Wednesday, October 11, 2006

La De Da

It seems a tiny passenger plane accidentally running into an apartment building has more import to the world financial markets than a crazed dictator with nuclear arms. Go figure.

I thought we had 'em today, but the plunge protectors (or whoever.....) pushed most of the losses off the Dow. Phooey.

I had a great day with Legg Mason (LM) and, generally speaking, things were pretty good. I humbly offer up a few suggestions for shorts/puts, simply because I'll never wise up........

Alcan (AL), a lovely head and shoulders pattern....


Alexandria Real Estate - - many REITs have similar charts (symbol ARE):


Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), a nice Fib setup:


Lehman (LEH):


Nike (NKE) way at the top of what looks like a massive distribution:


Textron (TXT):

Nothing to say about the markets that I haven't already said. Best of luck to ya.

14 comments:

r said...

Fantastic. I heard Cramer loves Alcan and is a little bitter about Alcoa missing earnings. Charts don't lie, Alcan is next. Down elevator.

chronictown said...

Smallswinger, Ive been drilled by my $rut puts. I hope this baby falls by the 21st. You see that is my problem...Sitting here wishing.

Doug said...

can ALCAN get close to 35 by the end of OCT expiration?? i see the contracts going for a nickel, those things can go up 20X's if it gets hit hard

Tim Knight said...

Wow, you guys are holding October puts! Now THAT is gambling! And remember index puts expire on the 19th, so your problem is even worse.

stockshaker said...

Anyone else looking at going long on housing? Its sustaining its bullish levels.

Im thinking about it! MTH looks like a really good bullish setup.

Anonymous said...

Hi Tim,

I have been reading your blog for a while. Your blog is clear and conscience to counter all ingrained bullish bias that always assumes the stock market always goes up. I have a question. Do you have any opinion on the current high number of open puts (some say historically high) held by small traders? Likewise the large commercial traders hold long positions. This is supposed to bullish because the commercial traders are so called “smart money.” The commercial traders certainly have much more capital to trade with so unless they become bearish in their positions it may be difficult for the market to decline substantially. This is, of course, all according to the theory. Your opinion of this theory would be appreciated. Anyone else is welcome to discuss this theory as well.

Thanks,
Michael

downosedive said...

As my previous posts, DOW will hit 12100 to 12200 within the next 2/3 weeks, then fall back maybe to 11700 intraday low, before bouncing back to its previous high by year end.
The current bullishness is exactly the same strength of conviction as in 1987. The difference this time is that the correction im predicting, is simply that and not a crash. I think there is another 3 months to 6 months of upward movement

STOCKSBYSAMMY said...

Ok Tim, I had to short PNRA today at 67.50, could'nt resist. I know I said PNRA was a bad short (trust me from experience) but this pig should fall soon. Placed stops at 69.50. Expect the DOW to fall from the 12925 area to 11500-11400 then make one more trip up to 12000. That's how I,m setting up my trades. Also, I think gold should bounce to 615-625. Keep up the great work. Sam.

Andrew Wright said...

I swear I just heard GDP growth of 1.1% revised for the 3rd quarter????

1.1 is really bad correct? Especially if earnings are next week!

Andrew Wright said...

They are running the market up heading towards the beige book. The fed should whack the market with a rate hike.......

Andrew Wright said...

Errrr....there is no volume today....anemic. Look at your stock list and look at volume???HMMMM.....

Nimesh said...

AT, what r u talking about. They going to hit 12000 today!!! Another day, another loss for me.

Nimesh said...

Tim, what is the stop on COF? Thanks

Al_K said...

This is like watching someone building a house of cards. Everyday another card is added and the house just does a little wobble. We all know what will happen when the weight of the cards get too much or an unexpected wind comes along.

Al K