM>"Sure you might be able to scalp a quick buck here and there on a few short trades.</EM><BR/><BR/>SNCR - [activation software co. for the IPHONE] july $30 calls, up 289% today, not a bad "scalp".<BR/><BR/><BR/> <EM>"What's the point when the easy money is going to be made on the long side."</EM><BR/><BR/>Not everyone here is a permabear.<BR/><BR/> <EM>"This is the time to use leverage (if you are so inclined) on any pullbacks. Look at gold and silver last year. Tell me how in the world you could make something like that fit to a trend line or pattern."</EM><BR/><BR/><BR/>I see a few tradable patterns in both charts actually. [ hindsight, I know] I actually have been saying I think SLV is breaking down and headed for $105-$110 area, based on the breakout to the downside. A retest of that triangle will tell if the BD is valid.<BR/><BR/><EM>"Wake up and smell the roses we have a great opportunity right now and we'll get a great opportunity on the short side in the future but you've got to give the bull a chance to play out. We need to see rampant optimism first before this bull can die and we are just not even close yet."</EM> <BR/><BR/>I completely agree here. But there will be corrections along the way, and tradable patterns throughout. Some like to trade , some don't, [i.e. you.], and you should just let us trade, and keep us informed of your take on the COT, periodically. <BR/><BR/>I actually do appreciate your opinion on the COT and markets [periodicaly] as just another veiw of the markets from what seems like an intelligent person, and and use that information, with a host of many, to determine <B>my</B> veiw of the markets.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08199870641869177070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-82866374248193382792007-07-03T23:08:00.000-07:002007-07-03T23:08:00.000-07:00Hard to believe people want to pay $500+ for the i...Hard to believe people want to pay $500+ for the iPhone even with the ridiculous activation and monthly service fees by AT&T, but they do. The margins for the iPhone is just eye popping. The mixed analyst sales expectations new on Monday might have gotten some big money short to only have to cover today in Apple. I believe it was Goldman who was bullish on the sales. Last year the talk was about Apple going to $100, now it should be is it going to $200?KC Equity Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08323405624986036337noreply@blogger.com