tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post1201313621746337117..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: Bulls Free to RunTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-63477426554613035032006-08-30T17:14:00.000-07:002006-08-30T17:14:00.000-07:00Tony,
I bought GLD for about a 5 pt play. Stop is...Tony,<br /><br />I bought GLD for about a 5 pt play. Stop is below the kangaroo reversal yesterday about 60.26.<br /><br />re: APPL short. No position, long or short. But it broke above the 26 week EMA about 6 weeks ago so by that standard, it wouldn't be a short to start with. When I look at the daily chart for the past month, I note that AAPL hasn't traded below the 50 DEMA. An ideal short is one where it rallies up to the 50 DEMA and reverses, meaning the bulls are outta gas. In this situation, the 20/50 DEMA are acting as support. Then the Average True Range is about 1.90. I like to set my stop about 1.5 the ATR so the stop would be about 3 bucks. Likely your position size would be smaller to offset the wider stop. A buck was way too tight unless trading off minute/hourly charts.<br /><br />I've had my share of trying to short what I call "elephants", stocks that haven't broke down but I just know will (GRIN). Problem with an elephant short is if you bag it, you make a ton. If you're wrong, be it early or bad entry price, the elephant runs you over.<br /><br />If your system for shorting is working for you, then maybe you just need to tighten it up a bit on selection, entry, stops, etc.<br /><br />good luck<br />bsi87Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-3560657940128040732006-08-30T16:37:00.000-07:002006-08-30T16:37:00.000-07:00Ron Sen, MD said...
Volatility expansion setting ...Ron Sen, MD said... <br />Volatility expansion setting up. Looking at the ratios of historical volatility 6day/100 day or 10 day/100 day < 0.5 the data:<br /><br />Dow 9/30<br />NDX 17/100<br />SPX 94/500<br />ETFs > 400K shares/day 20/48<br /><br />Total 140/678 (some overlap) <br /><br />4:33 PM <br /><br /><br /><br />what does this imply?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-27354534375874108032006-08-30T16:33:00.000-07:002006-08-30T16:33:00.000-07:00Volatility expansion setting up. Looking at the ra...Volatility expansion setting up. Looking at the ratios of historical volatility 6day/100 day or 10 day/100 day < 0.5 the data:<br /><br />Dow 9/30<br />NDX 17/100<br />SPX 94/500<br />ETFs > 400K shares/day 20/48<br /><br />Total 140/678 (some overlap)Ron Sen, MD, FCCPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02421945373895318335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-7001449652390208082006-08-30T16:15:00.000-07:002006-08-30T16:15:00.000-07:00MOT hit top of bollinger band on 20% more vol. Wha...MOT hit top of bollinger band on 20% more vol. Whats a girl ta do??Any feedback would be outstanding!When the last bear goes long the market will tank! thanks,ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-10826219564970251992006-08-30T16:11:00.000-07:002006-08-30T16:11:00.000-07:00Long BOOM.Long BOOM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-68044630644158827322006-08-30T15:17:00.000-07:002006-08-30T15:17:00.000-07:00by chart alone, energy stocks ready for bit of upw...by chart alone, energy stocks ready for bit of upward bounce<br /><a href="http://quote.prophet.net//applets/javachart/printGif.jsp?id=http://JUSTICE.prophet.net/TemporaryFiles/JavaCharts/78.1156976096330.print.gif&scope=prophetfinance&host=www.geocities.com&symbol=COP&duration=1y&frequency=d">Energy</a><br /><a href="http://quote.prophet.net//applets/javachart/printGif.jsp?id=http://COURAGE.prophet.net/TemporaryFiles/JavaCharts/103.1156976195945.print.gif&scope=prophetfinance&host=www.geocities.com&symbol=$INDU&duration=1y&frequency=d">DOW</a>chanonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08685393233531278278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-55457653887835700902006-08-30T14:19:00.000-07:002006-08-30T14:19:00.000-07:00When did Nenner speak? Is he predicting a market t...When did Nenner speak? Is he predicting a market turn starting on Tuesday?