tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post115377708923710034..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: The Voice of ReasonTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153876916317289512006-07-25T18:21:00.000-07:002006-07-25T18:21:00.000-07:00All about earnings this week and weeks ahead, S&P ...All about earnings this week and weeks ahead, S&P forcast it would be better than expected, like 1% better. short term, trendline could be broken easily, if big cap earnings continued to be good.<BR/><BR/>just look how green the earnings board<BR/><A HREF="http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Active/PrintPage/PrintPage.aspx?PageId=163" REL="nofollow">Earnings</A><BR/><BR/>scalping up intraday industry leader seem to work for me, got some X and RS (metal fabrication) today when touches lower bollinger band, goodluck everyone<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/l/pip.html" REL="nofollow">Leaders</A>chanonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08685393233531278278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153870872408695802006-07-25T16:41:00.000-07:002006-07-25T16:41:00.000-07:00CONGRATS to everyone who made $$$ on NTRI, AMZN......CONGRATS to everyone who made $$$ on NTRI, AMZN....and the other 10 stocks that suffered some massive whackkage (new word) today:.<BR/><BR/>This up move is a bit ridiculous. How many companies missed today??? How many said the economy is slowing? how many guided down??? <BR/><BR/>SBUX is looking expensive here, and technically it doesn't look to hot. Someone is trying to hold it up though........ They reported weaker then expected June sales and have an insanely expensive multiple. I think they will guide down on their next earnings and take a haircut for not delivering the growth that is in its PE. <BR/><BR/>The consumer is tapped out...<BR/><BR/>GOOG.... I don't think the click fraud charge is baked into Google's estimates. When they get dinged for a minimum of 100 Mil...the stock will get hammered. Plus change of trend- the 50 and 200 day are about to cross.<BR/><BR/>Good Luck!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153869188608603422006-07-25T16:13:00.000-07:002006-07-25T16:13:00.000-07:00im takin detroit over 9.5, arizona +10, mets under...im takin detroit over 9.5, arizona +10, mets under 8, and toronto under 8, i feel better about these investments than i do about wondering which way this market is going! huricane , before you jump , try these plays ,get in where you fit in! goodluck all! Help Tim ??? <BR/><BR/>ChronictownAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153867792685306802006-07-25T15:49:00.000-07:002006-07-25T15:49:00.000-07:00Wow, what a bait that's been thrown out to the bul...Wow, what a bait that's been thrown out to the bulls today! Buy now before prices go higher. I'm guessing there is 100-150 points upsdie on the Dow before the next downleg begins. There is deterioration galore in the mkts right now. Sell if you haven't already!<BR/><BR/>- Frank the TankAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153865557335956282006-07-25T15:12:00.000-07:002006-07-25T15:12:00.000-07:00Who else is looking at AMZN after the close? Down...Who else is looking at AMZN after the close? Down over 11%.<BR/>Just bought a put on that one at yesterday's high :)<BR/><BR/>I'm pretty much a novice with all this stuff, and historically, a big-time bull, but it seems painfully obvious to me that there's no way the market will be moving up for at least the next few months -- there's just too much going wrong and very little going right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153864801417966362006-07-25T15:00:00.000-07:002006-07-25T15:00:00.000-07:00Patience is a bear's biggest asset...Patience is a bear's biggest asset...Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11160401306650990823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153862238351796032006-07-25T14:17:00.000-07:002006-07-25T14:17:00.000-07:00GDP will = big rally or big failure.i hope for FAI...GDP will = big rally or big failure.<BR/><BR/>i hope for FAILURE<BR/><BR/>DIE MARKET DIEAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153862165737838312006-07-25T14:16:00.000-07:002006-07-25T14:16:00.000-07:00the market has some serious issues to deal with al...the market has some serious issues to deal with all the money is moving to defensive names. the biggest earnings are coming from XOM, COP, anything energy and the likes .... anyone hear jack from IRAN recently ??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153861768164765702006-07-25T14:09:00.000-07:002006-07-25T14:09:00.000-07:00more fed money injected --> election year you know...more fed money injected --> election year you know.<BR/><BR/>would not surprise me if the fed jacks this thing up another two hundred points. the problem is keeping it there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153859373362866582006-07-25T13:29:00.000-07:002006-07-25T13:29:00.000-07:00OMG- what am I supposed to do with these OIH and E...OMG- what am I supposed to do with these OIH and EOG puts? Holy moly. My money is going UP the tubes...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153858904418763872006-07-25T13:21:00.000-07:002006-07-25T13:21:00.000-07:00i am trying to find the volume that drove it upi am trying to find the volume that drove it upAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153858851848920332006-07-25T13:20:00.000-07:002006-07-25T13:20:00.000-07:00yeah program trading or not the MARKET IS HIGHER.....yeah program trading or not the MARKET IS HIGHER.... phuck.