tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post314465310830110774..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: Poetry in MotionTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1427900261876958652007-06-25T07:55:00.000-07:002007-06-25T07:55:00.000-07:00And a long can only lose 100%, while in theory, a ...And a long can only lose 100%, while in theory, a short position can lose an infinite amount...<BR/><BR/>Gary - and please don't take this as a jab, I don't mean it that way at all. You say you don't use TA or charts, but isn't watching the COT report just another form of 'chart watching'?? I mean, aren't you really watching the 'chart' of the commercials' positions, rather than watching stock prices? I don't think you can fairly view it as 'fundamental' analysis, can you? Just curious as to what your thoughts might be, looking at it from that perspective.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-52897922816328524362007-06-25T07:40:00.000-07:002007-06-25T07:40:00.000-07:00I'll give you an example of why shorting is so har...I'll give you an example of why shorting is so hard. Lets say XYZ co. falls from $50 to $25. If you were short you made a 50% return on your investment. However if I wait until XYZ hits $25 and I buy instead and it goes back up to test the highs then I made 100% on my investment. The most a short can go down is 100%. But stocks can go up many 100's of %. The % are working against you when shorting. I did a little article on the smart money tracker on shorting a few weeks back. <BR/>http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2007/06/to-short-or-not-to-short-that-is.htmlGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-3514700444570187282007-06-25T07:39:00.000-07:002007-06-25T07:39:00.000-07:00Gary,Agreed - there is nothing wrong with getting ...Gary,<BR/><BR/>Agreed - there is nothing wrong with getting all of the odds on your side, if that's the way you choose to play it. For others, at times like this, they may be able to make money on both sides of the market at the same time. For instance, I'm still long energy but short the REITs. I don't look at the market as one big "market" - I see it as many different groups, some of which are in bull and/or bear markets all their own at different times. And I think that's why those who want to short stocks in this environment can be successful doing so, as long as they're smart about it - regardless of how the commercials are positioned in the major indices. There's always more than just one game in town, and that's why I believe it's up to every investor to find their own style and/or system and be comfortable with it. Take Tim, for instance - I suspect he's pretty capable of taking care of himself pretty well!<BR/><BR/>mspec,<BR/><BR/>Shorting can be hard because the market doesn't go down the same way it goes up. The declines tend to be steeper and more abrupt, and picking entry points in that environment is difficult - and I'm not saying I'm any good at it! On top of that, you are <I>always</I> fighting the longer-term push for stocks to go higher, since many more investors play the long side as opposed to the short side (and we won't even get into the effects of monetary policy, money supply, inflation, etc., that help to push up asset prices). Some of that may change with the advent of the inverse ETFs, as now folks can go 'short' by going 'long'.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-13309966315823606032007-06-25T06:36:00.000-07:002007-06-25T06:36:00.000-07:00Its funny, why is shorting so hard when the market...Its funny, why is shorting so hard when the market only closes higher 52% of the time (on the dow)???<BR/><BR/>Interesting study...for one to do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33939410100084311912007-06-25T06:19:00.000-07:002007-06-25T06:19:00.000-07:00Bmbull,yes but 3/4 of all stocks follow the genera...Bmbull,<BR/>yes but 3/4 of all stocks follow the general market trend. Might as well get as many odds on your side as you can. If the general market trend is down the odds of hitting your stops are a lot less even if you are trading a weak sector. Heck the housing sector bounced over 30% from July last year to Feb of this year. If you were short then the general market uptrend would have caused you to hit your stops and resulted in losing trades even though you were correct on your call. Shorting is tough I like to get as many odds on my side as possible before jumping to the dark side. LOLGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-84953605742830407102007-06-25T05:19:00.000-07:002007-06-25T05:19:00.000-07:00mspec,My point is that everybody's 'top' isn't the...mspec,<BR/><BR/>My point is that everybody's 'top' isn't the same, and not all stocks top at the same time. If you were long housing stocks, you'd have better recognized that your 'top' was nearly two years ago - you can't afford to wait for the Dow or S&P to signal a top while your individual stocks are rolling over.<BR/><BR/>It all depends upon how and what you trade, and not everyone trades the same way. Nor should they, for then there would be no market.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-59067856129934219962007-06-24T20:05:00.000-07:002007-06-24T20:05:00.000-07:00Gotta side with Gary, picking tops is a game that ...Gotta side with Gary, picking tops is a game that VERY FEW win...I'd be willing that less the 1% of 1% actually get the top. I'd rather catch 80% of a move to confirm my thinking is correct. Meaning I make sure that my opinion is confirmed by price movement before I act. If it is, yippee if not...cut my losses and move on.