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-50219387233442202192006-08-30T14:10:00.000-07:002006-08-30T14:10:00.000-07:00bsi87: Yes, I realize my stops might be too tight...bsi87: Yes, I realize my stops might be too tight. But in most cases, I'm just unlucky.<br /><br />For example, I shorted AAPL at $66 with a stop at $67 as it was selling off (risk/reward of about 1:5) . It got down to $65.10, but then reversed and actually ended up almost in the green on the day. Then, after hours, there was an announcement about a new CEO or something, so the stock went back up over $67 and continued up over $68. Just plain bad luck.<br /><br />Then I tried some long trades, but got stopped out by mere pennies as the stocks spiked down below support in the morning, then eventually climbed back up and ended up well in the green on the day.<br /><br />Either way, you cannot possibly risk a whole lot of cash on trades in this market on either side, long or short. So, if I were to make money, it wouldn't be much. Likewise, when I lose money, it's not much. I've been playing the short side mostly, because if something of significance DOES happen in the markets, it's likely to be to the downside. Unfortunately, this endless drifting of the markets has gotten my trading all out of whack and I've been losing more than I'm winning.<br /><br />I'm just sort of biding my time until next week. At least we should see some direction then.<br /><br />If PCU gets some volume to the upside, I might consider taking out a long position. As it stands now, though, it's been drifting between $89 and $91 for almost a month. When some news hits, the stock might get back into play, then I'll start trading it again.<br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-19381164364642530112006-08-30T14:02:00.000-07:002006-08-30T14:02:00.000-07:00At this point it is strictly day-trading the energ...At this point it is strictly day-trading the energy sector and interest sensitive sectors. That is until last quarter begins (Oct). The possibilities of storm, Iran, Israel, Ben and China leaves every possibility open. Plus you have market makers and low-liquidity. EQUALS no trend. No point finding a trend, until a trend develops and end-of-year posturing begins for mutual funds. The only definite is fund managers want to be paid to look good by year-end, all other numbers are justifiable by somebody with bigger fanny packs. Tim, hope you still had those PUTS on the energy sector today. Still the best blog out there. <br />AlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-28577397979862664362006-08-30T13:55:00.000-07:002006-08-30T13:55:00.000-07:00I sold all my tech holdings over a year before the...I sold all my tech holdings over a year before the crash. I even began to wonder if I hadn't made a big bad mistake as the techs kept moving upward, ever upward, after I cashed out. <br /><br />I don't know enough (yet) to day trade, short, use options effectively, etc., etc. But I have a feeling that all the cash and short-term bonds that I'm now holding relative to everything else is going to pay off for me...sometime. <br /><br />Everything I read about investing -- and even trading! -- talks about patience. Maybe we could all use an infusion of it. <br /><br />And thanks, Tim, for this site, your comments and your charts. Love 'em!<br /><br />~ Nona<br /><br />PS: bsi87, I'm holding quite a bit of GLD. Thought about buying more today. Maybe I missed an opportunity....<br /><br />Thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-78581182221905894462006-08-30T13:22:00.000-07:002006-08-30T13:22:00.000-07:00Tony,
Remember the Triple Screen.