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153858450780431082006-07-25T13:14:00.000-07:002006-07-25T13:14:00.000-07:00it was program buying all 101% of it...complete he...it was program buying all 101% of it...complete headfake....short at dow 11250+ and nasdaq 2100++Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153857933224036032006-07-25T13:05:00.000-07:002006-07-25T13:05:00.000-07:00short AMZNshort AMZNAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153856885318992472006-07-25T12:48:00.000-07:002006-07-25T12:48:00.000-07:00this is program buying, they are injecting a ton ...this is program buying, they are injecting a ton of money into this market to keep it floating higher. This is even better for shorts. I cant trade at the moment. Switching brokers hopefully by monday or tuesay i will be able to pick up some more shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153856876331770652006-07-25T12:47:00.001-07:002006-07-25T12:47:00.001-07:00this is program buying, they are injecting a ton ...this is program buying, they are injecting a ton of money into this market to keep it floating higher. This is even better for shorts. I cant trade at the moment. Switching brokers hopefully by monday or tuesay i will be able to pick up some more shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153856862704896192006-07-25T12:47:00.000-07:002006-07-25T12:47:00.000-07:00this is program buying, they are injecting a ton ...this is program buying, they are injecting a ton of money into this market to keep it floating higher. This is even better for shorts. I cant trade at the moment. Switching brokers hopefully by monday or tuesay i will be able to pick up some more shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153856763616949202006-07-25T12:46:00.000-07:002006-07-25T12:46:00.000-07:00markets headed higher again, another few more days...markets headed higher again, another few more days in rally mode and then the sell-off begins.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153856742779100782006-07-25T12:45:00.000-07:002006-07-25T12:45:00.000-07:00Holy crap, every index is going vertical.Can't qui...Holy crap, every index is going vertical.<BR/><BR/>Can't quite figure it out. The bulk of the day was spent in a low-volume trading range and in fact was in the red for most of the day.<BR/><BR/>One hour to go, and the market shoots up 80 points. Amazing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153854231245858842006-07-25T12:03:00.000-07:002006-07-25T12:03:00.000-07:00Brian, you can't just look at absolute numbers and...Brian, you can't just look at absolute numbers and draw conclusions of percentage declines based on ONE market crash.<BR/><BR/>You have to understand that, fundamentally, the S&P was trading at a tremendously high P/E ratio in 1999. So, a decline of 50% from a level that was overvalued by 100% is only returning the index to "fair value."<BR/><BR/>The only thing keeping stocks up at current levels is market sentiment and investor confidence. Period. If confidence declines, so does the market. The P/E ratio will reflect that. In typical bear market bottoms, the P/E of the S&P was around 8-10. Now we're right around 15. So if the bears really take charge, we could see a 30% decline in the S&P (along with the other indices as well).<BR/><BR/>Bottom line is that market sentiment right now is NOT favoring a higher valuation than a multiple of 15 or so. Even if we stretch it and say that the S&P500 deserves a P/E of 16 or 17, that's only a 10% upside. But as I said, the downside is 30% or more.<BR/><BR/>-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153849649807185442006-07-25T10:47:00.000-07:002006-07-25T10:47:00.000-07:00"So, you're expecting a 96% drop in the S&P? That ..."So, you're expecting a 96% drop in the S&P? That would probably put the GDP of the USA around the level of Somalia. I like to keep an open mind, but let's just say this scenario is somewhat improbable."<BR/><BR/>Sorry if I was misunderstood. I wasn't actually calling S&P 50, and I definitely agree this scenario is improbable, to say the least. I was just pointing out the technical measurements of a potential double top is still a long way from completion (if it even turns into that at all). <BR/><BR/>But I honestly don't see how the markets could lose 95% to 100% of their value, even if this huge double top were to form. But this extreme measurement illustrates the huge bearish potential of the long term market situation. We don't need to get anywhere near S&P 50 before seeing some major carnage. <BR/><BR/>But then again, the S&P did half it's value from 2000 to the end of 2002. And it lost more than 80% of it's value from 1930 to 1932. It also lost more than half it's value between 1937 and 1942. So again, I'm not calling S&P 50. Just observing this is what the technical measurement suggests...based on a pattern which is FAR from complete (and which may also evolve into something bullish, like continuation triangle).<BR/><BR/>I'm not that much of a bear anyway. But it's a sobering possibility, no matter how improbable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153844834048238422006-07-25T09:27:00.000-07:002006-07-25T09:27:00.000-07:00why is Uso down ?why is Uso down ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153837736747767132006-07-25T07:28:00.000-07:002006-07-25T07:28:00.000-07:00NTRI has lost 16% of its value so far today. How i...NTRI has lost 16% of its value so far today. How it's going to nail that $120 price target ("guaranteed" by hurricane5) is quite beyond my capacity.<BR/><BR/>You notice how the bulls on this are pointing out that it's just because the COO/CEO is leaving?<BR/><BR/>What if the stock was UP 16% and we bears were saying it was just because a hot new COO/CEO was coming in? Can you imagine the stink they'd be throwing? As well they should, since the price movement is all that matters.<BR/><BR/>Sheesh.Tim Knighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153833541522449982006-07-25T06:19:00.000-07:002006-07-25T06:19:00.000-07:00"We're still in a nice succession of lower highs a..."We're still in a nice succession of lower highs and lower lows since the May 10th peak." That's incorrect, and your own chart shows it on the $SPX with the July low being ABOVE the June low. It looks like a "W" bottom to me.<BR/><BR/>My money's where my mouth is, I was 112% long yesterday morning. This morning I'm trimming the sails to 100% long (give or take some small change in the account). <BR/><BR/>I don't know if last week was the final test of the lows, but I think it may be. I see a triangle pattern on the $SPX 6-month chart and expect to see it broken to the upside.nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-1153832801063875142006-07-25T06:06:00.000-07:002006-07-25T06:06:00.000-07:00Trader Tim,The media has recently reported that th...Trader Tim,<BR/><BR/>The media has recently reported that the percentage of bears versus bulls is at a very high level, but I also see that the VIX is near all-time lows. This seems totally contradictory to me and I just can't make any sense of it. Do you think that investors are just saying their bearish, but that they are still actually invested and expect the market to go up anyway? You're take on this is greatly appreciated. LSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com