<BR/><BR/>I need another dose of Beanie11111 bull riding 101...<BR/><BR/>LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-82084378962644773112007-06-24T19:59:00.000-07:002007-06-24T19:59:00.000-07:00Ummm...CROX RS Line hitting new highs...downside v...Ummm...CROX RS Line hitting new highs...downside volume pales in comparison to the upside volume....<BR/>Sheesh Dgirl, patience.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-56931115500967056262007-06-24T18:04:00.000-07:002007-06-24T18:04:00.000-07:00Bmbull,Yes I do believe it will be an interesting ...Bmbull,<BR/>Yes I do believe it will be an interesting summer. I do think this bull is coming to an end. I'm just not willing to try and pick a top until I get the big money on my side. Look what happened in 99 to investors who tried to pick a top. YikesGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-32318695254623840322007-06-24T15:46:00.000-07:002007-06-24T15:46:00.000-07:00"For anybody who has been long this market you kno..."For anybody who has been long this market you know how hard it is to ride the bull and not get shaken off. Staying long in an overbought bull market is anything but easy."<BR/><BR/>Gary, I would agree - but the shorts could just as easily make the claim that it hasn't been an easy market to short either. A lot has depended upon <I>where</I> you were long, and where you were short. <BR/><BR/>As of right now, I just don't think you can really generalize about "the market". The major indices might be holding up, but under the surface, the tape is quite split. Energies, commodities, defense, some tech still doing well - for now - but many areas are rolling over, like housing, REITs, utilities, health care, and even the banks.<BR/><BR/>It should be an interesting summer.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-23445944445362283912007-06-24T15:14:00.000-07:002007-06-24T15:14:00.000-07:00Well they certainly got it right for the last 3 da...Well they certainly got it right for the last 3 days. However I don't trade for daily moves. I wouldn't know when to book profits. Entries are easy exits are tough. That's why I use the COT it gives me a clear exit. If the market consolidates and then heads higher then yes maybe the specs won the battle but usually the commercials will win the war. History says they win the war about 75% of the time.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-20523031413429176982007-06-24T15:07:00.000-07:002007-06-24T15:07:00.000-07:00Gary,I noticed the latest COT(June 19) on S&P500, ...Gary,<BR/><BR/>I noticed the latest COT(June 19) on S&P500, Dow are extreme bullish, that is, commercials increased longs (in S&P500) and changed from shorts to longs (Dow); and large spec did extact the opposite. Both are in large scale. And we had two more than 1% down day on Wed. and Fri. Is that possible this time large Spec got it right?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03624003458789468626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-65877362431381012402007-06-24T14:39:00.000-07:002007-06-24T14:39:00.000-07:00Tim,I come to the site for the interesting debate ...Tim,<BR/>I come to the site for the interesting debate not for the charts. Obviously I've found a system that works for me and I've learned my lesson enough times not to try and second guess it. I guess my goal per se for commenting is not only to answer questions that some of the other posters ask about the COT and other issues...if I know the answer. I don't neccesarily want to convert people to the COT. I would like to convert the permabears to a more rational trading strategy that can take advantage of both the ups and downs in the market. I realize that most people are very stubborn in their beliefs and won't change no matter what I or anyone else says. A few however do from time to time have an open mind and are willing to look at the oppostie view. I have once or twice let my emotions get the best of me and posted comments that were not worthy of myself directed at yourself and several other bears. My apologies. I assure you it won't happen again.<BR/><BR/>Bmbull,<BR/>I would have to disagree. The easy trade would be to short the market because of the obvious double top pattern. Also the short interest on the NYSE is at all time highs so I think there are way to many people trying to call a top in this market. For anybody who has been long this market you know how hard it is to ride the bull and not get shaken off. Staying long in an overbought bull market is anything but easy.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-31888480553887244322007-06-24T12:23:00.000-07:002007-06-24T12:23:00.000-07:00b.healed,Best guess is that SLB was involved in th...b.healed,<BR/><BR/>Best guess is that SLB was involved in the Russell index rebalancing.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-10529692077234436792007-06-24T12:00:00.000-07:002007-06-24T12:00:00.000-07:00wow, what is up with SLB that shot up $1.30 in the...wow, what is up with SLB that shot up $1.30 in the last two minutes of the trading day on friday?b.healedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02260459749154948981noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-33636288683059680902007-06-24T08:07:00.000-07:002007-06-24T08:07:00.000-07:00Whew.But contrary to many things on this board, it...Whew.