1) 1st time fr...Tony,<br /><br />Remember the Triple Screen. <br />1) 1st time frame is the longest, using an MA to determine trend.<br />2) 2nd time frame used to see the stock/ETF trading near 20 or 50 DEMA for support, watching for reversal signs.<br />3) 3rd time frame is hourly, trying to buy in lower 1/3 of the range or sell in the top 1/3 of the range.<br /><br />If you're getting stopped out, you're not buying at the right price and/or your stop is not based on volatility, hence it's too tight. <br /><br />re:PCU. I'm not thinking about fundies. They can mess up a good trade. (GRIN) It looks like a nice setup and my risk is a buck for about 11 pts upside.<br /><br />re: GLD. Yeah, I bought it. Again, it's about a buck risk for 5 pts upside. <br /><br />bsi87bsi87https://www.blogger.com/profile/09488756959358456600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-85192701405422691422006-08-30T13:19:00.000-07:002006-08-30T13:19:00.000-07:00Trader, looking at the sentiment on this board - i...Trader, looking at the sentiment on this board - it looks as though the bears have given up. I wonder what that portends for the market . .<br /><br />Before the rally on 8/14, I remember reading this board and the bears running rampant here.<br /><br />Anyway, if anything this proves how hard it is to position yourself correctly when people are partying it up at the top or bottom.izardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15194657189580812239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-27874117870010899412006-08-30T13:00:00.000-07:002006-08-30T13:00:00.000-07:00Tony 12:38 good post. Sometimes i dont know if yo...Tony 12:38 good post. Sometimes i dont know if your bullish or bearish or right down the middle. This market to me is just oo boring to even watch yet I sit and watch it anyway. A bulk of my portfolio makes up QID and SDS so on days like today I usually stay in the red. Volume is slowing, a short term top may be here but I think if there is any pullback of 1-3% people will be buying it right back up without a problem. <br /><br /><br /><br />Vince<br /><br />Agree, I think everyone has forgotten what a down day looks like. Look at EBAY, AMZN, DELL, INTC, BRCM, NVDA and RMBS. All of them up between 1-5%. If i had long positions in these stocks and was up 5%,10%, 15% or even 20% i would be taking profits. I cannot even come close to buying AMZN at $30.50 when just last week it was $27. Know my luck ill go long and everything will just fall apart. Ill stick with my positions and wait patiently for the next drop. I just dont see a straight run into the end of 2006, im nearly positive we are going to get a drop of at least 5% sometime over the next 3 months. How things will look next week when volume comes back is a whole other story.<br /><br />Trader 2006Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-34197511461832253282006-08-30T12:46:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:46:00.000-07:00Tony, you're absolutely correct. In any case, we'r...Tony, you're absolutely correct. In any case, we're due for a reaction next week, since I think they're going to hold up the market this week as long as they can.izardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15194657189580812239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-86948799486427825222006-08-30T12:41:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:41:00.000-07:00I agree with Costas. Great post and insight.
It s...I agree with Costas. Great post and insight.<br /><br />It seems like everyone has forgotten what a down day looks like - we have very short memory spans. It was really just 3 weeks ago that nobody wanted to go long.<br /><br />Looking at this week's action, I wouldn't expect any less of the market. If we're going to have a decline, they have to spike it up before hand. Otherwise it would too easy.izardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15194657189580812239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-81334618970644176292006-08-30T12:38:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:38:00.000-07:00Tim, I must admit that I don't know what you're ta...Tim, I must admit that I don't know what you're talking about regarding the September setup. I agree with whoever said this was perfect.<br /><br />Upward drift, ultra-low volume, bearish rising wedge formation on the indices (the S&P at least), and declining volume as we get closer to the top. Institutions have NOT been selling during this latest run. They have been buying very cautiously, but nothing spectacular. Once they turn on the faucets and start selling, look out below. Plus, you can see the "churn" at the top here around 11,380 on the Dow. Lots of movement, but not much progress being made.<br /><br />It just doesn't get any better than this, really.<br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-2624807772985785382006-08-30T12:22:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:22:00.000-07:00eddiefl
Im one of the past posters who admitted ne...eddiefl<br />Im one of the past posters who admitted never using stops. Needless to say Im now totally pulverised and my spreadbetting company is due to rake in several thousand pounds profit when mid Sept expiry comes along. You see, I know that if I had used stops, I would simply have rentered at any little sign of a daily downturn in order to try and recoup my losses. So I dont think Id be much better off than having stuck with my losses by not having stops. Also, as I tried to point out before, I am counter balancing some of the loss by going long at the same time. However as I said the net result is a disaster. However, I havnt complained on this site and am hoping that Oct proves everything that it should, but I have to say at the present rate, I have my doubts. So for the next trading period, I MAY only go long, in which case I can guarantee the market will go the opposite way and plunge. But will you all thank me by send a donation for doing that? Hummm?!! Even as I type Im watching the index run ever higherdownosedivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10330098599116167405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1354870080724171552006-08-30T12:09:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:09:00.000-07:00AMZN and EBAY both up over a dollar each on no new...AMZN and EBAY both up over a dollar each on no news, and Nasdaq up only by about 10. Strange! AMZN is just a retailer - why does it merit such high p/e compared to WMT, TGT and COST?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-34015439022593799102006-08-30T12:08:00.000-07:002006-08-30T12:08:00.000-07:00bsi87: I like PCU. I was actually going to go lo...bsi87: I like PCU. I was actually going to go long at $90, but then I took a look at the recent price action and decided against it. Pretty much the basic materials sector has been left for dead. As spot prices continue to drop and production ramps down (mainly due to the housing industry slowdown), I can see some earnings disappointments for all of the producers. I do love the divy, but beyond that, I'm afraid there could be some 5-10% plummets in the future for that stock, so I'm staying away.<br /><br />Anyways, did you ever grab that $60.90 GLD position? I saw it dropping yesterday and decided against taking out a new long position on GLD. I'm going to wait for the breakout. I get the feeling that 99% of the gold traders out there are waiting for the same thing, so it should be a rocket once it crosses the upper trendline, which is now around $645, I believe.<br /><br />Yeah, I reduced my position size, but then found that I'm still getting stopped out on trades, mainly because I'm too afraid that the markets will continue to push higher on no news. I guess I could REALLY cut them back and open up the stops, but then I'd need like a 10%+ decline on a short position just to make any money at all. Hardly worth it in this market.<br /><br />I'm going to wait for next week to see what the big boys are going to do. A nice distribution day on Tuesday or Wednesday would really start the ball rolling to the downside. If I miss out on a 2% move while I'm waiting, then so be it.<br /><br />Good luck.<br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-89089707097566125172006-08-30T11:54:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:54:00.000-07:00Hasn't oil gone positive and now back above 70 Tim...Hasn't oil gone positive and now back above 70 Tim ?<br /><br />DenverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47779346553871086422006-08-30T11:47:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:47:00.000-07:00Don't get me wrong. I'm not a bull. Heaven forbid....Don't get me wrong. I'm not a bull. Heaven forbid. I'm just saying there's not a lot holding them back.<br /><br />My portfolios are actually doing dandy today, since oil is getting so beat up. Huzzah!Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-67042092131832892442006-08-30T11:36:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:36:00.000-07:00Closing OIH short.
MACD is diverging. I thought ...Closing OIH short. <br /><br />MACD is diverging. I thought when it broke 134, it'd go on down but it's moving back above 135 and the volume wasn't heavy like yesterday. I'll look to reopen the short around 141-143. Too many oil bears for me.<br /><br />bsi87Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-60333263125316911182006-08-30T11:31:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:31:00.000-07:00Oil back up, very interesting....wouldnt be supris...Oil back up, very interesting....wouldnt be suprised it trades to $72 next week.<br /><br />Trader 2006Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-12996654433540007272006-08-30T11:19:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:19:00.000-07:00Sanjay, I see a break from a resistnace of around ...Sanjay, I see a break from a resistnace of around 49, but volume is pretty dull considering...stockshakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10038114175740151965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-44906552238540546972006-08-30T11:13:00.000-07:002006-08-30T11:13:00.000-07:00Hey Tony, I think you pointed it out, if not, sorr...Hey Tony, I think you pointed it out, if not, sorry for not giving recog. to who did.<br /><br />I really liked HAL for some puts, but I also sold some really overpriced puts just now, Look at Septmber 32.5 - I sold mine for 0.55 a peice. Looks like a REALLY good deal (to sell)! Especially since expiration friday is all but two weeks away.stockshakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10038114175740151965noreply@blogger.com