<BR/><BR/>But contrary to many things on this board, it sounds like that analysis may be more fundamental in nature, rather than technical.<BR/><BR/>No matter. I'm really not interested in taking <I>that</I> trade...bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-82028496175770940602007-06-24T07:34:00.000-07:002007-06-24T07:34:00.000-07:00"And Tim, if you have personal experience with AJC..."And Tim, if you have personal experience with AJC's back hair, well, I pity you."<BR/><BR/>Happily, you need not. What I offered about AJC was, as with most things on this board, speculation based on applied reasoning.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2631876317065956862007-06-24T07:33:00.000-07:002007-06-24T07:33:00.000-07:00And Tim, if you have personal experience with AJC'...And Tim, if you have personal experience with AJC's back hair, well, I pity you.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-54922554878235128672007-06-24T07:30:00.000-07:002007-06-24T07:30:00.000-07:00At least from my perspective, I'm not trying to ba...At least from my perspective, I'm not trying to bash Gary and/or the COT. I was just asking for a little clarification on what seemed to be a confusing and/or inconsistent statement to me.<BR/><BR/>I didn't intend for it to taken as anything more than that.bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-50513816754058823012007-06-24T07:03:00.000-07:002007-06-24T07:03:00.000-07:00I want to jump in and say that I appreciate Gary's...I want to jump in and say that I appreciate Gary's information and opinions, and I'm not trying to make this into a cot-bashing fest.<BR/><BR/>Gary is - and I'm serious - one of the more thoughtful and intelligent posters to this board. And he stands his ground, which I respect, for obvious reasons. Someone who can stand up for a thoughtful position, even if I don't agree with it, is welcome on this board.<BR/><BR/>My own beef, which I expressed above, is at someone's dismissal of charting on a site that is dedicated to charting. Unless you are trying to get people to "convert" away from chartism to cotism, I'm not sure why you are wasting your time.<BR/><BR/>But, just to beat this point into the ground, people like Gary who want to express contrary points of view or other styles of trading are extremely welcome here.<BR/><BR/>People who post for no other reason than to perform ad hominem attacks are not.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-61376329326278206482007-06-24T06:09:00.000-07:002007-06-24T06:09:00.000-07:00"Is it any wonder that at market extremes the comm..."Is it any wonder that at market extremes the commercials are generally taking the opposite side of the "easy" trade."<BR/><BR/>Gary, you've told the group for weeks on end that trading with the commercials, ie, trading with the uptrend, has been the 'easy' trade, and questioning why others chose to try to fight it. Why now is the long side suddenly no longer considered the 'easy' trade? What's changed? According to you and the COT, nothing at all. And why, with the continued bullishness in the commercials, would you then term this a market 'extreme'? What's extreme about it?bmbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03848092038657309397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-69073335227352208462007-06-24T05:52:00.000-07:002007-06-24T05:52:00.000-07:00"so i am looking at 2 weekly chart for aapl and i ..."so i am looking at 2 weekly chart for aapl and i am coming into first hand experience now with the dramatic difference between log and normal scale charts. how on earth do you know which one to use? open to hear from anybody"<BR/><BR/>My opinion - - and this will make it simple - - log graphs all the time, period. There is never a reason - ever - to use arithmetic scaling (except for newspaper publishers that want to show scary or dramatic price moves).Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-34767627093658973222007-06-24T05:51:00.000-07:002007-06-24T05:51:00.000-07:00"Now you see why I don't pay that much attention t..."Now you see why I don't pay that much attention to charts and patterns. "<BR/><BR/>Then why on earth are you here several times a day? Honestly, I don't get it. This blog is dedicated to nothing <B>except</B> charts and patterns!<BR/><BR/>You are welcome as the flowers in spring, of course, but what you are doing is the equivalent of me hanging out at the Culture Club Fan Site all day long. It doesn't make any sense.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-77677132762028277072007-06-24T05:20:00.000-07:002007-06-24T05:20:00.000-07:00Now you see why I don't pay that much attention to...Now you see why I don't pay that much attention to charts and patterns. You can make them say just about whatever you want by just changing the x and y axis.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14556370683669428668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-21922647941968276862007-06-23T23:58:00.000-07:002007-06-23T23:58:00.000-07:00"phat" is now part of the dictionary!http://www.m-..."phat" is now part of the dictionary!<BR/>http://www.m-w.com/spell/phat.htmb.healedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02260459749154948981noreply@blogger.com